Speculation: Wings spare parts at the deadline (Actually, the tank thread)

[Rzombo4 prez]

I love this new narrative about the Wings "loading up" in the free agency market, declaring the rebuild over and gunning for the playoffs this year. That is some of the dumbest shit I have read on here in a very long time. It is right up there with the clown who thinks our lack of analytics department is why we are missing a top-line center and top-pair defensemen. The Wings literally could not have iced an NHL roster without signing free agents. The only free agents we actually signed are a bunch of league average middle-six forwards who don't move the needle either direction. We didn't sign top-line forwards or top-pair defensemen to expensive 8-year deals. Even with all these free agents we are playing like hot ass.

The thing with rebuilds is that you don't really know that they are over until they are over.

Regarding the topic at hand, you listen to all trade offers on all players. Some you discard really, really quick, others you act on really, really quick and many others fall between those two extremes. That much will never really change.

 

[Frk It]

They only traded Dach because they had soured on him but I wouldn't have had any problem with trading guys like Bert, Vrana, Zadina, Ras last summer for worthwhile futures. It's not a competition to see who can field the worst roster, more like not being afraid to just let the chips fall where they may

What’s the harm in letting the chips fall where they may when you are operating under a shit lottery system?

If the lottery was 75/25 for picks 1/2, I’m sure we would approach this differently.

You guys literally want us to operate in ways that don’t make sense with the system we’re working with.

 

[Roy S]

Clearly in Yzerman's mind it does.

Tampa has a department, but Carolina have 1 guy and we have 2 guys. And Leafs have one as a GM and it haven't help them one bit. Analytics guys are a nice add, but their affect is overrated and real hockey guys still run this game.

Bryan Campbell, Director of Statistical Analysis & Hockey Administration
- "focusing on advanced statistical analysis and analytics in the areas of salary trends, contract valuations, free agent market acquisitions, trades and other areas, as well as comparative research for contract negotiations and salary arbitrations, collective bargaining agreement administration and compliance and coordinating player transactions. He also scouts games locally at the professional, collegiate and junior levels."

Dan Kosinski, Hockey Operations Data Analyst
- no job description in his bio but the title says it all.

So they should all get fired?

This is false. Carolina has 4 members of their analytical department, including their assistant GM and maybe additional ones if you search through LinkedIn. They are one of the more analytically friendly teams in the league, as well as Seattle, New Jersey and several others. This is a little old as the Wings have one more now and New Jersey added a lot, but this is a decent overview around the league:

NHL Analytics | Behind the Benches

Behind the Benches: A public database on what hockey coaches do and for how long they've been doing it. NHL | AHL | CWHL | NWHL | NCAA

behindthebenches.com

The Wings are one of the more traditional, old school organizations in the NHL. I was hoping Yzerman would modernize the organization but that hasn't happened yet. I'm not sure if they all need to be fired, but I would like to see some shakeup and to modernize the organization and shift the draft strategy to be oriented towards skill and high-end upside and to take more swings for the fences. I'd also, in general, like to avoid signing decent players to long term deals around $5 million or more year. We just got through that with Holland and it is repeating again unfortunately. But, overall, I do think the Wings were one of the worst run organizations during the end of the Holland era and it seems odd that so many of the members of the front office have stayed that whole time and a number have been promoted. We're also starting to see some of the same decision making creep up, so I'm hoping it reverses.

 

[Frk It]

I love this new narrative about the Wings "loading up" in the free agency market, declaring the rebuild over and gunning for the playoffs this year. That is some of the dumbest shit I have read on here in a very long time. It is right up there with the clown who thinks our lack of analytics department is why we are missing a top-line center and top-pair defensemen. The Wings literally could not have iced an NHL roster without signing free agents. The only free agents we actually signed are a bunch of league average middle-six forwards who don't move the needle either direction. We didn't sign top-line forwards or top-pair defensemen to expensive 8-year deals. Even with all these free agents we are playing like hot ass.

The thing with rebuilds is that you don't really know that they are over until they are over.

Regarding the topic at hand, you listen to all trade offers on all players. Some you discard really, really quick, others you act on really, really quick and many others fall between those two extremes. That much will never really change.

