Speculation: Wings spare parts at the deadline (Actually, the tank thread)

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

He had to replace Staal and Noodles for sure, he didn't really have to go Perron and Kubalik and Copp, maybe 1, not 3.
And they are "competing" with Chicago and Arizona for Bedard.
You always have injuries, just look at most teams in the league, they were missing significant players for long stretches.

The Wings are 16 points ahead of Columbus and Chicago and have 3 games in hand on the Blue Jackets. They are not close to being in the running for Bedard. There's a lot of games left to play but Arizona and Anaheim look like they're competing for 3rd and 4th worst.

And of course teams always have injuries, but that doesn't mean you expect to lose Bertuzzi for half a season because he breaks both hands. And have Vrana going into PAP. On a team as light on talent as the Red Wings those injuries are going to have a greater impact.

 

[StargateSG1]

The Wings are 16 points ahead of Columbus and Chicago and have 3 games in hand on the Blue Jackets. They are not close to being in the running for Bedard. There's a lot of games left to play but Arizona and Anaheim look like they're competing for 3rd and 4th worst.

And of course teams always have injuries, but that doesn't mean you expect to lose Bertuzzi for half a season because he breaks both hands. And have Vrana going into PAP. On a team as light on talent as the Red Wings those injuries are going to have a greater impact.

You realize Wings are 14th in the East right now, with an easy schedule, right?
What I m saying is that without Kubalik (who was hot for a while) or Copp or Perron (who was hot for a while)
they are not 16 points ahead of the Jackets, who were devastated by injuries this season?
Werenski?

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

You realize Wings are 14th in the East right now, with an easy schedule, right?
What I m saying is that without Kubalik (who was hot for a while) or Copp or Perron (who was hot for a while)
they are not 16 points ahead of the Jackets, who were devastated by injuries this season?
Werenski?

Honestly I'm not even sure what we're arguing about at this point. I've sort of lost the trail.

The season has been disappointing but there has been progress. If Yzerman had a crystal ball sure he probably would've done things differently. And even without those guys you mention, they're still not bad enough to out-tank the cellar dwellers.

 

[StargateSG1]

Honestly I'm not even sure what we're arguing about at this point. I've sort of lost the trail.

The season has been disappointing but there has been progress. If Yzerman had a crystal ball sure he probably would've done things differently. And even without those guys you mention, they're still not bad enough to out-tank the cellar dwellers.

You don't need to have a crystal ball to know that you don't want to go UFA shopping when generational talent is on the line in the draft. Just common sense.

 

[Oddbob]

You don't need to have a crystal ball to know that you don't want to go UFA shopping when generational talent is on the line in the draft. Just common sense.

Working so far for Edmonton having 2 franchise centers isn't it! No guarantee you don't get a Lafreniere level player at 1-whatever, and there is more than one way to get good. As is, we are still getting a top 10 pick in this draft which is supposed to be deep.

 

[Gniwder]

I think Yzerman would sooner play to be the best if it meant bodychecking his own mother, rather than sell out and just collect his salary.

Here are some quotes from his recent Top 100 Players blurb:

Steve Yzerman: 100 Greatest NHL Players | NHL.com

'Ultimate captain' helped lead Red Wings to three Stanley Cup titles

www.nhl.com

The Stanley Cup has always been Yzerman's No. 1 priority. He played 22 seasons but didn't win the championship until his 14th season. "It's the only award that matters," he said. "By far the most rewarding thing is going through four rounds of the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup."



Former Detroit defenseman Chris Chelios, who was captain of the Chicago Blackhawks from 1995-99, described Yzerman as "the ultimate captain."

"No one competes more than him," Chelios said. "He's been like that ever since I've known him."

Yzerman admits he can't turn it off when he goes home.

Card games. Monopoly. Scrabble. It doesn't matter. In Yzerman's mind, only one person can be No. 1.

"I have to win at everything," he said. "It's cost me some friends."



"When I think of Steve, I think of competitiveness and intensity," said Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill, Yzerman's teammate during his early Detroit days and later his boss as Detroit's assistant GM. "The will to win. He was going to win no matter what."



