Speculation: Wings spare parts at the deadline (Actually, the tank thread)

[Debrincat93]

In the last 10 seasons the Sabres have had ten Top 10 picks in the draft, including:

2021 1st overall Owen Power
2018 1st overall Rasmus Dahlin
2015 2nd overall Jack Eichel
2014 2nd overall Sam Reinhart

So is your plan for the Wings to be at or near the absolute bottom of the standings for a decade so they can accumulate all these picks and hopefully get some generational talent? Because you seem pretty frustrated after only a few years of rebuilding.

A few years? i guess we have different views on that word, its been way more than a few years.

They need to start hitting on all these picks. They had multiple second, thirds some years. Time to start hitting on them. Not blaming Yzerman, he inherited a shithole from Holland. But, his drafts need to start taking off, too.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

A few years? i guess we have different views on that word, its been way more than a few years.

They need to start hitting on all these picks. They had multiple second, thirds some years. Time to start hitting on them. Not blaming Yzerman, he inherited a shithole from Holland. But, his drafts need to start taking off, too.

That's why I said a few years. Yzerman was named GM 4 years ago, so that's when the rebuild started in earnest and a lot of the early work was undoing the mess Holland left behind. Very little of what Holland did could be considered rebuilding.

It's become my favorite terrifying example of how bad things were but had Yzerman not bought him out, Abdelkader would still be on the team this season as the 5th highest paid forward. This is a player who could not get an NHL job since 2020, and really wasn't even NHL caliber then.

 

[Frk It]

A few years? i guess we have different views on that word, its been way more than a few years.

They need to start hitting on all these picks.

I think we have done a great job with our top pick 4 years in a row.

 

[Claypool]

Yeah but wasn’t your original point that you MUST tank to get a high pick to ever be a contender ?

You are making a direct case for the anti tank crowd with your Boston example.

Bergeron - 2nd rounder
Chara - Big name UFA
Marchand - 3rd rounder
Pasternak - late 1st (25 OA)
Rask - Kind of a whatever trade at the time.

Dallas Stars are starting to set themselves up for Long term success. By hitting big on guys like;

Robertson - 2nd round
Hintz - 2nd round
Oettinger - late 1st (26 OA)
Johnston - Mid 1st (23 OA *Wings pick)

And building a great young D core.
They got Heiskinen high, but didn’t tank for years by any means. Nill is putting together a great young core on the fly. No generational phenom needed. No tanking needed.

No, you misunderstand. My argument is/was this team needs superstars. A couple of them. The best way to get superstars is drafting high. There are other ways to get superstars, true, such as late-round picks or free agency, but those aren't the best odds. Those are at best long shots.

The plan that gives you the best odds of getting superstars is drafting high. Look at the majority of teams that won the Stanley Cup in the cap area. Nearly all have 1-2 superstars that are high draft picks (in many cases #1 overall).

 

[jkutswings]

The plan that gives you the best odds of getting superstars is drafting high. Look at the majority of teams that won the Stanley Cup in the cap area. Nearly all have 1-2 superstars that are high draft picks (in many cases #1 overall).

But you're completely ignoring any RISK associated with that strategy (even if "best odds" means a low chance instead of a very low chance).

Risks with scorched earth tanking:
* Financial pressure from ownership
* Possible NHL intervention (if it's blatant)
* Existing players faltering in development
* Existing players wanting out
* Talented prospects faltering for lack of support
* Possible trades or signings falling through (even once you start to win, players may not want to come here)

Lots can go wrong due to being awful, even if you eventually land a great prospect.

Additionally, teams that won Cups drafting 1 or 2 overall did so prior to changing the lottery. Since they screwed with the system, I see a lot of bottom feeders staying as bad to mediocre teams.

 

[Claypool]

But you're completely ignoring any RISK associated with that strategy (even if "best odds" means a low chance instead of a very low chance).

Risks with scorched earth tanking:
* Financial pressure from ownership
* Possible NHL intervention (if it's blatant)
* Existing players faltering in development
* Existing players wanting out
* Talented prospects faltering for lack of support
* Possible trades or signings falling through (even once you start to win, players may not want to come here)

Lots can go wrong due to being awful, even if you eventually land a great prospect.

Additionally, teams that won Cups drafting 1 or 2 overall did so prior to changing the lottery. Since they screwed with the system, I see a lot of bottom feeders staying as bad to mediocre teams.

