Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[WolfHouse]

Huh? Did I accuse you of that? Where do you see that?

I said that I try to see things from both sides. I didnt say a goddamn thing about how you see them

I think you're "tapping out" because you took a little look through my posting history and couldn't find anything that resembles what you accused me of. If you're not at least gonna try, then take back your accusations about how I think and what I post

I was driving from dawson creek to fort nelson - I can assure you i did not scroll your history

I said you've lost sight of how your posts appear... they used to be balanced and they be become reactionary against a basically imaginary 'them'

 

[Gil Fisher]

So how did we finish 4th

Spat my coffee out. What a f***n tangent to what Whileee was saying.

 

[Whileee]

So how did we finish 4th in the league? Certainly qualifies as "top" in my opinion, considering that there are 32 teams.

My point all season is that we just don't have a centre good enough to go best on best with teams and come out on top more often than not. They've had to get creative with ways to win without an elite centre and very average (to be nice) defense. I think they tried to take some of the heavy lifting off of Schief's plate and give it to Lowry with the hope that it would create soft matchips for the 2nd line and Schief to exploit when they didn't have to be out there vs teams best

It's sad that I have to state this again, but for the record I don't agree or disagree with that approach. It is what it is, and to me it explains the choices they made. Would they have been better off putting Ehlers and Schief out there together vs other teams best night in and night out? It's of course possible, but we'll never know

I'd just note that a key reason that the Jets were 4th overall was the great play of Hellebuyck and Brossoit. Between the two goalies, the Jets had an estimated 9.5 wins above replacement. That's tops in the league, above Swayman and Ullmark.

 

[Whileee]

Spat my coffee out. What a f***n tangent to what Whileee was saying.

Yah, my point wasn't to slag the Jets so much, but to note that their second half decline might have been related to disrupting a very good top 6 that was playing Bowness' 5v5 system to perfection. I think better line combos could have improved their shot metrics and maybe improved their playoff performance somewhat.

 

[ps241]

I'd just note that a key reason that the Jets were 4th overall was the great play of Hellebuyck and Brossoit. Between the two goalies, the Jets had an estimated 9.5 wins above replacement. That's tops in the league, above Swayman and Ullmark.

I liked how our team defended collectively this year but our top 4 in the league results were absolutely driven by our league best goaltending.

 

[LowLefty]

I liked how our team defended collectively this year but our top 4 in the league results were absolutely driven by our league best goaltending.

Very true - and the good goaltending was in part due to the better defensive overall game.

 

[ps241]

Very true - and the good goaltending was in part due to the better defensive overall game.

In the playoffs the opposite happened. Both elements imploded.

 

[TS Quint]

I'd just note that a key reason that the Jets were 4th overall was the great play of Hellebuyck and Brossoit. Between the two goalies, the Jets had an estimated 9.5 wins above replacement. That's tops in the league, above Swayman and Ullmark.

Yeah? So? Isn’t that why Hellebuyck is the 3rd highest paid goaltender in the league and a core piece of the team? And isn’t the fact that Brossoit and Helle were interchangeable without a drop off a result, in part at least to Bones system?

 

[Whileee]

Yeah? So? Isn’t that why Hellebuyck is the 3rd highest paid goaltender in the league and a core piece of the team? And isn’t the fact that Brossoit and Helle were interchangeable without a drop off a result, in part at least to Bones system?

The Jets were good defensively, and there's no need to apologize for good goaltending. But the better defense and good goaltending helped to compensate for some weaknesses and poor deployment at forward, in my view.

 

[TS Quint]

The Jets were good defensively, and there's no need to apologize for good goaltending. But the better defense and good goaltending helped to compensate for some weaknesses and poor deployment at forward, in my view.

Yep, good players get paid to help their team regardless of position. I don’t see the poor deployment at forward. Just people who like some players more than the team. The Jets finished 4th in goal differential. That’s the point isn’t it? The Jets TEAM out scoring the other TEAM.

 

[Buffdog]

Very true - and the good goaltending was in part due to the better defensive overall game.

Huh? He said you need a top line to be a top contender. I just pointed out that we finished 4th, which is pretty good for a team whose 1C finished in the mid 20s in scoring for that position

In the 80s, superstars like Gretz and Mario won you the cup. Then along came Roy, Hasek and Brodeur and everyone thought an elite goalie was the key. Cue Chris Osgood, who was good enough on a stacked team but wasn't all-world.

Point is, that due to the cap, GMs have had to come up with new ways of constructing a team that can win. There are only so many McDavids and Mackinnons out there, and it seems clear that this org doesn't want to go through what it would take to have a chance to get one

So instead, they built a good (not great) but deep forward group with some average defenders (JoMo aside) and an all-world goaltender. They rely on playing smothering defense which means at times bending but not breaking vs other teams best. This group of players just isnt talented enough to go skill vs skill and have a chance to come out on top against the best teams in the league, regardless of who is on Schief's left side

So the TL/DR version is that I thought that the statement "you need your top line to be beating it's opponents to have a chance to win" (paraprased) wasn't complete. That's one way of doing it, but the Jets are looking to pioneer a different way - and appeared to have maybe found one until the playoff implosion

 

[Whileee]

Yep, good players get paid to help their team regardless of position. I don’t see the poor deployment at forward. Just people who like some players more than the team. The Jets finished 4th in goal differential. That’s the point isn’t it? The Jets TEAM out scoring the other TEAM.

