Prospect Info: Wings Prospect Discussion

[izlez]

It means his P/60 is trash and he needs to work on his passing and offensive game if he ever wants to make it in the NHL.

I understand the snarky response, but really... is it indicative of a very high level of moving the puck for a goalie? That has some real value.

I don't watch him. I am asking

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

I understand the snarky response, but really... is it indicative of a very high level of moving the puck for a goalie? That has some real value.

I don't watch him. I am asking

I will say this as someone that when Detroit moved up to draft Cossa looked like the Montreal Mom after finding out Kotkaniemi was their 3rd overall pick.

Cossa is realgud at moving the puck. Is it just realgud, or really realgud? I don't know. I'm not a goalie wonk like some here. But he has shown the ability to intercept dump attempts and make long passes from the defensive zone into the neutral zone.

 

[golffuul]

It means his P/60 is trash and he needs to work on his passing and offensive game if he ever wants to make it in the NHL.

I will say that he looks like could be a Howard...with hands...though

 

[lidstromiscool]

Just went back through and watched all of the goals Cossa has given up in the playoffs. He's given up a number of soft goals, and not just goals when they are up by 4+ goals, he gave up some very questionable game tying/winning goals.

To get even more negative, despite his record, instat rates his performance this playoffs as poor, he frequently gives up more goals than his expected goals against. In addition to that, he's regressed in almost every single statistic from last season (right column) to this season (left column)

And here is a heat map of the goals he's let in from the last 50 games

I will say that you should take instat with a grain of salt because its not always accurate. As well as his division last year was pretty bad, so naturally his stats will look worse playing against better teams. With that said, I am not a goalie expert, but I am mildly concerned. His season in Grand Rapids next year will answer a lot of questions.

 

[ZDH]

TSN has every game of the series, get to check him out tonight again.

 

[Bench]

Just went back through and watched all of the goals Cossa has given up in the playoffs. He's given up a number of soft goals, and not just goals when they are up by 4+ goals, he gave up some very questionable game tying/winning goals.

To get even more negative, despite his record, instat rates his performance this playoffs as poor, he frequently gives up more goals than his expected goals against. In addition to that, he's regressed in almost every single statistic from last season (right column) to this season (left column) View attachment 557228

And here is a heat map of the goals he's let in from the last 50 games View attachment 557233

I will say that you should take instat with a grain of salt because its not always accurate. As well as his division last year was pretty bad, so naturally his stats will look worse playing against better teams. With that said, I am not a goalie expert, but I am mildly concerned. His season in Grand Rapids next year will answer a lot of questions.

The issue is the volume of shots he's facing is so low, like barely over 20 a game, that the numbers will move wildly one direction or another with a low volume of goals.

22 shots.
1 goal against = .955% = elite!
2 goals against = .909% = uh oh is be busting?

To say nothing of a dreaded 3 goals against.

@jaster already summed it up: until he's in the AHL we're just making educated guesses. We'll know more next year, I hope. But even then, everyone is aware the goalie developmental curve is a little different for everyone. Jack Campbell was always an insanely good talent in my eyes, and he was a bust... Until he wasn't. So I've given up trying to narrow things down too quickly.

 

[lidstromiscool]

The issue is the volume of shots he's facing is so low, like barely over 20 a game, that the numbers will move wildly one direction or another with a low volume of goals.

22 shots.
1 goal against = .955% = elite!
2 goals against = .909% = uh oh is be busting?

To say nothing of a dreaded 3 goals against.

@jaster already summed it up: until he's in the AHL we're just making educated guesses. We'll know more next year, I hope. But even then, everyone is aware the goalie developmental curve is a little different for everyone. Jack Campbell was always an insanely good talent in my eyes, and he was a bust... Until he wasn't. So I've given up trying to narrow things down too quickly.

I agree, next year in Grand Rapids will answer a lot of questions. Goalies are notoriously hard to gauge, but its hard to ignore the regression and inconsistency from this season. The low volume of shots didn't affect his numbers last year. Still a really promising prospect, he's a favorite for the memorial cup this year and it wouldn't surprise me if he puts up a .920% in GR next season, Detroit is very high on him for a reason.

