Prospect Info: Wings Prospect Discussion

MBauer

Registered User
Feb 19, 2012
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MI
Your expectations are too high. Also, Augustine looks great.
Not at all, why wouldn't expectations be high? We've had top 10 picks, multiple other 1sts, tons of 2nds, so many draft picks. Expecting more than a few players to stand out is not unfair at all, this should be one of the best prospect pools.

We need prospects to become elite players, or the wings will sit in NHL purgatory.
 
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Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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Not at all, why wouldn't expectations be high? We've had top 10 picks, multiple other 1sts, tons of 2nds, so many draft picks. Expecting more than a few players to stand out is not unfair at all, this should be one of the best prospect pools.

We need prospects to become elite players, or the wings will sit in NHL purgatory.
It is one of the best prospect pools, and has been for a while.
 

Shaman464

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May 1, 2009
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It is one of the best prospect pools, and has been for a while.

It’s not been one of the best, they rarely have been ranked top 4 in the last 5 years by most commentators. Those that have usually have done it on the back of a pick they believe is a top prospect they are high on (Ala Pronman was on Kasper last year). There have been very commonly been questions about the lack of high end talent in the prospect pool especially at forward.
 

Pavels Dog

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Feb 18, 2013
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It’s not been one of the best, they rarely have been ranked top 4 in the last 5 years by most commentators. Those that have usually have done it on the back of a pick they believe is a top prospect they are high on (Ala Pronman was on Kasper last year). There have been very commonly been questions about the lack of high end talent in the prospect pool especially at forward.
Took exactly 2 seconds to prove you wrong.
4th, this spring.

3rd, this summer.

Regardless, "top 4" is an arbitrary cutoff and the Wings prospect pool/U23 pool has rarely (if ever) been outside the top 10 in the last 5 years, and the vast majority of rankings have them top ~6 or so.

Why haven't they been higher? The obvious answer is lottery luck. A Connor Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson or other top 3 picks majorly influence these rankings as you can see in nearly every ranking. The team ahead of Detroit, by and large, have lottery (top 3) picks in their system.
 

Shaman464

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Took exactly 2 seconds to prove you wrong.
4th, this spring.

3rd, this summer.

Regardless, "top 4" is an arbitrary cutoff and the Wings prospect pool/U23 pool has rarely (if ever) been outside the top 10 in the last 5 years, and the vast majority of rankings have them top ~6 or so.

Why haven't they been higher? The obvious answer is lottery luck. A Connor Bedard, Fantilli, Carlsson or other top 3 picks majorly influence these rankings as you can see in nearly every ranking. The team ahead of Detroit, by and large, have lottery (top 3) picks in their system.
Rarely isn’t never. Over the last 5 years most rankings have put them around 5-7. I chose the top 4 because in a league with 30-32 teams that would safely include the top 10% of teams for prospect pools, which would firmly be the best prospect pools. The last paragraph though really undermines your whole point, but yes, they don’t have top end talent therefore they don’t usually get ranked as a top prospect pool a lot of the time. It’s funny how that works out.
 

Pavels Dog

Registered User
Feb 18, 2013
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Rarely isn’t never. Over the last 5 years most rankings have put them around 5-7. I chose the top 4 because in a league with 30-32 teams that would safely include the top 10% of teams for prospect pools, which would firmly be the best prospect pools.
Again, that's an arbitrary cutoff that you imposed. The statement was "one of the best". It's pretty fair to say a pool commonly ranked ~5-6, sometimes ranked ~3-4, and on rare occasions even higher can be considered one of the best.
The last paragraph though really undermines your whole point, but yes, they don’t have top end talent therefore they don’t usually get ranked as a top prospect pool a lot of the time. It’s funny how that works out.
You are creating a different discussion though. Again, expectations are too high given what the Wings are working with. If you expect both Danielson and ASP to do historic things, your expectations are too high. If you expect zero of Yzerman's top 10 picks to disappoint, your expectations are too high. If you expect Mazur (3rd round) and Lombardi (4th round) to both kill it in their first pro season... you guessed it, expectations too high.
 

Shaman464

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1. They’re commonly ranked outside of the top 5. It’s rare to see them in the top 3. Their common position is 5-10. Which very well mirrors their draft position. And that’s part of the problem. They aren’t exceeding expectations with their draft capital. They also have a few prospects that are underperforming compared to their draft position. Even the most optimistic rankings still tend to point out the lack of high end forward talent and tend to rank Detroit highly based on having a ton of high floor low ceiling players.

2. It’s not a different discussion. Through bad luck and mediocre scouting Detroit isn’t drafting a ton of high end talent. That’s what is keeping them from having one of the best prospect pools in the NHL consistently and why they’ve had a long stretch in the top 10. Not good enough at the NHL level to see the farm drift into a middling position because of regular good seasons. While also not having a couple lucky draft or having scouts good enough to draft the players that would have them in the top prospect pools as a rule.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,961
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You are creating a different discussion though. Again, expectations are too high given what the Wings are working with. If you expect both Danielson and ASP to do historic things, your expectations are too high. If you expect zero of Yzerman's top 10 picks to disappoint, your expectations are too high. If you expect Mazur (3rd round) and Lombardi (4th round) to both kill it in their first pro season... you guessed it, expectations too high.
No, you are the one twisting things here.

