Prospect Info: Wings Prospect Discussion

[wingerdinger]

Hintz was a good pick.

Johnston as I said before played 7 games total in his draft year. If you think there wasn’t a good amount of luck with how that one player out, you’re reaching.

Youre a very smart poster, you damn well know these organizations start tracking these kids a lot longer than there draft year. They had a lot larger data set to go off of than just 7 games.

I forget were I heard it but there was a video how the scouting network that Jimmy Dellevelano set up for the wings is the most extensive in the NHL. That we have a guy/head coach in consequential youth hockey program in the world.

I wonder if we are getting overloaded with information and it's too much to make the accurate decision.

 

[Frk It]

Youre a very smart poster, you damn well know these organizations start tracking these kids a lot longer than there draft year. They had a lot larger data set to go off of than just 7 games.

I forget were I heard it but there was a video how the scouting network that Jimmy Dellevelano set up for the wings is the most extensive in the NHL. That we have a guy/head coach in consequential youth hockey program in the world.

I wonder if we are getting overloaded with information and it's too much to make the accurate decision.

Yeah but the most valuable data and observations to use are those that happen in their draft year.

We have seen a lot of players look good in their -1 or -2 season and then look shit in their draft year and then go on and not become good players. I can find you 100 examples of where if you picked players off exclusively their -1 and -2 info it would have led you to a shit result.

I commend the Stars for having the balls to pick him while not really having that data but if you don’t think there wasn’t some luck in how that turned out then agree to disagree.

I’m not going to sit here and be mad at Detroit for not drafting a kid who played 7 years in his draft year. That’s a hindsight-based argument for me.

 

[RedHawkDown]

Yeah but the most valuable data and observations to use are those that happen in their draft year.

We have seen a lot of players look good in their -1 or -2 season and then look shit in their draft year and then go on and not become good players. I can find you 100 examples of where if you picked players off exclusively their -1 and -2 info it would have led you to a shit result.

I commend the Stars for having the balls to pick him while not really having that data but if you don’t think there wasn’t some luck in how that turned out then agree to disagree.

I’m not going to sit here and be mad at Detroit for not drafting a kid who played 7 years in his draft year. That’s a hindsight-based argument for me.

I’m sure there is an element of luck but when you hit on player after player outside the top 10, that’s also good drafting. It’s a combo of things. You can’t act like it’s all luck either.

Many teams have had more picks than Dallas since 2017 yet their drafting has wiped the floor with most of the league in terms of producing impact players.

 

[Pavels Dog]

No, you are the one twisting things here.

People aren't expecting Danielson and Kasper to do "historic things". They are just expecting Nate to do what a top 10 pick would normally do in the WHL in their +1 year and for Kasper to do what a top 10 pick would normally do in the AHL in their +2 year.... and they're not.

Not all top 10 picks hit, sadly. I think it's far too soon to call either of Kasper or Danielson busts or disappointments but part of having realistic expectations is understanding that there will be misses.

Also I personally find it difficult to assess the Griffins players. I struggle to believe that Kasper, Wallinder, Mazur, Lombardi, Söderblom, Johansson etc. all stagnated or regressed in their development at the exact same time as a total coincidence.

 

[Frk It]

Not all top 10 picks hit, sadly. I think it's far too soon to call either of Kasper or Danielson busts or disappointments but part of having realistic expectations is understanding that there will be misses.

Also I personally find it difficult to assess the Griffins players. I struggle to believe that Kasper, Wallinder, Mazur, Lombardi, Söderblom, Johansson etc. all stagnated or regressed in their development at the exact same time as a total coincidence.

You’re not wrong. It’s just there is the juxtaposition of “what usually happens” vs. “what will need to happen for this rebuild to work.”

I like how Yzerman came out of the gates with Seider, Raymond, and Edvinsson with the top picks. The last 2 drafts are looking a little dicey at the moment. As others have pointed out though development isn’t always linear, and ASP and Augustine look pretty good so far. I also think NDN could emerge as a real steal.

 

[lilidk]

Watched the game, Buchelnikov was trying play defensive game, but he's not good at that. Game went in 3 on 3 overtime and opposing team pulled goalie out, playing entire ot 4 on 3 and I believe that is not first time they are doing it

 

[wingerdinger]

Yeah but the most valuable data and observations to use are those that happen in their draft year.