"He just does the right thing time in and time out, even when the right thing is very hard to do," said Toronto Maple Leafs coach Mike Babcock, Yzerman's last NHL coach. "Most of us go for the path of least resistance. That's not Steve Yzerman."



That's not a guy who's ever willing to let off the gas, let alone mail it in.

Wait, so Stevie is a piece of crap?

(Skip to 1:40)

 

[Pavels Dog]

You don't need to have a crystal ball to know that you don't want to go UFA shopping when generational talent is on the line in the draft. Just common sense.

After losing 6 lotteries in a row, it takes a special kind of fool to believe the 7th time's the charm.

 

[jaster]

You don't need to have a crystal ball to know that you don't want to go UFA shopping when generational talent is on the line in the draft. Just common sense.

So Steve Yzerman lacks... *checks notes*... common sense.

Got it.

If you aren't good at math, and ignore the risks of intentionally tanking a team several years into a rebuild with young talent on the roster, I can see how it would appear that Yzerman doesn't have any common sense, sure.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

You don't need to have a crystal ball to know that you don't want to go UFA shopping when generational talent is on the line in the draft. Just common sense.

This claim has been debunked repeatedly in these threads. It's a strategy for sure but the myth that it's the obvious highest percentage move to build a contending team is false.

The main irony being people supporting this path seem to be upset that the rebuild is taking so long when this method would add years to the rebuild even if the Wings miraculously landed Bedard.

 

[Frk It]

You don't need to have a crystal ball to know that you don't want to go UFA shopping when generational talent is on the line in the draft. Just common sense.

We should do what Buffalo did in the McDavid draft, worked out great for them.

8 years later and they have made the playoffs... checks notes.... 0 times. Was obviously worth it too since they got McDavid... oh wait.

 

[StargateSG1]

After losing 6 lotteries in a row, it takes a special kind of fool to believe the 7th time's the charm.

Yeah, "fool", got it. And the "alternate way" is working out so much better, right?
What is it? "Draft higher and Hope"?

 

[jaster]

Yeah, "fool", got it. And the "alternate way" is working out so much better, right?
What is it? "Draft higher and Hope"?

So because there's no immediate solution, let's instead go with the solution that takes longest? Kind of an odd tack for the most impatient fans to choose.

 

[drw02]

After losing 6 lotteries in a row, it takes a special kind of fool to believe the 7th time's the charm.

Don't like this "we're cursed, whoa is me" kind of thinking. Past results have no bearing on future results. Just bc the Wings have had bad luck the past several years doesn't mean they won't have good luck next time. Just as teams like New Jersey or Edmonton shouldn't assume they're shoe ins to win any future drawing bc they had good luck in the past.

It was an odd decision from this front office to shoot for the mushy middle this year and seemingly try to take themselves out of the Bedard sweepstakes entirely

 

[jaster]

Don't like this "we're cursed, whoa is me" kind of thinking. Past results have no bearing on future results. Just bc the Wings have had bad luck the past several years doesn't mean they won't have good luck next time. Just as teams like New Jersey or Edmonton shouldn't assume they're shoe ins to win any future drawing bc they had good luck in the past.

It was an odd decision from this front office to shoot for the mushy middle this year and seemingly try to take themselves out of the Bedard sweepstakes entirely

That's certainly correct. However, I think the point here is that the odds are low no matter what, and most fans have an inflated sense of hope they'll hit those odds. So after 6 rounds of those odds teaching you a lesson, you'd hope by round 7 that expectations would fall in line with the reality. But nah. There are still fans who want to adopt the rebuilding version of "poke and hope."

 

[StargateSG1]

That's certainly correct. However, I think the point here is that the odds are low no matter what, and most fans have an inflated sense of hope they'll hi those odds. So after 6 rounds of those odds teaching you a lesson, you'd hope by round 7 that expectations would fall in line with the reality. But nah. There are still fans who want to adopt the rebuilding version of "poke and hope."

Not 6, just 1 time when they got screwed out of the lottery win with the best odds.
Dropping a few spots in other years doesn't exactly count.

 

[Frk It]

Don't like this "we're cursed, whoa is me" kind of thinking. Past results have no bearing on future results. Just bc the Wings have had bad luck the past several years doesn't mean they won't have good luck next time. Just as teams like New Jersey or Edmonton shouldn't assume they're shoe ins to win any future drawing bc they had good luck in the past.

