Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[WolfHouse]

Analytics indicating thar perfetti and scheif should be our top pairing.. there's a plot twist

 

[Gm0ney]

And the team's record (prior to this year) was sub-500 when they played together. We've been a pretty good team over the length of time that Ehler's has been with the team.

Is there, like, a red light that starts flashing on your desk when I mention Ehlers in here?

 

[Gm0ney]

There's so much overreaction about what would happen if we trade Ehlers that I figured I'd give it a try to see how it feels

Well, we'll see what the Jets get back for him.

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

Is there, like, a red light that starts flashing on your desk when I mention Ehlers in here?

Yes, it's been working great since you installed it.

 

[Buffdog]

Well, we'll see what the Jets get back for him.

And just to be clear (and to elaborate on my overraction)... the stats you posted about Ehlers and Schief appear significant until you look at it in absolute terms

During the 5 years you referenced, the Jets scored 1138 goals and gave up 1028. So the goal differential of +87 with schief and ehlers together makes for 7.6% of goals scored

 

[ps241]

I agree with a lot of this, but I think the Jets have up their "smothering" playing style and system when they restructured their roster and style when Connor and Vilardi returned and Monahan and Toffoli joined. The Jets' style went from fast and smothering to a slow team that tried to hang onto the puck too long, and was not a threat in counterattack.

Basically, I don't think the roster suited the system, and you could see cracks in performance, and a system collapse vs. a very fast Avs team.

You have brought up a plausible explanation for our collapse.

 

[Whileee]

You have brought up a plausible explanation for our collapse.

Notice how the Jets' 5v5 shot metrics worsened in the second half. They still got very good goaltending, and that helped maintain their winning record. But unlike the previous season when they improved after the TDL (after adding Nino and Namestnikov), this season the shot metrics showed worrying signs.

 

[Howard Chuck]

Notice how the Jets' 5v5 shot metrics worsened in the second half. They still got very good goaltending, and that helped maintain their winning record. But unlike the previous season when they improved after the TDL (after adding Nino and Namestnikov), this season the shot metrics showed worrying signs.
View attachment 880115

Completely matches what I saw. KC, Vilardi, Monahan and Toffoli, while all good players, didn’t perform within the system that was working.

 

[Gm0ney]

And just to be clear (and to elaborate on my overraction)... the stats you posted about Ehlers and Schief appear significant until you look at it in absolute terms

During the 5 years you referenced, the Jets scored 1138 goals and gave up 1028. So the goal differential of +87 with schief and ehlers together makes for 7.6% of goals scored

I'm not sure what you're comparing there with that +87...where's that number from? And why are you comparing a goal differential to the total number of goals scored at all strengths?

The Ehlers+Scheif stats were all 5v5, so let's compare apples to apples.

Over the last 5 seasons at 5v5, Ehlers+Scheif together were +30. Ehlers without Scheifele was +54. Scheifele without Ehlers was -27. So Ehlers' total was +84. Scheifele's total was +3.

 

[10Ducky10]

It's a moot point if he wants out. They have to get something back for him. Also I agree they misused him. But there are other players who have worked well with Scheifele like Perfetti.

He has?
I was waiting to see them on the same line all year.
I honestly must have missed the game(s) they played together.

I think Perfetti-Scheif-Volare/Nino would be a great line.
Iafallo would fill in nicely for Nino on the 3rd line as would Barron.
I'd like to see Nino moved up the lineup.

 

[Buffdog]

I'm not sure what you're comparing there with that +87...where's that number from? And why are you comparing a goal differential to the total number of goals scored at all strengths?

The Ehlers+Scheif stats were all 5v5, so let's compare apples to apples.

Over the last 5 seasons at 5v5, Ehlers+Scheif together were +30. Ehlers without Scheifele was +54. Scheifele without Ehlers was -27. So Ehlers' total was +84. Scheifele's total was +3.

I must have misread

The reason I'm not talking 5v5 is because I'm trying to paint an overall, absolute picture of Ehlers impact on the team (which is what im assuming youre referring to when ypu talked about him being "dofficult to replace"). That's why I used goals in all situations, since that's how games are decided

So while the differences you point appear big in relative terms, in the overall picture of total goals over the span of the 5 seasons, it's not much in absolute terms (over 373 games)

 

[Eyeseeing]

And isn’t the fact that Brossoit and Helle were interchangeable **without a drop off a result, in part at least to Bones system?

