Speculation: Wings spare parts at the deadline (Actually, the tank thread)

[Reddwit]

Sorry guys I just don’t see a path forward for this rebuild and core of a team unless we have a superstar player. How are we gonna get that? No clue, but being a middling team in the 10-16 lane isn’t how you do it. Are we poised to make a big jump next year? I don’t see it. And I don’t think we have anyone in the pipeline to change things. I think our potential right now with our core is 6/7/8th seed team. Teams like Buffalo and NJ are just gonna have way more high end talent than us. How are we gonna change that? The only way I see is tanking, because we aren’t getting that talent in later rounds like old detroit teams.

Same. Feels like we’re on a Columbus trajectory.

 

[Roy S]

According to Carolina's own website they only have 1, Margaret Cunniff but the asst. GM seems to be numbers guy. He slipped through the cracks from my first search.

Anyhow i still don't see the point having half a platoon of analytics in the front office. Not everything can not be read from the numbers and that's why Dubas & Chayka are/were failures as GMs.

Exactly what kind shakeup you want? In my first post i listed every person(22+Verbeek), who Yzerman has hired since 2019. Lot of changes in my opinion and what comes to Draper, Horcoff, Cleary, Fischer, Campbell maybe they are good at their jobs and Yzerman don't see the point fire/demote them.

And pretty much Horcoff and Draper are the only ones who got promoted, Fischer, Cleary and Campbell are in the same roles as they were under Holland. Draper was already working in scouting department and maybe he was the one who actually found talent. Horcoff was promoted because Verbeek left, maybe Yzerman see's something same in Horcoff what he saw in BriseBois.

As for the draft strategy, is there even one except no d-men 6'0''? Cossa, James, Hanas, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Buium, Tuomisto, Mastrosimone are all more and less swing for the fences picks and naturally every mid/late round pick are those as well. BPA is not a bad strategy to go in to draft, surplus players can be later traded to fill the need.

Which ones?

Dubas wasn't an analytics guy. That's a serious misconception and it seems like people/media just made it because he was young and/or that is what Toronto fans wanted to believe. But, he didn't have any background in numbers- it is true the Leafs have a decent sized department. I'm not sure how much they actually lean on it, though. On the Hurricanes site, they also list Kevin Han. If you go through LinkedIn, you'll find more. Actually, the Wings added an engineer from the Carolina team recently that I just saw (Matt Walter), so it is good to see they are adding more staff there. I'd like to keep seeing that continue. I find that encouraging that Yzerman is adding staff there.

Dylan James was a swing for the fence pick? He's pretty much the anti swing for the fence pick and was widely considered a reach where he was selected and a low ceiling player. Of the ones you listed, Buchelnikov would be a good example. Lombardi from last draft would be too. I guess Cossa is too, but I don't like taking goalies in the first round so I thought that was a bad pick in general, although one I thought was forgivable because Yzerman got Vasilevskiy in the first round in TB and may have felt he had a good ability to identify high-end goalie talent.

The bad contracts similar to Holland's era from last offseason? Copp and Chiarot. Chiarot is a definite to be a terrible contract and was the moment it was signed. Copp still has a chance to bounce back, but still was a very risky signing. I think it's more of a signing a contender would make if you are looking for a piece to get incrementally better and not a rebuilding team. I'm hoping the upcoming offseason is not a repeat of the last one because they can't afford it with Larkin and Hronek and Raymond and Seider all likely signing large extensions over the next two years. Those 4 could total $30 million a year in salary by 24-25, so they can't afford another $11 million this offseason handed out on long term deals to middling players again. It would completely deplete their cap space and really hamstring the organization. As it is, I'd love them to get out of the Chiarot contract in anyway possible, including a buyout if necessary.

 

[dalem177]

Clearly the best option is to beam the entire team, staff, and equipment into deep space, widest possible dispersion, where their molecules can drift forever as incoherent energy fields, never to pollute the environs of the NHL again.

Then move the Coyotes to Ypsilanti, change the name to the Ypsi Tipsies, and the new logo can be a stylized image of the Big Dong water tower on Washtenaw & Cross. The team's motto can be "Just the Tip". Then you'll have a new NHL team in Michigan to spreadsheet about.

