67 others
Registered User
So human he could have scored 0 goals in his career and still be the all time points leader lol
Will Ovi breaking Gretzky's goalscoring record change or influence his legacy?
- Thread starter User9992
- Start date
Ya and Ovy has a Cup. If he gets the goal record he will have a better legacy than Crosby.
BehindTheTimes
Registered User
- Jun 24, 2018
- 7,492
- 10,353
WWYD?
Ovie is a goal shy of tying Gretz's record. It's the last game of the season, or maybe last home game of the season. Caps are up 4-1 with 90 seconds left, and win/loss is inconsequential to the standings. Offensive-zone faceoff.
Do you pull the goalie to try to set up Ovie so he can get the record before the off-season, or at home?
Ovie is a goal shy of tying Gretz's record. It's the last game of the season, or maybe last home game of the season. Caps are up 4-1 with 90 seconds left, and win/loss is inconsequential to the standings. Offensive-zone faceoff.
Do you pull the goalie to try to set up Ovie so he can get the record before the off-season, or at home?
I love the absolute certitude re something so subjective. People are funny.
pi314
Registered User
Unless you value actually winning.
Which I may be wrong…
…but pretty sure is the point of the game.
Crosby has won everywhere he’s played at every level.
The kind of player who loses games 8-6 puts up better stats than the kind of player who wins games 2-1. Dominating 1 stat category is impressive but it isn’t winning.
There are those of us who remember players who actually win.
The Panther
Registered User
This thread topic comes up every couple of months on here, for about the past 5 years.
I'll repeat something I've said a few times before: I think Ovechkin's likelihood of scoring 895 RS goals depends on how good the Caps are.
That is, if the Caps are a strong team for the next few years, still making the playoffs handily and in competition, then I think Ovechkin keeps playing for five more seasons or whatever, even if he gets relegated to 2nd-line, 2nd-unit PP duty the final few. In that situation, the chances of his reaching 895 obviously increase.
On the other hand, if the Caps crash and burn this season and management decides to go into 'rebuild' mode -- or even if they don't, but Ovechkin's peers like Backstrom and Oshie retire or sign elsewhere and Ovi's teammates are all 15-20 years younger -- then I think Ovechkin's motivation drops hugely and he probably doesn't stick around long enough to reach the record.
A lot of long-term record chasing is contextual, and has little to do with the player's ability.
I'll repeat something I've said a few times before: I think Ovechkin's likelihood of scoring 895 RS goals depends on how good the Caps are.
That is, if the Caps are a strong team for the next few years, still making the playoffs handily and in competition, then I think Ovechkin keeps playing for five more seasons or whatever, even if he gets relegated to 2nd-line, 2nd-unit PP duty the final few. In that situation, the chances of his reaching 895 obviously increase.
On the other hand, if the Caps crash and burn this season and management decides to go into 'rebuild' mode -- or even if they don't, but Ovechkin's peers like Backstrom and Oshie retire or sign elsewhere and Ovi's teammates are all 15-20 years younger -- then I think Ovechkin's motivation drops hugely and he probably doesn't stick around long enough to reach the record.
A lot of long-term record chasing is contextual, and has little to do with the player's ability.
snag
Registered User
- Feb 22, 2014
- 9,955
- 11,221
This is not how statistical analysis is done. This is cherrypicking stats. In Gretzkys days, scoring was way easier due to, amongst other things, much smaller goalies, hence there were less shots required for scoring a goal. If you want to call this analysis you need to include a "shots neeeded per game" and "goals per game per team" criteria. Otherwise, you're willfully omitting statistics that will change the picture you are trying to present which would get you an F in statistics class
Obviously you missed this part:
Flip things around and keeping all things equal (we don't deal in hyperbole at HF do we
)Hell, I even put would and could in "quotes"...woulda used air quotes if I could. Would that have made it more obvious?
Yet more history revision.
NHL & WHA Single Season Leaders and Records for Adjusted Goals | Hockey-Reference.com
1. Brett Hull (78), 2. Alex Ovechkin (72), 3. Mario Lemieux (71), 4. Cooney Weiland (70), Phil Esposito (70), 6. Wayne Gretzky (69), 7. Babe Dye (68), Wayne Gretzky (68), Steven Stamkos (68), Auston Matthews (68)www.hockey-reference.com
Adjusted stats residentsleeper.
Of course context is needed that's why there is even a discussion to be had, but how about the context that Gretzky scored 80+ goals while also scoring 200+ points, almost doubling Ovis total for most years? Imagine if he didn't pass as much and just launched shots at the net ala Ovechkin.
Now how much of that was depending on era? Hard to say but Gretzky stood out even more than Ovechkin compared to the others in terms of goalscoring. Matthews just had a season that rival any season Ovi ever had, Stamkos best season goalwise is not far off(if at all) from Ovechkins.
