Will Leafs Pursue Stamkos? Part 2

[BayStreetBully]

PLEEEEEASE !!! I want to see this.

LOL me too. There'll be enough analysis on this to last us to July.

 

[Stats01]

Two thing worth considering here:

1) 7 vs 8 years may matter less than you think. A lot of people keeps saying "Stamkos is one big hit from a career ender, so of course he'll want the 8th year," but to put things into perspective, guys like Eric Staal, Rick Nash, Jason Spezza are around that age now, so this is far from a retirement contract.

2) If Stamkos tests free agency July 1, the Lightning will not be able to offer an 8 year deal anymore, so that levels the playing field at that point.

I just don't see how he signs before July now...unless TB has a massive change a heart and offers 2 million+ more than their 8.5 million offer I don't see how both parties make up such a massive gap. Stamkos is going to play out the year and knowing Newport Sports/Meehan Stamkos will go to the highest bidder which will be Toronto IMO.

If TB can find an extra 2 million+ to sign Stamkos while still being able to sign Hedman/Kucherov/Johnson/Palat etc. then good for them...I just don't see it.

Also this whole talk from Steven of "I want to be in TB, I want to win here" well Steven why haven't you signed?? I think money/other thoughts are getting in the way here.

 

[Pookie]

i dont see how stamkos takes less then toews and kane. especially if it is with a new team and only 7 years. i think leafs wills sign hin for 7 x 10.75 million. he looses the 8th year but at 32 he will be able to sign another ufa contract.

Unless he injures himself. Like a Horton.

That extra year at $10M or more for another year is a pretty nice insurance policy.

If he is healthy at 33, the same UFA logic applies.

 

[pspot]

Couldn't the leafs sign him to a 1 year deal then an 8 year deal?

1 year 12 mill
8 years 80 mill

Could even make that first year huge and keep the cap hit down on the 8

 

[Pookie]

I just don't see how he signs before July now...unless TB has a massive change a heart and offers 2 million+ more than their 8.5 million offer I don't see how both parties make up such a massive gap. Stamkos is going to play out the year and knowing Newport Sports/Meehan Stamkos will go to the highest bidder which will be Toronto IMO.

If TB can find an extra 2 million+ to sign Stamkos while still being able to sign Hedman/Kucherov/Johnson/Palat etc. then good for them...I just don't see it.

Also this whole talk from Steven of "I want to be in TB, I want to win here" well Steven why haven't you signed?? I think money/other thoughts are getting in the way here.

It's all about leverage.

IMO, the path to a deal is now set. The $8.5M number is leaked. The agents have leaked the $11/12M number. In the end, it's a total package. Do you want 11 over 7 or 10 over 8?

Both sides have said discussions are open.

Stamkos has basically forced both sides into a closed room to hammer this out with saying he won't waive his No Trade Clause. Leverage is his though the team has the one extra year insurance card.

If you are Tampa, there is no way you don't settle.

Right now your choices are:

1. Sign and keep
2. Trade
3. Sign and trade

Put him to ink at a value that you think he can get on the open market. Forget the cash. Give him the open market value. But leverage a limited movement no trade clause.

If there is an issue fitting in the other players on the roster, move him within the 8 years you have him on the roster.

If you let him walk, you get nothing. Sign him and you can still move him down the road.

Tampa's choice is clear. They can't let him walk. He must be signed. If they come back with a number that Newport wants and make that public, it will be hard for Stamkos to backtrack.

It's getting done IMO.

 

[Stephen]

It's all about leverage.

IMO, the path to a deal is now set. The $8.5M number is leaked. The agents have leaked the $11/12M number. In the end, it's a total package. Do you want 11 over 7 or 10 over 8?

Both sides have said discussions are open.

Stamkos has basically forced both sides into a closed room to hammer this out with saying he won't waive his No Trade Clause. Leverage is his though the team has the one extra year insurance card.

If you are Tampa, there is no way you don't settle.

Right now your choices are:

1. Sign and keep
2. Trade
3. Sign and trade

Put him to ink at a value that you think he can get on the open market. Forget the cash. Give him the open market value. But leverage a limited movement no trade clause.

If there is an issue fitting in the other players on the roster, move him within the 8 years you have him on the roster.

If you let him walk, you get nothing. Sign him and you can still move him down the road.

Tampa's choice is clear. They can't let him walk. He must be signed. If they come back with a number that Newport wants and make that public, it will be hard for Stamkos to backtrack.

It's getting done IMO.

Again, disagree.

Their actions seem to be saying they don't know how to best utilize Stamkos and they aren't certain he's worth the big money. They have an entire army of young players to re-sign, some of whom look like they may surpass or have surpassed Stamkos in importance.

They don't seem to be trying to replicate the St. Louis Stamkos recipe.

Maybe they'd rather lose one big fish, and use his money to keep the other 95% of the team together, than to lose 2-3 big pieces and have a stripped down team with a top heavy cast and no real ability to add depth and win a cup?

 

[Heart]

Couldn't the leafs sign him to a 1 year deal then an 8 year deal?