We have seen a lot of players look good in their -1 or -2 season and then look shit in their draft year and then go on and not become good players. I can find you 100 examples of where if you picked players off exclusively their -1 and -2 info it would have led you to a shit result.

I commend the Stars for having the balls to pick him while not really having that data but if you don’t think there wasn’t some luck in how that turned out then agree to disagree.

I’m not going to sit here and be mad at Detroit for not drafting a kid who played 7 years in his draft year. That’s a hindsight-based argument for me.

Agree I'm not mad at Detroit, but I don't like just handwaving away all of Jim Nill's draft/development as luck.

 

[Astyanax]

We reached on Kasper, scouts had him between 10 and 24, with an average ranking of 19. Veleno? Higher average then Kasper

Oh. No, Kasper was a riser. Started the year as a 2nd rounder, borderline 1st. He just kept getting better. When he stuck in the shl in his draft year, guaranteed 1st, maybe top 20. And then scoring at .5 pg in the shl PLAYOFFS, pushed him into the top 15 minimum. Top ten likely.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Oh. No, Kasper was a riser. Started the year as a 2nd rounder, borderline 1st. He just kept getting better. When he stuck in the shl in his draft year, guaranteed 1st, maybe top 20. And then scoring at .5 pg in the shl PLAYOFFS, pushed him into the top 15 minimum. Top ten likely.

Yeah, saying Kasper wasn’t top 10 is revisionist. He was great last season and looked like a stud prospect.

This year in Grand Rapids nobody looks like a standout that isn’t named Simon Edvinsson. So either a deep dive needs to be done into our drafting, or a deep dive into the Grand Rapids program that has produced so little in the past 20 years.

 

[Michael Brand Eggs]

or a deep dive into the Grand Rapids program that has produced so little in the past 20 years.

Yeah, I think it's the latter. It's weird how bad they are. My observation is that they seem to be really bad since Horcoff became their GM. Not sure if that's a coincidence or what, but they've really fallen off since then.

 

[newfy]

Yeah, saying Kasper wasn’t top 10 is revisionist. He was great last season and looked like a stud prospect.

This year in Grand Rapids nobody looks like a standout that isn’t named Simon Edvinsson. So either a deep dive needs to be done into our drafting, or a deep dive into the Grand Rapids program that has produced so little in the past 20 years.

Produced so little? Grand Rapids has probably been above league average sending players to the NHL. They often arent a good team, but theyve been a good developmental team

 

[Shaman464]

Yeah, saying Kasper wasn’t top 10 is revisionist. He was great last season and looked like a stud prospect.

This year in Grand Rapids nobody looks like a standout that isn’t named Simon Edvinsson. So either a deep dive needs to be done into our drafting, or a deep dive into the Grand Rapids program that has produced so little in the past 20 years.

Kasper has never looked like a stud prospect. He has always looked like a guy with major questions around his ability to score at a clip that would make him a top 6 center.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Produced so little? Grand Rapids has probably been above league average sending players to the NHL. They often arent a good team, but theyve been a good developmental team

The best they produced is Tyler Bertuzzi since 2013.

Were looking at the following names:
Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, Nyquist, Tatar, Glendening, Abby, Filppula, Helm, Ericsson, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Veleno, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Mursak, Frk, Pulkkinen, Sproul, Almqvist, Oulette, Howard, Mrazek.

That list is mediocre as f***. I don’t care about the graduation rate if they’re all a bunch of guys with a 2.0 gpa.

Kasper has never looked like a stud prospect. He has always looked like a guy with major questions around his ability to score at a clip that would make him a top 6 center.

 

[Frk It]

The best they produced is Tyler Bertuzzi since 2013.

Were looking at the following names:
Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, Nyquist, Tatar, Glendening, Abby, Filppula, Helm, Ericsson, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Veleno, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Mursak, Frk, Pulkkinen, Sproul, Almqvist, Oulette, Howard, Mrazek.

That list is mediocre as f***. I don’t care about the graduation rate if they’re all a bunch of guys with a 2.0 gpa.

Seider didn’t play in GR? News to me.

Yeah, I think it's the latter. It's weird how bad they are. My observation is that they seem to be really bad since Horcoff became their GM. Not sure if that's a coincidence or what, but they've really fallen off since then.

