Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Guffman]

Every criticism of Corsi based analytics fails to consider sample size.

Yeah, no. In the past, I looked at the end of year metrics of Corsi. Many of the best teams had a lousy Corsi, while good Corsi teams didn’t make the playoffs.

People are still hanging their hat on Corsi? REALLY?! LMAO!

 

[Guffman]

We only have Forsberg because we lost Comrie on waivers. We got Comrie back on waivers and he is eligible to be on taxi squad or Moose. Why we have 5 goalies on the roster who could play in the NHL in a pinch is beyond me. Forsberg is an easy waive candidate.

Since there was a goalie scramble, I think the Jets feel Forsberg might have some trade value. I agree that he has no real benefit for the Jets and he is eating up a roster spot, hurting our flexibility, which people are recognizing in this discussion.

I think we hold Forsberg until shortly after the trade line before getting waived if we find no trade partners.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Mark Schiefele recently scoffed at analytics. He didn’t think that was an appropriate way to judge play. Why do you guys think better that a hockey nerd like Schiefele?

Which guys?

I'm no analytics guy. I can't even figure out how to look up the stats. But I grasp the broad concepts.

If I was an analytics guy, why would I defer to Scheifele? He looks at the game from a completely different perspective.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah, no. In the past, I looked at the end of year metrics of Corsi. Many of the best teams had a lousy Corsi, while good Corsi teams didn’t make the playoffs.

People are still hanging their hat on Corsi? REALLY?! LMAO!

Go ahead and present your findings. Might be interesting.

 

[Ducky10]

I agree with what you're saying but Morrissey, though better lately has really struggled with the puck and decision making. Of course, some of that is partner-dependent, but he's doing uncharactaristically bad things more and more (overskating the puck when theres no pressure, not receiving or making passes cleanly, hesitating in his decision making). Playing with a guy he seems to trust in Demelo might help with that.

I won’t argue that Morrissey has struggled a bit and I’ve said as much. I just think many of his struggles are down to having to play with a variety of partners and a lot on his off side. You play defence, you know how important it is to be on the same page as your partner and how much you rely on him to be in position, especially when moving the puck under pressure. Some of this lies at the feet of the forwards as well to be sure, but much of it has to do with Bo Bo being constantly out of position and not available for Morrissey to make a play to.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You have to stop with this narrative. Maurice has one player he can play over Beaulieu. Niku. No room for Stanley, without waivers. Maurice probably has had limited time to scout Samberg and Heinola since they are not playing in the same city as his team, most of the time. That role falls upon our scouts. This is nothing but misinformation, Whileee.

And honestly have you been watching Josh play, we are getting the softest player on our team. Who refuses to sacrifice the body, and doesn't get sticks in the shooting lane. He's making $8 million this year, frankly I think he's not earning it.

I expect every game we lose now for the rest of the year to degenerate into Beaulieu and Thompson are blocking better younger players, because of our archaic coach.

Waive Forsberg. Send Comrie to the taxi squad. Opens up a spot to rotate Stanley in. Could also be used to take a look at Samberg & Heinola.

If not that then WTF did we claim Comrie for?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is false.

We are carrying 3 goalies on the roster, waive Forsberg (Comrie is now available for the Jets) and there's a roster spot.

f*** waive Thompson while you're at it.

I just posted the same thing - but I forgot to waive Thompson.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Since when did Maurice start waiving players?

Do you think he doesn't get the players he requests?

He tells Chevy he wants Stanley, or Samberg, or Heinola. Chevy figures out how to do it. Turns out it is easy.

 

[Guffman]

Go ahead and present your findings. Might be interesting.

I just did a quick search from a previous post of mine: Corsi and #'s explain for the layman

So, I took a look at the team Corsi for last season. The Final Four finished with Corsi rankings of 6, 16, 19 and 22.

Meanwhile, the top Corsi team didn't make the playoffs.

Care to explain the "correlation" to success?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I just did a quick search from a previous post of mine: Corsi and #'s explain for the layman

So, I took a look at the team Corsi for last season. The Final Four finished with Corsi rankings of 6, 16, 19 and 22.

Meanwhile, the top Corsi team didn't make the playoffs.

Care to explain the "correlation" to success?

Nope. Ask an analytics guy.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Holy f***, Morrissey is just trying to freaking survive out there playing with the likes of Beaulieu and to a lesser extent Poolman against the leagues best for top minutes every night, mainly on his wrong side to pile on. The Jets are seriously effed if anything happens to him so I’m willing to cut him some slack for playing more positionally and not recklessly throwing himself around.

Play him on the left, put Demelo on his right and give him a fighting chance. Keep Pionk and Bort together and throw Poolman and Stanley out there in a sheltered role. I’m not sure things could be any worse than they currently are, so the downside here is lost on me. Mo is not optimizing his d core, he’s watering it down in his warped way of balancing things.

