Who would Detroit take at 4?

[GettingYourMoms]

I said it once and i´m gonna say it again, Raymond will be best player in this draft after Lafreniere. His ceiling and puck skills are insane, he looks like frcking magician.

 

[lomekian]

I would certainly oppose trading Mantha for a pick, unless we're talking a top 2 pick. Literally the only knocks on him are his freak injuries and inconsistent intensity. Talent wise, he's our best player. A monster play driver who is 6"5 and has an elite shot. He's been on pace for 30+ goals and 60+ points for the last two years while being massively derailed by injuries and on the worst team in the NHL by a distance, despite sometimes having to play with fill-in 2nd liners and with no D core creativity beyond Hronek.

His skillset means he should age pretty well too. Guys his size, with that shot, who move economically tend to last pretty well unless they get very specific injuries, so should still be a serious goal threat for some years.

You don't trade a guy like that away unless you are getting a sure fire high end 1st liner forward in return. If I'm not getting top 2 in this draft, I'm not biting. Its not like we need to sell players to tank!

 

[Oddbob]

If we do end up at 4, I kinda hope we trade down a few spots and pick up either another 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder or other already drafted good prospect. Once you get past the top 2-3 guys the next group of 5-7 guys are all roughly equal depending on whatever teams needs are. Also if we end up 4, my thoughts are we will have missed getting that franchise player we desperately need. Another Zadina level player is fine and all, but after the last 2 seasons and this one in particular that just isn't enough to make it exciting or worthwhile!

 

[lilidk]

I would certainly oppose trading Mantha for a pick, unless we're talking a top 2 pick. Literally the only knocks on him are his freak injuries and inconsistent intensity. Talent wise, he's our best player. A monster play driver who is 6"5 and has an elite shot. He's been on pace for 30+ goals and 60+ points for the last two years while being massively derailed by injuries and on the worst team in the NHL by a distance, despite sometimes having to play with fill-in 2nd liners and with no D core creativity beyond Hronek.

His skillset means he should age pretty well too. Guys his size, with that shot, who move economically tend to last pretty well unless they get very specific injuries, so should still be a serious goal threat for some years.

You don't trade a guy like that away unless you are getting a sure fire high end 1st liner forward in return. If I'm not getting top 2 in this draft, I'm not biting. Its not like we need to sell players to tank!

I disagree with you about Mantha. If we get for example Lafreniere ,NHL ready, I d slide him with Mantha and Larkin. This team become much better instantly. If we get , for example , Raymond or Rossi, this team will take much longer time to become cup contender. That situation , could make sense to trade Mantha, but only in Yzerman conditions.

 

[Frk It]

Drysdale isn't the clear BPA though
He's been surpassed by Sanderson on several rankings.

Circling back on this to share something with you, because I was mistaken here. I listened to a podcast with the folks from hockeyprospect.com, and @Mark Edwards said that among the scouts he has spoken to, just as many have Sanderson over Drysdale as vice versa.

So you were onto something. I just have a hard time looking at all the scouting services as equal, because in my opinion there is a broad range of how amateur/professional they are.

 

[lilidk]

If we do end up at 4, I kinda hope we trade down a few spots and pick up either another 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder or other already drafted good prospect. Once you get past the top 2-3 guys the next group of 5-7 guys are all roughly equal depending on whatever teams needs are. Also if we end up 4, my thoughts are we will have missed getting that franchise player we desperately need. Another Zadina level player is fine and all, but after the last 2 seasons and this one in particular that just isn't enough to make it exciting or worthwhile!

Last year Yzerman could not do it. This year will be even harder, much harder

 

[lilidk]

I predict we get LW with our first pick,Lafreniere,Stutzle or Raymond. Early second LD , Andrae possible. Late second must be center .

 

[lilidk]

I said it once and i´m gonna say it again, Raymond will be best player in this draft after Lafreniere. His ceiling and puck skills are insane, he looks like frcking magician.

Very possible

 

[Flyer lurker]

favorite raymond in this scenario.

Depending upon who pick 5 6 7 trading down 2-3 spots and picking Askarov isn't crazy.

