Speculation: Wings spare parts at the deadline (Actually, the tank thread)

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

How has it been dismantled? What strategy gives the Wings a better chance of building a cup contending roster? You haven't given me a single alternative. You just keep saying tanking isn't the best option, but you haven't proposed a single alternative that has a higher chance of being successful.

Are you serious? This topic has been beat to death on nearly every thread in this forum.

When the Wings were legitimately worst in the league they got screwed in the draft and there wasn't generational talent to be had. It's unrealistic to expect an NHL franchise to keep icing an unwatchable team season after season in hopes that they win the 1st overall pick and that there's a superstar player available.

 

[Claypool]

Every winner has hit huge on mid to last 1sts or lower round picks, key trades, or free agent signings.

Tanking can very quickly spiral into a toxic losing atmosphere that is very very hard to climb out of. There is no guarantee that Edmonton or Buffalo win anything and they've been mired in that bullshit for over 10 years now.

The closest example there is for a team tanking to success is Pittsburgh's string of 1-2-1-2 almost 20 years ago. But those first two picks aren't even really a tank. More of a case of a team that was going bankrupt and likely folds if they don't get gifted Sid coming out of the lockout. And even they needed a 3rd to hit huge with Letang.

Edmonton and Buffalo are set up for long-term success far better than Detroit is. Both teams have legitimate, young superstars. Whatever happened with those teams over the last decade is moot, and most if not all of the players on those toxic rosters are elsewhere now.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Edmonton and Buffalo are set up for long-term success far better than Detroit is. Both teams have legitimate, young superstars. Whatever happened with those teams over the last decade is moot, and most if not all of the players on those toxic rosters are elsewhere now.

It's pretty funny to bring up Buffalo as the model you want to follow when the Wings have been out of the playoffs half as long as the Sabres.

Imagine what you'd be posting here in year 12 of missing the playoffs.

 

[Gniwder]

It's pretty funny to bring up Buffalo as the model you want to follow when the Wings have been out of the playoffs half as long as the Sabres.

Imagine what you'd be posting here in year 12 of missing the playoffs.

We'll see in 6 years.

 

[norrisnick]

Edmonton and Buffalo are set up for long-term success far better than Detroit is. Both teams have legitimate, young superstars. Whatever happened with those teams over the last decade is moot, and most if not all of the players on those toxic rosters are elsewhere now.

They might be. If they don't actually win, what was the point?

And it's not wholly toxic players. It's toxic behaviors that sometimes persist. Take the end of the 2nd period. Why in the f*** was McDavid out there for 3 and a half minutes to close out the period? Because the winning behaviors of getting the f*** off the ice isn't instilled into him because for years now it's just been do whatever the f*** you want because the team isn't good anyway.

 

[Claypool]

It's pretty funny to bring up Buffalo as the model you want to follow when the Wings have been out of the playoffs half as long as the Sabres.

Imagine what you'd be posting here in year 12 of missing the playoffs.

Yes, Buffalo has had to rebuild the rebuild more than fans would like. Looks like it's paying off now though. And they also successfully course corrected after the Eichel debacle. There's reason to be optimistic about their roster. They have four players with 50 points or more currently. Detroit doesn't have any.

They might be. If they don't actually win, what was the point?

And it's not wholly toxic players. It's toxic behaviors that sometimes persist. Take the end of the 2nd period. Why in the f*** was McDavid out there for 3 and a half minutes to close out the period? Because the winning behaviors of getting the f*** off the ice isn't instilled into him because for years now it's just been do whatever the f*** you want because the team isn't good anyway.

Nothing is guaranteed. The point is to have a 10-year or more run of being a Cup contender every season.

Edmonton won tonight. Edmonton also went to the conference finals last year. The last time Detroit did that was in 2009 when McDavid was 12 years old.

