Why a Zach Hyman - Toronto extension, isn't a closed door, and may still even be likely.

[hamzarocks]

The fact your post has no logic makes it nonsense.

Pasta was his comparable

Pasta - 172gp 123p (.715) signed at 8.89%
Nylander - 185gp 135p (.729) signed at 8.76%

Don't let facts get in the way 0f your narrative, but we signed the more productive player for less.

It's easy to make numbers look in your favour when you ignore the length it took both players to make the NHL, their usage during their ELC, their final year of the ELC (the most impactful one in contract negotiations) and the relative level of importance moving forward on the teams roster chart

Pasta was a better player than Nylabder since he got drafted. Better in 2015 in both the NHL and AHL. Nylander not playing a game in 2015 helped his career ppg vs 2014 draft picks. 2015-2016 Pasta was once again better in both the AHL and NHL

2017 the year which Nylander made the NHL he had 61 in 81 while Pasta had 70 in 75

Pasta made the NHL sooner, and was used in a lower role which makes his ppg and production artificially look worse than Nylander's. It's clear when digging deeper who the better and more promising player was moving forward

Pasta in 2017 was the Bruins #1 piece for the future while Nylander in his negotiation in 2018 was at best 3rd

Nylander should've gotten 6.25M x 7 giving him a slight pay raise from Ehlers who was and continues to be his closest comparable

 

[mydnyte]

So you're going to use worse contracts to make Nylander's look better? Don't see the problem with that approach huh?

well, you cant use better contracts can you?

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

Tanking for for high end talent only to lose it for pennies on the dollar seems like a bad idea. 3 poison pill offer sheets and you're left with a handful of mid-late firsts or disgruntled stars with bloated QOs coming up in 2-4 years. I don't trust Lou to use those picks or cap space effectively based on his track record with us.

So Lou didn't sign Hyman, Reilly, Brown and Kadri to good deals for us? I can admit he did some stupid things...and I can admit Dubas did some good things...but you can't tell me Lou wouldn't have fared better with the three amigos...sorry I just can't go that far.

 

[Martin Skoula]

So Lou didn't sign Hyman, Reilly, Brown and Kadri to good deals for us? I can admit he did some stupid things...and I can admit Dubas did some good things...but you can't tell me Lou wouldn't have fared better with the three amigos...sorry I just can't go that far.

Explain to me how those deals are anything but market value for RFAs with mediocre track records up to that point. Hyman with a career high of 10 goals and 28 points was supposed to get paid significantly more than 2.25x4 but Lou knocked him down?

I don't see Lou getting the big 3 for significantly less than they got, he would have traded Nylander or Marner from a position of weakness or exposed them to poison pill offer sheets long enough that they would have signed one. He's not using the power of persuasion to convince their agents to take a 20% haircut for no reason other than to be in his good books. He showed no signs of using cap space to contribute to us becoming more of a contender, taking less money so Lou can sign another Marleau is not an appealing proposition even if they care about winning 100x more than money. Getting Marner and Nylander on 3x7/3x5.5 bridge deals with a QO of 10 and 9 million (like his NYI RFAs) at the end is only good if you can win a cup in those 3 years, none of Lou's trades or signings tell me that he would have been able to pull it off in that window. He had 2 full years to fix the defense and did nothing but sign Zaitsev to an albatross.

 

[Gallagbi]

So Lou didn't sign Hyman, Reilly, Brown and Kadri to good deals for us? I can admit he did some stupid things...and I can admit Dubas did some good things...but you can't tell me Lou wouldn't have fared better with the three amigos...sorry I just can't go that far.

I don't know if Lou's ever handled comparable RFAs. Parise and Barzal are likely the closest. Both bridged on 3-year deals, Parise went to arb then walked as a UFA the following season. I believe Barzal would have 1 year with arb rights before UFA after this deal with an 8.4m qualifier.

I expect Lou would have went shorter and cheaper than Dubas from what we've seen for our big 3. More risk that route, less cost certainty, but a cheaper 3 year window. Would have been interesting if that was the route for all 3 actually, especially with Lous record on UFAs.

 

[usernamezrhardtodo]

I don't know if Lou's ever handled comparable RFAs. Parise and Barzal are likely the closest. Both bridged on 3-year deals, Parise went to arb then walked as a UFA the following season. I believe Barzal would have 1 year with arb rights before UFA after this deal w. AN 8.4m qualifier.

I expect Lou would have went shorter and cheaper than Dubas from what we've seen for our big 3. More risk that route, less cost certainty, but a cheaper 3 year window. Would have been interesting if that was the route for all 3 actually, especially with Lous record on UFAs.

