Will he stay or go? Let's talk some Mr. Huberdeau.

[Dread Clawz]

You can always count on 2 unbelievably bone headed numb skull plays per game from Weegar. Keep him if he wants no more than 5m per year and dump him if he wants more. I try to focus on him when the puck is deep in the d zone and it isn’t pretty.

That's why I can't buy 100% into those charts. Ev def 100%? I don't buy it.

 

[KW]

You can always count on 2 unbelievably bone headed numb skull plays per game from Weegar. Keep him if he wants no more than 5m per year and dump him if he wants more. I try to focus on him when the puck is deep in the d zone and it isn’t pretty.

Yup, he’s worth about $5M on a longer deal or I would accept abs max $6M on up to 4 year deal.

 

[Dread Clawz]

I disagree. Several things at work here. Hornqvist is likely to be traded over the off season to make room for Sasha's new deal. That's 5.3MM in cap room right there. I'm guessing that Vatrano is either part of a deadline deal or allowed to walk after the season so that's an additional 2.5MM. Nutivaara is likely gone as well at 2.7MM.

In addition, Lou's recapture hit and Darling's buyout are off the books after this year and Yandle's buyout drops by 4MM when Huby's extension would begin. That's another 6+MM and if the rumors are true, the cap will be rising by 1MM per year due to the escrow rules in the CBA.

TL;DR version, we have plenty of room to keep Weeger as well as extend Huby.

We might be able to weasel Weegs in, but the larger point is do we really wanna pay 3 d-men 30% of the cap going forward?(Assuming a cap around 85M in 2026). Forsling will need a raise a year after Weegs. So will Reino. Bennett and Hags are up the year after that. Lundell and Knight will eventually make good money, in all likelihood. It isnt just about Weegar.

 

[pantherbot]

It will be really hard to keep Weegar if we end up paying Huby $8M or above as most here suggest.

Assume we buyout Hornqvist next season, because we probably have no choice with the Yandle buyout hit.

For 2023, excluding Huber, Weegar, Tippett, and Knight we'll have...

Centers $16.4M - Barkov, Bennett, Lundell, and maybe Luostar or some other cheap guy
Wings $17.7M - Verhaeghe, Reinhart, Duclair, plus three other guys for $4M (mix of rookies and some cheap vet signing)
Defense $16.7M - Ekblad, Montour, Forsling, plus $3M for Gudas replacement and a rookie
Goalies $10M - Bob
Two extras for ~$1.5M
Dead cap at $3M
Total is $65.3M

Assuming the cap rises to $85M (which honestly I doubt), we'd have about $19.7M to sign Huber, Weegs, Tippett and Knight. If Huber gets $9M and Weegar gets $6M, that's $4.7M left to sign Tippet and Knight. All of the above calculations don't include any rookie bonus impacts and will give us very little flexibility. It can be done, but it'll be extremely tight.

Then in 2024 if we have to resign forsling and replace reinhart, that will be tough. hopefully one of the younger guys steps up to take over for reinhart which can make things easier.

This also assumes the cap goes up as before. If it only goes to like $83M.... Yeah it's not happening.

 

[BB88]

Right, but Hall is one year younger, has the Hart trophy pedigree, and is only on a four year deal which typically have higher AAVs.

So unless you're saying Huby goes for a four-year deal, there's no way he's getting anywhere close to $9M.

This doesn’t make sense.

Huberdeau is superior player to Hall today.

His pay check saw a huge hit due to his Arizona and Buffalo visits.
He kept running into injury issues, his production started to dip and losing seemed to follow him so fairly or not he got locker room issue? tag attached next him.

He ”had” to take a 1 year prove it deal in Buffalo trying to raise back his value and just managed to get it even lower with how abysmal their season was.

Yeah he got a Hart years ago but there were so many many issues after that lowering his value

Panarin got 11.65Mx9, Jeff Skinner got 9M on longterm deal.

Huby will be around Barkov

Also Huberdeau is easily better than Landeskog.
Landeskog is the 3rd best player on his line when he puts up ”big” numbers. Huberdeau can beat those numbers as the top guy on his line

 

[pantherbot]

This doesn’t make sense.

Huberdeau is superior player to Hall today.

His pay check saw a huge hit due to his Arizona and Buffalo visits.
He kept running into injury issues, his production started to dip and losing seemed to follow him so fairly or not he got locker room issue? tag attached next him.

He ”had” to take a 1 year prove it deal in Buffalo trying to raise back his value and just managed to get it even lower with how abysmal their season was.

Yeah he got a Hart years ago but there were so many many issues after that lowering his value

Panarin got 11.65Mx9, Jeff Skinner got 9M on longterm deal.