 

[Bench]

The low volume of shots didn't affect his numbers last year.

They did, though. They made them really good. His shot totals in a season aren't statistically significant to draw any meaningful conclusions from - positive or negative. Even in the NHL, with more games and shots, normal statistical randomness with goalies takes several seasons to parse.

This goes into the issue with our current goalie stats and why it's tricky to draw meaningful conclusions from what we would traditionally consider meaningful numbers:

https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1026&context=datasciencereview

I know it's frustrating to have someone say, "None of this matters," and then shrug. I appreciate your post, though. It gets me thinking and it's nice to see his progress charted. Unfortunately that's about all we can do right now with Cossa. Goalies are indeed voodoo. I think current goalie scouting is quite a bit better than the past and the traits of winning goalies in the NHL are becoming more refined, but it's still a hugely mental position that is difficult to project long-term.

Here's my current stance:
He has every god given tool to be an exceptional NHL goalie. It's why Yzerman jumped to grab him. It's all there. He's got all those physical gifts that should see him succeed. What happens next, well, that's up to him.

 

[lhsgolf19]

Cossa really good tonight.. 32 Saves in a 3-2 Oil Kings thrilling W, they scored with 4 sec left in the 3rd... Edmonton is one win away from the Title, Game 5 is on Saturday Night.

 

[lidstromiscool]

Cossa looked great tonight, he faced way more chances than last night. Seattle controlled the play for most of the game and only scored on the power play. One more win and they clinch a spot in the Memorial Cup.

 

[Beerfish]

Oiler fan here, Cossa is going to be so good for you guys. Put him on the oilers right now and he'd be he best goalie in the org. Just so technically sound already.

 

[lidstromiscool]

They did, though. They made them really good. His shot totals in a season aren't statistically significant to draw any meaningful conclusions from - positive or negative. Even in the NHL, with more games and shots, normal statistical randomness with goalies takes several seasons to parse.

This goes into the issue with our current goalie stats and why it's tricky to draw meaningful conclusions from what we would traditionally consider meaningful numbers:

https://scholar.smu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1026&context=datasciencereview

I know it's frustrating to have someone say, "None of this matters," and then shrug. I appreciate your post, though. It gets me thinking and it's nice to see his progress charted. Unfortunately that's about all we can do right now with Cossa. Goalies are indeed voodoo. I think current goalie scouting is quite a bit better than the past and the traits of winning goalies in the NHL are becoming more refined, but it's still a hugely mental position that is difficult to project long-term.

Here's my current stance:
He has every god given tool to be an exceptional NHL goalie. It's why Yzerman jumped to grab him. It's all there. He's got all those physical gifts that should see him succeed. What happens next, well, that's up to him.

I think we're on the same page, I was merely pointing out that it gives me a slight pause when his numbers seemed to have regressed a little from his draft year. But as you said, its hard to draw conclusions from his juniors stats. Yzerman and co trading up to get Cossa is good enough for me. And if there is one thing I know about goalie development, it's that I don't know anything about goalie development.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

@jaster already summed it up: until he's in the AHL we're just making educated guesses. We'll know more next year, I hope. But even then, everyone is aware the goalie developmental curve is a little different for everyone. Jack Campbell was always an insanely good talent in my eyes, and he was a bust... Until he wasn't. So I've given up trying to narrow things down too quickly.

Sooo…what you’re saying is we can call Cossa a bust until he’s not one?

 

[SpookyTsuki]

Sooo…what you’re saying is we can call Cossa a bust until he’s not one?

All goalies are busts even when they’re not

 

[Henkka]

Damn, I've been now bit pissed of Red Wings missing to draft TPS Juuso Pärssinen #210 overall at 2019 draft.

We did took Kirill Tyutuyayev and Carter Gylander on both early 7th round picks, when Pärssinen was taken with very late 7th rounder to Nashville. I still remember how I had ranked Pärssinen somewhere to go at 4th round, and how he was still falling and falling at 2nd draft day.

