Why will this team not go all in?

[Menzinger]

There is a lot to like about Chych for the Leafs. Mostly, he's young on a cheap contract with three more years. Makes him very valuable to us given our budget strapped D corps, which isn't going to change while we have four very expensive forwards that don't drive their own line. But also, Chych adds physical presence to the back end, and a bomb from the point.

Word is he's comfortable on the right side. If true, on paper he could be perfect for Rielly, and given his age, could also be a perfect long term replacement for Muzzy when he fades away.

Ideally he would be a righty, but if the plan is to spend no more than 22M on defence then he makes a good target.

There's definitely a lot to like about the guy - BUT - he's obviously going to cost a lot to acquire, and it's to improve a position that the team is at least fine at. Which means if the team trades for him therea less assets to spend on other areas. If he can play on the right it's more of a consideration - but as far as I know he doesn't.

 

[Leaf Fans]

Yeah it's always a random sport, Leafs are unlucky, the outplay everyone yet still lose
Just stop

It might appear that way to you, but you are only using six series'. I think we haven't been good enough. We have had things go against us, but not something that is significant.

 

[notbias]

Yeah it's always a random sport, Leafs are unlucky, the outplay everyone yet still lose
Just stop

Hockey is luckiest major North American sport: Researchers

In the opening game of the second-round series between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Minnesota Wild last May, the teams were tied 3-3 through almost two periods at…

torontosun.com

Don't expect you to read it, but hockey is a lot less predictable than every other major sport, this should be obvious to anyone who watches the game. There is a lot of luck involved in hockey.

At the deadline if we spend all our futures on Miller + Huberdeau, no one on paper even comes close to us... but I bet it is still most likely we don't win the cup.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

We can’t go all in anymore IMO given how many firsts we have already given up. One has to hope that players like Knies and Amirov will be ready to go at the end of this season or at worst starting next. Plus the notion that one of Neimela or Villeneuve or another steps up on D to also take it to the next level.

The questions swirling around the goal crease is another massive grey area. Our goalie prospect pool isn’t exactly that elite and nobody has pushed their name forward as a clear cut future starter.

See where this group takes it and if we aren’t good enough by the TDL make the tough call to pull it back for a year if need be. Just ensure both AM and Nylander are ready to sign long term deals before NMC kicks in. The Avs a few years took a step back and landed Markar. Not saying we would be so lucky but it’s not the worst thing in the world long term.

Why even mention Amirov? Is his brain tumor gone? If so that's awesome

 

[Buffaloed]

I don't see any master plan when I look at Dubas. He's erratic and seems to be bent on acquiring the medias favorite players even if they don't fit. They went for it with Tavares and it really set them back. Colorado should be the Leafs model. Build through the draft. Don't try to force what isn't there.

 

[Confucius]

Noting, it's July 22nd. There will still be changes before October when we play games. Then there will be 3-5 roster changes between October, and when we enter the playoffs. But people lack patience, and want everything done today.

Lack of patience is the key. Seems like every year come trade deadline, the song is we have to go all in now. We are so close just trade our 1st and 2nd’s for help now.

We will see if we keep our 1st , my bet not a chance. Lol!

 

[zeke]

I don't see any master plan when I look at Dubas. He's erratic and seems to be bent on acquiring the medias favorite players even if they don't fit. They went for it with Tavares and it really set them back. Colorado should be the Leafs model. Build through the draft. Don't try to force what isn't there.

Drafted players

Colorado

Landeskog '11
MacKinnon '13
Rantanen '15
Makar '17
Byram '19
Newhook '19


Toronto

Rielly '12
Nylander '14
Engvall '14
Marner '15
Matthews '16
Liljegren '17
Sandin '18
(Holmberg '18)
(Robertson '19)
(Abruzzese '19)

 

[Buffaloed]

Drafted players

Colorado

Landeskog '11
MacKinnon '13
Rantanen '15
Makar '17
Byram '19
Newhook '19


Toronto

Rielly '12
Nylander '14
Engvall '14
Marner '15
Matthews '16
Liljegren '17
Sandin '18
(Holmberg '18)
(Robertson '19)
(Abruzzese '19)

There's some nice players but Reilly is a glorified 2nd pair damn. The Leafs need to identify a core of guys that will be skate through walls for them. Keefe hasn't challenged them enough.

It's the quality of the drafted players and keeping the right ones that matters not the quantity.

 

[supermann_98]

Why will this team not go all in?

I honestly think the management team hasn't gone all-in because the players haven't shown they should go all in.

Win a round, show you know how to win a clinching game and close a series, and the team will reward you with major reinforcements at the deadline or at free agent frenzy.

Would you go all-in on a bunch of guys who've proven to show NO ability to win in the playoffs?

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

There's some nice players but Reilly is a glorified 2nd pair damn. The Leafs need to identify a core of guys that will be skate through walls for them. Keefe hasn't challenged them enough.

It's the quality of the drafted players and keeping the right ones that matters not the quantity.

 

[andora]

Exactly! Do you go all in on rentals at the trade deadline and hope for post season sucess or do continue to keep drafting, developing and one day bring them up to the big club?

Both but you try and get to the point where you are adding coglianos and not folignos

 

[notDatsyuk]

They went 'all in' a few years ago by signing what they thought would be a #1C (even though they already had one) for a large overpayment, which means they haven't had the money to do anything since.

