Player Discussion: Winnipeg Jets Defense

[Whileee]

Did you watch Stanley's game in Calgary? No protection in matchups. He got eaten up. How does Stanley get on the roster? Waiving Forsberg would be the easy answer, but they haven't. Is that Maurice's fault too?

How the hell did we win so many games with Beaulieu in the lineup, if Beaulieu is as terrible as you say? Morrissey has allowed more goals against in the 5 on 5 differential, and more goal against on the PK. I mean is it just Pionk, Forbort, and De Melo carrying us? It's the team playing as a team.

Jets have won with Beaulieu in the line-up with good goaltending some games, and generally highly skilled forwards, and Pionk driving very good results.

Beaulieu gets eaten up every game. How would putting Stanley or Niku or Samberg or Heinola in the line-up hurt them? Jets won 7 games with Stanley in the line-up (7-5-1), including 2-1-1 vs. Calgary. Samberg and Heinola are both better than Stanley, in my view.

I agree that Morrissey has struggled, but he has a much better track record of effective play. He's been bounced around with partners and positions, and needs a stable partner for the type of usage he gets. That's not Beaulieu.

In any case, I doubt I will persuade you about Beaulieu, and I'm sure that my opinion about him and his usage won't change, so no need to continue the back-and-forth. We've both stated our views. You may have the last word, if you'd like.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You can shoot and still not score. There's a goalie that stands between the pipes. Quality of shots is very important. If you look at the recent trend, teams have been attacking the Jets with tip ins. A clean shot with no traffic is always less dangerous than a shot with traffic. The other kind of good shot is a win on a cycle, because eventually you break down the defense, to create a scoring space. The Jets are great at transition speed attacks, cycle attacks, but not as strong with the tip drill. For one there isn't a lot of quality shooters from the point. And conversely we are vulnerable with some smaller d-man to being beaten to the net.

I think video is much more of a factor than analytics.

But over very large samples all of those factors become smoothed out. Corsi is no good looking at very small periods of time.

Video doesn't replace analytics. Analytics doesn't replace video. Corsi may not tell you what you are doing right or wrong. If will show if what you are doing is right or wrong.

Have bad Corsi? Maybe video will show you why and what to change to get it better.

Maybe Jets would get more tip-ins if they had men in front of the net more often. As a rule, they spend little time there. Never mind the tips, how about screening the goalies a little more?

 

[HannuJ]

Maybe Jets would get more tip-ins if they had men in front of the net more often. As a rule, they spend little time there. Never mind the tips, how about screening the goalies a little more?

not saying that we don't screen the goalies enough, but pinball hockey is booooring hockey

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

People are blaming Helle for a bounce off the stanchion that goes directly into the slot.

Sounds about right. This place sometimes, man.

Have to give him a pass on that one, much as I might hate to.

We might say he was a bit too quick to commit to it, but truth is he probably was doing the correct thing and got a bad bounce. It was only 1 goal out of 7.

But he is weak at puck handling, indecisive.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Looks like the Jets have made a decision that Heinola and Samberg will play with the Moose this year no matter how bad the D plays, next year they will be given every chance to make the team and contribute, not what I would of done as in all probability 3 of the D that played last night will not be here next year

But Mau won't play 2 rookies next year. 1 of them will move up. To get both into the everyday lineup next year, one needs to make it this year.

 

[bustamente]

But Mau won't play 2 rookies next year. 1 of them will move up. To get both into the everyday lineup next year, one needs to make it this year.

If this team misses the playoffs it might not be his decision, I do agree though that he and or management might see a problem starting 2 rookie's in any given season but that just might be the scenario next year.

 

[TEH FIRST NOEL]

Hainsey > Beaulieu
Hainsey > Demelo

...even won a cup...

 

[voyageur]

But over very large samples all of those factors become smoothed out. Corsi is no good looking at very small periods of time.

Video doesn't replace analytics. Analytics doesn't replace video. Corsi may not tell you what you are doing right or wrong. If will show if what you are doing is right or wrong.

Have bad Corsi? Maybe video will show you why and what to change to get it better.

