Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

[Gary Nylund]

In 4-7 years, 10M won'be be worth what it is today. If 5 years from now he's the equivalent of a 6M UFA player now, then he'll be 2-3M overpaid, not 4M overpaid. A 6M player would also be a hell of a decline, absolute worst case scenario. Think about what 6M actually gets you in today's UFA market. What's much more likely is that Stamkos's decline as he ages is about in line with his decreasing cap hit as a percentage of the cap. And of course, the best case scenario is minimal to no decline at all, which is also a reasonable possibility.

I also think that if we sign Stamkos, we could potentially be competitive within 3 years, and making the playoffs in 2. So it's not like we have to wait 4 years to get any value out of him, just getting some playoff experience in the next few years will help us out a lot.

Yeah some good points there, I think the point I wanted to make was that at 10m, there is zero chance you get more than you're paying for but a very good chance you get less and some chance you get much less. We also don't know how much the cap will go up so counting on that is risky (but yes, it could happen).

I just hope there's no pressure from the owners to sign him and our brass is truly free to follow their long-term plan as they see fit. If that's the case and they sign Stamkos for whatever amount, I'll trust their judgement.

 

[Menzinger]

I still don't see any possible reason why he signs for a dime less than 11 million per - especially if he goes to a high tax area like Toronto.

His agent holds all the leverage.

 

[Stephen]

I disagree because eventually with that kind of mentality you're going to be in deep with cap troubles.

I think Stamkos is going to get paid a lot of money, and with the right environment, it's my hope he lives up to his price tag.

That said, if we are "overpaying" him, I think I'm okay justifying this because you're paying a premium for a UFA which didn't cost you personnel and assets. In terms of controlling the cap, I'm a big believer in really squeezing your controlled RFAs as hard as possible and not giving people undue raises when you hold all the bargaining power. You saw that when they were pretty hard on Bernier last summer. That responsibility creates the flexibility to be able to go buy things at a retail cost you otherwise wouldn't be able to acquire.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I think Stamkos is going to get paid a lot of money, and with the right environment, it's my hope he lives up to his price tag.

That said, if we are "overpaying" him, I think I'm okay justifying this because you're paying a premium for a UFA which didn't cost you personnel and assets. In terms of controlling the cap, I'm a big believer in really squeezing your controlled RFAs as hard as possible and not giving people undue raises when you hold all the bargaining power. You saw that when they were pretty hard on Bernier last summer. That responsibility creates the flexibility to be able to go buy things at a retail cost you otherwise wouldn't be able to acquire.

You can only squeeze so much with those RFAs too though before you can damage that relationship, but yeah, take advantage of the leverage, I get that.

I don't see a world in which Stamkos is worth 10-12M though, he hasn't been a #1C on a cup winner before. What are we paying for?

I'm telling you guys, I'm watching a bunch of these Lightning games and he looks "Good" and the odd night even great, but not enough to warrant putting out the money people are suggesting on here.

 

[OMO7*]

I could see our new cap guru do something like offer Stamkos a 3 year max deal around 45 million this summer. We have money to burn right now, and the kids won't be getting paid for 3-4 years. Then when Stamkos comes up give him an 8 year 6 per deal. If he wants to be in Toronto long term and bring a cup home I think this could be an option.

 

[HamiltonNHL]

I could see our new cap guru do something like offer Stamkos a 3 year max deal around 45 million this summer. We have money to burn right now, and the kids won't be getting paid for 3-4 years. Then when Stamkos comes up give him an 8 year 6 per deal. If he wants to be in Toronto long term and bring a cup home I think this could be an option.

His agent won't sign a 3 year deal

 

[ACC1224]

I could see our new cap guru do something like offer Stamkos a 3 year max deal around 45 million this summer. We have money to burn right now, and the kids won't be getting paid for 3-4 years. Then when Stamkos comes up give him an 8 year 6 per deal. If he wants to be in Toronto long term and bring a cup home I think this could be an option.

Been mentioned many times already, no reason and no chance the Player would do this.

 

[OMO7*]

Been mentioned many times already, no reason and no chance the Player would do this.

Guaranteed 45M in 3 years. As a player you'd have to at least think about it.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Guaranteed 45M in 3 years. As a player you'd have to at least think about it.

Or get 9-10M for 7 years guaranteed because you can't guarantee he won't get injured in those 3 years.

 

[ACC1224]

Guaranteed 45M in 3 years. As a player you'd have to at least think about it.

Why? He'd get approx. 70 mil for 7 years.

 

[mcleex]

Just get it done and bring him home

 

[Jerkini]

Guaranteed 45M in 3 years. As a player you'd have to at least think about it.

