Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

[Daisy Jane]

TB fan coming in peace. I like poking my head in this thread once in a while.

Hi

A few questions.

What do you think the Leafs would offer Stamkos if he was to hit the UFA market? What do you guys think he is worth? Do you guys think his value is a little inflated in Toronto just because he is from Toronto?

I'm only laughing because this is what we've been fighting over for like a year now it seems like. there are some who feel that he is elite so he should get all the Pennies. most people feel 10-10.5 will be what it is (AAV) - like i know some ppl - i even floated this out, would be fine with a 14-13-12,-10-9-8 diminishing thinger though.

I ask these questions because in TB he has never been a guy who has taken a game over or never been a guy we all think is going to be a reason the team wins a Stanley Cup.

that's what i brought in.... a few threads ago. (and Leafswillrulesometime brings this up often as well).

Last year in the playoffs we saw the triplets, Bishop and Hedman all as reasons that the team was in the finals. Stamkos struggled. Before his leg break he was playing for Jon Cooper and looked like he was worth that kind of money.

hmhm. that's what was said too. the common response was
Cooper is nuts stuff said about the triplets.

Are you guys confident that if you signed him he would all the sudden be a guy you could build around? If he were to not live up to his contract how bad would the media and fans rip him up there?

and that's the #1 question.
a LOT of people think we can.

and a lot of people are thinking even if we can, he'd only be 32 so who cares..

it will be interesting about the "rip up" part. considering that managment wants to create a whole "safe environment" that changes things

I only ask these questions because I assume if he doesn't end up re-signing in TB that he will go back to Toronto. Based on HF speculation. Just curious because TB fans don't think he is worth more than 10 mil but that is likely to be his contract. Are you fans really hoping this deal gets done?? Or is it just something to be excited about once again in Hockeytown Canada??

again. most of us think he'll sign with you. so who really knows.

 

[CupsOverCash]

I'd cut it at 9-9.5M for Stamkos, after that I don't think he's accomplished as much as Kopitar, Toews and Kane.

Stamkos at least until recently with Palat moving to his line, hasn't had the other best forwards to play with on the team as the Triplets were inseparable. Flip/Callahan/Killorn are nothing special (no offense) - Drouin started well with Stamkos got but got injured. Namestnikov has broken out this year for you guys though.

The Leafs would give Stamkos the best possible linemates, but it is clear he needs a legitimate playmaker.

I've watched a lot of games this year for Tampa because I consider Stamkos to be a potential future investment for us. He seems to be playing to avoid injury at times - whether that means he wants to cash in big or so that he's around for the playoffs, just feels like he's holding back.

Thanks for responding.

Also thank you Daisy jane. Agree with you.

So to be clear. You think once he gets his pay day and once he gets linemates (Marner?) that he will be an elite player once again. Fair enough.

He is playing with Palat and Namestnikov right now who I think are both highly skilled and hard working players. He's still been invisible for the most part.

If he's holding out for a deal and then turn it on, that kind of makes sense since he got injured. There are quotes about him saying that one thing he though most about when he was inured and never thought before that incident that one injury could end it all. Perhaps he is playing safe until he gets that contract. He hasn't gone to the net hard like he used to. That could explain it a bit.

These are logical concerns and perhaps possible reasons for why he could turn it around in Toronto.

Yet even before his injury. He was never a guy who was going to put his team on his back and win a game for you. He needed others around him to be great. Is that really what you want to be paying 10-12 mil for because that is likely what it's going to cost. I believe anything less he would have signed in TB already.

Personally I think his agent is trying to get the best deal possible. (Why wouldn't he this is his agent I'm talking about.)

I also agree that he is a guy who is as good as his teammates around him. It's a shame that his perceived value is that high because he is not a 10-12 mil dollar player.

Signing him to that amount means you will sacrifice other pieces and every signing is that much more important.

It already is but you can't just sign a guy in FA just because he is an attractive FA at this point. You have to take less risk.

Which sometimes you make and sometimes you miss on. This is what makes teams great but if you have a guy who is signed for 7-8 years like Stamkos and hasn't been the same since his injury and your paying him 10-12 mil your making a huge risk.

He better be your franchise player or your screwed. I love Stamkos but seeing our other talent and seeing how he is struggling, I don't want to see us make this big mistake.

I'm just curious to see how this plays out especially if he's signed in Toronto. You also have new management and curious to see how they read the situation as well.

 

[Mad Brills*]

 

[WTFMAN99]

Thanks for responding.