 

[lilidk]

We cut to the bone, no more parts, we keep putting our players on waivers , but nobody seems to be care

 

[Coach Reggie Dunlop]

Historically, about 34% of 2nd round picks play more than 99 games in the NHL. The Wings have had 9 2nd round picks under Yzerman, so you'd like to see them hit on at least 3 of them. I think the best odds at the moment would be Johansson, Wallinder (very good odds) and Buchelnikov. I think the only real reaches based on consensus rankings at the time were Tuomisto and James. Buchelnikov was off the radar but that was a lot different circumstance than the others.

I hate the James pick. Like I actually despise that pick. There was a lot and I mean a lot of talent and holes we could have filled on the board with that pick and we took an average winger who’s highest trait is grit. I love the buch pick because it’s boom or bust, but the James pick…I was mad right after I saw that pick in

 

[Debrincat93]

It's pretty funny to bring up Buffalo as the model you want to follow when the Wings have been out of the playoffs half as long as the Sabres.

Imagine what you'd be posting here in year 12 of missing the playoffs.

irrelevant comment. You can tell yourself anything you want to sleep at night, but their youngsters are steeping up, and only 2-3 of ours are right now. Not a good sign.

 

[Pavels Dog]

My plan is to keep tanking, acquiring picks, and draft as high as possible for several years in a row.

The only difference between your plan and Yzerman's is probably the exact definition of the word 'tanking'.

irrelevant comment. You can tell yourself anything you want to sleep at night, but their youngsters are steeping up, and only 2-3 of ours are right now. Not a good sign.

It's almost like a 15 year rebuild and drafting multiple #1 or #2OAs eventually pays off.

 

[Frk It]

Genuinely shocked this thread went this route.

 

[jkutswings]

That isn't the argument. What team building strategy other than tanking gives you the best chance of building a cup contending roster?

Being a better front office than the competition.

Selling where it makes sense, to add draft picks. Drafting better than other teams, and not just in the first round. Weaponizing cap space and making shrewd trades/signings where it makes sense.

Using all your options, regardless of whether your first pick is #1 or #11, to continue to build long term.

I believe in this front office, including the scouting staff. I like who I think Seider and Raymond and Berggren and Edvinsson and Soderblom and Rasmussen and Kasper are shaping up to be. And I trust that they'll continue to find good players.

So build. Everywhere. And don't just pin it all on your first pick and lottery luck. That's the better option to build a Cup contender.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Genuinely shocked this thread went this route.

I think posters should be required to identify themselves as pro-tank at the beginning of each season. There are a couple angry contrarians who have been consistent, but there is also a lot of revisionist jabber.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

Yes, Buffalo has had to rebuild the rebuild more than fans would like. Looks like it's paying off now though. And they also successfully course corrected after the Eichel debacle. There's reason to be optimistic about their roster. They have four players with 50 points or more currently. Detroit doesn't have any.


Nothing is guaranteed. The point is to have a 10-year or more run of being a Cup contender every season.

Edmonton won tonight. Edmonton also went to the conference finals last year. The last time Detroit did that was in 2009 when McDavid was 12 years old.

Right. So you're complaining about where the Wings are after 5 years and lauding where the Sabres are after 12.

Using your model it seems like the Wings have a lot more time to get good.

The only difference between your plan and Yzerman's is probably the exact definition of the word 'tanking'.

It's almost like a 15 year rebuild and drafting multiple #1 or #2OAs eventually pays off.

Yup. Funny how they overlook the decade plus of sucking when it comes to the Sabres rebuild and now they're a shining example.

 

[RedWingzz]

Sorry guys I just don’t see a path forward for this rebuild and core of a team unless we have a superstar player. How are we gonna get that? No clue, but being a middling team in the 10-16 lane isn’t how you do it. Are we poised to make a big jump next year? I don’t see it. And I don’t think we have anyone in the pipeline to change things. I think our potential right now with our core is 6/7/8th seed team. Teams like Buffalo and NJ are just gonna have way more high end talent than us. How are we gonna change that? The only way I see is tanking, because we aren’t getting that talent in later rounds like old detroit teams.

This is the sad, but you are unfortunately correct.

I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel either. We have some solid pieces that should elevate the team to the playoffs, but is the end goal to make the playoffs and see what happens, or is the end goal the Cup? The way we are trending, with the pieces we have, I see us as a playoff team in 2 years or so, but not a Cup competing team. The sad and depressing reality is that we should rebuild from the rebuild.