Well if we look at it logically, it's definitely a high risk/high reward type of thing. It's hard to leave that much guaranteed money on the table, but if Stamkos truly believes in himself, he'd be primed to receive that $70 million payday anyway after the three years are up. $115m is definitely better than $70m. Or he can get hurt and walk away with a lot less. Personally I have a "take what I can get attitude", but i've no doubt you need a little bit of narcissism to play at the level he's played at his whole career. How confident is he?

 

[thewave]

Just get it done and bring him home

Can't he wants to finish the season with TB.

 

[ACC1224]

Well if we look at it logically, it's definitely a high risk/high reward type of thing. It's hard to leave that much guaranteed money on the table, but if Stamkos truly believes in himself, he'd be primed to receive that $70 million payday anyway after the three years are up. $115m is definitely better than $70m. Or he can get hurt and walk away with a lot less. Personally I have a "take what I can get attitude", but i've no doubt you need a little bit of narcissism to play at the level he's played at his whole career. How confident is he?

He could also expect to sign another deal when his 7 years are up.

 

[thewave]

He could also expect to sign another deal when his 7 years are up.

He would be better served taking a 6 year deal and gamble that his production will still be top notch due to reliance on his shot (net size expanding or tender equip shrinking). It puts him at an age where he could potentially hammer out a top paying second contract.

11x6 @ 66m he eats 4-7.5m over current best offerings 7x10(.5) and gambles with the changes he is still a 40g+ guy at the end of it.

 

[ACC1224]

He would be better served taking a 6 year deal and gamble that his production will still be top notch due to reliance on his shot (net size expanding or tender equip shrinking). It puts him at an age where he could potentially hammer out a top paying second contract.

11x6 @ 66m he eats 4-7.5m over current best offerings 7x10(.5) and gambles with the changes he is still a 40g+ guy at the end of it.

That's more realistic than taking a shorter term contract.

 

[thewave]

That's more realistic than taking a shorter term contract.

The 3 year deals proposed fail all parties. Risk reward for Stamkos and premature complex contract negotiations for the Leafs to have to endure.

I think my reasoning is at least plausible and makes sense for all parties.

Add: vs. the TB 8.5x8 he leaves 2m on the table and buys 2years. Good exchange.

 

[Jerkini]

He could also expect to sign another deal when his 7 years are up.

That's true, but could he earn another $45m at 33/34? Will he have to play more years to do so? Like I said, it's high risk/high reward. A short term 3-year contract still puts him in his prime earning years when he's up for a renewal at 29. A 7/8 year contract does not.

 

[WTFMAN99]

That's true, but could he earn another $45m at 33/34? Will he have to play more years to do so? Like I said, it's high risk/high reward. A short term 3-year contract still puts him in his prime earning years when he's up for a renewal at 29. A 7/8 year contract does not.

Any player would take the guaranteed money now then risk not making it later on.

 

[ACC1224]

That's true, but could he earn another $45m at 33/34? Will he have to play more years to do so? Like I said, it's high risk/high reward. A short term 3-year contract still puts him in his prime earning years when he's up for a renewal at 29. A 7/8 year contract does not.

True but if the Leafs continue to struggle the next few years it could hurt his value, and of course there is the injury possiblilty.

I just can't imagine a player doing this. I see it as more high risk for marginal reward.

 

[Jerkini]

Any player would take the guaranteed money now then risk not making it later on.

That's why I said it was a high risk/high reward decision. I'm not saying he would do it, i'm just saying there is some value in it if you get down to the nitty gritty.

 

[thewave]

That's true, but could he earn another $45m at 33/34? Will he have to play more years to do so? Like I said, it's high risk/high reward. A short term 3-year contract still puts him in his prime earning years when he's up for a renewal at 29. A 7/8 year contract does not.

If anything were to happen he forfeits 21m(my deal) and 25m-28.5m (Common accepted x7) or 50% +\- of your proposed Contract value. That's pretty much 33% potential give or take.

Who would do that?

 

[WTFMAN99]

That's why I said it was a high risk/high reward decision. I'm not saying he would do it, i'm just saying there is some value in it if you get down to the nitty gritty.

ACC1224 pretty much nailed it, the reward just isn't high enough.

Even if you had the stones and did it and had confidence in yourself, no guarantee you aren't gooned at some point and taken out with a concussion or a low hit (knees).

 

[Menzinger]

His agent wouldn't let him sign a short term deal.

He can guarantee that a GM will offer Stamkos 11ish million over 7 years - if Stamkos signs a short term deal and then suffers a major injury like a concussion he takes a major risk losing out on big money.

 

[Stephen]

Stamkos' birthday has come and gone, and no extension yet...