1 year 12 mill
8 years 80 mill

Could even make that first year huge and keep the cap hit down on the 8

Genius, what if we gave him a 2-3 year max contract while we don't need the cap space as much. With a handshake deal that he'll resign at a cap friendly contract for 5-6 years for when we do need the cap space.

3 years at 12.5
5 years at 8

8 year at 77.5

Almost a 2mill a year cap saving for 5 years.

 

[Pookie]

Again, disagree.

Their actions seem to be saying they don't know how to best utilize Stamkos and they aren't certain he's worth the big money. They have an entire army of young players to re-sign, some of whom look like they may surpass or have surpassed Stamkos in importance.

They don't seem to be trying to replicate the St. Louis Stamkos recipe.

Maybe they'd rather lose one big fish, and use his money to keep the other 95% of the team together, than to lose 2-3 big pieces and have a stripped down team with a top heavy cast and no real ability to add depth and win a cup?

Well, let's assess where we are though. Stamkos cannot be traded. So it's a binary decision.

Sign or Let walk. Either or. No other alternatives leading to July 1st.

Except, it's not binary after he signs. You then have a 3rd option.

Trade.

What's the worst case for Tampa if they sign him and keep the team together for another season or two? All their big fish are RFAs and they could free up $4M by letting Coburn walk.

At the very least, keep it together and then move Stamkos and get something back.

It's really their only logical next move based on Stamkos not waiving his NTC. It's all game theory stuff now.

 

[Pookie]

Genius, what if we gave him a 2-3 year max contract while we don't need the cap space as much. With a handshake deal that he'll resign at a cap friendly contract for 5-6 years for when we do need the cap space.

3 years at 12.5
5 years at 8

8 year at 77.5

Almost a 2mill a year cap saving for 5 years.

And he gets injured like Horton and gives up $70+ million?

 

[threeGo]

Genius, what if we gave him a 2-3 year max contract while we don't need the cap space as much. With a handshake deal that he'll resign at a cap friendly contract for 5-6 years for when we do need the cap space.

3 years at 12.5
5 years at 8

8 year at 77.5

Almost a 2mill a year cap saving for 5 years.

This doesn't work in real life. If stamkos gets a career ending injury or an injury that affects his play, whats to stop the Leafs from not re-signing him mat the end of the 2-3 year max contract. Even if they believe they would, they'd face enormous pressure to not sign him to an additional 8 years. It would be a career killer for the GM to sign a guy to an 8 year contract when the guy can't play well anymore.

 

[Stephen]

Well, let's assess where we are though. Stamkos cannot be traded. So it's a binary decision.

Sign or Let walk. Either or. No other alternatives leading to July 1st.

Except, it's not binary after he signs. You then have a 3rd option.

Trade.

What's the worst case for Tampa if they sign him and keep the team together for another season or two? All their big fish are RFAs and they could free up $4M by letting Coburn walk.

At the very least, keep it together and then move Stamkos and get something back.

It's really their only logical next move based on Stamkos not waiving his NTC. It's all game theory stuff now.

The Lightning don't have a very strong hand in this.

Either they give Stamkos the world, or he probably walks. Letting him walk means you've re-couped $7.5 million in cap flexibility, so it's not nothing.

This summer they have Kucherov to sign also, and next year it's Hedman, Palat, Bishop and Johnson as well all at once.

Kucherov is probably going to jump from his $895,000 to $6 million or so.

Lesser RFAs include Namestnikov, Brown, Paquette. Maybe they all get 100% raises from their sub $1 million deals.

So they could be looking at adding between $3 million bucks on Stamkos, $5 million Kucherov and an extra $3 million on Namestnikov, Brown, Paquette. That's an $11 million cap increase on just re-signing their guys. Coburn's $4 million is out, so that's a $7 million increase to just keep the band together.

The year after they probably let Bishop walk and his money goes into giving Palat and Johnson healthy raises. Hedman himself is probably going to jump towards Subban level money, which will break their cap even more even if everything else is under control.

Unfortunately for them, Carle, Garrison and Filppula run out the year after, which sucks for them because that's when $16 million comes off the books, which they could really use now. They narrowly hit the ice berg. So yeah, they better win the cup this year because compromises will have to be made.

 

[Daisy Jane]

And he gets injured like Horton and gives up $70+ million?

Horton didn't "get" injured.

Horton had a chronic degenerative back disorder, and that's why he can't play.

 

[Pookie]

Horton didn't "get" injured.

Horton had a chronic degenerative back disorder, and that's why he can't play.

Ok

Not sure what that has to do with the potential that Stamkos could get injured on a 1 year deal and why that would make very little sense for himself and his agents.

 

[Pookie]

The Lightning don't have a very strong hand in this.

Either they give Stamkos the world, or he probably walks. Letting him walk means you've re-couped $7.5 million in cap flexibility, so it's not nothing.

This summer they have Kucherov to sign also, and next year it's Hedman, Palat, Bishop and Johnson as well all at once.

Kucherov is probably going to jump from his $895,000 to $6 million or so.

Lesser RFAs include Namestnikov, Brown, Paquette. Maybe they all get 100% raises from their sub $1 million deals.