Huby will be around Barkov

Also Huberdeau is easily better than Landeskog.
Landeskog is the 3rd best player on his line when he puts up ”big” numbers. Huberdeau can beat those numbers as the top guy on his line

Right...I already said Huber was the better player and should get paid more. For older players, the longer term will typically lower AAV, so if Hall got $6M on a 4 year deal, then the equivalent on an 8 year deal would be $5M, which means it's fair that Huber gets $7M on an 8 year deal.

And again for Landeskog, he'll be younger than Huber when his contract kicks in. You can also make the same argument that Huber is not a line driver. He can be in spurts, but he's not one consistently. Like I said earlier, last year he played away from Barkov on the 2nd line, but a lot of his points were picked up on the power play with Barkov and after Bennett joined the team.

You can't use Panarin and Skinner as comparables. Both players were 2-3 years younger when their contracts kicked in and even more importantly, were signed when the salary cap was expected to go up.

Barkov is also not a good comparable. His contract starts 3 years earlier than when Huberdeau's would start. That's a huge difference. Plus Barkov plays center, has a Selke, and is the captain. Put it this way, if you think that Huber is worth 90% of Barkov today, then that's $9M, but then you have to discount that by the 3 year age gap, which at best should put you at $8M.

I really don't get why this is so complicated. Huber will be older than most of his comparables and the salary cap is staying flat. If the salary cap situation wasn't so bad, then yes I could see him getting $9M, but that's not the reality today and it won't be for several years because the players are in a deep hole for their part of the revenue sharing. If by some miracle that situation changes, then by all means sign him to $9M. I want to keep Huber on our team, but it would be a mistake at $9M.

 

[KW]

Tonight brought Hubie’s stock up a crapload for me. His play on the PK really impressed me. He’s become an all around great player.

 

[BB88]

Right...I already said Huber was the better player and should get paid more. For older players, the longer term will typically lower AAV, so if Hall got $6M on a 4 year deal, then the equivalent on an 8 year deal would be $5M, which means it's fair that Huber gets $7M on an 8 year deal.

And again for Landeskog, he'll be younger than Huber when his contract kicks in. You can also make the same argument that Huber is not a line driver. He can be in spurts, but he's not one consistently. Like I said earlier, last year he played away from Barkov on the 2nd line, but a lot of his points were picked up on the power play with Barkov and after Bennett joined the team.

You can't use Panarin and Skinner as comparables. Both players were 2-3 years younger when their contracts kicked in and even more importantly, were signed when the salary cap was expected to go up.

Barkov is also not a good comparable. His contract starts 3 years earlier than when Huberdeau's would start. That's a huge difference. Plus Barkov plays center, has a Selke, and is the captain. Put it this way, if you think that Huber is worth 90% of Barkov today, then that's $9M, but then you have to discount that by the 3 year age gap, which at best should put you at $8M.

I really don't get why this is so complicated. Huber will be older than most of his comparables and the salary cap is staying flat. If the salary cap situation wasn't so bad, then yes I could see him getting $9M, but that's not the reality today and it won't be for several years because the players are in a deep hole for their part of the revenue sharing. If by some miracle that situation changes, then by all means sign him to $9M. I want to keep Huber on our team, but it would be a mistake at $9M.

You put Huberdeau on the market at 9M and every team will jump on him.

Huberdeau today is a franchise level player, Hall at the time of signing wasn’t and not even close.

You lock up your franchise talents to longterm deals still around 30y and let go others.

You are trying to win, it would be colossal to lose a franchise talent like that at that point.

Huberdeau is the oldest guy in your core and he’s not even 30y. You can and should have quality vets on your team.

You sign Huberdeau types not Skinner types

 

[Android 16]

This is a no brainer. He's the most underrated player in the game. One day, we'll look back and fondly remember the era of 11+16. We may never see a duo like that for another 5, 10, 20, hell even 30+ years, and/or never again. Huberdeau wants to stay. Zito wants him to stay. Just work it out and get it done. And if that means sacrificing a depth guy or two then so be it.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

They’ll give the man what they gave Barkov.

 

[pantherbot]

You put Huberdeau on the market at 9M and every team will jump on him.

Huberdeau today is a franchise level player, Hall at the time of signing wasn’t and not even close.

You lock up your franchise talents to longterm deals still around 30y and let go others.

You are trying to win, it would be colossal to lose a franchise talent like that at that point.

Huberdeau is the oldest guy in your core and he’s not even 30y. You can and should have quality vets on your team.

You sign Huberdeau types not Skinner types

All I'm seeing from everyone are qualitative statements and throwing out numbers without any backing up with comparables. I've used actual contract examples as comparables and took into account the differences in age and salary cap situation to come up with what I think would be a fair contract. That's how contract negotations work.

You're the one who brought up Skinner, so I responded that it wasn't an appropriate comp.

