I think the odds Yzerman doesn't re-sign Larkin is very low.
It will probably be a boring trade deadline where he shops Sundqvist, Erne and Suter for whatever they'll bring back. Maybe Maatta is shopped too, but then he'd just turn around and try to bring in a similar defenseman in the off season, so maybe he'll just re-sign him for a year or two. I'd guess Bertuzzi is re-signed on a short term deal, but that could be the one player where there is a big surprise trade at the deadline a la Mantha.
From a draft lottery standpoint, they'll probably finish 10th or 11th with a low of 8th being a realistic outcome. If they do actually finish 8th, they'd have a 6% chance at Bedard and a 6.4% chance at finishing second and having their choice of Fantilli, Carlsson or Michkov. It's unlikely, but still possible. If the Wings don't get really lucky in the lottery, it just seems like they could float in mediocrity for awhile; whereas if they get lucky then the whole direction of the franchise changes overnight.
I think my biggest disappointment with Yzerman so far is he built out a real hockey staff in Tampa Bay. However, in Detroit, it is just he and his old buddies running the whole team. For example, would Draper be in his position if he didn't play for the Wings? The front office looks very similar to what it would have if Holland was running things, and that is just not what I expected. Horcoff, Campbell, Fischer, Cleary, Draper, Maltby and many of the scouting staff are just holdovers from the Holland era and with several getting major promotions. After that, Yzerman added Kronwall and Lidstrom to his staff and that's been about it. The Copp and Chiarot signings, in particular, brought back memories of what Holland would have done in that exact same situation, so I'm hoping Yzerman changes course at this deadline and in the coming off season and makes some serious changes to how the organization is running. It is at a bit of a crossroads at this point. I think it makes sense to keep European amateur scouting as is, and that is one thing the organization still does well. But, it has badly needed an overhaul in North American scouting, pro scouting and player development for awhile to make it a more modern organization and I'm still holding out hope that will happen one day. A shakeup needs to happen and hopefully there is some serious luck, as well.