We had barely anyone under contract and a boatload of cap space.

The signings we made were sensible ones to plug holes.

Not a play to finish in the “mushy middle”

 

[Roy S]

I think the Wings need to re-evaluate their scouting plan a little bit more than the people.

I feel like the Wings scouting from the Wright days until now has really evolved a way from taking players with the most skill to taking players with great intangibles. Hakan still takes the occasional skill pick but we almosy never see it with our NA picks. So we get the occasional.

The problem is the Wings weren't lucky enough to draft high enough to ensure that pick with super high forward skills. Instead we got lower picks where we nabbed dmen and safe guys like Kasper and Ras. Even Ray is a pretty safe pick.

I still hate the Cossa pick as I thought that 15 pick would have been a great shot to take on a really skilled forward which would have moved us further along than Cossa I think in the next 5 years.

Being skill risk adverse did start to change a bit last draft with Buch and Lombardi and needs to continue. We have some great intangible guys in Mo, Ray, Larkin (if he stays), Ras, etc. We need some higher end skill to jumpstart this offense some.

As of right now I see in the near future the below team, which means anyone else is fair game for the deadline (especially the forwards). I don't think its burn it down unless we trade Larkin. He's the only potentially available guy that really sets us back.

Ray-Larkin-Blank
Berggy-Kasper- Copp
Vrana-Veleno-Ras
Hanas-Blank-Soder
*Copp and Vrana are untradeable at the moment
Could look like this next year easily. Only major surprise would be Hanas

Seider- Blank (maybe Walman)
Hronek-Ed
Chiarot-(Aljo, Sebrango, Viro, Wallinder)
*Chiarot is untradeable at moment
*Hronek is probably here next year. I don't see Stevie trading him unless its for a major upgrade or until right before he is a UFA.

I agree with this.

 

[drw02]

What’s the harm in letting the chips fall where they may when you are operating under a shit lottery system?

If the lottery was 75/25 for picks 1/2, I’m sure we would approach this differently.

You guys literally want us to operate in ways that don’t make sense with the system we’re working with.

We aren't just talking about 1st overall. As you know there are several pretty nice consolation prizes in the top 4

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

As an aside, The bottom 5 teams of Chicago, Arizona, Columbus, San Jose and Anaheim are likely to get the strongest top 5 picks in an NHL draft since probably 1990 and that makes me very sad.

How does that help the league grow and become bigger in the public eye?

Honestly I don't have a problem with the top picks going to any of those teams except Chicago.

And it's not just reflex hatred of the Blackhawks. After the Kyle Beach situation and slap on the wrist from the league, they could end up with franchise player. Add to that they set up for the most blatant tank I've seen in a while.

 

[Frk It]

We aren't just talking about 1st overall. As you know there are several pretty nice consolation prizes in the top 4

IF Michkov was on record saying he would come over next year AND we had the old lottery system where you are guaranteed top 2 as the last place team THEN I would be pissed off we are not tanking hard right now.

BUT given that our most likely scenario for last is #3 AND one of the best players in this draft is on record saying he's not coming over til 2026 AND both Carlsson and Fantilli have greatly exceeded expectations for them going into the season.

Then I just can't really get too mad at how things are.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I agree with this.

It is an exceptionally simplistic and inaccurate depiction of the game of hockey and the people who play it. Players succeed in the game because they possess a combination of traits and skills. They are never just one thing and they rarely match a singular archetype.

People always make the mistake of thinking of skill in relative rather than absolute terms. The players of a draft class that are truly highly skilled on an absolute basis are gone in the first five or six picks most years. After that they make the mistake of thinking that player X is highly skilled because he shows more individual skill than remaining available options. Being the tallest midget doesn't, however, make you very tall.

If there is one thing you should be focusing on in drafting players it is IQ, not what people generically label "skill."

 

[SantosHalper]

This is false. Carolina has 4 members of their analytical department, including their assistant GM and maybe additional ones if you search through LinkedIn. They are one of the more analytically friendly teams in the league, as well as Seattle, New Jersey and several others.

