Tennis: Wimbledon 2024

ZachaFlockaFlame

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I hate to say for a trip to the final so presumptively, but that looks like a semi to me not a quarter given the two possible opponents.

You also gotta feel bad for Keys. If she didn’t get that injury, she probably holds serve for the match against Paolini and is basically playing Navarro for a trip to the final. She’s gotten close so many times in her career, but never won a slam.

Probably fair but how weird that side of the draw has been, it wouldn't be surprising if Vekic or Sun beat Navarro or Paolini. The latter have been awesome though, wouldn't hate of any of those 4 women playing in the Final. All 4 have great stories this year and at Wimbledon in particular this year
 
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kihei

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I haven't considered him as a serious contender to win Wimbledon, but against RBA today, Paul played some awfully impressive tennis. At the very least, I think Carlos has going to have to be on his game to beat him.
 

kihei

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Musetti, returning better than I have ever seen him even if he did (wisely) resort mostly to blocking the ball, knocks off Mpetshi Perricard in four sets to get to his first GS quarterfinal. The final portion of the match was played in the most threatening weather imaginable, but the rain never came. Sigh of relief as the remaining men's matches are under roofs.
 

kihei

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Demon through to the quarters with an impressive four-set win over Fils. He may have pulled a hip or groin muscle on the last point.

Rybakina through to the quarters as Kalinskaya has to resign at 6-3, 3-love. The draw is opening up for her is spectacular fashion.
 
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kihei

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Fritz and Zverev are such an even match-up with one exception: volleys. Zverev is very good volleyer; Fritz is a very reluctant net rusher who would prefer to win from the backcourt. At Wimbledon, big advantage for Zverev.
 

kihei

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Ostapenko blows away Putintseva 2 and 3. Talk about flying under the radar, Jelena has vapourized every opponent, her record in games now through four matches, 48-15. She has yet to allow any set to go beyond 6-3. Always thought grass should be her best surface.
 

kihei

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Got to love symmetry like this: Zverev won the first two sets 6-4, 7-6; Fritz won the last two sets 6-4, 7-6.

Zverev's excellence in Grand Slams this year (Aussie semis; French finals) belies the fact that this will be his seventh five set match this year. Kind of, yikes.

Here is where I trot out my old Arthur Ashe quote about how it is one thing to recover from two sets down to even the match, but it's quite another thing entirely to win the fifth set.

I bet some vCash on Zverev with the express purpose of hoping to jinx him if it came to something like this. GO, TAYLOR.

ca3eec6711ef59cef69de3aa0bf27f73.jpg


Fake money well spent, I'd say.
 
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ZachaFlockaFlame

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Got to love symmetry like this: Zverev won the first two sets 6-4, 7-6; Fritz won the last two sets 6-4, 7-6.

Zverev's excellence in Grand Slams this year (Aussie semis; French finals) belies the fact that this will be his seventh five set match this year. Kind of, yikes.

Here is where I trot out my old Arthur Ashe quote about how it is one thing to recover from two sets down to even the match, but it's quite another thing entirely to win the fifth set.

I bet some vCash on Zverev with the express purpose of hoping to jinx him if it came to something like this. GO, TAYLOR.

ca3eec6711ef59cef69de3aa0bf27f73.jpg


Fake money well spent, I'd say.

Haha, I took Fritz on a bet on a sportsbook. Thought it was chalked after the second set tie breaker but man does Zverev always find some stupid way to cost himself, I think the knee hampered him a bit but still
 
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Rabid Ranger

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Feb 27, 2002
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I haven't considered him as a serious contender to win Wimbledon, but against RBA today, Paul played some awfully impressive tennis. At the very least, I think Carlos has going to have to be on his game to beat him.
Paul has a lot of variety in his game and moves very well. Alcaraz is the favorite, but I think Paul can give him a tough match.

Got to love symmetry like this: Zverev won the first two sets 6-4, 7-6; Fritz won the last two sets 6-4, 7-6.

Zverev's excellence in Grand Slams this year (Aussie semis; French finals) belies the fact that this will be his seventh five set match this year. Kind of, yikes.

Here is where I trot out my old Arthur Ashe quote about how it is one thing to recover from two sets down to even the match, but it's quite another thing entirely to win the fifth set.

I bet some vCash on Zverev with the express purpose of hoping to jinx him if it came to something like this. GO, TAYLOR.

ca3eec6711ef59cef69de3aa0bf27f73.jpg


Fake money well spent, I'd say.
Zverev will likely go down as one of the best players to never win a Slam. Very talented but just doesn't have it between the ears. It didn't help he was playing injured today. Fritz is of course going to wiped out by Nole but a good run for him. It's gotta be such a drag to play in an era where you know you just don't have much of a chance to win it all at the big tournaments.
 

Pavel Buchnevich

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Paul has a lot of variety in his game and moves very well. Alcaraz is the favorite, but I think Paul can give him a tough match.
I'm pretty sure Paul has given Alcaraz trouble in the past. I think Alcaraz won't be that troubled this time because I think he's playing well, but I agree that Paul has a chance.

Zverev will likely go down as one of the best players to never win a Slam. Very talented but just doesn't have it between the ears. It didn't help he was playing injured today. Fritz is of course going to wiped out by Nole but a good run for him. It's gotta be such a drag to play in an era where you know you just don't have much of a chance to win it all at the big tournaments.
I still wouldn't count Zverev out. He's still only 26. Has gotten close numerous times. You figure he will again be right there another few times. At some point it might just fall his way and he gets like an 18 seed in the final after a qualifier in the semi. I know thats not really mens tennis right now, but the landscape will be a little different when Djokovic retires in a few years and it's anyone's guess how the upcoming years transpire for Alcaraz and Sinner. There will likely still be some others who win something, and right now Zverev is in his prime and one of the best players outside of Djokovic, Alcaraz, and Sinner.