 

[Retire91]

enjoying this thread a lot

The thing I like about Askarov is that in my life time the red wings have never had a franchise goalie. I don't count Osgood as soon as you take the stacked team away he is just a good (arguably great but not franchise) goalie. If Osgood never leaves the wings he is at best Corey Crawford level. To me Hasek doesn't count either because he was not in his prime and he was just a rental. He fell into the same category of good enough goal tending behind a HOF team while he was here.

It would be incredible to for once have the kind of goalie that can actually steal a game and take a well built but under powered team team deep.

I would just be on pins and needles for like 4 years worrying about a bust. Its so common for 18 year old goalies to look like world beaters and never reach that level of NHL potential.

I would be willing to bet Yzerman and staff are thinking about it long and hard so I don't think the thread is off the mark taking a long look at him even at 4.

Goalies might be inconsistent but with a great goalie year after year you roll the dice on their career year happening and it's not uncommon for goalies people burn at the stake for inconsistency pull together some great seasons after people write them off. You have to have a goalie with talent to sniff that level of performance, so to heck with inconstancy I don't think that is a reason to overlook goal tending.

I wish the wings would have picked up Lehner when they had the chance and called it a day though I still think a forward is more badly needed at the top end of the draft.

 

[MBH]

Circling back on this to share something with you, because I was mistaken here. I listened to a podcast with the folks from hockeyprospect.com, and @Mark Edwards said that among the scouts he has spoken to, just as many have Sanderson over Drysdale as vice versa.

So you were onto something. I just have a hard time looking at all the scouting services as equal, because in my opinion there is a broad range of how amateur/professional they are.

Drysdale is, without a doubt, someone who first the recent model - Hughes, Makar - though I don't believe he's as other-worldly in the skill department..

Sanderson may be in that other new model - the Slavin model.

 

[MBH]

If we do end up at 4, I kinda hope we trade down a few spots and pick up either another 1st rounder/early 2nd rounder or other already drafted good prospect. Once you get past the top 2-3 guys the next group of 5-7 guys are all roughly equal depending on whatever teams needs are. Also if we end up 4, my thoughts are we will have missed getting that franchise player we desperately need. Another Zadina level player is fine and all, but after the last 2 seasons and this one in particular that just isn't enough to make it exciting or worthwhile!

What about our needs, though?
At 4, we'll have our choice of filling needs:
LD: Sanderson
G: Askarov
C: Rossi
Or, if you have someone better - you take him.
If you trade down to 8, maybe now the only good option you have is Lundell or taking a winger.

 

[Frk It]

Drysdale is, without a doubt, someone who first the recent model - Hughes, Makar - though I don't believe he's as other-worldly in the skill department..

Sanderson may be in that other new model - the Slavin model.

Letang would be the type of guy I think Drysdale could model after if he keeps on his trajectory.

If you take Sanderson, I think you are hoping for a Chabot/Heiskanen/Slavin type of guy.

This is an interesting draft because you have a mix of older birthdate guys and younger birthdate guys. I like guys like Raymond and Sanderson, because I think they have a ton of room for growth from where they are now. But it also scares me a bit because you have a wider range of outcomes with that as well.

 

[MBH]

I would certainly oppose trading Mantha for a pick, unless we're talking a top 2 pick. Literally the only knocks on him are his freak injuries and inconsistent intensity. Talent wise, he's our best player. A monster play driver who is 6"5 and has an elite shot. He's been on pace for 30+ goals and 60+ points for the last two years while being massively derailed by injuries and on the worst team in the NHL by a distance, despite sometimes having to play with fill-in 2nd liners and with no D core creativity beyond Hronek.

His skillset means he should age pretty well too. Guys his size, with that shot, who move economically tend to last pretty well unless they get very specific injuries, so should still be a serious goal threat for some years.

You don't trade a guy like that away unless you are getting a sure fire high end 1st liner forward in return. If I'm not getting top 2 in this draft, I'm not biting. Its not like we need to sell players to tank!

Mantha will be 26 in September.

We traded Tatar, who accomplished more than Mantha and was signed tp a team-friendly deal, for a late first and a second and third.

If you could get Montreal's first - in the top 10? I take that all day.

Mantha is about to get paid. And if he doesn't, he won't be here long and we could see him as a UFA.

I have no doubt that Mantha could very well be worth his contract, if he's healthy, for 2-3 years.
But I wonder about his ability to keep producing at 29-30-31.