It's the only way to be sure.

 

[Oddbob]

IF Michkov was on record saying he would come over next year AND we had the old lottery system where you are guaranteed top 2 as the last place team THEN I would be pissed off we are not tanking hard right now.

BUT given that our most likely scenario for last is #3 AND one of the best players in this draft is on record saying he's not coming over til 2026 AND both Carlsson and Fantilli have greatly exceeded expectations for them going into the season.

Then I just can't really get too mad at how things are.

It isn't even what Michkov is saying, he has a contract already until 2026 in the KHL. So even if he changes his mind he can't come over until then.

 

[Oddbob]

Sorry guys I just don’t see a path forward for this rebuild and core of a team unless we have a superstar player. How are we gonna get that? No clue, but being a middling team in the 10-16 lane isn’t how you do it. Are we poised to make a big jump next year? I don’t see it. And I don’t think we have anyone in the pipeline to change things. I think our potential right now with our core is 6/7/8th seed team. Teams like Buffalo and NJ are just gonna have way more high end talent than us. How are we gonna change that? The only way I see is tanking, because we aren’t getting that talent in later rounds like old detroit teams.

We are set to finish in the 22-26 area of the standings, so that isn't exactly close to 10-16.

 

[Oddbob]

All fair points, however, depends on the team in the position and the GM making the calls.
Sieder was considered "off the board" pick" at the time.
Luck is in the later rounds, you have to nail your 1st round picks, which SY so far did,

Actually TB is good, because Yzerman hit on his later picks. Guys like Point and Kucherov, neither a 1st round pick. His 1st round run in TB is kind of hit and miss.

Doesn't matter how good or bad a GM and his scouts are, they ALL still need a lot of good fortune to get really awesome players.

 

[Pavels Dog]

3- Matt Duchene, 2nd round Ryan O'Reilly - both turned into many assets
17 -Joey Hishon, bust
2 - Gabriel Landeskog, key contributor
41 -Mitchell Heard, bust
1 - Nathan MacKinnon, key contributor
23 - Conner Bleackley, bust?
10 -Mikko Rantanen, key contributor
10 - Tyson Jost
4 - Cale Makar, key contributor


See what I mean?
With the exception of Rantanen at 10, all their Cup winning stars went in the top 4!
And I was too lazy to go look up what Duchene and O'Reilly returns were.
That's a LOT of top 4 picks the Wings don't have yet.

2008 Wings were banking on the pre-cap riches.

You're missing the point. Colorado's rebuild wasn't a linear path of being in the bottom 3-5 every year until they had their pieces. They loaded, reloaded, re-tooled and finally became a cup contender. The idea that a rebuilding team has to wait until all the pieces are in place to even attempt to improve the NHL roster is not based on real evidence of successful rebuilds.

Oh, and don't talk about "pre-cap riches" while trying to model our rebuild on teams that got their top picks back when the lottery actually favored the bad teams to win those top 3-4 picks.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

On the Hurricanes site, they also list Kevin Han. If you go through LinkedIn, you'll find more. Actually, the Wings added an engineer from the Carolina team recently that I just saw (Matt Walter), so it is good to see they are adding more staff there.

That is correct. The change in titles came from promotions, but Kevin Kan is part of the Analytics team and started off as a "data engineer". Matt Walter left for the Wings and the Canes replaced him with Adam Bishop. I know for a fact that the Canes have a minimum of 4 on their analytics team (Tulsky, Cunniff, Kan, Bishop).

 

[Pavels Dog]

Sorry guys I just don’t see a path forward for this rebuild and core of a team unless we have a superstar player. How are we gonna get that? No clue, but being a middling team in the 10-16 lane isn’t how you do it.

Where is this 10-16 lane coming from?

We've drafted 9th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 6th, 8th and if the draft happened today we'd be 9th.
Shouldn't we worry about drafting 10-16 when it actually happens?

Not to mention 10th, 11th, 12th type of range is where you frequently find players like Kopitar, Boldy, Caufield etc etc. It's not like talent drastically drops off exactly at #9.