Most comparable contracts in the current salary cap situation are the ones I cited in my first post. Landeskog ($7M, age 28), RNH ($5.1M, age 27), Hall ($6M, age 29), and Gallagher ($6.5M, age 28). Huber may be better than these guys, but he will be older plus both Hall and Gallagher took shorter contracts, both things lower AAV.

Go back to 2020 pre-covid, Backstrom ($9.2M, age 32, 5 years) may be a good comparable. They have similar production and status in the org (i.e. number 2 guy). He was older than Huber, but plays center, has proven more, and only took 5 year term. Plus Leonsis wanted to reward Backstrom and Ovie, so he was willing to "overpay" for an older guy. But still, could be a good comp. Given the current cap situation, if Huber were to take a 5 year deal, then something like $8.5M could make sense and I'd be fine with that.

Go back to 2019 and you get even more good comps. Couture ($8M, age 29, 8 years), Wheeler ($8.25M, age 32, 5 years). Huber's better than Couture, but very comparable to Wheeler, especially in how their production has tracked (good, but not great earlier in their career and then getting better later). Wheeler was older, but only took 5 year term. He's also their captain, Take into account different cap situation, and you could argue that Huber gets ~$8M.

So none of the comparables we're looking at says Huber should get $9-10M. It just doesn't make sense. I'm hoping he takes a shorter contract, then he can have his higher AAV and we don't need to pay for his down years. But it still shouldn't be more than $9M...

 

[pantherbot]

Ok here's the projection of our line-up over the next 6 years. We can fit Huberdeau at $9M and Weegar at $6M, but it'll mean we have to rely on the young guys to really step up in 2023 with three ELCs or cheap guys on the wings, one at center and two on defense. This also assumes that Tippett and Knight can be extended at $3M each...depends on how they play I guess, but we've seen some RFA second contracts get out of hand.

We can also just go with a 20 man roster for most of the season and do the roster juggling for injuries. But it will limit our ability to add any extra help through the season or at trade deadline. If the cap goes up more, we'll have some ability to upgrade a little bit. We could also buyout Bob's contract some time down the road if Knight looks ready and then add on a cheaper backup or platoon guy to say a couple million.

I still don't want to sign a 30 year Huber to an eight year contract, and I would be surprised if Zito wants to as well. I'm going to guess 6 years at $8-9M AAV.

 

[Trio123]

We shouldnt pay him more than 5.

He's an average+ player who gets +1,5min icetime on every PP.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

We shouldnt pay him more than 5.

He's an average+ player who gets +1,5min icetime on every PP.

Less than Reinhart?
He's gonna get 8 mil at minimum.
PPG wingers aren't easy to acquire.

 

[Dread Clawz]

We shouldnt pay him more than 5.

He's an average+ player who gets +1,5min icetime on every PP.

Last season Huby had 37 ES points in 55 games.
In 19-20, he 49 ES pts in 69 games. He doesn't just score on the pp.

 

[Dr Beinfest]

If you follow Huby on Instagram, the amount of face time and love he gives the franchise and south Florida is unparalleled.
On top of that, he’s a world class talent. Pay the man. Any other answer is bonkers.

 

[pantherbot]

Last season Huby had 37 ES points in 55 games.
In 19-20, he 49 ES pts in 69 games. He doesn't just score on the pp.

It's relative though. Last year, only three forwards in the top 30 had more points as a % of total from the power play (backstrom, pavelski, and kopitar). So relative to his top scoring peers, he does get more of his offensive production from the power play. He is also generally an offensive focused player with some others getting a lot of PK time in there while also producing at a high PPG rate (stone, barkov, marner). Huber has been on the PK this year which is great, but his offensive production has also decreased relative to his recent norms and I don't think it's unfair to say he's been his typical slow-start self.

Again, I love the guy and want him to be on this team until he retires, it just needs to make sense for both parties. Paying him whatever he wants or paying him the same as barkov is just not smart. I don't want to become the san jose sharks of the east.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

It's relative though. Last year, only three forwards in the top 30 had more points as a % of total from the power play (backstrom, pavelski, and kopitar). So relative to his top scoring peers, he does get more of his offensive production from the power play. He is also generally an offensive focused player with some others getting a lot of PK time in there while also producing at a high PPG rate (stone, barkov, marner). Huber has been on the PK this year which is great, but his offensive production has also decreased relative to his recent norms and I don't think it's unfair to say he's been his typical slow-start self.

Again, I love the guy and want him to be on this team until he retires, it just needs to make sense for both parties. Paying him whatever he wants or paying him the same as barkov is just not smart. I don't want to become the san jose sharks of the east.

Only way Huby gets 10 mil or same deal as Barky is if Bob is moved same year Hubys new deal kicks in and that doesn't seem plausible as Bob controls the NMC until last 2 years.