Do we end up with Jeff Skinner 2.0?
Skinner, at least, had 4 30-goal seasons in his back pocket when he signed that monstrosity.
Mantha hasn't topped 25 goals yet.

Another comparison here, to some degree, is Todd Bertuzzi, because of their style.

Bertuzzi, 24: 25-25-50
Bertuzzi, 25: 25-30-55
---Mantha's New Contract Starts Here--
Bertuzzi, 26: 36-49-85 <-- Mantha's production last year
Bertuzzi, 27: 46-51-97
Bertuzzi, 28: 17-43-60
Bertuzzi, 29: 25-46-71
Bertuzzi, 30: 3-8-11
Bertuzzi, 31: 14-26-40
Bertuzzi, 32: 15-20-44
Bertuzzi, 33: 18-26-44

Granted, Bertuzzi had other issues that might have impacted his ability to focus. But the slippage had already started before that incident.

Other giant forwards (230 pounds or more)
Lucic - considered a toxic contract by 29.
Ovechkin - still scoring like a mofo, but his points have fallen off
Lee - Hit 30 at 26, 40 at 27, fell back to 28 and now 20

So if Mantha gets $8 to $9M on a 7-8 year contract, is that OK?
I take the first and let someone else make that call.
Because in the next 4-5 years, when you're making huge decisions on contracts for Larkin and Seider and Zadina and whoever we draft this year and next, you don't want an untradeable 20-goal goal winger eating so much cap space.

It's been speculated in the French Canadien media Mantha would make an attractive RFA target for Bergevin. Why not see what Montreal would offer in a trade before the draft?
Picks owned by Montreal this year: 1 first, 3 seconds,, 2 3rds, 3 4ths, 2 5ths, a 6th, 2 7ths.

 

[Dotter]

Wings have no goalies in the system that will ever amount to helping this team win a Stanley Cup. If Yzerman drafts Yaroslav Askarov, Wings could have a potential Vezina winning goalie on a Carey Price level tied up for the next 15 to 20 years sealing the goal position til 2036/41.

Re-sign Howard, tank and get another top 3 or 4 pick next season and continue another year or two in the rebuild and start gearing up for a competitive 2022/23 season. Wings could be legit top perennial cup contenders by 2027 by the time Larkin is 29/30 yrs old.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Mantha will be 26 in September.

We traded Tatar, who accomplished more than Mantha and was signed tp a team-friendly deal, for a late first and a second and third.

If you could get Montreal's first - in the top 10? I take that all day.

Mantha is about to get paid. And if he doesn't, he won't be here long and we could see him as a UFA.

I have no doubt that Mantha could very well be worth his contract, if he's healthy, for 2-3 years.
But I wonder about his ability to keep producing at 29-30-31.

Do we end up with Jeff Skinner 2.0?
Skinner, at least, had 4 30-goal seasons in his back pocket when he signed that monstrosity.
Mantha hasn't topped 25 goals yet.

Another comparison here, to some degree, is Todd Bertuzzi, because of their style.

Bertuzzi, 24: 25-25-50
Bertuzzi, 25: 25-30-55
---Mantha's New Contract Starts Here--
Bertuzzi, 26: 36-49-85 <-- Mantha's production last year
Bertuzzi, 27: 46-51-97
Bertuzzi, 28: 17-43-60
Bertuzzi, 29: 25-46-71
Bertuzzi, 30: 3-8-11
Bertuzzi, 31: 14-26-40
Bertuzzi, 32: 15-20-44
Bertuzzi, 33: 18-26-44

Granted, Bertuzzi had other issues that might have impacted his ability to focus. But the slippage had already started before that incident.

Other giant forwards (230 pounds or more)
Lucic - considered a toxic contract by 29.
Ovechkin - still scoring like a mofo, but his points have fallen off
Lee - Hit 30 at 26, 40 at 27, fell back to 28 and now 20

So if Mantha gets $8 to $9M on a 7-8 year contract, is that OK?
I take the first and let someone else make that call.
Because in the next 4-5 years, when you're making huge decisions on contracts for Larkin and Seider and Zadina and whoever we draft this year and next, you don't want an untradeable 20-goal goal winger eating so much cap space.

It's been speculated in the French Canadien media Mantha would make an attractive RFA target for Bergevin. Why not see what Montreal would offer in a trade before the draft?
Picks owned by Montreal this year: 1 first, 3 seconds,, 2 3rds, 3 4ths, 2 5ths, a 6th, 2 7ths.