** not in playoffs at all.
Weird Bro didn’t get a start

 

[Gm0ney]

I must have misread

The reason I'm not talking 5v5 is because I'm trying to paint an overall, absolute picture of Ehlers impact on the team (which is what im assuming youre referring to when ypu talked about him being "dofficult to replace"). That's why I used goals in all situations, since that's how games are decided

So while the differences you point appear big in relative terms, in the overall picture of total goals over the span of the 5 seasons, it's not much in absolute terms (over 373 games)

Accounting for 80% of TOI and 65% of all goals scored, 5v5 is the majority of the game.

Ehlers is one of the best 5v5 players in the league. The Jets vastly outscore their opponents when he's on the ice. He tilts the ice in terms of possession, zone exits, and zone entries. He draws lots of penalties.

Ehlers is on the ice for nearly 38% of Jets 5v5 GF in the games he's played (and only 26% of all 5v5 GA).

Scheifele is on the ice for nearly 41% of Jets 5v5 GF in the games he's played (but over 42% of all 5v5 GA).

Having a player who's dominant at 5v5 is a big plus. It's a lot of positive 5v5 impact heading out the door...

 

[SUX2BU]

** not in playoffs at all.
Weird Bro didn’t get a start

Bro should have started game 4 to send a message; especially to hellesieve

 

[Buffdog]

Accounting for 80% of TOI and 65% of all goals scored, 5v5 is the majority of the game.

Ehlers is one of the best 5v5 players in the league. The Jets vastly outscore their opponents when he's on the ice. He tilts the ice in terms of possession, zone exits, and zone entries. He draws lots of penalties.

Ehlers is on the ice for nearly 38% of Jets 5v5 GF in the games he's played (and only 26% of all 5v5 GA).

Scheifele is on the ice for nearly 41% of Jets 5v5 GF in the games he's played (but over 42% of all 5v5 GA).

Having a player who's dominant at 5v5 is a big plus. It's a lot of positive 5v5 impact heading out the door...

You're talking in relative terms still, which was my point form the start. I'm talking absolute terms

As you mentionned, 80% of the game is 5v5. Over the past 5 seasons (373 games), that's roughly 18,000 minutes of 5v5 hockey the Jets have played. And you're talking about goal differentials of ranging from +30 for Ehlers to -27 for Schief without Ehlers. That's not much over 18,000 minutes of total game play

 

[Gm0ney]

You're talking in relative terms still, which was my point form the start. I'm talking absolute terms

As you mentionned, 80% of the game is 5v5. Over the past 5 seasons (373 games), that's roughly 18,000 minutes of 5v5 hockey the Jets have played. And you're talking about goal differentials of ranging from +30 for Ehlers to -27 for Schief without Ehlers. That's not much over 18,000 minutes of total game play

I'm still not sure what the number of minutes have to do with the goal differential. Like, what's the connection you're trying to make between time and goal diff?

 

[Buffdog]

I'm still not sure what the number of minutes have to do with the goal differential. Like, what's the connection you're trying to make between time and goal diff?

He's +27 over a span of 18,000 minutes of 5v5 that the Jets have played during the 5 years that you mentionned in the post I first replied to.

That means that Nik Ehlers is on the ice for one more goal for than against at 5v5 every 667 minutes of total Jets 5v5 game time - or once every 14 games or so

You and I are looking at the same numbers but from opposite places. You've zoomed in as far as you can on Nik. I've zoomed out as far as I can to see how that fits in the overall impact he has on his team and games

And yes, I realize he has been injured in a number of those games but that's also part of the point I'm trying to make.

 

[Gm0ney]

He's +27 over a span of 18,000 minutes of 5v5 that the Jets have played during the 5 years that you mentionned in the post I first replied to.

That means that Nik Ehlers is on the ice for one more goal for than against at 5v5 every 667 minutes of total Jets 5v5 game time - or once every 14 games or so

You and I are looking at the same numbers but from opposite places. You've zoomed in as far as you can on Nik. I've zoomed out as far as I can to see how that fits in the overall impact he has on his team and games

And yes, I realize he has been injured in a number of those games but that's also part of the point I'm trying to make.

Ah, okay - it's a strange way to look at things. I just don't have any frame reference for this stat. You could probably look at any player's 5v5 goal diff and find it amounts to a small number in terms of +/- goals per game.

Also, Ehlers is +84 at 5v5 over the last 5 years and 18,000 minutes. So that would be about +1 goal more for than against every 4.5 games (assuming an average of 48 5v5 minutes per game).

Take the Bruins - the top 5v5 goaldiff (+152 over the past 3 years/12000 minutes) - that only works out to about 1 goal every 1.64 games. So for an individual being on the ice for 1 every 4.5 games...that seems pretty good.