He more than likely would have gone shorter on a couple of them but at the same time that is not the worst thing in the world to do.

For some reason people seem to think that just because we feel Lou would have done better with the RFA's that he would have the leafs in a great position. That we don't know for sure because he did some doozy's (Zaitsev) along the way.

I didn't like that Shanny tapped him to be the GM in the first place. I would have preferred someone else to be honest. But in comparison to the mess we have now without any real hope for the future...I think we would have been better off with Lou than Dubas. At least for a few more years.

I think there was a real conflict between what Lou thought a team should be and what Shanny thought it should be and now we have Dubas. As I said before about Shanny...he seems to be embarrassed by the type of player he was and doesn't value that aspect. It shows in many ways. I actually think Dubas values tougher players more than Shanahan does...which is pretty nutso TBH.

 

[Gallagbi]

He more than likely would have gone shorter on a couple of them but at the same time that is not the worst thing in the world to do.

For some reason people seem to think that just because we feel Lou would have done better with the RFA's that he would have the leafs in a great position. That we don't know for sure because he did some doozy's (Zaitsev) along the way.

I didn't like that Shanny tapped him to be the GM in the first place. I would have preferred someone else to be honest. But in comparison to the mess we have now without any real hope for the future...I think we would have been better off with Lou than Dubas. At least for a few more years.

I think there was a real conflict between what Lou thought a team should be and what Shanny thought it should be and now we have Dubas. As I said before about Shanny...he seems to be embarrassed by the type of player he was and doesn't value that aspect. It shows in many ways. I actually think Dubas values tougher players more than Shanahan does...which is pretty nutso TBH.

I think there's a lot I simply don't know enough to comment on about the toughness and shanny piece, but my general reads on deals are

Dubas used some historical contracts to set his rates. I think they're largely outdated and the model moved to longer term deals. I'm fine with Nylander, can live with Matthews, my issue is Marner.

Lou gambled short with his RFAs, which was cheaper and riskier. He didn't project cap well though, and he tended to lose his big UFAs. He lost Niedermayer while offering a max aav deal (only one I'm aware of), lost Parise and would have lost Kovi if not for ownership. Not sure there was another high end UFA he had.

In NYI he's spent 2 years in cap trouble with a roster lacking top-end talent. They've outperformed expectations and he should be commended, but it's a much different model than he built here and the cap issues there are similar to what Dubas inherited.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don't know if Lou's ever handled comparable RFAs. Parise and Barzal are likely the closest. Both bridged on 3-year deals, Parise went to arb then walked as a UFA the following season. I believe Barzal would have 1 year with arb rights before UFA after this deal w. AN 8.4m qualifier.

I expect Lou would have went shorter and cheaper than Dubas from what we've seen for our big 3. More risk that route, less cost certainty, but a cheaper 3 year window. Would have been interesting if that was the route for all 3 actually, especially with Lous record on UFAs.

Pre-cap, but Brodeur, Niedermayer, Elias, Guerin, Gomez etc. were some pretty high profile RFAs.

 

[Gallagbi]

Pre-cap, but Brodeur, Niedermayer, Elias, Guerin, Gomez etc. were some pretty high profile RFAs.

Yeah, I am pretty much ignoring pre cap given cap space and allocation is the question.

Given the ELC differences, UFA age cap now, I just don't see it being comparable

 

[francis246]

Yup... thats a great strategy.... become more top heavy; invest more in forwards and have more crunch on quality depth because this team has proven stars who can put the team on their back and get a lot out of bargain bin players.. right?

50% on 4 forwards is just not good enough; we gotta invest more heavily in teh forward group by adding one more forward at 7 million. who cares about quality depth?

sounds like the leafs are planning to sign him. Landeskog lives in Ontario during the off season..

obviously just speculation at this point but if they move Kerfoot I can see them signing Landeskog for 6 million and rebuilding the bottom six completely

Hyman to test waters, Landeskog on Leafs radar — The Fourth Period

 

[francis246]

I am tired of the constant lookout for 'Name' players that we have to over pay for. How about we start drafting and finding some no-name players that turn into Name players?

Like you said...50% on 4 is not enough...we need Dougie Hamilton and need to sign Hyman because someone else might get that guy...its comical.

our defense is fine. They proved that this season when healthy. Our problem is we need a top line LW. Landeskog is a better player than hyman. He brings grit but he also can produce a fair more offensively.