Also thank you Daisy jane. Agree with you.

So to be clear. You think once he gets his pay day and once he gets linemates (Marner?) that he will be an elite player once again. Fair enough.

He is playing with Palat and Namestnikov right now who I think are both highly skilled and hard working players. He's still been invisible for the most part.

If he's holding out for a deal and then turn it on, that kind of makes sense since he got injured. There are quotes about him saying that one thing he though most about when he was inured and never thought before that incident that one injury could end it all. Perhaps he is playing safe until he gets that contract. He hasn't gone to the net hard like he used to. That could explain it a bit.

These are logical concerns and perhaps possible reasons for why he could turn it around in Toronto.

Yet even before his injury. He was never a guy who was going to put his team on his back and win a game for you. He needed others around him to be great. Is that really what you want to be paying 10-12 mil for because that is likely what it's going to cost. I believe anything less he would have signed in TB already.

Personally I think his agent is trying to get the best deal possible. (Why wouldn't he this is his agent I'm talking about.)

I also agree that he is a guy who is as good as his teammates around him. It's a shame that his perceived value is that high because he is not a 10-12 mil dollar player.

Signing him to that amount means you will sacrifice other pieces and every signing is that much more important.

It already is but you can't just sign a guy in FA just because he is an attractive FA at this point. You have to take less risk.

Which sometimes you make and sometimes you miss on. This is what makes teams great but if you have a guy who is signed for 7-8 years like Stamkos and hasn't been the same since his injury and your paying him 10-12 mil your making a huge risk.

He better be your franchise player or your screwed. I love Stamkos but seeing our other talent and seeing how he is struggling, I don't want to see us make this big mistake.

I'm just curious to see how this plays out especially if he's signed in Toronto. You also have new management and curious to see how they read the situation as well.

Not right away, but I could see Marner as a guy who could work out with Stamkos.

Not crapping on Palat and Namestnikov either, I think they are really good players ,especially Palat.

I have hesitations in spending a LOT on Stamkos, he's certainly not worth 12M but the reality is he won't get less then 9M, Lightning already made a contract worth 8.5M

Pre-injury I actually did feel he was a guy who could light it up and win you games, but he needs a playmaker to really excel. It's very hard to create offense individually in the league right now.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Thanks for responding.

Also thank you Daisy jane. Agree with you.

So to be clear. You think once he gets his pay day and once he gets linemates (Marner?) that he will be an elite player once again. Fair enough.

He is playing with Palat and Namestnikov right now who I think are both highly skilled and hard working players. He's still been invisible for the most part.

If he's holding out for a deal and then turn it on, that kind of makes sense since he got injured. There are quotes about him saying that one thing he though most about when he was inured and never thought before that incident that one injury could end it all. Perhaps he is playing safe until he gets that contract. He hasn't gone to the net hard like he used to. That could explain it a bit.

These are logical concerns and perhaps possible reasons for why he could turn it around in Toronto.

Yet even before his injury. He was never a guy who was going to put his team on his back and win a game for you. He needed others around him to be great. Is that really what you want to be paying 10-12 mil for because that is likely what it's going to cost. I believe anything less he would have signed in TB already.

Personally I think his agent is trying to get the best deal possible. (Why wouldn't he this is his agent I'm talking about.)

I also agree that he is a guy who is as good as his teammates around him. It's a shame that his perceived value is that high because he is not a 10-12 mil dollar player.

Signing him to that amount means you will sacrifice other pieces and every signing is that much more important.

It already is but you can't just sign a guy in FA just because he is an attractive FA at this point. You have to take less risk.

Which sometimes you make and sometimes you miss on. This is what makes teams great but if you have a guy who is signed for 7-8 years like Stamkos and hasn't been the same since his injury and your paying him 10-12 mil your making a huge risk.

He better be your franchise player or your screwed. I love Stamkos but seeing our other talent and seeing how he is struggling, I don't want to see us make this big mistake.

I'm just curious to see how this plays out especially if he's signed in Toronto. You also have new management and curious to see how they read the situation as well.

I agree with all this. There are so many people who keep flooding these threads with comments like "OMG I can't believe there are people who don't want to sign Stamkos" and they either don't understand, or don't want to acknowledge that signing him for 7 years is a huge risk with a huge downside. If we sign him for 10m and 5 years from now he's a 6m player, we will regret it big-time.

I'd draw the line at around 9-9.5m myself. Still risky even then.

Another thing many people scoff at is that we're not contending for several years to come. That means that what's really important to us is the player Stamkos will be 4-7 years from now and it's hard to imagine he'll be worth 10m at that point.