Here are the Top 20 5v5 goal differentials over the last 3seasons:

Matthew Tkachuk	111
Auston Matthews	94
Nathan MacKinnon	88
Gustav Forsling	80
Devon Toews	80
David Pastrnak	79
Matt Grzelcyk	78
Jason Robertson	75
Mikko Rantanen	73
Mattias Ekholm	72
Charlie McAvoy	69
Connor McDavid	69
Mitchell Marner	68
Quinn Hughes	66
Carter Verhaeghe	65
Cale Makar	64
Aleksander Barkov	63
Joe Pavelski	62
Roope Hintz	58
Nikolaj Ehlers	56

20th on this list also seems pretty good.

 

[Heldig]

Ah, okay - it's a strange way to look at things. I just don't have any frame reference for this stat. You could probably look at any player's 5v5 goal diff and find it amounts to a small number in terms of +/- goals per game.

Also, Ehlers is +84 at 5v5 over the last 5 years and 18,000 minutes. So that would be about +1 goal more for than against every 4.5 games (assuming an average of 48 5v5 minutes per game).

Take the Bruins - the top 5v5 goaldiff (+152 over the past 3 years/12000 minutes) - that only works out to about 1 goal every 1.64 games. So for an individual being on the ice for 1 every 4.5 games...that seems pretty good.

Here are the Top 20 5v5 goal differentials over the last 3seasons:

Matthew Tkachuk	111
Auston Matthews	94
Nathan MacKinnon	88
Gustav Forsling	80
Devon Toews	80
David Pastrnak	79
Matt Grzelcyk	78
Jason Robertson	75
Mikko Rantanen	73
Mattias Ekholm	72
Charlie McAvoy	69
Connor McDavid	69
Mitchell Marner	68
Quinn Hughes	66
Carter Verhaeghe	65
Cale Makar	64
Aleksander Barkov	63
Joe Pavelski	62
Roope Hintz	58
Nikolaj Ehlers	56

20th on this list also seems pretty good.

I think there is enough data to prove Ehlers is a good (v good) player.

Something stops coaches from giving him more minutes. Something stops coaches from playing him on the 1st line and the 1st PP.

I would be tempted to keep him and trade Kyle Connor (better trade value, forces coaches to change up the KC-Scheifele pairing) but that seems unlikely to happen.

Chevy better make a good trade.

 

[10Ducky10]

Are we comparing the competition Ehlers sees compared to, for example, Scheifele?

 

[Daximus]

I think there is enough data to prove Ehlers is a good (v good) player.

Something stops coaches from giving him more minutes. Something stops coaches from playing him on the 1st line and the 1st PP.

I would be tempted to keep him and trade Kyle Connor (better trade value, forces coaches to change up the KC-Scheifele pairing) but that seems unlikely to happen.

Chevy better make a good trade.

I always thought the PP2 was a choice more so than anything. Maybe I'm misremembering but I thought Maurice mentioned that he preferred playing on PP2 where he could be the go to guy rather than being on PP1 but I could be wrong there.

I struggle with moving Connor because he can produce well in the playoffs and if we can ever get him away from Scheif then he's likely one of our better producers there. Unless the return is a top 6 C that is comparable than we probably shouldn't do it.

Also lets do the same exercise we have been doing here but for the playoffs over the same time span.

 

[surixon]

I always thought the PP2 was a choice more so than anything. Maybe I'm misremembering but I thought Maurice mentioned that he preferred playing on PP2 where he could be the go to guy rather than being on PP1 but I could be wrong there.

I struggle with moving Connor because he can produce well in the playoffs and if we can ever get him away from Scheif then he's likely one of our better producers there. Unless the return is a top 6 C that is comparable than we probably shouldn't do it.

Also lets do the same exercise we have been doing here but for the playoffs over the same time span.

I think he chose PP2 instead of being the bumper on pp1 if I remember correctly.

 

[Daximus]

I think he chose PP2 instead of being the bumper on pp1 if I remember correctly.

Yeah I vaguely recall Maurice explaining that to someone. The fact it's continued with every coach since tells me perhaps its a choice.

 

[surixon]

Yeah I vaguely recall Maurice explaining that to someone. The fact it's continued with every coach since tells me perhaps its a choice.

Very well could be. Also could be coaching refusing to deploy players correctly on the pp.

 

[Daximus]

Very well could be. Also could be coaching refusing to deploy players correctly on the pp.

Yeah that's a real possibility too.