It's a legit concern for sure but you can't really manufacture luck. We just need to keep drafting and developing and making some smart trades and eventually something will materialize. Whether it's a Lombardi or Buchelnikov becoming a star, a Kasper or Raymond exceeding expectations, or simply that we'll have to create a team that's deeper than others and wins as a collective.. there are ways.

 

[norrisnick]

Where is this 10-16 lane coming from?

We've drafted 9th, 6th, 6th, 4th, 6th, 8th and if the draft happened today we'd be 9th.
Shouldn't we worry about drafting 10-16 when it actually happens?

Not to mention 10th, 11th, 12th type of range is where you frequently find players like Kopitar, Boldy, Caufield etc etc. It's not like talent drastically drops off exactly at #9.

It's a legit concern for sure but you can't really manufacture luck. We just need to keep drafting and developing and making some smart trades and eventually something will materialize. Whether it's a Lombardi or Buchelnikov becoming a star, a Kasper or Raymond exceeding expectations, or simply that we'll have to create a team that's deeper than others and wins as a collective.. there are ways.

12th is probably more accurate due to point percentage. We're in a 6-way tie for fewest games played. And the only team below us in the standings with the same number of games played in Chicago.

 

[SantosHalper]

If you go through LinkedIn, you'll find more.

I'm good, thanks.

Actually, the Wings added an engineer from the Carolina team recently that I just saw (Matt Walter), so it is good to see they are adding more staff there. I'd like to keep seeing that continue. I find that encouraging that Yzerman is adding staff there.

Well we can add him to list as well and so i guess we could agree that Yzerman has shaken up the front office?

Dylan James was a swing for the fence pick? He's pretty much the anti swing for the fence pick and was widely considered a reach where he was selected and a low ceiling player.

imo reach is a swing for the fences pick, it depends how you define it. Picking BPA is naturally more "safe way", if you can call it that. Like Wallinder and Berggren for example, they were BPA picks and relatively safe picks. And for example James and Buchelnikov are both in my opinion reach/swing for the fence picks.

The bad contracts similar to Holland's era from last offseason? Copp and Chiarot. Chiarot is a definite to be a terrible contract and was the moment it was signed. Copp still has a chance to bounce back, but still was a very risky signing. I think it's more of a signing a contender would make if you are looking for a piece to get incrementally better and not a rebuilding team. I'm hoping the upcoming offseason is not a repeat of the last one because they can't afford it with Larkin and Hronek and Raymond and Seider all likely signing large extensions over the next two years. Those 4 could total $30 million a year in salary by 24-25, so they can't afford another $11 million this offseason handed out on long term deals to middling players again. It would completely deplete their cap space and really hamstring the organization. As it is, I'd love them to get out of the Chiarot contract in anyway possible, including a buyout if necessary.

I disagree, Yzerman was improving the team and the target was to fight for playoffs spot. Yzerman wasn't looking to tank this season, but Bertuzzi's injuries, Vrana's problems, couple of sophomore slumps, Copp's underwelming start(due to injury) and Ned compelety losing his game cost us the playoff race. Even as a rebuilding team a step forward has to be taken or you can keep rebuilding for ever, draft lottery doesn't give any guarantees. Copp & Chiarot are proven veterans in their prime who take the pressure away from the kids and brings more value on ice than vets who are on their last legs.

Chiarot's deal ends right before at least one of the Wallinder(most likely)/Johansson/Buium is ready play in the NHL. Term is not bad and cost wise it doesn't effect salary cap control in a long run. Players similar to Chiarot, in style, role and stat wise gets paid roughly in the same terrain. for example Marcus Pettersson 4,025$, Mike Matheson 4,875$, Brian Dumoulin 4,100$, Jamie Oleksiak 4,600$, Tyler Myers 6,000$, Erik Gudbranson 4,000$, Chris Tanev 4,500$, Connor Murphy 4,400$, Josh Manson 4,500$, Nikita Zaytsev 4,500$ and Matthias Samuelsson just signed 7 x 4,285$. From the UFA market Chiarot's 4,750$ is just fine for a proven top-4 d-man, buy-out is extremely unlikely and in Tampa Yzerman had the likes of Brewer and Coburn in the line-up for a long time.