 

[613Leafer]

Trading away a big package for a big pending UFA seems to backfire 90%+ of the time. For the package it would take to obtain Miller, who would for sure leave next summer due to our cap constraints, we could obtain a younger player with term who could play in the middle of our lineup, but with upside to take on a larger role with some further development.

Tampa trading Drouin for Sergachev, Colorado trading Barrie + Kerfoot for Kadri, Colorado trading a prospect + 2nd + 3rd for Burakovsky, Colorado trading two 2nds for D. Toews, etc are the types of moves I like. Trade value generally doesn't even seem all that high, and you often get a really key core (or borderline core) piece for ~3-5+ years.

Toronto trading a 1st + two 4ths for pending UFA Foligno, Florida trading Tippett + 1st for pending UFA Giroux, Winnipeg trading Lemieux + 1st + 4th for pending UFA K. Hayes, etc on the other hand I don't like at all. You're generally paying more, only getting the player for one playoff run, and not even necessarily getting a better player than had you targeted a younger guy with term. These can be find if you have an extension lined up already (e.g. when Vegas obtained Stone), but that seems to be the exception, not the rule, and this team has zero capspace for extensions like that anyway.

The NHL isn't the NBA where a single addition can make it almost guaranteed that you'll go to the Finals. Success in the NHL I think depends a lot more on maintaining a long-term window of contention, rather than going "all in" on a single year or two. So if for example we're trading Sandin in a package, I certainly hope it's for a ~22-23 year old forward, and not for Miller.

 

[Stephen]

Hockey is luckiest major North American sport: Researchers

In the opening game of the second-round series between the Chicago Blackhawks and the Minnesota Wild last May, the teams were tied 3-3 through almost two periods at…

torontosun.com

Don't expect you to read it, but hockey is a lot less predictable than every other major sport, this should be obvious to anyone who watches the game. There is a lot of luck involved in hockey.

At the deadline if we spend all our futures on Miller + Huberdeau, no one on paper even comes close to us... but I bet it is still most likely we don't win the cup.

The idea of “luck” is nothing new. Ten years ago people referred to it as intangibles, which was then a human compete factor that couldn’t quite be quantified.

Now the intellectual model seems to be based on a statistical probability model, so it’s been rebranded as randomness.

So the question is basically, do you factor in “intangibles” into roster construction based on good old fashioned hockey and team building concepts, or do you throw it all out because you can’t figure out luck or goaltending?

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

There's some nice players but Reilly is a glorified 2nd pair damn. The Leafs need to identify a core of guys that will be skate through walls for them. Keefe hasn't challenged them enough.

It's the quality of the drafted players and keeping the right ones that matters not the quantity.

I assume you are a Sabres fan just based off your name, so tell m what would you know about good drafting. Olofsson aside your team hasn't drafted and developed shit outside the top 2 since 2012.

That's a decade ONE guy That wasn't a top 2 pick in a decade

 

[Buffaloed]

I assume you are a Sabres fan just based off your name, so tell m what would you know about good drafting. Olofsson aside your team hasn't drafted and developed shit outside the top 2 since 2012.

That's a decade ONE guy That wasn't a top 2 pick in a decade

More to the point, I know about bad drafting. lol

 

[Buffaloed]

More to the point, I know about bad drafting. lol. Btw the issue with the Leafs isn't drafting. They do that well. The issue is assett management.

 

[Confucius]

How much more all in can we go? Spending over the cap with world class accounting by the Cap creator. Trading away 1st round picks. Management can’t go anymore all in. Lol!

 

[The Iceman]

You mean go ALL IN like Florida did at the deadline....HMMMM
No thanks.

Winning a round is hard. 75% of the teams fail to do this every year.

 

[ShaneFalco]

You mean go ALL IN like Florida did at the deadline....HMMMM
No thanks.

Winning a round is hard. 75% of the teams fail to do this every year.

And yet some teams do. Despite the odds. Except the Leafs

 

[mydnyte]

I don't see any master plan when I look at Dubas. He's erratic and seems to be bent on acquiring the medias favorite players even if they don't fit. They went for it with Tavares and it really set them back. Colorado should be the Leafs model. Build through the draft. Don't try to force what isn't there.

Colorado's model was suck a bunch of years, and draft poorly, then suck so bad they draft #1 overall (Mackinnon), then totally suck a few random seasons and get lucky enough to draft Makar (48 pts in 2017) and Byram (2019 lucky Ottawa trade)
Duchene was a #3 pick back in 09(start of rebuild), and Landy was a #2 overall pick in 2011, so, you can say it took them 13 years, and tanking a few times, and basically a 2nd rebuild to get it done

 

[Byron Bitz]

Colorado's model was suck a bunch of years, and draft poorly, then suck so bad they draft #1 overall (Mackinnon), then totally suck a few random seasons and get lucky enough to draft Makar (48 pts in 2017) and Byram (2019 lucky Ottawa trade)
Duchene was a #3 pick back in 09(start of rebuild), and Landy was a #2 overall pick in 2011, so, you can say it took them 13 years, and tanking a few times, and basically a 2nd rebuild to get it done

Their model also included fleecing a team for their 2nd line center on a great contract.

 

[Jimmy Firecracker]

Their model also included fleecing a team for their 2nd line center on a great contract.

And fleecing another team for an excellent two-way defenseman.

 

[zeke]

And fleecing another team for an excellent two-way defenseman.

And taking 2 years longer for their 1st overall pick to have any playoffs success.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

we have four very expensive forwards that don't drive their own line.

Agree on chych but you lost me here? matthews marner nylander all drive lines....JT still can if the ingredients are right.