According to Carolina's own website they only have 1, Margaret Cunniff but the asst. GM seems to be numbers guy. He slipped through the cracks from my first search.

Anyhow i still don't see the point having half a platoon of analytics in the front office. Not everything can not be read from the numbers and that's why Dubas & Chayka are/were failures as GMs.

The Wings are one of the more traditional, old school organizations in the NHL. I was hoping Yzerman would modernize the organization but that hasn't happened yet. I'm not sure if they all need to be fired, but I would like to see some shakeup and to modernize the organization and shift the draft strategy to be oriented towards skill and high-end upside and to take more swings for the fences.

Exactly what kind shakeup you want? In my first post i listed every person(22+Verbeek), who Yzerman has hired since 2019. Lot of changes in my opinion and what comes to Draper, Horcoff, Cleary, Fischer, Campbell maybe they are good at their jobs and Yzerman don't see the point fire/demote them.

And pretty much Horcoff and Draper are the only ones who got promoted, Fischer, Cleary and Campbell are in the same roles as they were under Holland. Draper was already working in scouting department and maybe he was the one who actually found talent. Horcoff was promoted because Verbeek left, maybe Yzerman see's something same in Horcoff what he saw in BriseBois.

As for the draft strategy, is there even one except no d-men 6'0''? Cossa, James, Hanas, Mazur, Buchelnikov, Buium, Tuomisto, Mastrosimone are all more and less swing for the fences picks and naturally every mid/late round pick are those as well. BPA is not a bad strategy to go in to draft, surplus players can be later traded to fill the need.

We're also starting to see some of the same decision making creep up, so I'm hoping it reverses.

Which ones?

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Dead wings spare parts

How about we still have a chance to get in playoffs

Give up the ghost.

 

[jaster]

Remember the 2000s Maple Leafs?
Never good enough to win or bad enough for high picks, just throwing money at free agents?
And they had a superstar Sundin on the roster.
They tried it for years, until they decided it's time to properly rebuild.

We are running into a distinct possibility to be stuck in the same conundrum.
You can try getting incrementally better, hoping to snatch a "Kucherov" or "Point" in later rounds for sure, but it might take years, and it is still dependent on "luck", just like the draft lottery.

That's always a possibility, yes. No matter what route you take, you have to pass through the middle-of-the-pack area, and getting stuck there could happen.... even with the strategy some of you are suggesting. How many Cups does McDavid have? And that's all assuming you hit on the 10% chance of getting a McDavid. To me, it's a route with significantly more potential pitfalls than doing what Yzerman is doing (which, as of yet, isn't really close to what the Leafs did).

 

[jaster]

Seems most people just assume whoever has the best odds will win which is usually not the case. Odds are great at representing what you should see over multiple iterations but in one single iteration any random event is possible, odds can really almost be thrown out the window

They can't run from what they are, masking holes with overpaid UFA's just for the appearance of being slightly more competitive isn't helping them reach their goal of building a perennial contender. Feels more like they're trying to rush the rebuild they said they wouldn't.

Feels like they filled holes last summer with, overall, pretty appropriately-priced middling free agents. Enough to take a small step forward for the sake of the sanity of it's core players. A small enough step to not get curb-stomped to the degree they did last season. To me it didn't feel like anything was rushed.

Would you say the rebuild is over now? Is playoffs the goal next year and beyond? Should we expect more aggressiveness in free agency this summer?

The rebuild is far from over, playoffs should be the goal next season, and free agency for Detroit this summer should be relatively quiet considering they'll have far fewer holes to fill than last off-season.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Don't like this "we're cursed, whoa is me" kind of thinking. Past results have no bearing on future results. Just bc the Wings have had bad luck the past several years doesn't mean they won't have good luck next time.

Statistically you could easily spend 20 years in the bottom 10 without ever winning a lottery. The odds are literally that bad. It's simply not a strategy, it's a prayer, a hope, a wish.
For what it's worth we're still in the Bedard lottery right now. So it's basically a debate about how bad do you think we could have been without Chiarot, and how bad is worth being in order to get a few more % of an opportunity on those lottery balls?

