Winnipeg Jets going into the 24/25 season

[Mortimer Snerd]

Keeping assets doesn’t always equal higher value. If there is not much interest say a second, you say I’ll keep him and he drops to waiver wire. It’s impossible to know that the 2nd was going to be the highest value.

Picks are assets. Players are assets.

You have to make evaluations and decisions all the time. GMs are decision makers.

 

[Buffdog]

I definitely think Schmidt's -5 in 3 playoff games was the writing on the wall...

Pionk has a terrible playoffs, but he still can play. I'd like to see what a full season of him and Samberg looks like. Chemistry comes from experience, like the Oilers defense has pretty much looked the same for the 2 and 1/4 seasons now. The Jets have given them some time together...last year I think they were broken up because Dillon-Schmidt were pretty slow together, moving on from those 2 sould improve the overall skating potential of the Jets defense...but I do like the idea of Pionk, who is usually the outlet passer, having a d-man who can shoot the gaps with speed as his d-partner...

I agree that De Melo is the priority...

Let's say that Lou is willing to give up draft picks for players, as he tends to: a 1st, 2nd, and maybe another 2nd next year for Ehlers. Maybe get a roster player like Czikas, as faceoffs are always a challenge around these parts. If we flipped our high 2nd, could we get Liljegren out of Toronto? I know that's a guy Chevy had some interest in. Leafs are in some Cap trouble if they want to sign Domi, Bertuzzi and Edmunson.

Is a defense of Morrissey-De Melo, Samberg-Pionk, Stanley-Liljegren better or worse than last year's defense? Other than Big Stan they all skate well...Liljegren could potentially take Pionk's PK minutes, and exceed his ice time if he gets PP2 too.

Forwards maybe you run

Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi

Nino-Perfetti-Lambert

Namestnikov-Lowry-Appleton

Sign Clutterbuck and have a checking line of Barron-Czikas-Clutterbuck, that can wear defenses down, by hitting them. Iafallo can fit in a few spots in the lineup. Gustafsson too.


That would be a different looking Jets team, maybe not that easy to play against with some speed and size.

If you're not going to have Heinola in the lineup (especially over Stanley), then at least trade him for something. Moose aren't an option anymore

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

100%, guy finishes top 10 in Selke votes, gets rave reviews from other markets, and here he gets "Jets are trapped with Lowry......" The Jets have a luxury, that most teams don't have, they have a "3rd line" that battles other team's top line, successfully, allowing the top line to face predominantly 2nd line opponents, and the second scoring line to battle their 3rd lines. What kind of numbers would the top line have had facing MacKinnon's line all series?

Not to argue with your point - but what it does is underline the weakness of our top 2 scoring lines. The Lowry line gives them the advantage of weaker opponents and they still lose their matchups.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

What teams out there could be looking for a veteran RHD (Pionk) to potentially add some leadership to a younger team trying to push for the playoffs or flip next deadline? Team’s aggressively looking to stockpile picks (Chicago, San Jose, Columbus) are active like this.

Are there any teams with high priced UFA’s they won’t be able to retain that could look to him as an alternative replacement?

One way or another the makeup of this team needs to change and if Chevy could find a dance partner for a younger less established player or strictly replenish with picks then that’s the way to go. It’s that or a Schmidt buyout. Doubtful both happen, but that could open up space for something nobody’s expecting.

I could see Carolina being interested in Pionk IF we retained a lot of salary. They have 4UFA Dmen, including Pesce and Skjei. They have 3 NHL Dmen under contract for 1 more year. They have 3 more who don't really look like NHL level players at this point and really nothing much in their system.

They could still sign Pesce and Skjei but I don't think they want to pay them.

 

[voyageur]

If you're not going to have Heinola in the lineup (especially over Stanley), then at least trade him for something. Moose aren't an option anymore

I think Stan can kill penalties and that's going to be a focus for Arniel...Heinola might be able to run the PP, but is his 5 on 5 game good enough...we'll find out...being in the NHL is an option, probably be pretty happy getting an NHL pay cheque, being around pros, and traveling to big league cities. He'll get playing time...not like there is competition from anyone else below in the organization...maybe Jets carry Heinola and Lundmark as 7th and 8th d-men. Find out what they are made of.

 

[KingBogo]

Not to argue with your point - but what it does is underline the weakness of our top 2 scoring lines. The Lowry line gives them the advantage of weaker opponents and they still lose their matchups.

Mort I think we are losing some perspective around here. Yes we got cratered in the playoffs but we were the 4th top team points wise in the regular season and the Jennings winning team. Our top 2 lines didn’t lose all their matchups through the season

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mort I think we are losing some perspective around here. Yes we got cratered in the playoffs but we were the 4th top team points wise in the regular season and the Jennings winning team. Our top 2 lines didn’t lose all their matchups through the season

True. The PO %^&* is depressing assessments.
Unfortunately, the pair of KC & Scheif lost their matchups too often, but not always. The second line had too many dry spells but still managed to play well enough defensively. Goaltending covered a lot of warts.

