Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[castle]

There are no good advanced stats.

None will tell you who is good, but some are better at telling you who isn't

Either players or teams

 

[StumpyTown]

Looks like the Jets have made a decision that Heinola and Samberg will play with the Moose this year no matter how bad the D plays, next year they will be given every chance to make the team and contribute, not what I would of done as in all probability 3 of the D that played last night will not be here next year

Makes me wonder if there is some obscure rule around the rookie contracts of these guys and if there is an extra year of RFA team control in here by letting them play in the minors. At least it would make some bit of sense for the team not to waste a year of team control on a shortened season.

 

[Duke749]

There are no good advanced stats.

None will tell you who is good, but some are better at telling you who isn't

Either players or teams

Ummm, ok lol

 

[FrankGallagher]

Mo - Demelo
Forbort - Pionk
Stanley - Poolman

No reason for Stanley not to be playing right now. Had a promising start in easy minutes, lets see what we have in him.

 

[Jimmyjets]

Makes me wonder if there is some obscure rule around the rookie contracts of these guys and if there is an extra year of RFA team control in here by letting them play in the minors. At least it would make some bit of sense for the team not to waste a year of team control on a shortened season.

That is the case for Heinola. His ELC will slide if he plays less than 7 games for the Jets this year so we'll get extra years of control. Given what we just went through with Trouba and then Laine I think the Jets are going to really start manipulating service time like they do in baseball. We're not getting anything by playing these kids as 18, 19 or 20 year olds. By the time UFA is coming up they've long forgotten the favour the Jets did them by starting them early.

Samberg is different because he's already 22 years old. He's going to be a UFA at 27 if he plays this year or not. Maybe there's something with his car accident in the offseason where they don't want to put a financial bullseye on his back with a civil lawsuit? Maybe he's just only played 12 pro games and they just aren't sure he's ready yet? IDK.

At any rate, we've got Stanley sitting there on the taxi squad that looked pretty good when he was playing.

IMO the big issue is that we need to keep Beaulieu on the roster to be our exposed Dman in the expansion draft, so to get a Stanley back up we need to either have someone get hurt and put on the IR or we need to waive Sami Niku. However if we wait a bit longer, once Comrie can join the taxi squad we can waive Anton Forsberg and then we have more flexibility in callingup/dressing a Stanley or a Samberg if we wanted.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

We have 4 guys that should be playing over Beaulieu. It's honestly pathetic.

Plus if Mo is insistent on playing Demelo on the 3rd pair (he 100% should be with Morrissey), he is the perfect compliment for a young guy coming into the league.

Instead, we get Nate f***ing Beaulieu.

 

[Whileee]

We have 4 guys that should be playing over Beaulieu. It's honestly pathetic.

Plus if Mo is insistent on playing Demelo on the 3rd pair (he 100% should be with Morrissey), he is the perfect compliment for a young guy coming into the league.

Instead, we get Nate f***ing Beaulieu.

I have been willing to give Maurice a bit of the benefit of the doubt on Beaulieu as a #6/7 D, if he was able to hold his own as he did in the past couple of seasons. But he's really struggled with the roles he's been given, and yet Maurice is willing to roll him out over competent young players in the pipeline.

 

[voyageur]

I have been willing to give Maurice a bit of the benefit of the doubt on Beaulieu as a #6/7 D, if he was able to hold his own as he did in the past couple of seasons. But he's really struggled with the roles he's been given, and yet Maurice is willing to roll him out over competent young players in the pipeline.

You have to stop with this narrative. Maurice has one player he can play over Beaulieu. Niku. No room for Stanley, without waivers. Maurice probably has had limited time to scout Samberg and Heinola since they are not playing in the same city as his team, most of the time. That role falls upon our scouts. This is nothing but misinformation, Whileee.

And honestly have you been watching Josh play, we are getting the softest player on our team. Who refuses to sacrifice the body, and doesn't get sticks in the shooting lane. He's making $8 million this year, frankly I think he's not earning it.