Maybe Jets would get more tip-ins if they had men in front of the net more often. As a rule, they spend little time there. Never mind the tips, how about screening the goalies a little more?

I think our Corsi went in the shitter with two bad games. Cumulatively it looks bad, but it's not really indicative of how we have played this year, in my opinion. I think we're in agreement on the rest.

 

[Ducky10]

Holy f***, Morrissey is just trying to freaking survive out there playing with the likes of Beaulieu and to a lesser extent Poolman against the leagues best for top minutes every night, mainly on his wrong side to pile on. The Jets are seriously effed if anything happens to him so I’m willing to cut him some slack for playing more positionally and not recklessly throwing himself around.

Play him on the left, put Demelo on his right and give him a fighting chance. Keep Pionk and Bort together and throw Poolman and Stanley out there in a sheltered role. I’m not sure things could be any worse than they currently are, so the downside here is lost on me. Mo is not optimizing his d core, he’s watering it down in his warped way of balancing things.

It fascinates me how quickly he changes certain things if they don’t show short term results, while at the same time sticking with things that clearly don’t work over and over and over again.

 

[surixon]

Holy f***, Morrissey is just trying to freaking survive out there playing with the likes of Beaulieu and to a lesser extent Poolman against the leagues best for top minutes every night, mainly on his wrong side to pile on. The Jets are seriously effed if anything happens to him so I’m willing to cut him some slack for playing more positionally and not recklessly throwing himself around.

Play him on the left, put Demelo on his right and give him a fighting chance. Keep Pionk and Bort together and throw Poolman and Stanley out there in a sheltered role. I’m not sure things could be any worse than they currently are, so the downside here is lost on me. Mo is not optimizing his d core, he’s watering it down in his warped way of balancing things.

It fascinates me how quickly he changes certain things if they don’t show short term results, while at the same time sticking with things that clearly don’t work over and over and over again.

Well said, I actually haven't been that dissapointed with Morrissey's individual play the last couple of weeks. He is playing solid hockey but he isn't getting much help with his partners so he's not being as risky offensively, nor is he taking himself out of position to throw big hits or over commit physically. No player on the team has been put in a bigger position to fail then him the last few years, no wonder he's struggling to carry bottom pairing and worse dmen. Get him a top 4 RD to play with and he looks instantly better imo.

 

[voyageur]

No, it doesn't. We only have Forsberg because we lost Comrie on waivers. We got Comrie back on waivers and he is eligible to be on taxi squad or Moose. Why we have 5 goalies on the roster who could play in the NHL in a pinch is beyond me. Forsberg is an easy waive candidate.

Thompson is doing nothing Harkins can't do. There is no reason for him to be playing. Harkins goes in, you still have Gus and Ves not in, why would we go to Luoto or Toninato? Strawman argument.

I'm not even going to bother with your last sentence because that is so far off the realm of reality and has nothing to do with anything I have suggested.

For the past 2 weeks, that's the only way Stanley would have got in. To waive Niku. Or Thompson, but that's a pipe dream. Especially since Thompson only allowed his first 5 on 5 goal against in last games debacle. That's something Harkins wasn't doing, and that was playing with the "phenom" Vesalainen.

Seems like the change stabilized us, and Thompson has been good on the draw since coming back, which is predictable.

Now I agree with Comrie done his quarantine, the automatic move would be to place Forsberg on waivers, but I don't know if he is having a positive impact off the ice, with our other Europeans. But that's the available spot. Still doesn't change that Maurice prefers to carry 7 d-men on his roster, but opens the door a little for some of the prospects.

Samberg being moved to his strong side seems to have improved his play, so maybe he jumps the queue. He's the guy we were all expecting to have a roster spot to start the year, until Niku was signed to a one way contract, and it became evident that it wouldn't be an opening day spot. Maybe it's Stanley, but if you are trying to convince me we are going to be a markedly better team with Stanley than Beaulieu, I'm not sold. It's possible, but Stanley is a worse skater, bear in mind. And if neither he nor Morrisey can step up on the PK, that could be a real problem.