It was an odd decision from this front office to shoot for the mushy middle this year and seemingly try to take themselves out of the Bedard sweepstakes entirely

Most teams are going to see this and say it's not worthwhile to get out of their way to be last.

The fact that you are wishing we are more like Chicago and Columbus should tell you something.

We can also literally look at the last time a team that went out of their way to be last in a draft with a generational player in it (2015) to see how that played out. There have been several articles that came out that talk about the negative effects of tanking from that season on the locker room/culture from that time frame.

 

[jaster]

Not 6, just 1 time when they got screwed out of the lottery win with the best odds.
Dropping a few spots in other years doesn't exactly count.

The poster I was replying to mentioned the past several years, and was replying to a comment about the past 6, so that's why I was referring to that.

But if we are talking about only the time where we had the best odds.... even if Yzerman hadn't signed the UFAs he signed, and the Wings were tanking this season, what are the odds that we'd beat out the likes of Chicago and Columbus to then get the best odds for the lottery? Because whatever odds you assign us, multiply that by the 25.5% chance you get as the last place team to calculate our odds going into the season (you'd have to then do the same with our odds of finishing at each position, multiply each by the lottery odds, and then sum those numbers).

Personally, without the likes of Perron, Kubalik, Husso (which creates a butterfly effect that likely wipes out Bert's injuries btw), I'd still give us, at best, something like a 20% chance to finish last (with similar odds for other bottom positions in the lottery). Doing some quick back-of-the-napkin math here, going into the season, in an intentional tank for Bedard, we'd have about a 10% chance at landing him. The team would be horrid, the franchise would be losing fans, Larkin and others would sour on the organization, a losing culture would set in even deeper, the team would collectively have less talent and asset capital for the future.... all for a 10% chance at Bedard.

That's.... foolhardy. Which is what the NHL wanted when they designed this system. To curb tanking. Have fewer teams tank. And even then, the odds of winning are not good for any of the bottom teams individually.

Meanwhile, with the team kind of settled in to what they are at this point, and a more difficult schedule ahead, finishing about 9th last and having a 5% chance at Bedard seems pretty likely. We all have our preferences, but I don't like the overall risk involved in going from 5% to 10% odds.

 

[drw02]

That's certainly correct. However, I think the point here is that the odds are low no matter what, and most fans have an inflated sense of hope they'll hi those odds. So after 6 rounds of those odds teaching you a lesson, you'd hope by round 7 that expectations would fall in line with the reality. But nah. There are still fans who want to adopt the rebuilding version of "poke and hope."

Seems most people just assume whoever has the best odds will win which is usually not the case. Odds are great at representing what you should see over multiple iterations but in one single iteration any random event is possible, odds can really almost be thrown out the window

They can't run from what they are, masking holes with overpaid UFA's just for the appearance of being slightly more competitive isn't helping them reach their goal of building a perennial contender. Feels more like they're trying to rush the rebuild they said they wouldn't.

Would you say the rebuild is over now? Is playoffs the goal next year and beyond? Should we expect more aggressiveness in free agency this summer?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

The Wings are 16 points ahead of Columbus and Chicago and have 3 games in hand on the Blue Jackets. They are not close to being in the running for Bedard. There's a lot of games left to play but Arizona and Anaheim look like they're competing for 3rd and 4th worst.

And of course teams always have injuries, but that doesn't mean you expect to lose Bertuzzi for half a season because he breaks both hands. And have Vrana going into PAP. On a team as light on talent as the Red Wings those injuries are going to have a greater impact.

As an aside, The bottom 5 teams of Chicago, Arizona, Columbus, San Jose and Anaheim are likely to get the strongest top 5 picks in an NHL draft since probably 1990 and that makes me very sad.

How does that help the league grow and become bigger in the public eye?

 

[drw02]

View attachment 645368
Most teams are going to see this and say it's not worthwhile to get out of their way to be last.

The fact that you are wishing we are more like Chicago and Columbus should tell you something.

We can also literally look at the last time a team that went out of their way to be last in a draft with a generational player in it (2015) to see how that played out. There have been several articles that came out that talk about the negative effects of tanking from that season on the locker room/culture from that time frame.