I expect every game we lose now for the rest of the year to degenerate into Beaulieu and Thompson are blocking better younger players, because of our archaic coach.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

You have to stop with this narrative. Maurice has one player he can play over Beaulieu. Niku. No room for Stanley, without waivers. Maurice probably has had limited time to scout Samberg and Heinola since they are not playing in the same city as his team, most of the time. That role falls upon our scouts. This is nothing but misinformation, Whileee.

And honestly have you been watching Josh play, for $8 million, we are getting the softest player on our team. Who refuses to sacrifice the body, and doesn't get sticks in the shooting lane. He's making $8 million this year, frankly I think he's not earning it.

I expect every game we lose now for the rest of the year to degenerate into Beaulieu and Thompson are blocking better younger players, because of our archaic coach.

This is false.

We are carrying 3 goalies on the roster, waive Forsberg (Comrie is now available for the Jets) and there's a roster spot.

f*** waive Thompson while you're at it.

 

[voyageur]

This is false.

We are carrying 3 goalies on the roster, waive Forsberg (Comrie is now available for the Jets) and there's a roster spot.

f*** waive Thompson while you're at it.

Since when did Maurice start waiving players?

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Since when did Maurice start waiving players?

You think Maurice has no say in roster construction? If he wanted one of the other defensemen on the roster, it would happen.

There's a bridge in Beausejour I could sell you...

 

[Whileee]

You have to stop with this narrative. Maurice has one player he can play over Beaulieu. Niku. No room for Stanley, without waivers. Maurice probably has had limited time to scout Samberg and Heinola since they are not playing in the same city as his team, most of the time. That role falls upon our scouts. This is nothing but misinformation, Whileee.

And honestly have you been watching Josh play, we are getting the softest player on our team. Who refuses to sacrifice the body, and doesn't get sticks in the shooting lane. He's making $8 million this year, frankly I think he's not earning it.

I expect every game we lose now for the rest of the year to degenerate into Beaulieu and Thompson are blocking better younger players, because of our archaic coach.

Why can't they play Stanley over Beaulieu? I don't think that would be a problem as they could swap Beaulieu with him, unless I'm missing something.

Maybe the roster is also on Chevy, but Maurice is responsible for Beaulieu playing over 17 minutes a night, and for forcing Morrissey to play with Beaulieu on a top pair.

Morrissey needs to be better, for sure. But Maurice has saddled him with a revolving door of partners, including players like Beaulieu and Poolman, who have never shown that they can handle top-4 roles.

Listen, if the Jets are willing to throw in the towel for this season and focus on developing their young D with the Moose, then maybe you could justify playing Beaulieu, but in that case then they should work Stanley into the line-up. Beaulieu has been so bad this season that the Jets are going to struggle to have any impact with him in a key role.

 

[voyageur]

You think Maurice has no say in roster construction? If he wanted one of the other defensemen on the roster, it would happen.

There's a bridge in Beausejour I could sell you...

You are dodging a lot of questions. There's only one d-man that we could waive to bring up a kid from the farm. That's Niku, because you have to manage the roster for the expansion draft too, and Beaulieu will be the unprotected d-man.

If you think Chevy has no hand in this roster, you are mistaken.

Maybe the trend this year is to go with vets. How many teams are successfully deploying rookie laden rosters? Have you ever considered that we are in a good position because we have depth in case of injury, and the best currency is ELCs. That we are, unlike last year, relatively healthy on defense?

 

[voyageur]

Why can't they play Stanley over Beaulieu? I don't think that would be a problem as they could swap Beaulieu with him, unless I'm missing something.

Maybe the roster is also on Chevy, but Maurice is responsible for Beaulieu playing over 17 minutes a night, and for forcing Morrissey to play with Beaulieu on a top pair.

Morrissey needs to be better, for sure. But Maurice has saddled him with a revolving door of partners, including players like Beaulieu and Poolman, who have never shown that they can handle top-4 roles.

Listen, if the Jets are willing to throw in the towel for this season and focus on developing their young D with the Moose, then maybe you could justify playing Beaulieu, but in that case then they should work Stanley into the line-up. Beaulieu has been so bad this season that the Jets are going to struggle to have any impact with him in a key role.

Did you watch Stanley's game in Calgary? No protection in matchups. He got eaten up. How does Stanley get on the roster? Waiving Forsberg would be the easy answer, but they haven't. Is that Maurice's fault too?