But the regular season was great, most of the time.

 

[JetsFan815]

Mort I think we are losing some perspective around here. Yes we got cratered in the playoffs but we were the 4th top team points wise in the regular season and the Jennings winning team. Our top 2 lines didn’t lose all their matchups through the season

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

 

[Bigfish]

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

Unfortuneately It's becoming a tradition with the Jets.

 

[LowLefty]

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

The question is, why were they losing more matchups in the second half versus the first half?

 

[Buffdog]

The question is, why were they losing more matchups in the second half versus the first half?

They lost plenty of matchups in the first half as well. The team isn't designed to win best vs best.. schief was like 25th in scoring for centres this season.

Some people will take the small.sample side of when ESV was on fire in late December as a shownthat they could dominate regularly but their little stint of getting caved at the end of the season when they were reunited showud that it wasn't likely

 

[DRW204]

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

from beg of feb-end of regular season; the 2nd line primarily w/ monahan & ehlers were our most productive line in terms of scoring per TOI (GF/60) and net goals (GF%). the top-line probably was the weakest but still around even

 

[10Ducky10]

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

They were on a 102 point rate after the ASB? 20-12-1
Did the bottom 6 win all those games for us?

 

[WolfHouse]

They lost plenty of matchups in the first half as well. The team isn't designed to win best vs best.. schief was like 25th in scoring for centres this season.

Some people will take the small.sample side of when ESV was on fire in late December as a shownthat they could dominate regularly but their little stint of getting caved at the end of the season when they were reunited showud that it wasn't likely

You just seem to blame ehlers for everything now- to use your own logic shouldn't we ask if vilardi wasn't the problem after his injury.... no one looks at that

You've gone just as extreme as the other posters you talk about... bur your arguments also take on the garret and dom models..

Just a comment that's all - thr board has gone from 'don't say anything bad about scheif' to 'throw everyone under the bus to free perfettu' to 'analytics sucks because it says ehlers is very good'

 

[Whileee]

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

This coincided with the return of Connor and Vilardi. As usual, the Connor-Scheifele duo was over-matched in shot metrics (unless they had Ehlers on RW).

They also broke up a very successful line of Perfett-Namestnikov-Iafallo when all three were demoted to 4th line or press box.

 

[LowLefty]

They lost plenty of matchups in the first half as well. The team isn't designed to win best vs best.. schief was like 25th in scoring for centres this season.

Some people will take the small.sample side of when ESV was on fire in late December as a shownthat they could dominate regularly but their little stint of getting caved at the end of the season when they were reunited showud that it wasn't likely

What I'm getting at here is that they can play sound defensive hockey and come out on top - I get that they don't show a lot of consistency in doing that but it can b done. I have to assume they won more than they lost in that 1st half - and I'm not looking for perfection.
So the next question is, what does it take to get them into that groove - or is that simply not going to happen.

 

[surixon]

In the 2nd half of the season post ASB our top-2 lines (esp that top line) were regularly losing their matchups.

This coincided with the return of Connor and Vilardi. As usual, the Connor-Scheifele duo was over-matched in shot metrics (unless they had Ehlers on RW).

They also broke up a very successful line of Perfett-Namestnikov-Iafallo when all three were demoted to 4th line or press box.

View attachment 879795

Still absolutely annoys me that Bones didn't see the opportunity to ice a true high end top 12. He could have taken minutes away from the top line and had a dominant bottom 9. Instead he broke up a high end combo and then when they went to the fourth or PB they had to simplify and play q fourth line crash and bang risk free game.

 

[Buffdog]

You just seem to blame ehlers for everything now- to use your own logic shouldn't we ask if vilardi wasn't the problem after his injury.... no one looks at that

You've gone just as extreme as the other posters you talk about... bur your arguments also take on the garret and dom models..

Just a comment that's all - thr board has gone from 'don't say anything bad about scheif' to 'throw everyone under the bus to free perfettu' to 'analytics sucks because it says ehlers is very good'

Please give me one single example of me blaming Ehlers for anything or where I've said that analytics suck because they say Ehlers is good. Analytics are a useful tool of objective observation. But they don't tell the whole story about anything

I love Ehlers and hope he stays long term. But I'm not immune to his flaws either

Just because I don't see any issue in black/white, I'm always running the risk of both sides coming at me because we live in a day and age where "if you're not 100% with me, you're against me". This is an example of it

 

[WolfHouse]

A

Please give me one single example of me blaming Ehlers for anything or where I've said that analytics suck because they say Ehlers is good. Analytics are a useful tool of objective observation. But they don't tell the whole story about anything

I love Ehlers and hope he stays long term. But I'm not immune to his flaws either

Just because I don't see any issue in black/white, I'm always running the risk of both sides coming at me because we live in a day and age where "if you're not 100% with me, you're against me". This is an example of it

To craft my response in this fashion is the extreme approach that I'm talking about... I'll tap out after being accused of not seeing both sides . Good day sir.