Anything more than 9.5 mil per and Zito caved.
Part of me believes Huby asked for more TOI aka PK time to boost his leverage but also curious why management/Q/Brunette would go along with that since he never really did it in the past.

 

[pantherbot]

Only way Huby gets 10 mil or same deal as Barky is if Bob is moved same year Hubys new deal kicks in and that doesn't seem plausible as Bob controls the NMC until last 2 years.

Anything more than 9.5 mil per and Zito caved.
Part of me believes Huby asked for more TOI aka PK time to boost his leverage but also curious why management/Q/Brunette would go along with that since he never really did it in the past.

Interesting observation on the PK time. He's done a good job on the PK, but I wonder what that'll do to his production as some of his minutes are diverted to PK and away from PP/ES play. If he can do the PK minutes and keep his production up, then his stock will definitely go up.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Interesting observation on the PK time. He's done a good job on the PK, but I wonder what that'll do to his production as some of his minutes are diverted to PK and away from PP/ES play. If he can do the PK minutes and keep his production up, then his stock will definitely go up.

For sure, didn't think he had it in him but he looks "comfortable" out there.

Barkov-Lundell and Benny-Huby are capable of shutting things down but also can sneak a SHG if the opportunity arises.

My only worry is one of them blocking a shot and losing them to injury. Usually prefer bottom 6 guys doing that but PK has been the biggest change from last year no?

I remember it being decent to start the year but it slipped a ton by mid way point and became a big reason why we didn't win the TB series (nobody was stopping that PP though), along with lack of discipline and EK5 missing.

 

[pantherbot]

For sure, didn't think he had it in him but he looks "comfortable" out there.

Barkov-Lundell and Benny-Huby are capable of shutting things down but also can sneak a SHG if the opportunity arises.

My only worry is one of them blocking a shot and losing them to injury. Usually prefer bottom 6 guys doing that but PK has been the biggest change from last year no?

I remember it being decent to start the year but it slipped a ton by mid way point and became a big reason why we didn't win the TB series (nobody was stopping that PP though), along with lack of discipline and EK5 missing.

Completely agree, especially on the bolded part. Plus I also want to free the top guys up for more ES/PP time vs. PK time. Barkov's been able to do the PK and produce, we'll see if Huby can do that too. If he can, he's gone up another level.

 

[Gentle Man]

I dont think Lundell is going to jump to six right after his entry level.

And I certainly dont think Duclair will be dropping to 1. Nor Bennett to 3 (if he keeps up production. Why wont he next to Huberdeau)

Reinhart wont drop to 5

I also dont think Ekblad gets 10. Maybe 9.

Vatrano will get more than 900k whether here or elsewhere.

 

[pantherbot]

I dont think Lundell is going to jump to six right after his entry level.

And I certainly dont think Duclair will be dropping to 1. Nor Bennett to 3 (if he keeps up production. Why wont he next to Huberdeau)

Reinhart wont drop to 5

I also dont think Ekblad gets 10. Maybe 9.

Vatrano will get more than 900k whether here or elsewhere.

Given the second contracts that we've been seeing for rising stars, if Lundell keeps tracking the way he's going, he is absolutely getting $6M or potentially higher. Assuming he becomes what he looks like he will become right now, we'd want to lock him up for 8 years, which would be his prim 23-31 years that includes 6 UFA years. Svechnikov, Tkachuk, Kaprizov were around $8-9M. Batherson got $5M! Plus the salary cap should be higher by then. We're making comparisons between Lundell and Barkov...so yeah his prime years are gonna cost us.

The other projections for Duclair, Bennett, Vatrano and Reinhart aren't what I'm expecting they'll get paid. It's what their replacement could get paid because we won't be able to afford to keep those guys. That's what I mean when I say we'll need to downgrade on depth and then also rely on youngsters to come up. So Duclair and Vatrano are essentially getting replaced by some rookies, Reinhart by some free agent signing, and Bennett maybe it's Luostar who deserves to get paid like a good 3rd liner or some other guy we need to slot in there.

If you're saying Huberdeau gets $9-10M, why wouldn't Ekblad get $10M? Ekblad will be younger, he's a number 1 dman who can score, and the salary cap will go up. Look at what Jones and Nurse just signed for.

Again, I'm looking at comparable contracts for comparable players and taking into account age and salary cap situation. That's why I don't feel a 30 year-old Huber should get $9M for 8 years.

 

[FrolikFan67]

I’m hoping for 7 at 8.5per, if Zito can keep it at 9per at the most, preferably under, that’d be a very solid deal

 

[Gentle Man]

Soooooo


Zito probably will try to work out the extension before the start of next season like he did with Barky.


This contract is lookin more and more like a 9 or a 10