How the hell did we win so many games with Beaulieu in the lineup, if Beaulieu is as terrible as you say? Morrissey has allowed more goals against in the 5 on 5 differential, and more goal against on the PK. I mean is it just Pionk, Forbort, and De Melo carrying us? It's the team playing as a team.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

You are dodging a lot of questions. There's only one d-man that we could waive to bring up a kid from the farm. That's Niku, because you have to manage the roster for the expansion draft too, and Beaulieu will be the unprotected d-man.

If you think Chevy has no hand in this roster, you are mistaken.

Maybe the trend this year is to go with vets. How many teams are successfully deploying rookie laden rosters? Have you ever considered that we are in a good position because we have depth in case of injury, and the best currency is ELCs. That we are, unlike last year, relatively healthy on defense?

I have not dodged a single question lol, that seems like projection. You're the one dodging. You don't have to waive a d man, waive Forsberg, waive Thompson.

Of course Chevy has a say, they both do, but if Maurice wanted to play one of Niku, Stanley, Heinola or Samberg he could make it happen and pretending he couldn't to let him off the hook is disingenuous.

Yeah, the trend is always to go with vets in those roles for Paul (see: Stuart, Hendricks, Thompson, Lewis, Sbisa, Bitetto etc.). A rookie laden roster? Do we have a single rookie on the team? Gustafsson/Vesa I guess but even they aren't on the roster anymore. Playing one rookie doesn't make your team rookie laden. The best currency is ELC? Well maybe we should use Stanley's or Sambergs then before they run out.

 

[voyageur]

I have not dodged a single question lol, that seems like projection. You're the one dodging. You don't have to waive a d man, waive Forsberg, waive Thompson.

Of course Chevy has a say, they both do, but if Maurice wanted to play one of Niku, Stanley, Heinola or Samberg he could make it happen and pretending he couldn't to let him off the hook is disingenuous.

Yeah, the trend is always to go with vets in those roles for Paul (see: Stuart, Hendricks, Thompson, Lewis, Sbisa, Bitetto etc.). A rookie laden roster? Do we have a single rookie on the team? Gustafsson/Vesa I guess but even they aren't on the roster anymore. Playing one rookie doesn't make your team rookie laden. The best currency is ELC? Well maybe we should use Stanley's or Sambergs then before they run out.

Toronto has one rookie, Engvall, who is hardly a rookie. Montreal has one rookie, Romanov, who was pretty polished already. Edmonton only brought up Bouchard, with Bear's injury, and have had to throw Lagesson in for a couple of games. Down at the bottom are the Senators, with a young, inexperienced team. I think because of the shortened season you are seeing less young players get their shot, as a whole, because there isn't a lot of room for mistakes, and like I said, best depth currency is ELC.

You're making false claims. How does Maurice get anyone on the roster? Does he go up to Chevy and say waive Forsberg, waive Niku, so I can get my young players in? I seriously doubt those conversations happen. Do you even know what management's intentions are for Heinola? As for Samberg, seemed like the plan was to get him up to speed. They gave him a stint on his offside that didn't go well. Heinola and Samberg didn't produce a single bit of offense from the backend. As a coach he would tell you what you are doing right, so that the next time your number gets called you keep doing the right things.

Waive Thompson? I don't know if you noticed but the lesser Corsi'd Thompson was +3 up until the last game, with a GWG, hadn't allowed a 5 on 5 goal, while Harkins carried a o across the scoresheet, and -3 to his name, and a line that took penalties too, in their 4th line shifts. Some of that is the Perreault factor, granted, but he plays the same position as Ves. Vesalainen is the only forward with a worse Corsi than Thompson on the team, because he's still tentative. But our coach should demand waivers for Thompson? To make room for who?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I liked PLD's response to analytics. It more or less summarizes my view. The game happens too fast to be broken down correctly in analytics.