It fascinates me how quickly he changes certain things if they don’t show short term results, while at the same time sticking with things that clearly don’t work over and over and over again.

Good post.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

all good questions, and probably factors into the results.

Is it the same beau? idk, was he this garbage when we acquired him in 18-19? guy was being healthy scratched in Buffalo of all places 2 years ago and is now a top pair here.
Is it chemistry and fit? perhaps.... idk if Morrissey can carry a pair. He's always played with a pretty good partner like Buff or Trouba. Trouba has had partners which he had to essentially carry as a Jet (ie: Stuart, Beau)
Is Trouba better than Mo but everyone looks bad in NY? i do think trouba as a jet was/is>morrissey, and i do think nyr has been traditionally a terrible team defensively which bleeds into his overall stats.

Trouba and Morrissey played together that year. Morrissey missed 23 games. Did Beau play with Trouba then?

If so, what makes you think the pairing was successful? Team was bad the last half of that season.

 

[Teemusalami204]

I’m thinking both henola and samburg will not be used so their elcs slide and they are up for new contracts the same year as our big 3.

There is a 4 year plan with wheeler and Maurice going on here and they don’t want two contracts thinning out the roster in the last year of the big 3s deals.

The last year of wheelers contract is going to year we really go for it

 

[KingBogo]

I’m thinking both henola and samburg will not be used so their elcs slide and they are up for new contracts the same year as our big 3.

There is a 4 year plan with wheeler and Maurice going on here and they don’t want two contracts thinning out the roster in the last year of the big 3s deals.

The last year of wheelers contract is going to year we really go for it

Samberg's ELC won't slide, he is beyond the age where the ELC can slide. Heiniola's ELC can still slide.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I wonder if its time to revisit adding Travis Hamonic.

 

[rubikscube]

I wonder if its time to revisit adding Travis Hamonic.

No. He's awful this year.

 

[Teemusalami204]

Samberg's ELC won't slide, he is beyond the age where the ELC can slide. Heiniola's ELC can still slide.

Ahhhh well I think the writing is on the wall then. Samberg will be the one if any to get a longer look.

 

[KingBogo]

Ahhhh well I think the writing is on the wall then. Samberg will be the one if any to get a longer look.

Agreed. I think all things being equal the organization would prefer for Heinola's ELC to start next season. I still think Samberg gets a look at some point this season.

 

[stonec]

Mark Schiefele recently scoffed at analytics. He didn’t think that was an appropriate way to judge play. Why do you guys think better than a hockey nerd like Schiefele?

Players are there to play, I don't think they have much time to pay attention to in-depth analytics. If analytics didn't work, no team would be using them, but you see exactly the opposite trend. Almost all teams have their own data analyst people now, the big teams several. Ted Nolan made fun of analytics seven years ago, but the world has moved on since then.

 

[Ducky10]

Yeah, no. In the past, I looked at the end of year metrics of Corsi. Many of the best teams had a lousy Corsi, while good Corsi teams didn’t make the playoffs.

People are still hanging their hat on Corsi? REALLY?! LMAO!

It’s funny that your dismissal of analytics is in complete opposition with the fact all NHL teams use them extensively.

Baseball has almost rid itself of all the dinosaurs who continually dismissed analytics. People who reject such things simply fail to understand them and don’t even bother to try. They keep insisting they know best, even when it’s clear they simply aren’t.

Even Maurice accepts them.

 

[TheGovernment]

Even Maurice accepts them.

Does he really though? Does he really?..... his decisions would seem to point to him just being a shit coach lol

 

[Orrrules]

Hope Shrek goes in for booboo next game. His size alone will have Leafs looking over their shoulders. We gave them way too much room in our d zone.

 

[garret9]

Garret was gushing over Petan and Dano. Sorry, that was ridiculous.

I remember the era when people would live and die on Corsi. Again, it was an incredibly ridiculous foundation to base wide sweeping conclusions on. What did Guffman say at the time? I like stats, even so-called advanced stats, but they are still at a primitive level at tracking what is going on on the ice and shouldn’t be relied on so heavily.

We have people spouting their stats and graphs, pretending that their opinions are well validated and often, it turns out to be pretty garbo in hindsight.

lol

 

[garret9]

There are no good advanced stats.

None will tell you who is good, but some are better at telling you who isn't

Either players or teams

To tell who is good, you have to tell who isn't and vice versa.
They are linked.

 

[garret9]

Yeah, no. In the past, I looked at the end of year metrics of Corsi. Many of the best teams had a lousy Corsi, while good Corsi teams didn’t make the playoffs.

People are still hanging their hat on Corsi? REALLY?! LMAO!

And this is not even accounting for usage