Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Whileee]

I believe you are right here, but for reference could you compare the amount of d-zones starts for Scheifele vs. Namestnikov, because I am sure that is a factor in goals against. Are EN GA a factor too?

That's 5v5 and doesn't include EN.

5v5 offensive zone starts (via Natural Stat Trick):

Scheifele: 67.4%
Namestnikov: 65.3%
Lowry: 41.6%

 

[Buffdog]

Sure. But I expect more consistency from him and he showed he could do it over a half a season stretch.

That gives the team more flexibility knowing they don't need Fly to drive a second scoring line.

I expect politics to result in the KC/Mark/Vilardi line to start the year, but they shouldn't be married to it of the results aren't there as they haven't been for a while now.

Wins are the only result that truly matter

 

[Whileee]

Only in Winnipeg could your top line center finish +19, highest of all centers, and be considered a crappy line.

That's because Scheifele has a very positive goal differential (5v5) without Connor, and together they are just about even. Conversely, overall Connor is below 50% in goal differential, and just about even with Scheifele.

Table below from Evolving Hockey.

Wins are the only result that truly matter

Well, of course. But if the Jets deployed their top forwards more effectively, I think they wouldn't have to rely as much on goaltending to get the wins. The problem is that if the Jets' goalies (or shooters) ever go into a bit of a slump, the Jets have crashed hard in the past couple of seasons. I think that could be remedied if they had better forward line deployment in the top 6 and improved their special teams (especially the PK).

 

[voyageur]

You can look at the lines goals either on natural stat trick or money puck.

I usually don't but I did in this case... The proposed top line was a break even line on one site, and -2 on the other, for gf/ga. I assume MP to be correct with its calculations. Why the discrepancy though? Reading through the info, the only other lines on the whole team that played regularly, more than a spot shift, that was outscored was the KC/Scheifele line with Namestnikov...And Kupari too had a couple of minuses on his resume, with different combinations, but they are modest, 0-1's. As a team I think that is remarkable. Playoffs top line was a +2 differential 5 on 5 but Lowry's line couldn't handle Mackinnon. Answers my question about EN goals though.

 

[Buffdog]

That's because Scheifele has a very positive goal differential (5v5) without Connor, and together they are just about even. Conversely, overall Connor is below 50% in goal differential, and just about even with Scheifele.

Table below from Evolving Hockey.

View attachment 901291


Well, of course. But if the Jets deployed their top forwards more effectively, I think they wouldn't have to rely as much on goaltending to get the wins. The problem is that if the Jets' goalies (or shooters) ever go into a bit of a slump, the Jets have crashed hard in the past couple of seasons. I think that could be remedied if they had better forward line deployment in the top 6 and improved their special teams (especially the PK).

Some people would say that by having an elite goaltender, you don't have to rely on your top line crushing all their matchups

 

[KingBogo]

That's because Scheifele has a very positive goal differential (5v5) without Connor, and together they are just about even. Conversely, overall Connor is below 50% in goal differential, and just about even with Scheifele.

Table below from Evolving Hockey.

View attachment 901291


Well, of course. But if the Jets deployed their top forwards more effectively, I think they wouldn't have to rely as much on goaltending to get the wins. The problem is that if the Jets' goalies (or shooters) ever go into a bit of a slump, the Jets have crashed hard in the past couple of seasons. I think that could be remedied if they had better forward line deployment in the top 6 and improved their special teams (especially the PK).

So what do you see as the optimal deployment of the forward lines?

 

[voyageur]

That's 5v5 and doesn't include EN.

5v5 offensive zone starts (via Natural Stat Trick):

Scheifele: 67.4%
Namestnikov: 65.3%
Lowry: 41.6%

Ok thank you...I was just trying to figure out matchups...Because I would imagine any coach would have kept Namestnikov away from DZ matchups, on account of faceoffs. And I suspect the fact he played more 4th line in a somewhat defensive role, that the 2nd line that is being lauded hardly played in the d-zone...I know Monahan picked up more d-zone draws when he became 2C. Which probably increased Scheifele's offensive zone time, and kind of makes that rough stretch where his line was being badly outscored seem worse.

 

[Whileee]

So what do you see as the optimal deployment of the forward lines?

First principle is playing Ehlers with Scheifele (or separating Connor and Scheifele). Ehlers has tended to offset Connor's negatives on that line over the past couple of years, and it will be hard to break up the Connor-Scheifele duo.

Second principle is adding more offense to Lowry's line to make it a shut-down line that can also score a bit more.

Here's an example...

Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers
Nino-Lowry-Vilardi
Perfetti-Namestnikov-Iafallo/Lambert
Barron-Kupari-Appleton/Iafallo

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'll stay firmly on the Namestnikov bandwagon for the 2-3 C slot. It seems that Arniel likes him there, too. Maybe Arniel and the coaches are looking at the data to project him in that role.

Last season at 5v5 the lines centered by Lowry and Namestnikov were a combined +20 in goals and +16 in expected goals. When Namestnikov centered the 2/3 line the Jets were +10 in goals and +5 in expected goals, despite playing about half as much as Scheifele and Lowry at 5v5. In contrast, lines including Scheifele and Connor were -1 in goals and -8 in expected goals at 5v5.

Below is a quick graphic that shows how the Jets top 3 lines fared last season in GF% and xGF% (with time on ice as the bubble size).

My overall conclusion is that the Jets are fine in the middle-6 with Lowry and Namestnikov anchoring those lines. They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele.

View attachment 901218

"They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele."