You have got that exactly backwards. Analytics doesn't try to break it down. Just the opposite. Analytics aggregates all those very small, very fast events into their net effects. Just by counting shot attempts you see the product of all those events. They all have either a positive or a negative effect on shot attempts or else they were irrelevant. It is actually very simple, at least at that level. And it works.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I used statistics to publish research once..They are great for explaining what happened, but when observers agree on the “Eye” test, it can weigh heavily for predictive value..
And how can you quantify the emotional coefficient of an individual or team..that’s not even considered in the equation..Hockey is so much more fun because of all the intangible variables..

Everything done in the game will have some effect on shot attempts, eventually. Every intangible, every emotion, every aspect of 'chemistry' that has an effect on winning or losing will have an effect on shot attempts, either positively or negatively, eventually.

Every criticism of Corsi based analytics fails to consider sample size. If some factor fails to show an impact in any slice of play, whether it be a single shift, a period, a game or a season, it will be because the sample size was too small. Because everything will eventually impact shot attempts. Unless it is irrelevant to the results.

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Toronto has one rookie, Engvall, who is hardly a rookie. Montreal has one rookie, Romanov, who was pretty polished already. Edmonton only brought up Bouchard, with Bear's injury, and have had to throw Lagesson in for a couple of games. Down at the bottom are the Senators, with a young, inexperienced team. I think because of the shortened season you are seeing less young players get their shot, as a whole, because there isn't a lot of room for mistakes, and like I said, best depth currency is ELC.

You're making false claims. How does Maurice get anyone on the roster? Does he go up to Chevy and say waive Forsberg, waive Niku, so I can get my young players in? I seriously doubt those conversations happen. Do you even know what management's intentions are for Heinola? As for Samberg, seemed like the plan was to get him up to speed. They gave him a stint on his offside that didn't go well. Heinola and Samberg didn't produce a single bit of offense from the backend. As a coach he would tell you what you are doing right, so that the next time your number gets called you keep doing the right things.

Waive Thompson? I don't know if you noticed but the lesser Corsi'd Thompson was +3 up until the last game, with a GWG, hadn't allowed a 5 on 5 goal, while Harkins carried a o across the scoresheet, and -3 to his name, and a line that took penalties too, in their 4th line shifts. Some of that is the Perreault factor, granted, but he plays the same position as Ves. Vesalainen is the only forward with a worse Corsi than Thompson on the team, because he's still tentative. But our coach should demand waivers for Thompson? To make room for who?

Paul: Hey Chevy, Nate's not looking great and I want to see what we have with these kids.
Chevy: Alright Paul I'll make it happen.

You really think that conversation couldn't happen lol.

Thompson is not good at hockey. Gus/Harkins/Vesalainen might not be good at hockey, but they might be good too. Worth a shot.

To make room for who? We were literally just talking about bringing up another defensemen to the active roster lol, so that would be who

 

[voyageur]

Everything done in the game will have some effect on shot attempts, eventually. Every intangible, every emotion, every aspect of 'chemistry' that has an effect on winning or losing will have an effect on shot attempts, either positively or negatively, eventually.

Every criticism of Corsi based analytics fails to consider sample size. If some factor fails to show an impact in any slice of play, whether it be a single shift, a period, a game or a season, it will be because the sample size was too small. Because everything will eventually impact shot attempts. Unless it is irrelevant to the results.

You can shoot and still not score. There's a goalie that stands between the pipes. Quality of shots is very important. If you look at the recent trend, teams have been attacking the Jets with tip ins. A clean shot with no traffic is always less dangerous than a shot with traffic. The other kind of good shot is a win on a cycle, because eventually you break down the defense, to create a scoring space. The Jets are great at transition speed attacks, cycle attacks, but not as strong with the tip drill. For one there isn't a lot of quality shooters from the point. And conversely we are vulnerable with some smaller d-man to being beaten to the net.

I think video is much more of a factor than analytics.

 

[voyageur]

Paul: Hey Chevy, Nate's not looking great and I want to see what we have with these kids.
Chevy: Alright Paul I'll make it happen.

You really think that conversation couldn't happen lol.

Thompson is not good at hockey. Gus/Harkins/Vesalainen might not be good at hockey, but they might be good too. Worth a shot.

To make room for who? We were literally just talking about bringing up another defensemen to the active roster lol, so that would be who

Buy why? It's as though you have no sense of roles. Thompson is doing better than Harkins did at 4c. Eventually Harkins will get back in, but he'll have to do better.