 

[CupsOverCash]

Not right away, but I could see Marner as a guy who could work out with Stamkos.

Not crapping on Palat and Namestnikov either, I think they are really good players ,especially Palat.

I have hesitations in spending a LOT on Stamkos, he's certainly not worth 12M but the reality is he won't get less then 9M, Lightning already made a contract worth 8.5M

Pre-injury I actually did feel he was a guy who could light it up and win you games, but he needs a playmaker to really excel. It's very hard to create offense individually in the league right now.

Which is why I as a lightning fan hesitate giving him what he is asking.

Even 9-10 mil is a lot of jack for a guy who can't put the team on his back and win games. Ovechkin does it. Crosby does it. Kane and Towes do it. He is not in that class of players.

At this point the Lightning would only sign him to that kind of money because he is a big name. TB is not that kind of team anymore which is why he isn't signed.

We don't care about putting people on our seats with big names. We want wins to put people in the seats.

Spending 9-12 mil on a player limits that consistently happening. I have a feeling Toronto's new management feels the same way. They are not like their ex GMs.

 

[Gary Nylund]

Which is why I as a lightning fan hesitate giving him what he is asking.

Even 9-10 mil is a lot of jack for a guy who can't put the team on his back and win games. Ovechkin does it. Crosby does it. Kane and Towes do it. He is not in that class of players.

At this point the Lightning would only sign him to that kind of money because he is a big name. TB is not that kind of team anymore which is why he isn't signed.

We don't care about putting people on our seats with big names. We want wins to put people in the seats.

Spending 9-12 mil on a player limits that consistently happening. I have a feeling Toronto's new management feels the same way. They are not like their ex GMs.

Yup. Before the injury, he was a top 3 player in the league and that's probably worth about 11m, would pay that for sure as a UFA, maybe even 12. Today however, he's on the fringes of being a top 10 forward so paying him that kind of money is just dumb IMO. Add in the fact that by the time we hope to be a contender he'll be past his prime and yeah, I think I'll be relieved if and when he signs somewhere else. He's definitely worth more to a team in win now mode than he would be to us.

That said, if takes a home-town discount and signs here for 9m, I'll be on the bandwagon.

 

[Suntouchable13]

We do have to be careful because we should care about his cap hit 5 or 6 or 7 years from now. A team that has a window to win now, may not really care about his cap hit 5 to 7 years from now because their window is closed by then. For us, the window will only be opening up in years 4,5,6,7 of his contract.

 

[WillNytheSwedishGuy]

We do have to be careful because we should care about his cap hit 5 or 6 or 7 years from now. A team that has a window to win now, may not really care about his cap hit 5 to 7 years from now because their window is closed by then. For us, the window will only be opening up in years 4,5,6,7 of his contract.

This is why salary structure and a conditional/limited NTC are key here. I'm on board with a 7/70 deal that has him making around 6 million a season in years 6 and 7 + a limited NTC.

The same deal with an ironclad NMC (and he will probably have the leverage to get one), is not a wise move.

 

[Snow Dog]

I agree with all this. There are so many people who keep flooding these threads with comments like "OMG I can't believe there are people who don't want to sign Stamkos" and they either don't understand, or don't want to acknowledge that signing him for 7 years is a huge risk with a huge downside. If we sign him for 10m and 5 years from now he's a 6m player, we will regret it big-time.

I'd draw the line at around 9-9.5m myself. Still risky even then.

Another thing many people scoff at is that we're not contending for several years to come. That means that what's really important to us is the player Stamkos will be 4-7 years from now and it's hard to imagine he'll be worth 10m at that point.

9 - 9.5 is pretty close to 10.I wouldn't turn Stamkos away over that small of an amount.!2 mill is a different story.

 

[Todd Skill]

I only floated the 1 year option because I thought Stamkos could re-up for 8 more years on day one before ever even hitting the ice, making it risk free. Not being able to re-up until Jan 1, certainly would change everything.

 

[Le Cobra]

I believe Stamkos will perform much like he did in his better years if he comes to Toronto. For one, Babcock's coaching is superior to Jon Cooper. Secondly, the atmosphere here is second to none (when they are in playoff contention and especially come playoff time lol). Thirdly, the management here will make sure that Stamkos is treated very well. Lastly, I believe he is the big piece we have been looking for since Sundin left.

It is common knowledge here that the Leafs are in dire need of an ELITE centre and ELITE defenseman.

