Prospect Info: Wings Prospect Discussion

[newfy]

I guess I'm in the minority then, since I don't see Edvinsson with a top pair ceiling.

I mean, maybe a low end 1B, but I see him topping out as a very good #3 on a championship contender. Skates well, passes well, but not a guy I'd want getting 25+ minutes or facing do-or-die situations.

Nothing wrong with that, and I expect him to be a very helpful piece of the puzzle. I'm just not as bullish on him as others are.

Its one thing to think he wont reach it, but you dont think Edvinsson has a top pair ceiling? You'll have to explain that one because youre not only in the minority but you might be the only non troll alive that thinks that.

6th overall pick who was talked about by at least one team as being their number one ranked player in the whole draft, 6'6, elite skater, physical game and can move the puck. He might be riskier than some but hes one of the highest reward prospects in the entire league so to question his ceiling is really weird. Not to mention you literally say he might be a 1B dman, which is by definition a top pair dman. You dont think he even has the potential to be a number 2 guy?

 

[norrisnick]

Depending on the level of optimism you may subscribe to, IMO Simon Edvinsson will slot somewhere between CGY/STL Jay Bouwmeester and Victor Hedman when all is said and done. To me those are his floor and ceiling comparables.

And in my comparable I'm taking out the bulk of PP production, because I see Simon peaking probably as our PP2 QB. With Seider/Hronek and at some point AlJo/Willy Wally around we've got PPs covered for the forseeable, not that Simon wouldn't be able to handle it. His value will be in ES and PK. Huge, great skater, active stick eating up minutes very much like Bouwmeester.

 

[GoBoltz56]

I believe Edvinsson was Frolunda's top defenseman last year at 18/19 years old playing 20+ minutes a night and also the 1D for the WJC team wasn't he? If so, how does he not have 1D ceiling if he has already been a 1D at every level he's played at? Not reaching it is one thing, but saying he doesn't have the potential when he's already been doing it at this point is laughable

 

[jkutswings]

Its one thing to think he wont reach it, but you dont think Edvinsson has a top pair ceiling? You'll have to explain that one because youre not only in the minority but you might be the only non troll alive that thinks that.

6th overall pick who was talked about by at least one team as being their number one ranked player in the whole draft, 6'6, elite skater, physical game and can move the puck. He might be riskier than some but hes one of the highest reward prospects in the entire league so to question his ceiling is really weird. Not to mention you literally say he might be a 1B dman, which is by definition a top pair dman. You dont think he even has the potential to be a number 2 guy?

I just don't see him having enough offense when there's less time and space to deliver. He strikes me as a smooth skating, better passing Brad Stuart.

Now CAN that guy be a #2 defenseman? Maybe. But if I'm building a roster to chase a Cup, he's on my second pairing and thriving there, rather than having his hands full against the opposing best forwards.

We'll see how his decision making shakes out in Grand Rapids, and then in the NHL when he's ready. I'm perfectly content to be patient with him, even if that means he only gets 5-10 games with the big club this year and then still needs a few more seasons to hit his stride. But right or wrong, I just get get a vibe that he tops out as a big fish in a medium-sized pond, rather than eventually having the chops to handle top pairing responsibilities.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I guess I'm in the minority then, since I don't see Edvinsson with a top pair ceiling.

I mean, maybe a low end 1B, but I see him topping out as a very good #3 on a championship contender. Skates well, passes well, but not a guy I'd want getting 25+ minutes or facing do-or-die situations.

Nothing wrong with that, and I expect him to be a very helpful piece of the puzzle. I'm just not as bullish on him as others are.

A 1B guy is a Colton Parayko level top pairing guy. That's still a top 20ish defenseman in the league.

Seider is already a top 10 guy that can probably break into the top 5 or even top 3 in the near future. So if Edvinsson "only" ends up a top 20 defenseman that's still better than what most teams in the league have.

The teams that have more than 1 guy that's a top 30 D on their roster at the same time are very often contenders with San Jose being the only obvious outlier I can think of from recent years.

 

[norrisnick]

A 1B guy is a Colton Parayko level top pairing guy. That's still a top 20ish defenseman in the league.

Seider is already a top 10 guy that can probably break into the top 5 or even top 3 in the near future. So if Edvinsson "only" ends up a top 20 defenseman that's still better than what most teams in the league have.

The teams that have more than 1 guy that's a top 30 D on their roster at the same time are very often contenders with San Jose being the only obvious outlier I can think of from recent years.

SJ Karlsson doesn't qualify regardless of what some fans may think. And even if you did want to count him, the combination of Burns and Karlsson are among the weakest defensively for top 30 defenseman.

 

[jkutswings]

A 1B guy is a Colton Parayko level top pairing guy. That's still a top 20ish defenseman in the league.

Seider is already a top 10 guy that can probably break into the top 5 or even top 3 in the near future. So if Edvinsson "only" ends up a top 20 defenseman that's still better than what most teams in the league have.

The teams that have more than 1 guy that's a top 30 D on their roster at the same time are very often contenders with San Jose being the only obvious outlier I can think of from recent years.