As for Fritz, I'd give him a better chance against Djokovic than you are, assuming both get to the semis. Fritz has Musetti in the quarters. Not a gimme, but he should win that on grass. Djokovic has Rune and then De Minaur. He probably wins both, but with that knee injury I wouldn't be as sure as normal. Coming back after like four weeks of surgery is crazy fast. No way he's at 100% health-wise and his form this year has been very beatable. If Fritz faces him in the semis, this will probably be the best chance he's had yet to finally beat Djokovic in a big spot. Fritz is very dangerous on grass and in great form right now. I'm not guaranteeing a victory, but I think he'd make it close. Both now have to actually get there to make that matchup happen.
 

kihei

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Zverev hasn't made it to the quarters in eight attempts at Wimbledon. It is statistically by far his worst Grand Slam.
 

kihei

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How crazy has been women's quarterfinal seeding in the past three years. Seriously crazy, actually beyond seriously crazy:

Wimbledon 2024

13/31
4/21

Qualifier/Unseeded
7/19

Australian Open 2024

Unseeded/Qualifier
Unseeded/12

Unseeded/4
9/2

US Open 2023

20/6
30/10

9/17
23/2

Wimbledon 2023

Wild Card/1
4/Unseeded

6/3
25/2

French Open 2023

1/6
14/7

Unseeded/Protected Ranking
2/Protected Ranking

Australian 2023

22/17
3/24

30/Unseeded
5/Unseeded

US Open 2022

1/8
22/6

12/17
5/Unseeded


Wimbledon 2022

Unseeded/17
16/20

Unseeded/Unseeded
Unseeded/3

French Open 2022

1/11
29/20

Unseeded/17
Unseeded/20

Australian Open 2022

1/21
4/Unseeded

27/Unseeded
7/Unseeded

In the above ten tournaments there have 80 players seeded #1 though #8, only 26 of them have actually managed to reach the quarterfinals. In contrast, 22 unseeded players have managed to make the quarters in this period.


The one outlier, so different that it is positively weird in comparison, is this year's French Open:

French Open 2024

1/5
3/8

12/4
Unseeded/2
 
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kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
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Nole over Rune 3, 4 and 2. Didn't see much of it, but it looked too easy.
 
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Pavel Buchnevich

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Rune is becoming a big disappointment. No way Djokovic who has struggled this year and also on a bummed knee should've beat him that easily.
 
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kihei

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Current betting odds:

Men

Sinner -110
Djokovic -125
Alcaraz +137
Fritz +250
De Minaur +500
Medvedev +1200
Paul +1200
Musetti +1400

Picked Alcaraz and I'm sticking with the defending champion, but these odds sound about right.

Women

Rybakina +110
Navarro +400
Ostapenko +700
Vekic +750
Paolini +1200
Svitolina +1200
Krejcikova +1600
Sun +2000

Navarro at +400 sounds pretty tempting
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
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I'm pretty sure Paul has given Alcaraz trouble in the past. I think Alcaraz won't be that troubled this time because I think he's playing well, but I agree that Paul has a chance.
Bit of an understatement. Two and two head to head over all. Paul won in three sets in Toronto back to back ('22, '23) and Alcaraz won in straight sets in Miami ('23) and in three sets in Cinci ('23).
 
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ZachaFlockaFlame

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Current betting odds:

Men

Sinner -110
Djokovic -125
Alcaraz +137
Fritz +250
De Minaur +500
Medvedev +1200
Paul +1200
Musetti +1400

Picked Alcaraz and I'm sticking with the defending champion, but these odds sound about right.

Women

Rybakina +110
Navarro +400
Ostapenko +700
Vekic +750
Paolini +1200
Svitolina +1200
Krejcikova +1600
Sun +2000

Navarro at +400 sounds pretty tempting

Penko at +700 but I worry once she plays someone who actually pressure her to move that she might be cooked lol. How doesn't Ryba not win this tournament? It's like how the Australian open how opened up for Sabalenka with Iga losing to Noskova and Rybakina losing that insane tiebreaker to Blinkova.
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
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I have seen two highly memorable sports reaction shots in the last ten days, one wonderful, one worrisome. The wonderful one was Beckett Sennecke's absolute astonishment at being picked #3 overall by the Anaheim Ducks in the NHL Entry Draft. I've probably watched that ten second clip ten times and it has yet to get stale. The worrisome one was today after Alex De Minaur had just won match point against Arthur Fils. Having done something to a muscle in his leg, De Minaur looked utterly crestfallen rather than happily victorious. That was memorable but in a hard-to-watch kind of way. Hope he can recover from whatever that was but it sure looked bad at the time.
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
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Sun sets: awful match as Vekic puts Sun down in three sets. Yet, what is with Wimbledon scoring these days? Both these player had plus winner/unforced errors ratios. Which is ridiculous as the match was error-filled from both sides from start to finish. Any chance Sun had was eclipsed by her nerves though Vekic was hardly a model of steadiness herself.
 

kihei

McEnroe: The older I get, the better I used to be.
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Medvedev pretty much dominates the second set to even the match. Quite a recovery from a very tough loss in the opening breaker (9-7).
 

kihei

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Funny old, quaint, antiquated Wimbledon, the dowager queen of Grand Slams. I say, chaps, let's have both men's semifinals on at the same time, what, ho?
 

kihei

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Unlike this year's Australian Open where, after winning the first two sets, Daniil ran out of gas because he had played so much tennis to get there, Medvedev's virtual walk-over against Dimitrov means he has fresh legs this time around. Might be a telling factor, especially if Sinner doesn't come out of this stupor.
 

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