Jets outscored other teams by having a big goaltending advantage and good 5v5 defense. But their weaknesses showed against a fast playoff opponent. I think the Jets would have been a tougher playoff opponent if they hadn't switched the line deployments that had been so successful, and if they hadn't injected Stanley into the lineup for the playoffs. Players like Namestnikov, Perfetti and Iafallo had been very effective, but were bit players when Monahan and Toffoli arrived (slowing the top 6). Ehlers had been very effective in a bigger role, but then demoted. Samberg-Schmidt was a very effective pair, but replaced with Stanley and Samberg (on his wrong side).

Very good season, but some missteps in roster construction and player usage down the stretch and into the playoffs. That's my general view.

I think that Monahan was an okay acquisition, but I'm not sure he was an improvement on how Namestnikov was driving that 3rd line (Lowry's line was 2nd). Toffoli pushed Iafallo to the 4th line and Perfetti out of the line-up, but was too slow for the Avs and ended up on the 4th line, anyway.

 

[Whileee]

Huh? He said you need a top line to be a top contender. I just pointed out that we finished 4th, which is pretty good for a team whose 1C finished in the mid 20s in scoring for that position

In the 80s, superstars like Gretz and Mario won you the cup. Then along came Roy, Hasek and Brodeur and everyone thought an elite goalie was the key. Cue Chris Osgood, who was good enough on a stacked team but wasn't all-world.

Point is, that due to the cap, GMs have had to come up with new ways of constructing a team that can win. There are only so many McDavids and Mackinnons out there, and it seems clear that this org doesn't want to go through what it would take to have a chance to get one

So instead, they built a good (not great) but deep forward group with some average defenders (JoMo aside) and an all-world goaltender. They rely on playing smothering defense which means at times bending but not breaking vs other teams best. This group of players just isnt talented enough to go skill vs skill and have a chance to come out on top against the best teams in the league, regardless of who is on Schief's left side

So the TL/DR version is that I thought that the statement "you need your top line to be beating it's opponents to have a chance to win" (paraprased) wasn't complete. That's one way of doing it, but the Jets are looking to pioneer a different way - and appeared to have maybe found one until the playoff implosion

I agree with a lot of this, but I think the Jets have up their "smothering" playing style and system when they restructured their roster and style when Connor and Vilardi returned and Monahan and Toffoli joined. The Jets' style went from fast and smothering to a slow team that tried to hang onto the puck too long, and was not a threat in counterattack.

Basically, I don't think the roster suited the system, and you could see cracks in performance, and a system collapse vs. a very fast Avs team.

 

[Buffdog]

I agree with a lot of this, but I think the Jets have up their "smothering" playing style and system when they restructured their roster and style when Connor and Vilardi returned and Monahan and Toffoli joined. The Jets' style went from fast and smothering to a slow team that tried to hang onto the puck too long, and was not a threat in counterattack.

Basically, I don't think the roster suited the system, and you could see cracks in performance, and a system collapse vs. a very fast Avs team.

I agree 100%

Monahan and Toffoli are nice pieces, but maybe not for what we were trying to build

 

[surixon]

I agree with a lot of this, but I think the Jets have up their "smothering" playing style and system when they restructured their roster and style when Connor and Vilardi returned and Monahan and Toffoli joined. The Jets' style went from fast and smothering to a slow team that tried to hang onto the puck too long, and was not a threat in counterattack.

Basically, I don't think the roster suited the system, and you could see cracks in performance, and a system collapse vs. a very fast Avs team.

Fully agree. I made a post about lack of top down alignment the other day. Chevy brought in players that clashed with our scheme and it hurt us the back half.

 

[Buffdog]

I was driving from dawson creek to fort nelson - I can assure you i did not scroll your history

I said you've lost sight of how your posts appear... they used to be balanced and they be become reactionary against a basically imaginary 'them'

That's 100% bullshit

My posts have never been balanced lol

I'm assuming you're up there for work... hope it goes well for you

 

[LowLefty]

Huh? He said you need a top line to be a top contender. I just pointed out that we finished 4th, which is pretty good for a team whose 1C finished in the mid 20s in scoring for that position

In the 80s, superstars like Gretz and Mario won you the cup. Then along came Roy, Hasek and Brodeur and everyone thought an elite goalie was the key. Cue Chris Osgood, who was good enough on a stacked team but wasn't all-world.