Go easy. Seider is not already top ten. I love the kid, and I think he is on track for multiple Norris nominations in his career, but I think he's starting the season more like 15-20th in the league (which is still phenomenal).

I think Edvinsson tops out in the 30-40 range. Which is where bad teams put their 1B, but contenders with defense as a strength put their #3.

The good news is that Detroit is drafting so many good defenders that they'll eventually be stacked enough to have 3 blue liners in the top 40 in the world.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Go easy. Seider is not already top ten. I love the kid, and I think he is on track for multiple Norris nominations in his career, but I think he's starting the season more like 15-20th in the league (which is still phenomenal).

I think Edvinsson tops out in the 30-40 range. Which is where bad teams put their 1B, but contenders with defense as a strength put their #3.

The good news is that Detroit is drafting so many good defenders that they'll eventually be stacked enough to have 3 blue liners in the top 40 in the world.

NHL Network had Seider ranked 11th. It was either TSN or Sportsnet that had him at 9th. He was only the 3rd rookie D since 1993 to hit 50 points in a season. And he did this while being 9th in blocks. His on ice goals against was almost 1 goal lower than the team's average goals against. And he did that while carrying Danny DeKeyser for most of the season.

Also I think your expectation of a 1B defender doesn't match what mine is. I consider a true number 1 defenseman to be in the upper half of the players that play in that position.

Seider, for instance, is somewhere between the 7th and 10th best defenseman in the league in my opinion. That's upper half of the 32 #1 D.

A 1B defender is a guy like Devon Toews. Still a top pair guy and would be THE guy on worse teams in the league but is in my opinion somewhere between 17 and 32. That's a 1B defender. Lower half of the #1D.

I don't think there is a single team in the league with a 1B level guy as their #3 defenseman. Tampa might have been it, but now Sergachev is promoted to their #2 (or 1B) since McDonagh left.

SJ Karlsson doesn't qualify regardless of what some fans may think. And even if you did want to count him, the combination of Burns and Karlsson are among the weakest defensively for top 30 defenseman.

I think coaching and chemistry was a big part of it. I lived in Sacramento from 2018 to early 2020 and made the trip to several sharks games during that time. Watching Karlsson and Burns on the ice at the same time was just...awful. But separately they were very good.

 

[Frk It]

2 goals and an assist tonight for Brennan Ali.

 

[lhsgolf19]

Our College guys went off tonight... Mazur, Buium & Dylan James (1st career) with goals tonight, so far

 

[golffuul]

Edvinsson had his first AHL point tonight for GR.

 

[Pavels Dog]

I just don't see him having enough offense when there's less time and space to deliver. He strikes me as a smooth skating, better passing Brad Stuart.

The problem with that comparison is that a bigger (6'6 vs. 6'2), better skating, better passing Brad Stuart is a top pairing d-man on most teams.
There's just too much talent and tools there.

 

[norrisnick]

The problem with that comparison is that a bigger (6'6 vs. 6'2), better skating, better passing Brad Stuart is a top pairing d-man on most teams.
There's just too much talent and tools there.

Yeah agreed. That's an odd statement. Take a #3/4 and improve him in these three different ways. That makes a #1/2 lol

 

[Perfect Human]

Don’t look now, but Mazur has 4g in 3 games

 

[jkutswings]

Yeah agreed. That's an odd statement. Take a #3/4 and improve him in these three different ways. That makes a #1/2 lol

Stuart almost always made the smart, safe play. Edvinsson has a long ways to go in that department, so maybe it was a bad comparison. But I'm getting tired of fans seeing how Seider was a unicorn, and then glossing over the flaws of other prospects and just assuming they'll be able to jump right in the same way.

Again, I'm fine with giving him a few years to figure it out. But I have my doubts about the ceiling of his decision making.

 

[norrisnick]

Stuart almost always made the smart, safe play. Edvinsson has a long ways to go in that department, so maybe it was a bad comparison. But I'm getting tired of fans seeing how Seider was a unicorn, and then glossing over the flaws of other prospects and just assuming they'll be able to jump right in the same way.

Again, I'm fine with giving him a few years to figure it out. But I have my doubts about the ceiling of his decision making.

The rating of Edvinsson has nothing to do with Seider. If you are tired of fans comparing Mo and Simon, maybe just maybe stop comparing Mo and Simon. That's on you.

 

[jkutswings]

The rating of Edvinsson has nothing to do with Seider. If you are tired of fans comparing Mo and Simon, maybe just maybe stop comparing Mo and Simon. That's on you.

I'm saying that where Edvinsson was drafted does not make him an automatic top pairing defenseman, regardless of how well he knocked out of the park in other leagues. Detroit had two rookies hit the ground running to an outstanding degree last season, but that's the rare exception. Normally it takes 2-3 years to be an NHL regular, let alone one making an impact.

So take the names out of it, but the hype train needs to slow down, because it's completely normal that the kid has a ways to go, and he's very much a work in progress.