 

[Buffdog]

A

To craft my response in this fashion is the extreme approach that I'm talking about... I'll tap out after being accused of not seeing both sides . Good day sir.

Huh? Did I accuse you of that? Where do you see that?

I said that I try to see things from both sides. I didnt say a goddamn thing about how you see them

I think you're "tapping out" because you took a little look through my posting history and couldn't find anything that resembles what you accused me of. If you're not at least gonna try, then take back your accusations about how I think and what I post

 

[Hank Chinaski]

The question is, why were they losing more matchups in the second half versus the first half?

As Whileee pointed out: Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi became a regular thing in the second half, and they were xG% poison.

(And for those who have no use for metrics, IMO the “eye test” proved them to be an overmatched and ineffective top line at 5v5.)

 

[Jet]

As Whileee pointed out: Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi became a regular thing in the second half, and they were xG% poison.

(And for those who have no use for metrics, IMO the “eye test” proved them to be an overmatched and ineffective top line at 5v5.)

Holy f*** Hank!!

That is all

Huh? Did I accuse you of that? Where do you see that?

I said that I try to see things from both sides. I didnt say a goddamn thing about how you see them

I think you're "tapping out" because you took a little look through my posting history and couldn't find anything that resembles what you accused me of. If you're not at least gonna try, then take back your accusations about how I think and what I post

Some can't take the heat when challenged

 

[Buffdog]

As Whileee pointed out: Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi became a regular thing in the second half, and they were xG% poison.

(And for those who have no use for metrics, IMO the “eye test” proved them to be an overmatched and ineffective top line at 5v5.)

Schief finished the season at 56% GF% 5v5 and Connor was 50%

For all the shit that those two take on here (some of it justified), they matched up vs other teams best all season and at worst ended up a saw off at the end of the year at even strength.

In a perfect world, Schief is a 2C and Connor is a complementary 2nd line winger with a play driver and a checker. They aren't built to beat other teams best yet they did OK.

I've seen the arguments for having other line combinations that are more effective and I won't disagree with any of them. But I feel like Connor/Schief get absolutely blasted around here, especially by the stats guys

Even if you'd rather go xGF% for some reason, they were 45%. Not good, but when you're that flawed and playing vs the McDavids and Mackinnons of the world, it could be a lot worse. You'd have to look at the absolute (rather than relative) effect of that 5% below 50 to really realize how little it impacts the game based on 12 minutes of even strength shifts per game

 

[Whileee]

Schief finished the season at 56% GF% 5v5 and Connor was 50%

For all the shit that those two take on here (some of it justified), they matched up vs other teams best all season and at worst ended up a saw off at the end of the year at even strength.

In a perfect world, Schief is a 2C and Connor is a complementary 2nd line winger with a play driver and a checker. They aren't built to beat other teams best yet they did OK.

I've seen the arguments for having other line combinations that are more effective and I won't disagree with any of them. But I feel like Connor/Schief get absolutely blasted around here, especially by the stats guys

Even if you'd rather go xGF% for some reason, they were 45%. Not good, but when you're that flawed and playing vs the McDavids and Mackinnons of the world, it could be a lot worse. You'd have to look at the absolute (rather than relative) effect of that 5% below 50 to really realize how little it impacts the game based on 12 minutes of even strength shifts per game

They only ended up positive in goal and xG differentials at 5v5 because they sometimes played with Ehlers. Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi were negative in goals and xG and if your top line is in the red, you won't be a top contender.

 

[Buffdog]

They only ended up positive in goal and xG differentials at 5v5 because they sometimes played with Ehlers. Connor-Scheifele-Vilardi were negative in goals and xG and if your top line is in the red, you won't be a top contender.

So how did we finish 4th in the league? Certainly qualifies as "top" in my opinion, considering that there are 32 teams.

My point all season is that we just don't have a centre good enough to go best on best with teams and come out on top more often than not. They've had to get creative with ways to win without an elite centre and very average (to be nice) defense. I think they tried to take some of the heavy lifting off of Schief's plate and give it to Lowry with the hope that it would create soft matchips for the 2nd line and Schief to exploit when they didn't have to be out there vs teams best

It's sad that I have to state this again, but for the record I don't agree or disagree with that approach. It is what it is, and to me it explains the choices they made. Would they have been better off putting Ehlers and Schief out there together vs other teams best night in and night out? It's of course possible, but we'll never know