That problem has existed for years under several coaches. The solution is right in front of them and yet they refuse it. I hope Arniel is finally the coach who will, but I'm not optimistic.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I guess my point is the org has wasted a lot of assets on mediocre options to patch the hole. Do I think Copp and Roslovic are legit 2C's on a contender, no I don't. But outside of Dubois we have been wasting assets on vets that didn't meet that criteria either. We would have gained more as an org keeping those assets and going with in house options that weren't any worse then the vets we brought in. That's where I'm guestioning this orgs ability to properly assess center talent and to develop it. Yeah Copp wouldn't have been my first choice but he would have been miles better the Eakins for crying out loud and likely comparable to 35 plus year old Stastny.

Copp did well with NYR because he had excellent wingers. He could have had excellent wingers playing 2C for Jets too. He would not have been the driver on the line. But he could have been what those wingers needed, steady, good on the dot, defensively strong, go to the net, etc.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

So I'll say it for the 1000th time...

I think that the org thinks that Ehlers does well enough away from Schief that the "top two" lines are better balanced the way they are

In other words, putting Ehlers on a line with Schief makes that line better, but makes the "second" line "more worse" lol

Doesn't matter how many times you repeat it. If that is what "the org" thinks they need to change their way of thinking.

Swapping KC and Nik not only makes the 1st line better, it might very well make the 2nd line better too, or at least equal.

It has been staring them in the face for years.

 

[Whileee]

"They need to solve the 1st line problem with Connor-Scheifele."

That problem has existed for years under several coaches. The solution is right in front of them and yet they refuse it. I hope Arniel is finally the coach who will, but I'm not optimistic.

One option is to elevate Ehlers to play with Connor and Scheifele and re-assign Vilardi to play RW with either Namestnikov or Lowry.

Ehlers adds transition speed and capability and disruptive offensive zone movement that helps Connor and Scheifele from being too predictable and easy to counter. Ehlers is also very good at back-pressure to help on the defensive side.

2023-24, 5v5 metrics (from Evolving Hockey):

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Actually I’d be very open to a Perfetti Scheifele Ehlers line. I just don’t see Perfetti as being the line driver, but more of a play maker that takes advantage of the open space created by a true line driver like Ehlers.

I would still prefer KC with Perfetti and Names. I think THAT is the more balanced config. That leaves Vilardi with Scheif and I think that works well until the inevitable Vilardi injury.

But if Perf - Scheif - Ehlers breaks up the KC - Scheif problem, I'm all for that too.

 

[Jack7222]

Actually I’d be very open to a Perfetti Scheifele Ehlers line. I just don’t see Perfetti as being the line driver, but more of a play maker that takes advantage of the open space created by a true line driver like Ehlers.

Man I've been hoping to see this line for two years now. I think it would be very good.

 

[WaveRaven]

Connor Schief Ehlers brought to you by Perimeter Concrete. Call us for all you're concrete needs.

 

[WolfHouse]

Copp did well with NYR because he had excellent wingers. He could have had excellent wingers playing 2C for Jets too. He would not have been the driver on the line. But he could have been what those wingers needed, steady, good on the dot, defensively strong, go to the net, etc.

Copp between Ehlers and Connor would have worked really well

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

First principle is playing Ehlers with Scheifele (or separating Connor and Scheifele). Ehlers has tended to offset Connor's negatives on that line over the past couple of years, and it will be hard to break up the Connor-Scheifele duo.

Second principle is adding more offense to Lowry's line to make it a shut-down line that can also score a bit more.

Here's an example...

Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers
Nino-Lowry-Vilardi
Perfetti-Namestnikov-Iafallo/Lambert
Barron-Kupari-Appleton/Iafallo

I'd have Gus at 4C over Kupari. If Kup is not much improved he might be waived. Minor thing though.

 

[objectiveposter]

One option is to elevate Ehlers to play with Connor and Scheifele and re-assign Vilardi to play RW with either Namestnikov or Lowry.

Ehlers adds transition speed and capability and disruptive offensive zone movement that helps Connor and Scheifele from being too predictable and easy to counter. Ehlers is also very good at back-pressure to help on the defensive side.

2023-24, 5v5 metrics (from Evolving Hockey):

View attachment 901447

ehlers scheif connor will get shut down in the playoffs... those regular season advanced stats are useless in the playoffs.

 

[robertocarlos]

I don't see how the Jets can afford both Laine AND Kadri.

 

[Whileee]

ehlers scheif connor will get shut down in the playoffs... those regular season advanced stats are useless in the playoffs.

That's fine. You can adjust things in the playoffs, as long as there is more balance and better defense on the Scheifele line.

So, maybe for the playoffs you could do something like this...

Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi
Connor-Lowry-Iafallo
Nino-Namestnikov-Perfetti
Barron-Gus-Appleton

 

[Heldig]

I don't see how the Jets can afford both Laine AND Kadri.

I saw a fan site commenting about Kadri. Is there any actual chatter?

 

[Buffdog]

Doesn't matter how many times you repeat it. If that is what "the org" thinks they need to change their way of thinking.

Swapping KC and Nik not only makes the 1st line better, it might very well make the 2nd line better too, or at least equal.

It has been staring them in the face for years.

Maybe they know something that you don't know?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Maybe they know something that you don't know?

Clearly they do. But is it something that is valid to overrule all that I do know?

 

[cbcwpg]

I saw a fan site commenting about Kadri. Is there any actual chatter?

Ken Wiebe mentioned it:

Winnipeg Jets weigh options for second-line centre, Nazem Kadri a potential target

We have reached the point in the offseason where folks start pondering what permutations and combinations could be on the horizon. With unrestricted free agency mostly taken care of — other than some veterans still waiting for an opportunity to bet on themselves or a team looking for a purchase...

www.winnipegfreepress.com

Just a speculation article.

 

[robertocarlos]

I saw a fan site commenting about Kadri. Is there any actual chatter?

Just a Free Press writer causing troubles.