 

[norrisnick]

I'm saying that where Edvinsson was drafted does not make him an automatic top pairing defenseman, regardless of how well he knocked out of the park in other leagues. Detroit had two rookies hit the ground running to an outstanding degree last season, but that's the rare exception. Normally it takes 2-3 years to be an NHL regular, let alone one making an impact.

So take the names out of it, but the hype train needs to slow down, because it's completely normal that the kid has a ways to go, and he's very much a work in progress.

That has nothing to do with anything with regards to the discussion that's been going on here.

You stated you didn't believe Edvinsson had top pairing updside.

People disagreed and provided their viewpoints

Suddenly Seider, draft position, and development curves are involved?

I don't know about hype trains, but the train of thought here has completely derailed.

 

[lilidk]

So Edvinsson is not as good as I ones believed. Doesn't matter. In 2 years we should have him and Seider on the same line and play 25-30 minutes a game .
Europe is screwed , Kronwall should come to USA ,we need him here

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

 

[jkutswings]

That has nothing to do with anything with regards to the discussion that's been going on here.

You stated you didn't believe Edvinsson had top pairing updside.

People disagreed and provided their viewpoints

Suddenly Seider, draft position, and development curves are involved?

I don't know about hype trains, but the train of thought here has completely derailed.

They're related in the sense that his biggest flaw is both what I feel limits his ceiling and what led to him starting in Grand Rapids instead of Detroit.

You're free to disagree on his ceiling. But Lalonde saw all the turnovers due to decision making and slowed the kid's exposure accordingly.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I'm saying that where Edvinsson was drafted does not make him an automatic top pairing defenseman, regardless of how well he knocked out of the park in other leagues. Detroit had two rookies hit the ground running to an outstanding degree last season, but that's the rare exception. Normally it takes 2-3 years to be an NHL regular, let alone one making an impact.

So take the names out of it, but the hype train needs to slow down, because it's completely normal that the kid has a ways to go, and he's very much a work in progress.

There's perhaps a few that expect Edvinsson to jump into the league and be an automatic first pairing defenseman, but I think that's pretty uncommon even among our most optimistic. Everyone who has watched him the last few years knows that he has a lot to work on still. He's especially struggling with how to use aggressive play effectively right now. He either falls back on making safe plays with little impact, or pushes the pace at every opportunity causing too many turnovers. Offensively his shot can certainly improve. His offensive creativity needs work for finding hidden passing lanes and such. Defensively he could use his size and leverage better physically. He can also be a little slow getting the puck out after he creates a turnover.

But I really can't see how you can conclude that he doesn't have top pair upside. He hasn't played a single NHL game and has the skating, size, stick skills-both offensively and defensively, positioning and gap control to play on a second pairing already. With some steady progress to those skills and a bit more on his flaws, there's no reason that he wouldn't be able to play on a top pairing. If he can totally hit his development out of the park the way that Seider has thus far, there's no reason he can't be a top 10 defenseman in the league.

Sure, he could stagnate about where he is and be an Ondrej Sustr style, 2nd/3rd pairing tweener with the frustrated tools to do a lot more. But with even middling progress, he should be at least a second pairing D by this time next year. From there, the sky is the limit for him. At least, I don't see anything that should put a hard ceiling on his potential. It's still potential until he reaches out, but I find it hard to deny the potential

 

[golffuul]

There's perhaps a few that expect Edvinsson to jump into the league and be an automatic first pairing defenseman, but I think that's pretty uncommon even among our most optimistic. Everyone who has watched him the last few years knows that he has a lot to work on still. He's especially struggling with how to use aggressive play effectively right now. He either falls back on making safe plays with little impact, or pushes the pace at every opportunity causing too many turnovers. Offensively his shot can certainly improve. His offensive creativity needs work for finding hidden passing lanes and such. Defensively he could use his size and leverage better physically. He can also be a little slow getting the puck out after he creates a turnover.

But I really can't see how you can conclude that he doesn't have top pair upside. He hasn't played a single NHL game and has the skating, size, stick skills-both offensively and defensively, positioning and gap control to play on a second pairing already. With some steady progress to those skills and a bit more on his flaws, there's no reason that he wouldn't be able to play on a top pairing. If he can totally hit his development out of the park the way that Seider has thus far, there's no reason he can't be a top 10 defenseman in the league.

Sure, he could stagnate about where he is and be an Ondrej Sustr style, 2nd/3rd pairing tweener with the frustrated tools to do a lot more. But with even middling progress, he should be at least a second pairing D by this time next year. From there, the sky is the limit for him. At least, I don't see anything that should put a hard ceiling on his potential. It's still potential until he reaches out, but I find it hard to deny the potential

Agree. I think people are confusing #1D with Top Pair D. Is Edvinsson a #1D? We don't know. Can he be a top pair D...absolutely.

 

[norrisnick]

Agree. I think people are confusing #1D with Top Pair D. Is Edvinsson a #1D? We don't know. Can he be a top pair D...absolutely.

Ultimately I see Mo and Ed as a two headed monster each on their own pairing. #1 and #2 paired with the 3/4, ala Nick and Vlad or Nick and Cheli.

 

[FabricDetails]