Mantha is a better player than Tatar.
Mantha doesn't have the leverage to pull 8-9M a year. If he gets to where he does... your worries about "will he have a solid track record" disappear.

Milan Lucic was a knuckledragger who scored 20 goals a year. He routinely put out over 200 hits per year. Basically in his year 25-30 seasons, he averaged 243 hits per year. The amount of hits Mantha has thrown in his entire career is 257. Lucic is an awful comparison to point to when talking about Mantha. Mantha is ludicrously more skilled. Milan Lucic had a playstyle that anyone with eyes could tell was going to nosedive off a cliff. He's a toxic contract because Edmonton was stupid enough to give him long term and money just like Detroit was stupid enough to give that to Abby.

Also, in relation to Ovechkin... the hell are you talking about his points falling off? 18-19 was his highest PPG since he was 27. He scored at 0.99 PPG this shortened season.

Anders Lee, maybe the best comp, had his best numbers when John Tavares was on the Island and Doug Weight played him with Josh Bailey. Bailey had some crazy high percentage of his assists happening on Lee's goals. Trotz separated the two ignoring the chemistry (perhaps to try to counteract the loss of firepower from past years with Tavares going to Toronto a couple years ago) that they had. Or trying to balance out the lines. Remember in Detroit when the Eurotwins played together and their line was unstoppable but Babcock kept splitting them up to try to have two great lines instead of one? But no, let's ignore all that... it's just because Lee is a big guy that he slowed down and because all big guys are the same Mantha will slow down too.

Anthony Mantha is a potential monster. He's scored at the same pace as Johan Franzen did when he was in Detroit... with an infinitely worse supporting cast. Mantha is not the type of player that you cheap out on and "let some other team make the mistake". He is a bull in a china shop with soft hands. He's not a masher and once the coaches get it through his head to just use his bulk to force scoring chances instead of trying to literally throw his weight around in ill-conceived fights, you'll see him take the next jump up. I go to Mantha right now 8 yr, 50M. If he wants to play hardball, go up to 8/56. He doesn't have the leverage to go any higher than that.

 

[MBH]

Mantha is a better player than Tatar.
Mantha doesn't have the leverage to pull 8-9M a year. If he gets to where he does... your worries about "will he have a solid track record" disappear.

Milan Lucic was a knuckledragger who scored 20 goals a year. He routinely put out over 200 hits per year. Basically in his year 25-30 seasons, he averaged 243 hits per year. The amount of hits Mantha has thrown in his entire career is 257. Lucic is an awful comparison to point to when talking about Mantha. Mantha is ludicrously more skilled. Milan Lucic had a playstyle that anyone with eyes could tell was going to nosedive off a cliff. He's a toxic contract because Edmonton was stupid enough to give him long term and money just like Detroit was stupid enough to give that to Abby.

Also, in relation to Ovechkin... the hell are you talking about his points falling off? 18-19 was his highest PPG since he was 27. He scored at 0.99 PPG this shortened season.

Anders Lee, maybe the best comp, had his best numbers when John Tavares was on the Island and Doug Weight played him with Josh Bailey. Bailey had some crazy high percentage of his assists happening on Lee's goals. Trotz separated the two ignoring the chemistry (perhaps to try to counteract the loss of firepower from past years with Tavares going to Toronto a couple years ago) that they had. Or trying to balance out the lines. Remember in Detroit when the Eurotwins played together and their line was unstoppable but Babcock kept splitting them up to try to have two great lines instead of one? But no, let's ignore all that... it's just because Lee is a big guy that he slowed down and because all big guys are the same Mantha will slow down too.

Anthony Mantha is a potential monster. He's scored at the same pace as Johan Franzen did when he was in Detroit... with an infinitely worse supporting cast. Mantha is not the type of player that you cheap out on and "let some other team make the mistake". He is a bull in a china shop with soft hands. He's not a masher and once the coaches get it through his head to just use his bulk to force scoring chances instead of trying to literally throw his weight around in ill-conceived fights, you'll see him take the next jump up. I go to Mantha right now 8 yr, 50M. If he wants to play hardball, go up to 8/56. He doesn't have the leverage to go any higher than that.