Point is, that due to the cap, GMs have had to come up with new ways of constructing a team that can win. There are only so many McDavids and Mackinnons out there, and it seems clear that this org doesn't want to go through what it would take to have a chance to get one

So instead, they built a good (not great) but deep forward group with some average defenders (JoMo aside) and an all-world goaltender. They rely on playing smothering defense which means at times bending but not breaking vs other teams best. This group of players just isnt talented enough to go skill vs skill and have a chance to come out on top against the best teams in the league, regardless of who is on Schief's left side

So the TL/DR version is that I thought that the statement "you need your top line to be beating it's opponents to have a chance to win" (paraprased) wasn't complete. That's one way of doing it, but the Jets are looking to pioneer a different way - and appeared to have maybe found one until the playoff implosion

Not sure what you're going on about - I wasn't responding to anything you posted

 

[Buffdog]

Not sure what you're going on about - I wasn't responding to anything you posted

My mistake, I meant to respond to Gil

 

[Stumbledore]

That's 100% bullshit

My posts have never been balanced lol

I'm assuming you're up there for work... hope it goes well for you

I think your avatar confirms that.

 

[Gm0ney]

Every season, Ehlers + Scheifele results in a positive (often massively positive) 5v5 goal differential and positive shot metrics.

Every season, Ehlers without Scheifele results in a positive (often massively positive) 5v5 goal differential and positive shot metrics.

Every season, Scheifele without Ehlers results in a negative or breakeven 5v5 goal differential and negative shot metrics.

The net impact of Ehlers over the last 5 seasons, playing with or without Scheifele at 5v5, has been +84 goals (and ~52% average across all the shot metrics: CF, FF, SF, xGF, SCF, HDCF).

The net impact of Scheifele over the last 5 seasons, without Ehlers at 5v5, has been -27 goals (and ~47% across all the shot metrics).

It's going to be pretty difficult to replace Ehlers - as JFresh said on Twitter today, the Jets have probably underutilized Ehlers' prime, they're probably worse off for trading him, and they're not going to get back the return they should for a player with his kind of impact.

Yeah, yeah, Ehlers has been bad in the playoffs...but do the Jets even make the playoffs in 2020, 2021 and 2023 without him? Even this year, the Jets' #1C was +0 at 5v5 without Ehlers.

 

[surixon]

Every season, Ehlers + Scheifele results in a positive (often massively positive) 5v5 goal differential and positive shot metrics.

Every season, Ehlers without Scheifele results in a positive (often massively positive) 5v5 goal differential and positive shot metrics.

Every season, Scheifele without Ehlers results in a negative or breakeven 5v5 goal differential and negative shot metrics.

The net impact of Ehlers over the last 5 seasons, playing with or without Scheifele at 5v5, has been +84 goals (and ~52% average across all the shot metrics: CF, FF, SF, xGF, SCF, HDCF).

The net impact of Scheifele over the last 5 seasons, without Ehlers at 5v5, has been -27 goals (and ~47% across all the shot metrics).

It's going to be pretty difficult to replace Ehlers - as JFresh said on Twitter today, the Jets have probably underutilized Ehlers' prime, they're probably worse off for trading him, and they're not going to get back the return they should for a player with his kind of impact.

Yeah, yeah, Ehlers has been bad in the playoffs...but do the Jets even make the playoffs in 2020, 2021 and 2023 without him? Even this year, the Jets' #1C was +0 at 5v5 without Ehlers.

It's a moot point if he wants out. They have to get something back for him. Also I agree they misused him. But there are other players who have worked well with Scheifele like Perfetti.

 

[Buffdog]

Every season, Ehlers + Scheifele results in a positive (often massively positive) 5v5 goal differential and positive shot metrics.

Every season, Ehlers without Scheifele results in a positive (often massively positive) 5v5 goal differential and positive shot metrics.

Every season, Scheifele without Ehlers results in a negative or breakeven 5v5 goal differential and negative shot metrics.

The net impact of Ehlers over the last 5 seasons, playing with or without Scheifele at 5v5, has been +84 goals (and ~52% average across all the shot metrics: CF, FF, SF, xGF, SCF, HDCF).

The net impact of Scheifele over the last 5 seasons, without Ehlers at 5v5, has been -27 goals (and ~47% across all the shot metrics).

It's going to be pretty difficult to replace Ehlers - as JFresh said on Twitter today, the Jets have probably underutilized Ehlers' prime, they're probably worse off for trading him, and they're not going to get back the return they should for a player with his kind of impact.

Yeah, yeah, Ehlers has been bad in the playoffs...but do the Jets even make the playoffs in 2020, 2021 and 2023 without him? Even this year, the Jets' #1C was +0 at 5v5 without Ehlers.

We should probably just fold the team if we lose Ehlers

 

[Gm0ney]

We should probably just fold the team if we lose Ehlers

Yes, you've accurately identified my central point precisely, as usual!

 

[Buffdog]

Yes, you've accurately identified my central point precisely, as usual!

There's so much overreaction about what would happen if we trade Ehlers that I figured I'd give it a try to see how it feels

 

[BarnabyJones PI]

And the team's record (prior to this year) was sub-500 when they played together. We've been a pretty good team over the length of time that Ehler's has been with the team.