 

[hotpaws]

sounds like the leafs are planning to sign him. Landeskog lives in Ontario during the off season..

obviously just speculation at this point but if they move Kerfoot I can see them signing Landeskog for 6 million and rebuilding the bottom six completely

Hyman to test waters, Landeskog on Leafs radar — The Fourth Period

if Landeskog was willing to sign for 6m the Avs would have already signed him

 

[Smif]

While I agree that Lou has made some bad deals...I also think there is no way he caves to 3 kids like Dubas did. He might over-pay someone getting to UFA but I really have a hard time thinking he would give in to Marner and Nylander.

My question to you is this: If RFA's have so much leverage against the team...why aren't all the GM's paying out Dubas Money (TM)?

Most GM'a opted for shorter term deals like Barzal and Point. These boys are gonna be right up there with Mitch in a couple years and the deal will take them right into their mid-30's. Personally, I like the 3yr then 8yr deals (McDavid & Eichel) more than the 3yr, 3yr than 8yr deals. You have the player for 11 years rather than 14 years which is too long.

 

[francis246]

if Landeskog was willing to sign for 6m the Avs would have already signed him

We have no idea what the avs offered, the numbers haven’t come out. And I know Matthews and Marner and Nylander didn’t take less but that doesn’t mean that other players wouldn’t to come here and play with Matthews and Marner. We’ll have to wait and see.

It sounds like Landeskog wasn’t even getting an offer close to 6, he got lowballed which means he probably didn’t even get offered much higher than his current AAV at 4.5. I assume Colorado was probably trying to get him at 5.5 over 8 or 5 over 8.

 

[hotpaws]

We have no idea what the avs offered, the numbers haven’t come out. And I know Matthews and Marner and Nylander didn’t take less but that doesn’t mean that other players wouldn’t to come here and play with Matthews and Marner. We’ll have to wait and see.

It sounds like Landeskog wasn’t even getting an offer close to 6, he got lowballed which means he probably didn’t even get offered much higher than his current AAV at 4.5. I assume Colorado was probably trying to get him at 5.5 over 8 or 5 over 8.

of course the numbers haven't come out , the Toronto based insiders are to busy inventing fairy tales how teams are lining up to give Hey-Man 6m x 7yrs , lol

most of your post is just a lot of wishful thinking and skimming through the Avs board a few are saying it was reported he'd be seeking 9=10m on the as a ufa but was willing to take less to go back to the Avs

 

[francis246]

of course the numbers haven't come out , the Toronto based insiders are to busy inventing fairy tales how teams are lining up to give Hey-Man 6m x 7yrs , lol

most of your post is just a lot of wishful thinking and skimming through the Avs board a few are saying it was reported he'd be seeking 9=10m on the as a ufa but was willing to take less to go back to the Avs

i haven't skimmed the avs board at all... I only base my information on Insiders, radio hits and television hits, along with articles from athletic and other credible sources.

 

[hotpaws]

i haven't skimmed the avs board at all... I only base my information on Insiders, radio hits and television hits, along with articles from athletic and other credible sources.

there board was saying Strickland threw that number out

anyway i highly doubt if he was going to sign for 6m he'd do it with us instead of the Avs

 

[Leafs87]

It was nice having him, but no way he’s be viewed the same at 4+. Lots of questions would start coming up. Abdelkader is his best comparable who played well with Detroit’s stars and got a disgusting overpayment. The scariest part would be if Matthew’s dips in 3 years and we’re stuck with Hyman for another 4-5 after. Which is exactly what happened to Detroit

 

[sittler rules!!!]

Based on reports, Zach Hyman is likely looking at a 6 year deal, somewhere in the 5.5M range. James Mirtle on the Leaf report says Hyman won't get 6, but it'll be more than 5, and likely around 5.5, so for simplicity, let us use that 5.5M number.
5.5M x 6 years is a total of 33 million.

Now we know Zach Hyman's history. He's from the GTA, he pretty much forced his way to the Leafs after he was done college, and I believe it was mentioned that he has a newborn, or his wife is pregnant, not sure which.

So, Zach Hyman, who recently turned 29 years of age, on a 6 would deal, would take him until he was 35 years of age. A player like Hyman, by the time he's that age, will likely be in the Wayne Simmonds territory of taking 1M or less deals.
Who cares!!! If that core comes back, it will be same old. 3 x 11 don't work.
Get rid of Money Mitch. Maybe try to fleece Sakic by offering rights to Hyman and Money Mitch for getting Naz back and rights to Landeskog

So in the case of Zach Hyman and the Toronto Maple Leafs, who both want to keep the business relationship going, there is a route for an extension.

It doesn't even take a hometown discount for Zach Hyman to get it done either. Let's take that previously speculated 6 years at 5.5M for a total of 33 million, and let's do what no other team in the league is able to do, and tag on an extra 2 seasons, at a value of 1.5M per season.