Is there really that much difference between Chicago/Columbus/Arizona and Detroit? Is having ~5 more ROW's than them something to be proud of?

I just want them to get some elite talent and unfortunately drafting high still remains the best way of doing that. I don't subscribe to the tanking culture theory. I think if you put a bunch of good/great players together with a smart coaching staff they'll get it figured out regardless of what the teams history is.

 

[Frk It]

Is there really that much difference between Chicago/Columbus/Arizona and Detroit? Is having ~5 more ROW's than them something to be pround of?

Yeah, Chicago traded away good young players like DeBrincat and Dach to get to where they are... do you want Detroit to do that?

That's the kind of shit you have to compete with in jockeying to be the worst. As opposed to trying to get incrementally better and letting the chips falls where they may.

 

[norrisnick]

As an aside, The bottom 5 teams of Chicago, Arizona, Columbus, San Jose and Anaheim are likely to get the strongest top 5 picks in an NHL draft since probably 1990 and that makes me very sad.

How does that help the league grow and become bigger in the public eye?

By drawing attention to those markets?

What good does it do to stick them in hockey hotbeds? They're hotbeds, they don't need superkids.

 

[StargateSG1]

The poster I was replying to mentioned the past several years, and was replying to a comment about the past 6, so that's why I was referring to that.

But if we are talking about only the time where we had the best odds.... even if Yzerman hadn't signed the UFAs he signed, and the Wings were tanking this season, what are the odds that we'd beat out the likes of Chicago and Columbus to then get the best odds for the lottery? Because whatever odds you assign us, multiply that by the 25.5% chance you get as the last place team to calculate our odds going into the season (you'd have to then do the same with our odds of finishing at each position, multiply each by the lottery odds, and then sum those numbers).

Personally, without the likes of Perron, Kubalik, Husso (which creates a butterfly effect that likely wipes out Bert's injuries btw), I'd still give us, at best, something like a 20% chance to finish last (with similar odds for other bottom positions in the lottery). Doing some quick back-of-the-napkin math here, going into the season, in an intentional tank for Bedard, we'd have about a 10% chance at landing him. The team would be horrid, the franchise would be losing fans, Larkin and others would sour on the organization, a losing culture would set in even deeper, the team would collectively have less talent and asset capital for the future.... all for a 10% chance at Bedard.

That's.... foolhardy. Which is what the NHL wanted when they designed this system. To curb tanking. Have fewer teams tank. And even then, the odds of winning are not good for any of the bottom teams individually.

Meanwhile, with the team kind of settled in to what they are at this point, and a more difficult schedule ahead, finishing about 9th last and having a 5% chance at Bedard seems pretty likely. We all have our preferences, but I don't like the overall risk involved in going from 5% to 10% odds.

Remember the 2000s Maple Leafs?
Never good enough to win or bad enough for high picks, just throwing money at free agents?
And they had a superstar Sundin on the roster.
They tried it for years, until they decided it's time to properly rebuild.

We are running into a distinct possibility to be stuck in the same conundrum.
You can try getting incrementally better, hoping to snatch a "Kucherov" or "Point" in later rounds for sure, but it might take years, and it is still dependent on "luck", just like the draft lottery.

 

[drw02]

Yeah, Chicago traded away good young players like DeBrincat and Dach to get to where they are... do you want Detroit to do that?

That's the kind of shit you have to compete with in jockeying to be the worst. As opposed to trying to get incrementally better and letting the chips falls where they may.

They only traded Dach because they had soured on him but I wouldn't have had any problem with trading guys like Bert, Vrana, Zadina, Ras last summer for worthwhile futures. It's not a competition to see who can field the worst roster, more like not being afraid to just let the chips fall where they may

 

[ShelbyZ]

I keep seeing this argument for not trading Bertuzzi built around hoping he'll come back on a 1 or 2 year "show me" contract because no other team is going to want to sign him for more, but we all know that isn't reality...

Who wants to play HF Boards Jeopardy and take "Bad Signings" for 1 Like?

"An NHL forward who in 2013 was in high demand at the trade deadline and free agency, and eventually signed for 5 years and $24.5M despite struggling with injuries and scoring only 1 goal and 3 assists in 17 games"