We are stuck in mediocrity, and without lottery luck, I don't see this team on the path to being a contender. Holland really hurt the team with his first round picks from 15-18 (and yes, Ras and Joey V are serviceable NHLers). Combine Holland's drafting with no lottery luck, and we are what we are.

Obviously if Kasper/Edvinsson/Wallinder or other prospects come in and absolutely tear it up, then maybe we could trend towards a Cup contender, but we would need all of our prospects to hit their maximum potential, which just isn't realistic.

 

[Holden Caufield]

Boston has been to three finals in a ten year period with Chara and Bergeron. I'd take that every day of the week as a fan. Looks like they still have another run with Bergeron left at the helm.

Yeah but wasn’t your original point that you MUST tank to get a high pick to ever be a contender ?

You are making a direct case for the anti tank crowd with your Boston example.

Bergeron - 2nd rounder
Chara - Big name UFA
Marchand - 3rd rounder
Pasternak - late 1st (25 OA)
Rask - Kind of a whatever trade at the time.

Dallas Stars are starting to set themselves up for Long term success. By hitting big on guys like;

Robertson - 2nd round
Hintz - 2nd round
Oettinger - late 1st (26 OA)
Johnston - Mid 1st (23 OA *Wings pick)

And building a great young D core.
They got Heiskinen high, but didn’t tank for years by any means. Nill is putting together a great young core on the fly. No generational phenom needed. No tanking needed.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

irrelevant comment. You can tell yourself anything you want to sleep at night, but their youngsters are steeping up, and only 2-3 of ours are right now. Not a good sign.

In the last 10 seasons the Sabres have had ten Top 10 picks in the draft, including:

2021 1st overall Owen Power
2018 1st overall Rasmus Dahlin
2015 2nd overall Jack Eichel
2014 2nd overall Sam Reinhart

So is your plan for the Wings to be at or near the absolute bottom of the standings for a decade so they can accumulate all these picks and hopefully get some generational talent? Because you seem pretty frustrated after only a few years of rebuilding.

 

[jaster]

Hanas will surprise some

If the "some" are the people expecting him to be a regular NHLer, or better, I agree with you

 

[Frk It]

Sorry guys I just don’t see a path forward for this rebuild and core of a team unless we have a superstar player. How are we gonna get that? No clue, but being a middling team in the 10-16 lane isn’t how you do it. Are we poised to make a big jump next year? I don’t see it. And I don’t think we have anyone in the pipeline to change things. I think our potential right now with our core is 6/7/8th seed team. Teams like Buffalo and NJ are just gonna have way more high end talent than us. How are we gonna change that? The only way I see is tanking, because we aren’t getting that talent in later rounds like old detroit teams.

I don't think we on this board grasp how hard it is to get a superstar player.

When you factor in that not all draft classes offer superstars at #1 and how hard it is to get the 1/2 pick in any particular draft, you start to chase a very low % play.

A lot of these teams that have acquired these superstar players that we covet did not do so through masterful planning, they did so by being incompetent and getting lucky.

This is the sad, but you are unfortunately correct.

I don't see a light at the end of the tunnel either. We have some solid pieces that should elevate the team to the playoffs, but is the end goal to make the playoffs and see what happens, or is the end goal the Cup? The way we are trending, with the pieces we have, I see us as a playoff team in 2 years or so, but not a Cup competing team. The sad and depressing reality is that we should rebuild from the rebuild.

We are stuck in mediocrity, and without lottery luck, I don't see this team on the path to being a contender. Holland really hurt the team with his first round picks from 15-18 (and yes, Ras and Joey V are serviceable NHLers). Combine Holland's drafting with no lottery luck, and we are what we are.

Obviously if Kasper/Edvinsson/Wallinder or other prospects come in and absolutely tear it up, then maybe we could trend towards a Cup contender, but we would need all of our prospects to hit their maximum potential, which just isn't realistic.