Vesalainen didn't do alot. He was given a chance, with injury. Not really convincing.

Gustafsson had a good game with Ves, and those 2 might show up again, when injury does hit. Bring the kids up now, who replaces them with injury. Luoto and Toninato?

On defense, maybe when Forsberg does get waived, if Forsberg gets waived, you see some roster movement.

But Maurice didn't come to camp with a plan to have 3 goalies on the roster, I can tell you that.

So it goes back to waiving Niku to promote someone internally? Do you support that? Why did Chevy sign Niku to a 2 year one way deal if he thought that guy couldn't help the team? Is that Maurice's fault? I'm sure there is some kind of internal effort to keep a European contingent on this team, to keep Ehlers happy in his environment, is that bad management?

 

[JetsWillFly4Ever]

Buy why? It's as though you have no sense of roles. Thompson is doing better than Harkins did at 4c. Eventually Harkins will get back in, but he'll have to do better.

Vesalainen didn't do alot. He was given a chance, with injury. Not really convincing.

Gustafsson had a good game with Ves, and those 2 might show up again, when injury does hit. Bring the kids up now, who replaces them with injury. Luoto and Toninato?

On defense, maybe when Forsberg does get waived, if Forsberg gets waived, you see some roster movement.

But Maurice didn't come to camp with a plan to have 3 goalies on the roster, I can tell you that.

So it goes back to waiving Niku to promote someone internally? Do you support that? Why did Chevy sign Niku to a 2 year one way deal if he thought that guy couldn't help the team? Is that Maurice's fault? I'm sure there is some kind of internal effort to keep a European contingent on this team, to keep Ehlers happy in his environment, is that bad management?

No, it doesn't. We only have Forsberg because we lost Comrie on waivers. We got Comrie back on waivers and he is eligible to be on taxi squad or Moose. Why we have 5 goalies on the roster who could play in the NHL in a pinch is beyond me. Forsberg is an easy waive candidate.

Thompson is doing nothing Harkins can't do. There is no reason for him to be playing. Harkins goes in, you still have Gus and Ves not in, why would we go to Luoto or Toninato? Strawman argument.

I'm not even going to bother with your last sentence because that is so far off the realm of reality and has nothing to do with anything I have suggested.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Does anyone else find it frustrating that Jets clearly need help on D, and now there are articles about trading for one. But they have 2 prospects that project to that role, 1 of them as done well in the top 4 in the before, and neither are been given a chance. I think either of them could make the team better, I'd like to see them at least get a chance

I assume you are referring to Samberg and Heinola. We also have Stanley and Niku who performed well when given the chance. At least well enough.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

This is illogical and unrealistic. We are midway through a shortened season and we are going to place the expectations on a rookie (one with ZERO NHL experience) to play top pair minutes against McDavid, Matthews, Tkachuk, Draisatl, and on and on.

This is a recipe for disaster, not only for the player in the short term, but going forward. As much as we want help now, and we see the potential of these guys, developing them properly is more important to the Winnipeg Jets of the next 10 years, than it is to play a gamble. Besides, if they did come in and play, they'd be playing a lower role and where do you think our glut of 5,6,7 guys will be? Yup, in the top 4 where they already are.

I don't think he meant playing either of them in the top 4. Just bump Beaulieu to the PB.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Drives me crazy that the Jets struggle along with Beaulieu, Poolman and Forbort playing above their capabilities, with two terrific young D playing very well in the AHL.

Last night, Beaulieu was a catastrophe again. Poolman had a couple of really bad plays that led to the Habs' second goal, opening the flood gates. His stretch passes were awful, leading to unnecessary icings and stopping transition. He'd be okay on a third pair, but not a top pair.

Yup. Poolman is a good 3RD.

Beaulieu is not a good 3LD. I'm assuming Poolman is playing top pair because DeMelo is being used to support Beau. Beau out, Stanley/Niku in. Poolman to play with them. DeMelo to play with Morrissey. Better already.

While we are at it, lets bring Samberg up for a game or two. See what he looks like at 3LD.

We have nothing to lose.