I wouldn't mind seeing

Morrissey-De Melo (who weren't good to start the year, but were good to finish last year)
Forbort-Pionk
Samberg-Poolman

when Samberg is ready. But I am quite sure that our organization isn't messing this up, taking time to develop their players. It's frustrating because every time Beaulieu has a bad game, you'll read about it, if he has a good one like the first Montreal game, you will not read about it. He's the guy with the target from fans. Even Mark Stuart didn't get it so bad. And we were bad in those days, not like now.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

not saying that we don't screen the goalies enough, but pinball hockey is booooring hockey

If that's all you get, yes. But we could stand a little more of it.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If this team misses the playoffs it might not be his decision, I do agree though that he and or management might see a problem starting 2 rookie's in any given season but that just might be the scenario next year.

I'm not ready to start talking about missing the PO - yet. One lopsided loss, 7-3 in our last 10.

But we play TML 9 times in our last 32 games. The wheels could fall off. Maybe. Or not. I'll stick with not for a while longer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think our Corsi went in the shitter with two bad games. Cumulatively it looks bad, but it's not really indicative of how we have played this year, in my opinion. I think we're in agreement on the rest.

Corsi doesn't work from game to game. It is all about large samples.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think the aftermath of an isolated blowout loss is the time to change course for a team that sits 7th in the league in P%.

It's obvious that the plan is to continue to mature Heinola and Samberg in the AHL and insert them both into the lineup some time in the second half of the season. It may be an ELC decision for Heinola, but Samberg will stay or leave based on his own merits. The Jets are giving him the best chance to succeed by not rushing the process.

I'll buy that - for now. Samberg needs to move up before much longer.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Poolman had a rough game last night but he's been pretty decent for the most part... not quite first pairing talent though

Not 2nd pairing either, but good on the 3rd.

 

[Jet]

I don't think he meant playing either of them in the top 4. Just bump Beaulieu to the PB.

Right - and I totally get the chances that Heinola or Samberg would quickly play better than Beaulieu. However, that doesn't really solve for our problem, which is a lack of a defense corps anchor. It would just further clog our 5,6,7 spot on the big club, and take away from one of both of those players big needs right now; NA pro experience. Not only playing the Jets systems, but dealing with the physical demands of the schedule and gaining confidence, playing in all situations. They'd end up taking a spot that we have like 4 or 5 guys that could do it competently, and stunting their growth at the same time (sheltered minutes, low minutes, no special teams).

In my mind, Stanley is the guy that needs to come in for Beau. He came in and showed well, and he's in a spot where he needs to start playing here to see what we've got with him. If the Jets really want to improve the D, it will be through a top 2, experienced defender, which I just don't see us doing this year for a variety of reasons.

I'm starting to think this year is a 'see what we can do year' - knowing that we should be getting some top end D talent starting next season.

 

[DRW204]

Stanley played V well in a bottom-pair role. you still need good players that post passable to strong results lower down the line up. I think it's clear Heinola and Samberg ain't coming up this year. Sub-in Stanley for Beaulieu. Put Demelo on the top pair. i think that the best D line up sans Heinola

 

[Jet]

Stanley played V well in a bottom-pair role. you still need good players that post passable to strong results lower down the line up. I think it's clear Heinola and Samberg ain't coming up this year. Sub-in Stanley for Beaulieu. Put Demelo on the top pair. i think that the best D line up sans Heinola

This is exactly what should be done. At least Maurice got Beau off the top pair but I don't know why he doesn't want to go back to what was our most solid pair last year - Jomo and the Mellow Man

 

[Jet]

Holy f***, Morrissey is just trying to freaking survive out there playing with the likes of Beaulieu and to a lesser extent Poolman against the leagues best for top minutes every night, mainly on his wrong side to pile on. The Jets are seriously effed if anything happens to him so I’m willing to cut him some slack for playing more positionally and not recklessly throwing himself around.

Play him on the left, put Demelo on his right and give him a fighting chance. Keep Pionk and Bort together and throw Poolman and Stanley out there in a sheltered role. I’m not sure things could be any worse than they currently are, so the downside here is lost on me. Mo is not optimizing his d core, he’s watering it down in his warped way of balancing things.