People aren't expecting Danielson and Kasper to do "historic things". They are just expecting Nate to do what a top 10 pick would normally do in the WHL in their +1 year and for Kasper to do what a top 10 pick would normally do in the AHL in their +2 year.... and they're not.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
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We invested our most valuable draft capital in positions that are historically more difficult to acquire (defensemen and centers). We did not have the draft capital to acquire "high offensive upside" centers through the draft.

Time will tell whether this was the correct strategy. Given the difficulty this team has had in acquiring a center at least as good as Larkin over the last half dozen years, I can follow the logic.
 
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Shaman464

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May 1, 2009
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We invested our most valuable draft capital in positions that are historically more difficult to acquire (defensemen and centers). We did not have the draft capital to acquire "high offensive upside" centers through the draft.

Time will tell whether this was the correct strategy. Given the difficulty this team has had in acquiring a center at least as good as Larkin over the last half dozen years, I can follow the logic.
Drafting centers is hard on the whole but when you have years of top 10 and even top 5 picks the odds start to stack in your favor for finding the player you want. But years of drafting wingers too high and character first centers has left Detroit behind the 8 ball more than if they were just unlucky in the draft. That being said, scouting for premium positions outside of the first round hasn’t been good either so Detroit shouldn’t count on building most of a first line from 2nd round draft picks like TBL has.
 

Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
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Drafting centers is hard on the whole but when you have years of top 10 and even top 5 picks the odds start to stack in your favor for finding the player you want. But years of drafting wingers too high and character first centers has left Detroit behind the 8 ball more than if they were just unlucky in the draft. That being said, scouting for premium positions outside of the first round hasn’t been good either so Detroit shouldn’t count on building most of a first line from 2nd round draft picks like TBL has.
When you actually look back at the top 10 picks, which started with Ras in 2017, we really didn't pass on any significantly better centers except for 2017 (where there is a clearly a number of centers taken shortly after Ras who are objectively better NHL players at the center position). I am not sure that simply being in the top 10 will give you access to a ton of center talent as you suggest.

I also don't know why we speak of players and prospects in such hyper binary terms ("character" vs. "skill"). Most prospects don't fit cleanly into a single bucket.
 

Rzombo4 prez

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May 17, 2012
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Guess that depends on what you think of Dvorsky, Kulich, Geekie, Yager, Nazar, Poitras
You hated Geekie in his draft year and I don't think Danielson's D+1 is really looking too different from Geekie's D+1 season. Why the double standard? Dvorsky literally washed out of the SHL, something Kasper never did. Nazar is 5'9" (i.e. NOT A CENTER). Yes, Poitras is better than Kasper but everyone would be screaming about us going off of the board and ignoring consensus if we took him in the 1st.

Your examples would also have been better if you had listed more actual NHL players.
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,961
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You hated Geekie in his draft year and I don't think Danielson's D+1 is really looking too different from Geekie's D+1 season. Why the double standard? Dvorsky literally washed out of the SHL, something Kasper never did. Nazar is 5'9" (i.e. NOT A CENTER). Yes, Poitras is better than Kasper but everyone would be screaming about us going off of the board and ignoring consensus if we took him in the 1st.

Your examples would also have been better if you had listed more actual NHL players.
I liked Geekie a ton, you must be thinking of Ogee.

Hopefully Nate bounces back in his +2 like Geekie did. I think I had a much better understanding of what kind of player Geekie is as opposed to Danielsson though.

I am just pointing out your claim that we didn't have the draft capital to do anything else other than what we did isn't exactly true... but you could certainly argue that some of those players only seem like good choices because of hindsight. I certainly had no clue Poitras was that good.

 
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Rzombo4 prez

Registered User
May 17, 2012
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I liked Geekie a ton, you must be thinking of Ogee.

Hopefully Nate bounces back in his +2 like Geekie did. I think I had a much better understanding of what kind of player Geekie is as opposed to Danielsson though.

I am just pointing out your claim that we didn't have the draft capital to do anything else other than what we did isn't exactly true... but you could certainly argue that some of those players only seem like good choices because of hindsight. I certainly had no clue Poitras was that good.

You got me Frk It! Merry Christmas
 

Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,961
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mavrik bourque is a C, stank is a C, Johnston is currently playing C. Just hack Jim Nill’s emails and do what he’s planning to do
If you think Stanoven is gonna play C in the NHL I have a oceanfront condo for sale in Nebraska for you.
 
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Frk It

Mo Seider Less Problems
Jul 27, 2010
36,961
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Alright 2/3 and they also found Hintz in the 2nd round so my point stands
Hintz was a good pick.

Johnston as I said before played 7 games total in his draft year. If you think there wasn’t a good amount of luck with how that one player out, you’re reaching.
 

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