Now, Markus Nurmi was late-blooming NHL-free agent from 2016 draft, which Ottawa didn't sign 2 years ago.

When been watching those Finnish playoffs, and how good these kids were at silver-winning TPS team, it would have been nice to have both Viro and Pärssinen drafted to Detroit. Because I was 100% sure, Nurmi will be signed to same team as his dynamic duo -partner Pärssinen.

And yesterday - a big surprise - Nshville signed Nurmi to join Pärssinen. Eemil Viro has been their friend and this dymanic trio would have been nice to see at Red Wings system.

Dunno, maybe Yzerman will trade Viro later on to Nshville, and will get something else to us.

Pärssinen ei very comparable pick to Tuytyayev, same kind of mentality, except Pärssinen is bigger, stronger, and started shining already at Center, is great at faceoffs etc.

I just don't think our drafting hasn't been very good in Finland, for some reason, if these kind of guys are passed at draft. Mentally strong guy etc. his father was a Liiga-level star, phenomenal gritty, never-surrender playmaker. The information was there, son is becoming just like his das as a bigger, stronger version, just ask from any Finn involved in hockey management.

Lucky Nashville. Drafting a right guy at 7th round - they got now 2 players.

 

[Realgud]

Damn, I've been now bit pissed of Red Wings missing to draft TPS Juuso Pärssinen #210 overall at 2019 draft.

We did took Kirill Tyutuyayev and Carter Gylander on both early 7th round picks, when Pärssinen was taken with very late 7th rounder to Nashville. I still remember how I had ranked Pärssinen somewhere to go at 4th round, and how he was still falling and falling at 2nd draft day.

Now, Markus Nurmi was late-blooming NHL-free agent from 2016 draft, which Ottawa didn't sign 2 years ago.

When been watching those Finnish playoffs, and how good these kids were at silver-winning TPS team, it would have been nice to have both Viro and Pärssinen drafted to Detroit. Because I was 100% sure, Nurmi will be signed to same team as his dynamic duo -partner Pärssinen.

And yesterday - a big surprise - Nshville signed Nurmi to join Pärssinen. Eemil Viro has been their friend and this dymanic trio would have been nice to see at Red Wings system.

Dunno, maybe Yzerman will trade Viro later on to Nshville, and will get something else to us.

Pärssinen ei very comparable pick to Tuytyayev, same kind of mentality, except Pärssinen is bigger, stronger, and started shining already at Center, is great at faceoffs etc.

I just don't think our drafting hasn't been very good in Finland, for some reason, if these kind of guys are passed at draft. Mentally strong guy etc. his father was a Liiga-level star, phenomenal gritty, never-surrender playmaker. The information was there, son is becoming just like his das as a bigger, stronger version, just ask from any Finn involved in hockey management.

Lucky Nashville. Drafting a right guy at 7th round - they got now 2 players.

Talking about TPS... why not Pyyhtiä in 2020? I drafted him on my mock on draft day, I really like him.

 

[SantosHalper]

I just don't think our drafting hasn't been very good in Finland, for some reason

This is a weird problem since our man in Finland Antonin Routa Jr is based in Rauma or atleast was at somepoint, in the west coast city like Turku and Pori. Kivenmäki and Tuomisto are from Pori, Viro is from Turku like Pärssinen & Nurmi.

Saarijärvi & Kotkansalo was drafted from the USHL. Routa was hired in autum 2015, so Saarijärvi was drafted before he was hired and Kotkansalo is from Espoo. I get a feeling that Kotkansalo might have been more familiar to some other scout, before he went to play in the USHL he played in U18 Worlds and probably got noticed there.

Routa must have seen Pärssinen and Nurmi play many times, but how they get passed by the Red Wings is a different question. Håkan is the Director of European Scouting, i don't know how the chain of command goes but my guess is that these European scouts report to Håkan and he makes the final decission.

European scouts:
Thomas Carlsson, hired in 2019, most likely Håkan's right hand in Sweden and probably in Denmark & Norway. Since Yzerman wants Håkan to participate evaluating NA prospects too.