This was always the likely outcome with this lottery system. People should be more pissed off about this system and how it does not help teams at the bottom, versus being mad at the decisions being made by our organization.

I predicted a lot of this stuff in a thread when the lottery was re-structured that pre-dates Yzerman being GM and us being out of the playoffs for this long.

 

[jaster]

I like how the pro-tank movement has, collectively, shifted it's underlying point. It used to be, "we should be tanking because it's the fastest way to rebuild." After it was pretty thoroughly demonstrated that that's not true, it changed to, "well, ok, it's actually the slowest way to rebuild, but it's the only way that will succeed!"

I mean, you need 2 superstars to win, we all know that, and the only way to get them is to tank for 10 years straight and pick 1st and 2nd overall multiple times. Simple as that. What's that? Not all superstars are 1st and 2nd overall picks? And the lottery was recently re-designed so that multiple 1st and 2nd overall picks are unlikely over 10 tanking years? Well. Um. It's better than the Wings being stuck in "purgatory" like they are now. If you tank for 10 years, you instantly go from bottom-5 team to top-5 team and get to skip over that! You don't need to work to construct the rest of the roster or anything! Two superstars are all you need! No purgatory you guys!!

I'm glad the fantastic stupidity of that argument is lost on its advocates, because it is entertaining. Especially when "math" is invoked, as if it's on their side

 

[lilidk]

If the "some" are the people expecting him to be a regular NHLer, or better, I agree with you

I never expect him making AHL, but it seems like he is very important part of GR

 

[Holden Caufield]

In the last 10 seasons the Sabres have had ten Top 10 picks in the draft, including:

2021 1st overall Owen Power
2018 1st overall Rasmus Dahlin
2015 2nd overall Jack Eichel
2014 2nd overall Sam Reinhart

So is your plan for the Wings to be at or near the absolute bottom of the standings for a decade so they can accumulate all these picks and hopefully get some generational talent? Because you seem pretty frustrated after only a few years of rebuilding.

More importantly people’s jobs and reputation are on the line. Easy for fans to say ‘suck forever’.

How many GM’s and coaches have been fired in Buffalo/Edmonton during that span ?
I don’t actually know the answer… but my guess would be around 10?

 

[jaster]

In the last 10 seasons the Sabres have had ten Top 10 picks in the draft, including:

2021 1st overall Owen Power
2018 1st overall Rasmus Dahlin
2015 2nd overall Jack Eichel
2014 2nd overall Sam Reinhart

So is your plan for the Wings to be at or near the absolute bottom of the standings for a decade so they can accumulate all these picks and hopefully get some generational talent? Because you seem pretty frustrated after only a few years of rebuilding.

Important to note that Buffalo got extremely lucky too. The odds of getting two 1st overalls and two 2nd overalls in an 8-year span are not very good (about a 41% chance), and that's assuming you finish in last place all 8 years. Buffalo finished last 4 of those years, 5th worst two years, 7th worst another, and 8th worst another. That takes that 41% chance down to about 20%. Their good lottery luck was significantly more than Detroit's bad lottery luck in recent years.

EDIT: updated the math, the odds are actually worse than I originally calculated.

 

[TheOtherOne]

So we are 100% certain right now that 7 years down the line, the Wings will absolutely not have 4 players comparable to Power + Dahlin + Eichel + Reinhart?

 

[Pavels Dog]

Obviously if Kasper/Edvinsson/Wallinder or other prospects come in and absolutely tear it up, then maybe we could trend towards a Cup contender, but we would need all of our prospects to hit their maximum potential, which just isn't realistic.

I don't think it's that grim. It's realistic that Edvinsson becomes a #1D, but this team can still be absolutely fine if he tops out as a #2. His max potential is like, elite #1, perennial Norris caliber.

It should also be noted that the kind of player that people want (elite offensive superstar) is never guaranteed even at #1OA. You ALWAYS need a few guys to reach their max potential, or even beyond their perceived potential. Buffalo has Thompson, NJ has Bratt, Tampa has Point, Colorado got Makar etc etc, none of them were expected to be exactly what they are.