100 years from now, yes. When the children of those who had actually watched Gretzky and Ovechkin are gone, then it will become a new debate.
- Mar 10, 2010
- 35,560
- 33,928
Legacies tend to be subjective. My guess is Ovi’s legacy as the best goal scorer of all time will be validated “more” if/when he breaks Gretz’s record. The raw goal scoring numbers over such a long period of time are unreal! Hats off.
With context Matthews' last season doesn't really rival Ovies 07-08 campaign. If you extrapolate Matthews' goalscoring to full season he would have had 67. Percentage lead over second in goals (Draisaitl) would've been 21.8 and percentage lead over 10th in goals 59.5.
Compare that to Ovechkin in 07-08, he scored 25 percent more goals than second in goals (Kovalchuk), and 62.5 percent more than 10th.
In other words, Matthews managed to score two more goals when league-wide scoring was significantly higher. This is context.
So yeah, I would say Ovechkins 07-08 campaign (compared to his peers) is still more impressive than Matthews' last year, though it's very close to being equal. Matthews had an incredible year (definitely one of the best goalscoring seasons all time), don't get me wrong, this just goes to show how how otherworldly Ovechkins 07-08 season actually was.
Last edited:
- Feb 10, 2010
- 14,418
- 11,365
Yet more history revisions.
Brett Hull (1991) and Mario Lemieux (1989) both topped Gretzky in adjusted goals during Gretzky's own era.
Additionally, even if we don't adjust, Hull is within 7% and Lemieux is within 8%.
Stamkos's 2012 season is within 9% of Ovechkin's 2008, and Matthews is also 9%.
Neither one adjusted to larger than Ovie's 2008.
So again, two different players topped Gretzky in adjusted goals during Gretzky's era. Two players come within 8% in raw stats. No player tops Ovechkin in adjusted goals during Ovie's era, and nobody comes within 8% in raw goals.
So again, the exact opposite of what you said is true: Ovechkin stands out from his contemporaries much more than Gretzky in terms of goal scoring: Not only is his peak relatively higher than Gretzky's, but he led the league 9 times to Gretzky's 5 ( which indicates a far higher prime), and longevity Ovie blows Gretzky out of the water.
That is generous of you to extrapolate and give Matthews credit for goals he didn't score.
Last edited:
JackSlater
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2010
- 19,271
- 14,606
Of course it will influence how he is judged, it's probably the second biggest record in the league. Realistically it makes no difference whether he scores 893 or 895 since we already know that Ovechkin is one of the very best goal scorers of all time, with a good case for the greatest, but he will be judged differently.
When I look at those stats, it certainly shows that Matthews' season did rival Ovie's best.....maybe not better, but certainly comparable. Not really the point though. Ovie probably is the best goal scorer of all time. I don't think he's the most dominant scorer on a yearly basis...Gretzky certainly dominated the competition like no other. I always wonder what may have been had he not been hit from behind into the boards by Suter in 1991 (was 30 years old at the time)....never the same player after that.
What makes Ovechkin so good is not that he scores so much more than everyone else each year, it's that he's able to score a lot of goals almost EVER single year and he keeps going. Eventually, father time will win, but not sure when that will happen.
Yeah but not for long. McDavid will surpass 2000 career points when it's all said and done.
I'll wait a few years before looking at how realistic that is. At first glance, doesn't look crazy to consider (but there is only 1 player to ever score that much)....will take many, many years to get there and a lot can happen in many years. McDavid is at about the same pace Crosby was at the same time in their careers (though Crosby had already gone through the major concussions).
The pace is closer than I thought though when comparing against Gretzky (not points of course). First 489 games of their careers, McDavid has 702 points and Gretzky had 719 assists.
67 others
Registered User
McDavid is amazing. But his game relies heavily on his speed combined with his hockey sense. Wheels are usually one of the first things to fall off with age historically.
It's not impossible he will hit 2000 points, but that will mean he is having 100+ point seasons well into his 30s
CamPopplestone
Registered User
- Sep 27, 2017
- 2,515
- 2,898
I'd still consider Ovy and Crosby basically dead even personally. Everything besides goal scoring Crosby is better, and he's not a slouch goal wise either. Plus playing centre. I find it hard to argue Crosby vs Ovechkin personally. They're such different players, two of the best ever, and influence and impact the game in such drastically different ways. I'd take Crosby over him personally any day, as I'd always take the elite centre above anything else, but they're apples and oranges to me.
I always smile when this argument comes up because it's not actually based on what any said player did in a season but how others did which is bass akwards right?
Adjusted stats is probably a better metric to compare seasons by really.
Welp 2 tonight. Back on track I guess.