Yeah, "fool", got it. And the "alternate way" is working out so much better, right?
What is it? "Draft higher and Hope"?

Well, the "alternate way" is simply to be a little more competitive, a little higher in the standings, but still build through the draft. If the season ended today we'd get a top 10 pick and a chance at Bedard in the lottery. Small chance, but still.
We have assets to sell at the TDL that we wouldn't have if we didn't add players in the offseason. This can give us extra futures. Kubalik makes Zadina expendable, or can be sold for assets. Copp will allow us to develop Kasper at a good pace instead of rushing him into a #2C role.
This strategy has more paths, more options, and involves Plan A, Plan B, Plan C etc. which an "all-in for Bedard" strategy doesn't.

 

[StargateSG1]

Statistically you could easily spend 20 years in the bottom 10 without ever winning a lottery. The odds are literally that bad. It's simply not a strategy, it's a prayer, a hope, a wish.
For what it's worth we're still in the Bedard lottery right now. So it's basically a debate about how bad do you think we could have been without Chiarot, and how bad is worth being in order to get a few more % of an opportunity on those lottery balls?

Bingo!
Hence you don't wanna be in the mooshy middle during the rebuild.
Need to be in the bottom 3-5.
Even when Colorado "Lost" the lottery, they won Makar

 

[Pavels Dog]

Bingo!
Hence you don't wanna be in the mooshy middle during the rebuild.
Need to be in the bottom 3-5.
Even when Colorado "Lost" the lottery, they won Makar

And when we lost the lottery, we won Raymond. When we lost the lottery, we won Seider. We won Kasper. Edvinsson.
Colorado did not spend 7 straight years drafting in the top 10. They did not tank year after year. Don't use their rebuild as a model if you're not willing to accept that they spent years in the "mushy middle" at many points during their rebuild.

Their highest picks from 2009 to 2017:
3
17
2
41
1
*draft lottery changes*
23
10
10
4

Doesn't exactly look like a team that never took a step forward does it? They also didn't necessarily strategically tank in the best draft years. 2015 and 2016 they drafted 10th.
And as pointed out; they drafted Mackinnon and Landeskog in a time when the lottery was more beneficial for the bottom teams.

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

Sorry guys I just don’t see a path forward for this rebuild and core of a team unless we have a superstar player. How are we gonna get that? No clue, but being a middling team in the 10-16 lane isn’t how you do it. Are we poised to make a big jump next year? I don’t see it. And I don’t think we have anyone in the pipeline to change things. I think our potential right now with our core is 6/7/8th seed team. Teams like Buffalo and NJ are just gonna have way more high end talent than us. How are we gonna change that? The only way I see is tanking, because we aren’t getting that talent in later rounds like old detroit teams.

 

[StargateSG1]

And when we lost the lottery, we won Raymond. When we lost the lottery, we won Seider. We won Kasper. Edvinsson.
Colorado did not spend 7 straight years drafting in the top 10. They did not tank year after year. Don't use their rebuild as a model if you're not willing to accept that they spent years in the "mushy middle" at many points during their rebuild.

Their highest picks from 2009 to 2017:
3 -
17
2
41
1
*draft lottery changes*
23
10
10
4

Doesn't exactly look like a team that never took a step forward does it? They also didn't necessarily strategically tank in the best draft years. 2015 and 2016 they drafted 10th.
And as pointed out; they drafted Mackinnon and Landeskog in a time when the lottery was more beneficial for the bottom teams.

3- Matt Duchene, 2nd round Ryan O'Reilly - both turned into many assets
17 -Joey Hishon, bust
2 - Gabriel Landeskog, key contributor
41 -Mitchell Heard, bust
1 - Nathan MacKinnon, key contributor
23 - Conner Bleackley, bust?
10 -Mikko Rantanen, key contributor
10 - Tyson Jost
4 - Cale Makar, key contributor


See what I mean?
With the exception of Rantanen at 10, all their Cup winning stars went in the top 4!
And I was too lazy to go look up what Duchene and O'Reilly returns were.
That's a LOT of top 4 picks the Wings don't have yet.