Look at the Bertuzzi chart.
After 2 25-25-50 seasons, Bert exploded over PPG.
He did it for 2 years and receded.

Mantha is 25. He just had his best PPG. I think he can beat a PPG for a couple years.

And then he's going to decline. And 230-pounders generally don't decline very well.
Boyle.
Stewart.
Maroon.
Franzen.
Lucic.
Hanzal.
Horton.
Those are the 230-pounders in today's game.

Let's go back 10 years.
Dustin Penner.
Antropov.
Clowe.
Tkachuk.
Anthony Stewart
Todd Bertuzzi.
Ponikarovsky.

I don't see much upside in signing Mantha to a deal that pays him $8M a year until he's 34.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Mantha is a better player than Tatar.
Mantha doesn't have the leverage to pull 8-9M a year. If he gets to where he does... your worries about "will he have a solid track record" disappear.

Milan Lucic was a knuckledragger who scored 20 goals a year. He routinely put out over 200 hits per year. Basically in his year 25-30 seasons, he averaged 243 hits per year. The amount of hits Mantha has thrown in his entire career is 257. Lucic is an awful comparison to point to when talking about Mantha. Mantha is ludicrously more skilled. Milan Lucic had a playstyle that anyone with eyes could tell was going to nosedive off a cliff. He's a toxic contract because Edmonton was stupid enough to give him long term and money just like Detroit was stupid enough to give that to Abby.

Also, in relation to Ovechkin... the hell are you talking about his points falling off? 18-19 was his highest PPG since he was 27. He scored at 0.99 PPG this shortened season.

Anders Lee, maybe the best comp, had his best numbers when John Tavares was on the Island and Doug Weight played him with Josh Bailey. Bailey had some crazy high percentage of his assists happening on Lee's goals. Trotz separated the two ignoring the chemistry (perhaps to try to counteract the loss of firepower from past years with Tavares going to Toronto a couple years ago) that they had. Or trying to balance out the lines. Remember in Detroit when the Eurotwins played together and their line was unstoppable but Babcock kept splitting them up to try to have two great lines instead of one? But no, let's ignore all that... it's just because Lee is a big guy that he slowed down and because all big guys are the same Mantha will slow down too.

Anthony Mantha is a potential monster. He's scored at the same pace as Johan Franzen did when he was in Detroit... with an infinitely worse supporting cast. Mantha is not the type of player that you cheap out on and "let some other team make the mistake". He is a bull in a china shop with soft hands. He's not a masher and once the coaches get it through his head to just use his bulk to force scoring chances instead of trying to literally throw his weight around in ill-conceived fights, you'll see him take the next jump up. I go to Mantha right now 8 yr, 50M. If he wants to play hardball, go up to 8/56. He doesn't have the leverage to go any higher than that.

To build on what you've stated, Mantha is not someone we should just throw away. He's a potential 40 goal, 80 point winger. Before his injury problems this season he was looking to hit 35 goals and 70ish points. He was the best forward on Detroit most nights he was in and healthy. The guy has the potential to be the kind of winger that Corey Perry was in Anaheim before the wheels fell off. He's worth holding onto.

Long term problems, Detroit is 3 years away from a playoff spot. I think the smart move would be to hold onto Mantha for at least 2 of those 3 years and we should consider dealing him then because hopefully it will be for a combination of reasons, such as Zadina busts out for 35+ goals and is due a new contract, a prospect comes up and they're proving to be a 2nd line offensive threat. We can use Mantha as the centerpiece of a trade for a goalie or defenseman or a trade deadline pick in these circumstances without much of a problem. If we trade him now we're looking at another historically bad season, and I don't think the return we'd get from Montreal is their 1st this year. GM Marc Bergevin is dumb, but I don't think he's THAT dumb.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Look at the Bertuzzi chart.
After 2 25-25-50 seasons, Bert exploded over PPG.
He did it for 2 years and receded.

Mantha is 25. He just had his best PPG. I think he can beat a PPG for a couple years.

And then he's going to decline. And 230-pounders generally don't decline very well.
Boyle. 4th LINE PKER
Stewart.
Maroon.
Franzen. CONCUSSIONS
Lucic. STILL CAN'T SKATE
Hanzal.
Horton. CONCUSSIONS
Those are the 230-pounders in today's game.