So they could be looking at adding between $3 million bucks on Stamkos, $5 million Kucherov and an extra $3 million on Namestnikov, Brown, Paquette. That's an $11 million cap increase on just re-signing their guys. Coburn's $4 million is out, so that's a $7 million increase to just keep the band together.

The year after they probably let Bishop walk and his money goes into giving Palat and Johnson healthy raises. Hedman himself is probably going to jump towards Subban level money, which will break their cap even more even if everything else is under control.

Unfortunately for them, Carle, Garrison and Filppula run out the year after, which sucks for them because that's when $16 million comes off the books, which they could really use now. They narrowly hit the ice berg. So yeah, they better win the cup this year because compromises will have to be made.

It's tricky no doubt. But they also clear about $2.8M of Sam Gagner's cap hit next season.

Bottom line, they offered 8.5 and both sides acknowledged it is a starting point.

I just don't see a scenario in which they let him walk.

If he wants out, his agents wouldn't have put a public number of 11-12 out there. If Tampa delivered that, then what could he say?

 

[Daisy Jane]

Ok

Not sure what that has to do with the potential that Stamkos could get injured on a 1 year deal and why that would make very little sense for himself and his agents.

considering you keep saying "He can get injured like Horton." I felt you would like that information.

Unless Stamkos has a degenerative back disorder, he can't get injured "like Horton." now if you wanted to use Savard or Pronger it would have made sense.

at any-rate Stamkos isn't taking a 1 year deal.

 

[Pookie]

considering you keep saying "He can get injured like Horton." I felt you would like that information.

Unless Stamkos has a degenerative back disorder, he can't get injured "like Horton." now if you wanted to use Savard or Pronger it would have made sense.

at any-rate Stamkos isn't taking a 1 year deal.

Ok.

He can't get "injured like Horton"

Is that better?

Though considering we are talking about unexpected injuries, Horton's apparently was unexpected.

"Horton finally spoke about this with Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch, and the story is heartbreaking. His degenerative back injury - which literally came out of nowhere, as he never had a history of back problems – has caused him constant agony."

http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/stories/2014/11/13/1113-blue-jackets-horton.html

So um, for what it is worth, maybe he can get injured like Horton after all.

(No idea why this matters)

 

[Gabriel426]

If the Leafs were a perennial playoff team, I think we would have the easiest time attracting most of those players.

All things being equal, I have the feeling Seguin in particular would love to be a Leaf, just because of how fate almost brought him to us. We're also both St. Mike's alumni (though I'm much older than him), and I've heard from mutual teachers how big a Leaf fan he was in high school, as was the entire school. I can't tell with Stamkos and Tavares, although this year made me believe Stamkos wants to keep that option open. I think McDavid would love to be a Leaf as of now, but who knows what happens in the next 7-8 years. I will say though, that it's probably easier to pry him out of Edmonton than it would've been to pry him out of LA.

I think it also depends on what type of team the Leafs are in, and I am not just talking about on ice performance but also off ice stuff, like MGT, coaching....

 

[glue]

I don't get this argument of Stamkos somehow 'missing out'. He's already a multi millionaire and will be making even more money in the near future. Even if he somehow had a career ending injury (God forbid), dude is going to be just fine financially for the rest of his life.

 

[Snow Dog]

I don't get this argument of Stamkos somehow 'missing out'. He's already a multi millionaire and will be making even more money in the near future. Even if he somehow had a career ending injury (God forbid), dude is going to be just fine financially for the rest of his life.

Good chsance he's already worth 50 million.

 

[Mathew]

The problem with tampa is bad contracts, Matt Caryle being 1 of them, and next year they will be stuck with Callahan for the next 5 year's at 6mill, The Callahan signing will be as bad as the lupul signing for them or worse

 

[Stephen]

I think it also depends on what type of team the Leafs are in, and I am not just talking about on ice performance but also off ice stuff, like MGT, coaching....

Depending on the Shanahan and Babcock pitch, they could sell it as a Toronto guy like Stammer as the president, with the Canadian Olympic head coach willing to build a certain program with Stamkos.

 

[Confucius]

And he gets injured like Horton and gives up $70+ million?

I did laugh when I read that.

 

[saltming]

Ok.

He can't get "injured like Horton"

Is that better?

Though considering we are talking about unexpected injuries, Horton's apparently was unexpected.

"Horton finally spoke about this with Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch, and the story is heartbreaking. His degenerative back injury - which literally came out of nowhere, as he never had a history of back problems – has caused him constant agony."

http://bluejacketsxtra.dispatch.com/content/stories/2014/11/13/1113-blue-jackets-horton.html

So um, for what it is worth, maybe he can get injured like Horton after all.

(No idea why this matters)

Degenerative disc disease, not degenerative disc injury. The disease happens over time then suddenly the pain shows up whereas an injury is due to a sudden catastropic event that damages the back, ie mason raymond; broken back.
Semantically, it is an injury, but he was not injured.

 

[saltming]

Question: assuming willie makes the jump and we sign stammer, who would you prefer as our other centre, kadri or bozak?

 

[Macallan18]

nice try.