Pointing at the team as to why the players are bad instead of pointing to the players as to why the team is bad is interesting to me.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Seider didn’t play in GR? News to me.


Pointing at the team as to why the players are bad instead of pointing to the players as to why the team is bad is interesting to me.

I forgot about the one season Seider spent there. Still doesn’t invalidate the rest of the post. Detroit’s Grand Rapids prospects have been mostly mid.

 

[Shaman464]

The best they produced is Tyler Bertuzzi since 2013.

Were looking at the following names:
Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, Nyquist, Tatar, Glendening, Abby, Filppula, Helm, Ericsson, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Veleno, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Mursak, Frk, Pulkkinen, Sproul, Almqvist, Oulette, Howard, Mrazek.

That list is mediocre as f***. I don’t care about the graduation rate if they’re all a bunch of guys with a 2.0 gpa.




View attachment 789429

Nyquist and Tatar will likely be 500 point/800 game players. Howard had 500 games, Mrazek could hit 400. Filppula had 500 points and 1000 games. Bert, who isn't my favorite player has had a very good career so far. Larkin played 6 games in GR, so they have that going for them, which is nice.

 

[HoweFan]

I think we have done as well at drafting as 90 percent of the teams. Everybody has their hits and miss’s. The only way a rebuild goes quicker is if you happen to get the first pick in a McDavid, Mathew’s, or Bedard year.

 

[Hockey Know it all]

Nyquist and Tatar will likely be 500 point/800 game players. Howard had 500 wins, Mrazek could hit 400. Filppula had 500 points and 1000 games. Bert, who isn't my favorite player has had a very good career so far. Larkin played 6 games in GR, so they have that going for them, which is nice.

I am not a Howard hater whatsoever but he is definitely not close to 500 wins lol.

Nyquist and Tatar will likely be 500 point/800 game players. Howard had 500 wins, Mrazek could hit 400. Filppula had 500 points and 1000 games. Bert, who isn't my favorite player has had a very good career so far. Larkin played 6 games in GR, so they have that going for them, which is nice.

Also, Mrazek is only at 150 wins or so at 31 years old. I HIGHLY doubt he hits 300 let alone 400.

Where are you getting your numbers from??

 

[Shaman464]

I am not a Howard hater whatsoever but he is definitely not close to 500 wins lol.


Also, Mrazek is only at 150 wins or so at 31 years old. I HIGHLY doubt he hits 300 let alone 400.

Where are you getting your numbers from??

Wrote wins when I meant to say games.

 

[newfy]

The best they produced is Tyler Bertuzzi since 2013.

Were looking at the following names:
Mantha, AA, Bertuzzi, Nyquist, Tatar, Glendening, Abby, Filppula, Helm, Ericsson, Kindl, Smith, Rasmussen, Veleno, Svechnikov, Cholowski, Mursak, Frk, Pulkkinen, Sproul, Almqvist, Oulette, Howard, Mrazek.

That list is mediocre as f***. I don’t care about the graduation rate if they’re all a bunch of guys with a 2.0 gpa.

I think if you went and looked at the majority of teams, that list would actually be pretty damn good for development. Youre missing Seider obviously so when you count him as well, it looks eve better. Edvinsson is also on his way.

I think this is a case of the grass is always greener. AHL teams dont usually pump out superstars, because the really high picks dont spend time there.

 

[Shaman464]

I think if you went and looked at the majority of teams, that list would actually be pretty damn good for development. Youre missing Seider obviously so when you count him as well, it looks eve better. Edvinsson is also on his way.

I think this is a case of the grass is always greener. AHL teams dont usually pump out superstars, because the really high picks dont spend time there.

If you draw a line between The Streak(tm) and the skid then your point stands. Detroit produced as well as you could hope given the fact that Holland traded away a lot of draft capital and Detroit wasn't drafting higher than 15th overall. Afterwards there have been a lot of misses that have held the team back.

 

[SantosHalper]

Technically not a prospect anymore but Tut went home.

 

[RRhoads]

Technically not a prospect anymore but Tut went home.
View attachment 790426

Will be interesting to see how he does when he comes home.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Technically not a prospect anymore but Tut went home.
View attachment 790426

The nugget broke him.

 

[barriers]