Let's go back 10 years.
Dustin Penner. COULDN'T SKATE
Antropov.
Clowe. CONCUSSIONS
Tkachuk. MCDONALDS
Anthony Stewart. NO HOCKEY SENSE
Todd Bertuzzi. STEVE MOORE INCIDENT
Ponikarovsky.

I don't see much upside in signing Mantha to a deal that pays him $8M a year until he's 34.

I added what did in the careers of some of the players you listed, my dude. Their size wasn't the problem.

 

[Hen Kolland]

Look at the Bertuzzi chart.
After 2 25-25-50 seasons, Bert exploded over PPG.
He did it for 2 years and receded.

Mantha is 25. He just had his best PPG. I think he can beat a PPG for a couple years.

And then he's going to decline. And 230-pounders generally don't decline very well.
Boyle.
Stewart.
Maroon.
Franzen.
Lucic.
Hanzal.
Horton.
Those are the 230-pounders in today's game.

Let's go back 10 years.
Dustin Penner.
Antropov.
Clowe.
Tkachuk.
Anthony Stewart
Todd Bertuzzi.
Ponikarovsky.

I don't see much upside in signing Mantha to a deal that pays him $8M a year until he's 34.

There’s one problem here. Mantha doesn’t play like the players you are trying to compare him to. It’s like trying to compare LeBron to other 6’9 players in NBA history. He’s a unique animal because of the fact that he’s essentially a point guard playing in a 4’s body.

Why do we have to take Mantha with a grain of salt compared to the power forwards you listed? Because he relies so much more on mobility and soft skills of hockey...not being 6’5 230.

I look at Thornton, Getzlaf, Wheeler. The style of Big Man hockey that wasn’t predicated on beating in skulls. They made their mark by being good hockey players and those skills carrying them deeper into their careers.

 

[HisNoodliness]

I actually think they are pretty close, but favor Drysdale because of how high his offensive potential is.

Sanderson is better defensively for me. He has a better stick, he gaps up better, he plays the body more efficiently and effectively in part because of his size. I can actually say as I dug in on these guys and watched some games and film I could find on them which admittedly is harder to do without prospectshifts.com around anymore (rip) but man do I like Sanderson's game a lot. I can see why he is gaining so much momentum in the scouting community and he is one of the younger guys in the draft in terms of the elite guys. He is still 17 right now. I would put him WHL if we do draft him.

Yeah I can certainly see how Sanderson's size helps him playing the body compared to Drysdale. I honestly haven't watched him enough to straight up disagree that he's better defensively, but it honestly hasn't been my view largely because I feel that Drysdale is generally more involved, and I haven't felt the same way about Sanderson gapping up or using his stick better. I feel they're very similar in these regards. For a guy his size, you have to love the way Sanderson moves, and I totally can understand his climb too, just not past most of the top 10 guys.

Maybe being so young we also can hope he has more developing left to do, I didn't realize he was so young tbh. I still think that Drysdale's overall toolkit and projection is far superior than Sanderson's to me. I can respect your analysis and that maybe I'm underrating Sanderson a little due to less exposure. A few mediocre viewings can color your opinion. I'd still be pretty upset with him at 4.

 

[lomekian]

Mantha will be 26 in September.

We traded Tatar, who accomplished more than Mantha and was signed tp a team-friendly deal, for a late first and a second and third.

If you could get Montreal's first - in the top 10? I take that all day.

Mantha is about to get paid. And if he doesn't, he won't be here long and we could see him as a UFA.

I have no doubt that Mantha could very well be worth his contract, if he's healthy, for 2-3 years.
But I wonder about his ability to keep producing at 29-30-31.

Do we end up with Jeff Skinner 2.0?
Skinner, at least, had 4 30-goal seasons in his back pocket when he signed that monstrosity.
Mantha hasn't topped 25 goals yet.

Another comparison here, to some degree, is Todd Bertuzzi, because of their style.

Bertuzzi, 24: 25-25-50
Bertuzzi, 25: 25-30-55
---Mantha's New Contract Starts Here--
Bertuzzi, 26: 36-49-85 <-- Mantha's production last year
Bertuzzi, 27: 46-51-97
Bertuzzi, 28: 17-43-60
Bertuzzi, 29: 25-46-71
Bertuzzi, 30: 3-8-11
Bertuzzi, 31: 14-26-40
Bertuzzi, 32: 15-20-44
Bertuzzi, 33: 18-26-44

Granted, Bertuzzi had other issues that might have impacted his ability to focus. But the slippage had already started before that incident.