Stamkos should help us get closer to completing the puzzle of a championship caliber team. Between Bozak and Stamkos, there is no question who you want on your roster.

 

[Menzinger]

Yup. Before the injury, he was a top 3 player in the league and that's probably worth about 11m, would pay that for sure as a UFA, maybe even 12. Today however, he's on the fringes of being a top 10 forward so paying him that kind of money is just dumb IMO. Add in the fact that by the time we hope to be a contender he'll be past his prime and yeah, I think I'll be relieved if and when he signs somewhere else. He's definitely worth more to a team in win now mode than he would be to us.

That said, if takes a home-town discount and signs here for 9m, I'll be on the bandwagon.

I'd peg his "on ice" value at around 8.5-9 million per.

But if the a leafs do end up giving him the 11.5 million per that I think his agent will want, it won't be a total disaster - the Kings won a cup with a 5 million dollar Mike Arochards playing 4th line centre. It seems that a contender can have one questionable contract on the books - but this means that means they can't waste any more capspace elsewhere.

 

[Hobby Bull]

Not if your costs go up for everything you buy, check out the cost of gas sometime, we pay as much for a liter, as they do for a gallon (an American Gallon mind you) but still...LOL

Day-to-day expenses for the wealthy make up a very tiny portion of their paycheck. Do you imagine a high-end athlete compares, for example, the price of a green pepper against a million dollar endorsement opportunity, and decides...nope?

 

[coachbob]

Assuming Stamkos wants to come to Toronto (big assumption) and knowing the Lightning have a chance to advance this year, how about trading for him at the deadline. With Kadri, Bozak, Holland and Nylander already slotted at centre position, one of them has to go. Obviously Nylander is staying and I doubt Holland is of much interest to Tampa. That leaves Bozak and Kadri. Bozak is on a fairly decent deal and could fit well. Kadri is probably going to get more than Bozak in his next contract. but would fit as well.
Would it be such a bad idea to send Kadri straight up for Stamkos at the deadline? I have visions of Stamkos/Marner becoming a much greater duo than Kadri/Marner.

 

[Fogelhund]

Assuming Stamkos wants to come to Toronto (big assumption) and knowing the Lightning have a chance to advance this year, how about trading for him at the deadline. With Kadri, Bozak, Holland and Nylander already slotted at centre position, one of them has to go. Obviously Nylander is staying and I doubt Holland is of much interest to Tampa. That leaves Bozak and Kadri. Bozak is on a fairly decent deal and could fit well. Kadri is probably going to get more than Bozak in his next contract. but would fit as well.
Would it be such a bad idea to send Kadri straight up for Stamkos at the deadline? I have visions of Stamkos/Marner becoming a much greater duo than Kadri/Marner.

TB fans don't believe that they need a C, hence part of the reason Stamkos has played on the wing at times.

 

[Confucius]

he did cost Tampa their 1st overall pick. He cost us nothing if we sign him as a UF A. Based on that I think we come out ahead even if we sign him for more than Tampa offers. After all how much cash would have a team paid for that pick, if the league allowed it.

 

[thewave]

he did cost Tampa their 1st overall pick. He cost us nothing if we sign him as a UF A. Based on that I think we come out ahead even if we sign him for more than Tampa offers. After all how much cash would have a team paid for that pick, if the league allowed it.

Well, I have seen 1st OA get 15m +++. It's hard to do but I think with a franchise player involved it would take about 50m to buy it. I think that if you could you would have to basically spend all the monies the player would make during his RFA time and then some plus factor in the estimated gate that player accounted for and merchandise. So all those things added up may even be more than 50 but probably less than 75m but not if its McDavid or Crosby etc.

 

[WTFMAN99]

he did cost Tampa their 1st overall pick. He cost us nothing if we sign him as a UF A. Based on that I think we come out ahead even if we sign him for more than Tampa offers. After all how much cash would have a team paid for that pick, if the league allowed it.

That's a ridiculous way of thinking.

 

[Confucius]

That's a ridiculous way of thinking.

I see, no explanation necessary? Have a good one.

 

[WTFMAN99]

I see, no explanation necessary? Have a good one.

Just because a team previously drafted someone high and all it costs us is money is a flawed way of thinking.

If you win the bidding war on Luke Schenn (a 5th overall pick) and get him for 4 million this off-season, did you make a shrewd signing? No.

Just like signing Stamkos for 12M + would be brutal for us (you didn't specify a number but just saying it can be taken any number of ways). 9-9.5M is the top of my budget for Stamkos, and even then I'm nervous about Stamkos living up to the deal.