 

[Ricelund]

3- Matt Duchene, 2nd round Ryan O'Reilly - both turned into many assets
17 -Joey Hishon, bust
2 - Gabriel Landeskog, key contributor
41 -Mitchell Heard, bust
1 - Nathan MacKinnon, key contributor
23 - Conner Bleackley, bust?
10 -Mikko Rantanen, key contributor
10 - Tyson Jost
4 - Cale Makar, key contributor


See what I mean?
With the exception of Rantanen at 10, all their Cup winning stars went in the top 4!
And I was too lazy to go look up what Duchene and O'Reilly returns were.
That's a LOT of top 4 picks the Wings don't have yet.

Now do the 2008 Wings.

 

[StargateSG1]

Now do the 2008 Wings.

2008 Wings were banking on the pre-cap riches.
Wanna find another Datsyuk or Zetterberg or Lidstrom somewhere now in later rounds?
Maybe we should scout Mongolia, cause all the hockey countries are heavily scouted now.

 

[Ricelund]

2008 Wings were banking on the pre-cap riches.
Wanna find another Datsyuk or Zetterberg or Lidstrom somewhere now in later rounds?
Maybe we should scout Mongolia, cause all the hockey countries are heavily scouted now.

Okay, do the 2019 Blues or 2023 Bruins.

 

[StargateSG1]

Okay, do the 2019 Blues or 2023 Bruins.

Not my job, you do it
I must have missed the 2023 Cup winner in Bruins?
Guess what Marchand said? Key to their continued success is "leaders taking way less than market value to stay successful"

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Now do the 2008 Wings.

Or the 2019 Blues
Or the 2012 and 2014 Kings
Or the 2011 Bruins
Or the 1995, 2000 and 2003 Devils
Or the 1994 rangers

Not many top 3 picks on any of these teams, or at least not many selected by the team they won with.

Top 3 picks don’t guarantee a cup. They increase the odds of getting the best player in a draft but it’s not a guarantee.

Look at the Sabres. They have picked top 12 since 2012. Or the Coyotes in 10 of the last 11 seasons that they missed the playoffs. Or the 2007 to 2015 Oilers. How about the entire existence of the Thrashers Or the Blue Jackets?

It’s easier for a team to flub their rebuild and continue to stay in the tank than it is to put together a winner through tanking.

 

[Bench]

Luck has more to do with how well teams fare in the draft than we like to admit.

It's not just the right pick, but the right year, and if you're not #1 overall you need someone in front of you to mess up, ala Cale Makar falling into your lap instead of Nolan Patrick. Nobody was saying the Flyers made a mistake there. How could you possibly know?

You could tank multiple years and end up with a squad of Kotkaniemi's and Kappo's. Those would have been really appealing picks at the time and we'd all be looking forward to an end of rebuild. Womp womp.

We're going to have to enjoy the ride and hope for some luck. In the meantime, it's important LaLonde and Yzerman keep building a culture and identity for the team. They'll keep shuffling pieces looking for good fits, and grabbing more strikes at the luck machine, so I expect the deadline to have some action for our roster.

 

[StargateSG1]

Luck has more to do with how well teams fare in the draft than we like to admit.

It's not just the right pick, but the right year, and if you're not #1 overall you need someone in front of you to mess up, ala Cale Makar falling into your lap instead of Nolan Patrick. Nobody was saying the Flyers made a mistake there. How could you possibly know?

You could tank multiple years and end up with a squad of Kotkaniemi's and Kappo's. Those would have been really appealing picks at the time and we'd all be looking forward to an end of rebuild. Womp womp.

We're going to have to enjoy the ride and hope for some luck. In the meantime, it's important LaLonde and Yzerman keep building a culture and identity for the team. They'll keep shuffling pieces looking for good fits, and grabbing more strikes at the luck machine, so I expect the deadline to have some action for our roster.

All fair points, however, depends on the team in the position and the GM making the calls.
Sieder was considered "off the board" pick" at the time.
Luck is in the later rounds, you have to nail your 1st round picks, which SY so far did,