Other giant forwards (230 pounds or more)
Lucic - considered a toxic contract by 29.
Ovechkin - still scoring like a mofo, but his points have fallen off
Lee - Hit 30 at 26, 40 at 27, fell back to 28 and now 20

So if Mantha gets $8 to $9M on a 7-8 year contract, is that OK?
I take the first and let someone else make that call.
Because in the next 4-5 years, when you're making huge decisions on contracts for Larkin and Seider and Zadina and whoever we draft this year and next, you don't want an untradeable 20-goal goal winger eating so much cap space.

It's been speculated in the French Canadien media Mantha would make an attractive RFA target for Bergevin. Why not see what Montreal would offer in a trade before the draft?
Picks owned by Montreal this year: 1 first, 3 seconds,, 2 3rds, 3 4ths, 2 5ths, a 6th, 2 7ths.

Thanks for the thorough response.

It does of course depend on contract negotiations. Of course $9m x 8 years is not a sensible contract demand, and if that is what his agent is holding out for, it changes the picture. But can he realistically make an argument for that kind of salary? I mean good luck to him if anyone wants to give him that, but there are very few teams that would be prepared to do so.

The lack of Skinner's production is exactly why he won't get a sniff of Skinner's salary. While I don't think he'll ever come in at under $6m I also can't see him getting much more than $7m,

Re the comparisons made. Are the others really similar bar body weight?

Bertuzzi was more a prototypical power forward. At his peak he was a beast, but he never had Mantha's shot from distance or passing ability, and wasn't quite as good a skater. And as you say, his play never recovered from what happened. Also carried more weight on a slightly smaller frame. I don't think Mantha will match his best seasons, but I see him having a more varied impact that would give him more longevity.

Lucic? Was very effective at his playstyle for a bit, but has never had anything like Mantha's skillset. Big power forward but I really don't see them as similar players. Sort of a not quite as tough Probert. Also played a game always likely to wear him down.

Anders Lee? His two great goalscoring years always looked like likely outliers, and his effective skillset is much more one dimensional, and much more team-mate reliant. I think Rasmussen is a more apt comparison to Lee in terms of playstyle.

Stylistically Mantha is somewhere between Bertuzzi and Ovi looking at the players you mentioned. Not as 'power forward' as bertuzzi and not as good as Ovi (obviously). I think accordingly, his game is a lot more likely to age well than the likes of Lucic and Anders Lee.

I mean obviously it all depends on what is on offer, but for me it would have to be a high top 10 pick to be worth having the discussion. That's assuming he's reasonable with contract discussions. If its $8m+ to get anything done, then it changes the parameters significantly. That kind of demand would suggest he wants out, and everything he's said and done to date suggests the opposite.

 

[lomekian]

Wings have no goalies in the system that will ever amount to helping this team win a Stanley Cup. If Yzerman drafts Yaroslav Askarov, Wings could have a potential Vezina winning goalie on a Carey Price level tied up for the next 15 to 20 years sealing the goal position til 2036/41.

Re-sign Howard, tank and get another top 3 or 4 pick next season and continue another year or two in the rebuild and start gearing up for a competitive 2022/23 season. Wings could be legit top perennial cup contenders by 2027 by the time Larkin is 29/30 yrs old.

I think that's too definitive a statement. While its not something we should ever rely on, so many goalies don't come into their own until their mid 20s+. If we were picking 10-15 I'd be much happier with Askarov or Knight last year, but you have to be pretty damn certain on a goalie to take them top 4. What do we think of Wallstedt next year?

 

[lomekian]

I added what did in the careers of some of the players you listed, my dude. Their size wasn't the problem.

Actually Antropov wasn't at Mantha level except for that one year and was injured more often than Mantha. Ponikarovsky had 1 very good season, but otherwise was a middle 6 guy at best.

I mean the list you've responded to is just a random collection of big forwards, most of whom aren't really anything like Mantha. And Tkachuk lasted pretty well.

 

[lilidk]

I believe Mantha is comparable to Tod Bertuzzi