It fascinates me how quickly he changes certain things if they don’t show short term results, while at the same time sticking with things that clearly don’t work over and over and over again.

I agree with what you're saying but Morrissey, though better lately has really struggled with the puck and decision making. Of course, some of that is partner-dependent, but he's doing uncharactaristically bad things more and more (overskating the puck when theres no pressure, not receiving or making passes cleanly, hesitating in his decision making). Playing with a guy he seems to trust in Demelo might help with that.

 

[DRW204]

Playing with Beaulieu doesn't help but Morrissey individually does not look good either. Playing with Beaulieu definitely bleeds into his overall stats of course. But just from my eye test, he doesn't look good himself.

how the hell did Trouba carry Beau to passable results (and is now basura in NYR)?

 

[Adam da bomb]

Playing with Beaulieu doesn't help but Morrissey individually does not look good either. Playing with Beaulieu definitely bleeds into his overall stats of course. But just from my eye test, he doesn't look good himself.

how the hell did Trouba carry Beau to passable results (and is now basura in NYR)?

Is it the same beau? Is it chemistry and fit? Is Trouba better than Mo but everyone looks bad in NY?

 

[DRW204]

Is it the same beau? Is it chemistry and fit? Is Trouba better than Mo but everyone looks bad in NY?

all good questions, and probably factors into the results.

Is it the same beau? idk, was he this garbage when we acquired him in 18-19? guy was being healthy scratched in Buffalo of all places 2 years ago and is now a top pair here.
Is it chemistry and fit? perhaps.... idk if Morrissey can carry a pair. He's always played with a pretty good partner like Buff or Trouba. Trouba has had partners which he had to essentially carry as a Jet (ie: Stuart, Beau)
Is Trouba better than Mo but everyone looks bad in NY? i do think trouba as a jet was/is>morrissey, and i do think nyr has been traditionally a terrible team defensively which bleeds into his overall stats.

 

[Guffman]

You have got that exactly backwards. Analytics doesn't try to break it down. Just the opposite. Analytics aggregates all those very small, very fast events into their net effects. Just by counting shot attempts you see the product of all those events. They all have either a positive or a negative effect on shot attempts or else they were irrelevant. It is actually very simple, at least at that level. And it works.

Mark Schiefele recently scoffed at analytics. He didn’t think that was an appropriate way to judge play. Why do you guys think better than a hockey nerd like Schiefele?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Right - and I totally get the chances that Heinola or Samberg would quickly play better than Beaulieu. However, that doesn't really solve for our problem, which is a lack of a defense corps anchor. It would just further clog our 5,6,7 spot on the big club, and take away from one of both of those players big needs right now; NA pro experience. Not only playing the Jets systems, but dealing with the physical demands of the schedule and gaining confidence, playing in all situations. They'd end up taking a spot that we have like 4 or 5 guys that could do it competently, and stunting their growth at the same time (sheltered minutes, low minutes, no special teams).

In my mind, Stanley is the guy that needs to come in for Beau. He came in and showed well, and he's in a spot where he needs to start playing here to see what we've got with him. If the Jets really want to improve the D, it will be through a top 2, experienced defender, which I just don't see us doing this year for a variety of reasons.

I'm starting to think this year is a 'see what we can do year' - knowing that we should be getting some top end D talent starting next season.

Of course it doesn't strengthen our top pair. But it strengthens our bottom pair. Take what you can get.

I think Stanley and Niku should be sharing that job.

I'm not sure we will be getting any top end D talent next year. Heinola has the most potential. Will he be ready for 2nd pair next year? Or will he spend the season on the 3rd pair? Then comes Samberg. What level is he likely to play at? What happens to Stanley and Niku? Will Maurice have any more than 1 of those 4 guys in the lineup at any one time? He will want to start them on the 3rd pair and he won't have 2 of them paired together.

We should be seeing a progression of integrating the young players into the lineup one at a time. We are seeing nothing of the kind. So far, none of them has been able to take a job away from Beaulieu. That does not bode well for the future.