I understand there's a risk with the plan. All plans have risk. What is the best plan to win long term? The answer is pretty clear. You need superstars to win.

You need to give me a plan to get superstars that has better, more consistent odds than drafting high.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

While I don't think most average fans are intelligent or have the capability to think long term, I do think they understand that being the worst team in the league is more interesting than being the 20th ranked team in the league. It gives you hope which keeps the fan base around. Apathy is the real enemy. Once folks stop caring one way or another, then the organization is screwed. Unless you are the Detroit Lions. MOD

 

[jkutswings]

I understand there's a risk with the plan. All plans have risk. What is the best plan to win long term? The answer is pretty clear. You need superstars to win.

You need to give me a plan to get superstars that has better, more consistent odds than drafting high.

What I'm saying is, I'd rather have "5 percent" odds of landing a couple superstars throughout my entire draft class over a handful of years, while showing my existing players and fans that I also care about the current product on the ice, rather than have "10 percent" odds of landing those two, while alienating everybody else during the required waiting period of being hot garbage.

If I didn't like Seider and Raymond and Edvinsson and Kaspar and Soderblom and Rasmussen, I'd probably have a different take. But there's already several promising young players and prospects, and I'm confident there will continue to be more (without going scorched earth).

 

[norrisnick]

While I don't think most average fans are intelligent or have the capability to think long term, I do think they understand that being the worst team in the league is more interesting than being the 20th ranked team in the league. It gives you hope which keeps the fan base around. Apathy is the real enemy. Once folks stop caring one way or another, then the organization is screwed. Unless you are the Detroit Lions. MOD

Wings promotional campaign should just be "don't bother watching for a few years, we promise to be good in 2028!"

 

[Claypool]

What I'm saying is, I'd rather have "5 percent" odds of landing a couple superstars throughout my entire draft class over a handful of years, while showing my existing players and fans that I also care about the current product on the ice, rather than have "10 percent" odds of landing those two, while alienating everybody else during the required waiting period of being hot garbage.

If I didn't like Seider and Raymond and Edvinsson and Kaspar and Soderblom and Rasmussen, I'd probably have a different take. But there's already several promising young players and prospects, and I'm confident there will continue to be more (without going scorched earth).

I'm not worried about the feelings of the players. Look at the bigger picture. The Red Wings aren't getting a player drafting 10th that will make the team good enough to beat Toronto, Boston, Tampa, for a playoff spot anytime soon. That means, for at least the next three years, Detroit will not be making the playoffs at all no matter what they do.

Why not try and increase your odds at getting a superstar in the meantime?

When does Detroit's window to compete open in your mind?

 

[Roy S]

I'm not sure if it would have been tanking, but the Wings best course this offseason was probably to shop Bertuzzi and Vrana because they shouldn't have been signing them to long-term deals anyway and to not sign Chiarot and Copp. That just would have been good asset management and the Wings would be much better off now if they did a quick re-set on the rebuild last offseason.

 

[WingedWheel1987]

Wings promotional campaign should just be "don't bother watching for a few years, we promise to be good in 2028!"

I can't even imagine what the Wings current TV ratings are. They must be absolutely abysmal. I tried doing some research but could only a dig up an Mlive article from 2017 that showed a 28% drop in viewership ratings. I still "watch" the team, but let's just say I'm doing a lot of multitasking while watching.

You are actually right though. There really is no real reason to watch the Wings for the foreseeable future. The likelihood of them building a quality roster over the next 2-3 years is slim to none. Assuming they continue to draft in the 8-10 range.

 

[DoMakc]

The pro-tank people should actually consult specialists because they seem to have gambling problem. Concept of getting lucky is easy to understand and appealing for the most people, I mean, just look how much gambling ads they actually play during the games.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm not worried about the feelings of the players. Look at the bigger picture. The Red Wings aren't getting a player drafting 10th that will make the team good enough to beat Toronto, Boston, Tampa, for a playoff spot anytime soon. That means, for at least the next three years, Detroit will not be making the playoffs at all no matter what they do.

Why not try and increase your odds at getting a superstar in the meantime?

When does Detroit's window to compete open in your mind?

Clearly. And with that attitude, you will never build a winner no matter how shiny the draft positions are.

 

[Claypool]

I can't even imagine what the Wings current TV ratings are. They must be absolutely abysmal. I tried doing some research but could only a dig up an Mlive article from 2017 that showed a 28% drop in viewership ratings. I still "watch" the team, but let's just say I'm doing a lot of multitasking while watching.