I actually think Yzerman got it right with that 8.5M - he's still well paid, he'd be with a high end team long term, and it allows Yzerman wiggle room to keep the team together.

People willing to move heaven and earth and jumping for joy to get a former 1st overall pick need to re-think the train of thought, or at least the reasoning - Vinny was available all year from Philadelphia and he was a 1st overall guy. Also keep in mind there is a cap to think about long term too.

 

[Ovate]

I agree with all this. There are so many people who keep flooding these threads with comments like "OMG I can't believe there are people who don't want to sign Stamkos" and they either don't understand, or don't want to acknowledge that signing him for 7 years is a huge risk with a huge downside. If we sign him for 10m and 5 years from now he's a 6m player, we will regret it big-time.

I'd draw the line at around 9-9.5m myself. Still risky even then.

Another thing many people scoff at is that we're not contending for several years to come. That means that what's really important to us is the player Stamkos will be 4-7 years from now and it's hard to imagine he'll be worth 10m at that point.

In 4-7 years, 10M won'be be worth what it is today. If 5 years from now he's the equivalent of a 6M UFA player now, then he'll be 2-3M overpaid, not 4M overpaid. A 6M player would also be a hell of a decline, absolute worst case scenario. Think about what 6M actually gets you in today's UFA market. What's much more likely is that Stamkos's decline as he ages is about in line with his decreasing cap hit as a percentage of the cap. And of course, the best case scenario is minimal to no decline at all, which is also a reasonable possibility.

I also think that if we sign Stamkos, we could potentially be competitive within 3 years, and making the playoffs in 2. So it's not like we have to wait 4 years to get any value out of him, just getting some playoff experience in the next few years will help us out a lot.

 

[Confucius]

Just because a team previously drafted someone high and all it costs us is money is a flawed way of thinking.

If you win the bidding war on Luke Schenn (a 5th overall pick) and get him for 4 million this off-season, did you make a shrewd signing? No.

Just like signing Stamkos for 12M + would be brutal for us (you didn't specify a number but just saying it can be taken any number of ways). 9-9.5M is the top of my budget for Stamkos, and even then I'm nervous about Stamkos living up to the deal.

I actually think Yzerman got it right with that 8.5M - he's still well paid, he'd be with a high end team long term, and it allows Yzerman wiggle room to keep the team together.

People willing to move heaven and earth and jumping for joy to get a former 1st overall pick need to re-think the train of thought, or at least the reasoning - Vinny was available all year from Philadelphia and he was a 1st overall guy. Also keep in mind there is a cap to think about long term too.

That is all well in good, however the fact remains if you wasted no assets in obtaining a player you can offer him more than a team who has already invested assets in obtaining him. If the best Tampa offers him is 8.5, Toronto would do well to get him for 9.5.

Same thing with Schenn if Toronto used their 5th overall and then deemed his worth at 3.5 , it would be a good deal for another team to offer him 4 because it cost them nothing to get him.

All that is only true if the player's current team has calculated the correct value for the player. Overpaying by a million per year is not a bad decision, when you get the player at no asset cost.

 

[Stephen]

Assuming Stamkos wants to come to Toronto (big assumption) and knowing the Lightning have a chance to advance this year, how about trading for him at the deadline. With Kadri, Bozak, Holland and Nylander already slotted at centre position, one of them has to go. Obviously Nylander is staying and I doubt Holland is of much interest to Tampa. That leaves Bozak and Kadri. Bozak is on a fairly decent deal and could fit well. Kadri is probably going to get more than Bozak in his next contract. but would fit as well.
Would it be such a bad idea to send Kadri straight up for Stamkos at the deadline? I have visions of Stamkos/Marner becoming a much greater duo than Kadri/Marner.

IF you want to move Kadri, you can always sign Stamkos and then trade him for another asset to another team.

 

[WTFMAN99]

That is all well in good, however the fact remains if you wasted no assets in obtaining a player you can offer him more than a team who has already invested assets in obtaining him. If the best Tampa offers him is 8.5, Toronto would do well to get him for 9.5.

Same thing with Schenn if Toronto used their 5th overall and then deemed his worth at 3.5 , it would be a good deal for another team to offer him 4 because it cost them nothing to get him.

All that is only true if the player's current team has calculated the correct value for the player. Overpaying by a million per year is not a bad decision, when you get the player at no asset cost.

I disagree because eventually with that kind of mentality you're going to be in deep with cap troubles.