That brings us to a total of 8 years, and 36 million. The deal would be the typical structure of being front loaded, and heavy bonuses at the beginning. This does 2 things.

1. Bonuses don't get tied up in Escrow, so it puts more money into Hyman's pocket.
2. It makes the contract trade friendly, if needed, at the tail end of the contract
3. If Hyman makes it through the 6 years, the Leafs could buy out the final 2 years, at minimum penalty, due to the structuring of the contract.

For Hyman? He gets his 33 million - 6 year contract, from the Leafs. Gets a favorable structure in terms of signing bonuses. He also gets a guaranteed extra 3M from the Leafs in a spot of his career where he may not be guaranteed that. No hometown discount. No leaving money on the table.

For the Leafs? You get Zach Hyman, who has been the heart of the team for quite a while, at a very workable AAV of 4.5M per season. You protect yourself by making the back end of the deal easily tradable or buy out able. Which is important for a player like Hyman.

Now, if Zach Hyman wanted to give the Leafs a tiny discount, and let's say do the 33 million over 8 years, that would be an AAV of 4.125M. 31 million? 3.875M. 30 million? 3.75M

 

[egd27]

He didn't need to put anyone on his back.

He finds the open net in Game 7 and were tied in a new game with fans in the stands. Hell, expand that to the other point blank chances he had that game.

Just like you can't put it all on him, you also can't overlook the fact he underperformed.

I'm not arguing he unperformed, I'm suggesting that you'd expect Hyman would get maybe 2 goals instead of 1 in a seven game series. To me that's a small miss.
M&M combining for 1 goal in a 7 game series? Entirely different level of failure.

Never should have gotten to the Game 7 scenario you mention.

 

[egd27]

bahahaha, one of the best English errors Ive read on here. This one made me legitimately laugh out loud.

My other favourite is when a player is described as a pre-Madonna.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Explain to me how those deals are anything but market value for RFAs with mediocre track records up to that point. Hyman with a career high of 10 goals and 28 points was supposed to get paid significantly more than 2.25x4 but Lou knocked him down?

I don't see Lou getting the big 3 for significantly less than they got, he would have traded Nylander or Marner from a position of weakness or exposed them to poison pill offer sheets long enough that they would have signed one. He's not using the power of persuasion to convince their agents to take a 20% haircut for no reason other than to be in his good books. He showed no signs of using cap space to contribute to us becoming more of a contender, taking less money so Lou can sign another Marleau is not an appealing proposition even if they care about winning 100x more than money. Getting Marner and Nylander on 3x7/3x5.5 bridge deals with a QO of 10 and 9 million (like his NYI RFAs) at the end is only good if you can win a cup in those 3 years, none of Lou's trades or signings tell me that he would have been able to pull it off in that window. He had 2 full years to fix the defense and did nothing but sign Zaitsev to an albatross.

The last successful offer sheet I believe was Dustin Penner in 2007. They’re not as big of the threat as people think. GMs don’t want to give up tons of cap space and picks. Matthews probably gets one that’s why we signed him early

With Marner I’d almost argue we were better off letting him sign an offer sheet. It’s probably less than his current deal and we match OR it’s as much as it is now and we take 4 1sts

Marner went the entire summer right up to camp and no offer sheet was signed

 

[Mess]

i haven't skimmed the avs board at all... I only base my information on Insiders, radio hits and television hits, along with articles from athletic and other credible sources.

I don't see this as a Zach Hyman replacement option for a team that is already having cap issues just to retain Hyman himself.

 

[hockeywiz542]

LeBrun: Thumbs up for Devils trade, latest on Zach Hyman and Gabriel Landeskog - The Athletic

• My TSN colleague Darren Dreger reported Thursday that Zach Hyman’s camp, led by agent Todd Reynolds, has the Leafs’ blessing to talk directly to teams now instead of waiting for July 28. Given what I reported the previous day as far as the sizeable gap in positions between the Leafs and Hyman’s camp, this makes sense. Toronto’s front office might as well get a clearer read on what exactly Hyman can fetch on the open market. One thing to keep in mind, only the Leafs can give Hyman eight years in term (well, other than Seattle if Hyman was left unprotected in the expansion draft). So let’s say a team offers Hyman six years at a $5.75 M AAV, that’s $34.5 million in total. The Leafs, if they chose to, could counter with eight years at $4.75 million AAV for a $38 million total. It’s still more money overall in Hyman’s real-life bank account. How much more money would a 35-year-old Hyman fetch on the open market in July 2027? Food for thought. Although it does have that feeling of Hyman likely being gone from the Leafs.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I would be willing to go 6×4.75 if the sixth year is buyout friendly. 8×4.75 is beyond the pale.