You are actually right though. There really is no real reason to watch the Wings for the foreseeable future. The likelihood of them building a quality roster over the next 2-3 years is slim to none. Assuming they continue to draft in the 8-10 range.

I've noticed the Red Wings are now doing "Star Wars Night" which is what minor league hockey teams do to get people in the door. Pretty soon they're going to have to start giving away cars again.

Clearly. And with that attitude, you will never build a winner no matter how shiny the draft positions are.

When does Detroit's window to win a Stanley Cup open?

 

[norrisnick]

When does Detroit's window to win a Stanley Cup open?

A few years after we pull HOF talent out of the 3rd, 4th, and 11th round of a single draft again.

 

[jkutswings]

I'm not worried about the feelings of the players.

So when Larkin walks for nothing, and Seider or Raymond lean in the same direction, that doesn't bother you, at least in terms of collecting/maintaining assets?

Look at the bigger picture. The Red Wings aren't getting a player drafting 10th that will make the team good enough to beat Toronto, Boston, Tampa, for a playoff spot anytime soon. That means, for at least the next three years, Detroit will not be making the playoffs at all no matter what they do.

1) They don't need to pass TOR/BOS/TAM to make the playoffs. NHL Regular Season Standings shows Washington and Pittsburgh as the current wild card teams, and both their windows are closing.

2) Regardless of who they have to hurdle, I disagree that they can't find that player at 10 overall. They already found several good young players without a single top 3 pick, and I think they'll continue to outdraft many of the teams reaching the podium before them.

When does Detroit's window to compete open in your mind?

Define compete. I expect them to make the necessary moves to make the playoffs next season. I expect them to "contend" (be capable of making at least the conference finals) starting in 2025-26.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

While I don't think most average fans are intelligent or have the capability to think long term, I do think they understand that being the worst team in the league is more interesting than being the 20th ranked team in the league. It gives you hope which keeps the fan base around. Apathy is the real enemy. Once folks stop caring one way or another, then the organization is screwed. Unless you are the Detroit Lions. MOD

This is very dumb. This is so damn dumb

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

Do we need to have the exact same conversation on every thread? Geez.

 

[jaster]

This is very dumb. This is so damn dumb

I can't stop laughing at it. I mean, there's data on this stuff. It's clear. Fans are absolutely not more hopeful or interested when their team is the worst in the league compared to when it's in the middle. From gate receipts to merch sales to polling, fans in general very much do not like their team being in last place lol.

 

[norrisnick]

Do we need to have the exact same conversation on every thread? Geez.

Welcome to HFBoards.

 

[StargateSG1]

I can't stop laughing at it. I mean, there's data on this stuff. It's clear. Fans are absolutely not more hopeful or interested when their team is the worst in the league compared to when it's in the middle. From gate receipts to merch sales to polling, fans in general very much do not like their team being in last place lol.

Pizza Pizza place is have empty again this season, so it's not like fans are flocking to see them play

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Piatrengelo also.
And all aforementioned teams were "one and done" as far as Cups go.
So no prolonged success, just 1 season when the stars aligned.

This is the cap era. Saying that these teams didn’t have prolonged success is a flat out lie. Look at their W/L records from 2008 to today. Each had a very strong run over this span while only only missing the postseason a handful of times combined.

The ultimate goal is a championship but you can still be a good to great team without being a dynasty.

 

[cvaicunas]

I'm not worried about the feelings of the players. Look at the bigger picture. The Red Wings aren't getting a player drafting 10th that will make the team good enough to beat Toronto, Boston, Tampa, for a playoff spot anytime soon. That means, for at least the next three years, Detroit will not be making the playoffs at all no matter what they do.

Why not try and increase your odds at getting a superstar in the meantime?

When does Detroit's window to compete open in your mind?

No one could possibly know this. Is there a lower statistical chance at this draft position than at 1, sure, but this is a wild take.

 

[StargateSG1]

This is the cap era. Saying that these teams didn’t have prolonged success is a flat out lie. Look at their W/L records from 2008 to today. Each had a very strong run over this span while only only missing the postseason a handful of times combined.

The ultimate goal is a championship but you can still be a good to great team without being a dynasty.

No, it's not a lie.
Forget what Kenny ever told you, as in "get in the playoffs and anything can happen".
That's a lie!