Nikolai Vakurov, hired in 2011, his region is Russia and most likely Belarus & Kazakhstan. Perhaps Latvia too?

Vladimir Havluj Sr, hired in 1999, Czechia and Slovakia must be his territories.

Antonin Routa Jr, hired in 2015, Finland

Tommy Boustedt, hired in 2021, he's a European pro scout.

It seems that we don't really have a central Europe scout. Havluj could scout Switzerland, Germany and Austria, but that's a lot of ground to cover so it's seems bit unlikely.

 

[bedtime20]

Don't know if this has been posted before, but found a cool podcast with Mastrosimone. Funny story about meeting Kronwall. Starts at 7:42

 

[Holden Caufield]

Windsor lost 3-2 in Overtime last night.
Zito with another assist.

Zito is Playing on the top line with Wyatt Johnson And Will Cullye. But Zito isn’t used on the power play.

 

[Frk It]

This is a weird problem since our man in Finland Antonin Routa Jr is based in Rauma or atleast was at somepoint, in the west coast city like Turku and Pori. Kivenmäki and Tuomisto are from Pori, Viro is from Turku like Pärssinen & Nurmi.

Saarijärvi & Kotkansalo was drafted from the USHL. Routa was hired in autum 2015, so Saarijärvi was drafted before he was hired and Kotkansalo is from Espoo. I get a feeling that Kotkansalo might have been more familiar to some other scout, before he went to play in the USHL he played in U18 Worlds and probably got noticed there.

Routa must have seen Pärssinen and Nurmi play many times, but how they get passed by the Red Wings is a different question. Håkan is the Director of European Scouting, i don't know how the chain of command goes but my guess is that these European scouts report to Håkan and he makes the final decission.

European scouts:
Thomas Carlsson, hired in 2019, most likely Håkan's right hand in Sweden and probably in Denmark & Norway. Since Yzerman wants Håkan to participate evaluating NA prospects too.

Nikolai Vakurov, hired in 2011, his region is Russia and most likely Belarus & Kazakhstan. Perhaps Latvia too?

Vladimir Havluj Sr, hired in 1999, Czechia and Slovakia must be his territories.

Antonin Routa Jr, hired in 2015, Finland

Tommy Boustedt, hired in 2021, he's a European pro scout.

It seems that we don't really have a central Europe scout. Havluj could scout Switzerland, Germany and Austria, but that's a lot of ground to cover so it's seems bit unlikely.

I’ve heard really good things about Nyman, I wonder if he will be a target in round 2.

 

[Oddbob]

The issue is the volume of shots he's facing is so low, like barely over 20 a game, that the numbers will move wildly one direction or another with a low volume of goals.

22 shots.
1 goal against = .955% = elite!
2 goals against = .909% = uh oh is be busting?

To say nothing of a dreaded 3 goals against.

@jaster already summed it up: until he's in the AHL we're just making educated guesses. We'll know more next year, I hope. But even then, everyone is aware the goalie developmental curve is a little different for everyone. Jack Campbell was always an insanely good talent in my eyes, and he was a bust... Until he wasn't. So I've given up trying to narrow things down too quickly.

Yeah with goalies there is almost no point in basing their value on junior performance as it really means very little after they get drafted. There also have been plenty of NHL goalies that did well in the NHL despite having poor AHL stats. There was an NHL goalie recently, can't remember who, said it was easier to play net in the NHL than the AHL, because the defence that gets played by the NHL guys is much better and in the AHL lots of players aren't good in that department and it can lead to lots of goals against from bad plays from your D.

 

[lhsgolf19]

Seattle wins Game 5 3-2... 32 Saves for Cossa... Game 6 on Monday Night, Oil Kings still up 3-2

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Seattle wins Game 5 3-2... 32 Saves for Cossa... Game 6 on Monday Night, Oil Kings still up 3-2

Didn't close out the series like Vasilevsky? What a bust!

 

[lhsgolf19]

Game 6 is tonight

 

[Preposterone]

Game 6 is tonight

lmao theyre still doing GotW at this point in the season? With two Keepers eligible?