Same thing for Copp, he get's paid roughly the same what the other similar players(style, role, stats). Phil Danault 5,500$, Charlie Coyle 5,250$, Vinny Trocheck 5,625$, Mikael Backlund 5,350$, Jordan Staal 6,000$ and Dylan Strome just signed 5 x 5 deal. Red Wings center prospect pool is still nearly empty, Copp is going to needed for long time. Especially if Bertuzzi gets traded, Ras probably moves to wing.

Yzerman is playing hard ball with Larkin as we speak, there is no way that Red Wings going to have problems with the salary cap. Yzerman knows how to keep strong cap control.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Clearly the best option is to beam the entire team, staff, and equipment into deep space, widest possible dispersion, where their molecules can drift forever as incoherent energy fields, never to pollute the environs of the NHL again.

Then move the Coyotes to Ypsilanti, change the name to the Ypsi Tipsies, and the new logo can be a stylized image of the Big Dong water tower on Washtenaw & Cross. The team's motto can be "Just the Tip". Then you'll have a new NHL team in Michigan to spreadsheet about.

It's the only way to be sure.

This is our only path forward. And then their first playoff slogan can be "Brick Dick Energy"

 

[jkutswings]

This is our only path forward. And then their first playoff slogan can be "Brick Dick Energy"

That's a prickly thing to say.

 

[Gniwder]

imo reach is a swing for the fences pick, it depends how you define it. Picking BPA is naturally more "safe way", if you can call it that. Like Wallinder and Berggren for example, they were BPA picks and relatively safe picks. And for example James and Buchelnikov are both in my opinion reach/swing for the fence picks.

Dylan James is like a attempting a bunt single with your lead off batter, not swing for the fences. Swinging for the fences implies high potential (homerun).

I actually wish they would swing for the fences. Their 2nd pick every year is a complete FOMO pick with low potential.

 

[Frk It]

I actually wish they would swing for the fences. Their 2nd pick every year is a complete FOMO pick with low potential.

Wallinder???

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Wallinder???

And Buchelnikov, and Johansson, and Berggren. I think you can count Hanas as well.

 

[Frk It]

And Buchelnikov, and Johansson, and Berggren. I think you can count Hanas as well.

I think he is talking about this current regime.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I think he is talking about this current regime.

Aside from Berggren those picks are from the current regime. I think this is just another case of old guy yelling at clouds.

 

[Frk It]

Aside from Berggren those picks are from the current regime. I think this is just another case of old guy yelling at clouds.

I also noticed he conveniently tried to narrow it down to "2nd picks", lol.

I also would argue that the Cossa pick was a pick made chasing upside, despite how poorly it has worked out so far.

 

[norrisnick]

There is nothing subtle to parse out here. It's just being salty because the Wings didn't draft A2 Ra2

 

[Gniwder]

And Buchelnikov, and Johansson, and Berggren. I think you can count Hanas as well.

I said second pick, not second round pick. Plus Berggren was a Holland pick, lol.

Hanas was a FOMO pick, Wallinder wasn't, he was picked right around expected.

 

[norrisnick]

I said second pick, not second round pick. Plus Berggren was a Holland pick, lol.

Hanas was a FOMO pick, Wallinder wasn't, he was picked right around expected.

Hanas was ranked 58th by EP (easiest available) and drafted at 55.
Wallinder was ranked 47th by EP (easiest available) and drafted at 32.

Just what were the Wings afraid of missing out with Hanas that they somehow weren't with Wallinder?

As an aside, Niederback was picked in between them at 51 after being ranked 27th.

 

[Frk It]

Hanas was a FOMO pick

 

[Roy S]

Historically, about 34% of 2nd round picks play more than 99 games in the NHL. The Wings have had 9 2nd round picks under Yzerman, so you'd like to see them hit on at least 3 of them. I think the best odds at the moment would be Johansson, Wallinder (very good odds) and Buchelnikov. I think the only real reaches based on consensus rankings at the time were Tuomisto and James. Buchelnikov was off the radar but that was a lot different circumstance than the others.

 

[Frk It]

Just what were the Wings afraid of missing out with Hanas that they somehow weren't with Wallinder?

What if I told you all picks were FOMO picks?