Who would Detroit take at 4?

[MBH]

My gut feeling is that Yzerman trades down, picks Sanderson and continues to build the team PATIENTLY like he said multiple times. Back end first, since defenseman takes more time to develop.

Not sure if this is in play, but it's worth considering.
And if you adopt this idea, it also tells me that a lot of the forward pieces we have are going to be expendable (I'm looking at Mantha, in particular).
Let's trade Mantha for that Montreal pick and use our picks to draft Sanders and Askarov.
We'll keep Larkin-Bertuzzi-Zadina around as pieces for the future up front.
We'll spend the next 2-3 years collecting lottery picks and drafting forwards.

5 years from now, our team looks like this:
C: Larkin 28, Veleno 25
LW: Bertuzzi 30, Rasmussen 26, Svech 28
RW: Zadina 25, Smith 27
And whoever we had over the next few drafts.

Our defense
LD: Sanderson 23, Cholowski 27, Johansson 24
RD: Hronek 27, Seider 24, Lindstrom 26

G: Askarov 23

If we add a true #1 center over those next 3 drafts, we're golden down the middle.
And everyone knows it's easier to pick up wingers than centers and D.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

It's kind of been the mantra of the post-cap world.
Crawford deserved the Conn Smythe in 15. He was fairly well paid, no?
Quick was well paid, no?
Jonathan Quick had a pretty high cap hit for Cup #2.

One of these days a star goalie will win back-to-back cups and the new mantra will be, "you need an elite goalie."

I don’t think so. That would be an exception. It’s hard to build a good team when you’re paying a goalie ten million.

 

[Mlotek]

It's kind of been the mantra of the post-cap world.
Crawford deserved the Conn Smythe in 15. He was fairly well paid, no?
Quick was well paid, no?
Jonathan Quick had a pretty high cap hit for Cup #2.

One of these days a star goalie will win back-to-back cups and the new mantra will be, "you need an elite goalie."

Quick 2nd cup
Salary of 7
Caphit of 5.8

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I don’t think so. That would be an exception. It’s hard to build a good team when you’re paying a goalie ten million.

Best team in the NHL are spending:

Boston: 9.75 million on their tandem (also next season)
St. Louis: 8.75 million on their tandem (also next season)
Tampa: 4.8 million on their tandem (going to 10.8 next year)
Colorado: 4.28 million on their tandem (going to 5.33 next year)
Washington: 7.025 million tandem (Holtby is a Free Agent only 925K on the books for next year)

Even when digging in St. Louis will dump Allen, but have to pay Binnington big bucks so that will likely remain at least at that number in two years. Remember the biggest problem for years on a very talented Blues team was believed to be goalie stopping them for years. Tampa isn't going to fall off the map. Colorado's biggest question mark on if they can make a deep run is where? Goalie. Washington is cheaper because of the ELC.

By the way two years in we might be signing a bridge on Askarov and making like Tampa for a few years before the big contract anyway just like Vasy. But you're looking for about 8 million on a tandem, you can load an ELC guy Colorado and Washington have those advantages for their backup. Of course Colorado is likely going to get ousted for their guy. The Blues struck gold we believe but they will have to make a call in two years and it won't be cheap. Rask has been a top paid netminder for several years, Holtby makes a decent chunk of change.

Lundqvist took the Rangers to the Stanley Cup finals during his current deal. Just because Montreal has done a terrible job of building, something we honestly all make jokes about isn't really on Carey Price. They haven't had a passable center for a decade and that isn't down to them paying Price too much, it is because GMMB isn't very good at his job. Luongo, Quick and Crawford all made the finals while being paid well.

What you cannot afford to do is pay a Martin Jones like that, I agree there. But you might not be paying Askarov big money until the middle of the decade, heck even later if you do the big lock in when he is 25 or 26 like Vasy, that is 7 years off, if you cannot build a team around a vezina trophy caliber goalie and find a tandem solution to carry an elite talent than you're not a very good GM. Having expensive goalies hasn't slowed down Boston at all for the past decade.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Quick 2nd cup
Salary of 7
Caphit of 5.8

Now pull up the cap and get the percentage for that season because that is really what matters in this discussion in a big way. Which was a part of the 10 million gamble on Price and Bob, now we will have to see what covid and the stop does in terms of that. But again, we are assuming we lock in Askarov at those rates which isn't known and also if we do that means he has won Vezina Trophies and been playing on one of the best deals in the NHL while being a dominant force. That sounds like a good problem.

 

[Odie Cleghorn]

Honestly our future 2nd line of Raymond-Veleno-Zadina could be pretty sweet. I could get behind that.

At last 2 of them should be on the 1st line. Only Larkin is better. Bertuzzi and Mantha are 2nd liners.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

At last 2 of them should be on the 1st line. Only Larkin is better. Bertuzzi and Mantha are 2nd liners.

Zadina has a ways to go to pass Mantha. The advanced statistics put Mantha as a possession driving first line winger. He is a legit talent. I hope Zadina can catch him, but that remains to be seen. Anthony Mantha is a terrific hockey player, I hope we can just see a fully healthy campaign next year.

 

[HisNoodliness]

Drysdale isn't the clear BPA though
He's been surpassed by Sanderson on several rankings.

Honestly I haven't watched Sanderson a ton, but in my viewings he is not a prospect of nearly the same caliber. I started to try to break down their abilities on a talent by talent basis but quickly realized that I think Drysdale is better at everything besides size. I don't even think Sanderson is better defensively despite his size advantage. I honestly am struggling to identify even a situational skill like stripping the puck along the boards or moving guys out from the net front. What it ultimately comes down to me is that Drysdale is a phenomenal skater and the way it lets him impact the game all over the ice is just superior to Sanderson. He has so much more impact.

 

[MTU hockey]

A bit concerning how many people here are caught up on a players position, thankfully I don't believe NHL GM's are that concerned about it. The Wings have been a bottom 10 team the last couple seasons and when you are picking top 5 in the draft that isn't the time to get cute, you draft the player with elite potential or BPA however you want to look at it. The Wings lack elite talent at every position, they need elite players period. Doesn't matter what position they play because the reality is when the team is back to making the playoffs over half the players (probably more) will not even be on the team anymore. You don't have a historically bad season like the Wings just did and go into the draft saying "we only need centers or LD", thats a good way to extend the rebuild even longer which realistically this team will be drafting top 10 for several more years anyway. If you are picking fourth and your choices are between a center that might hit 50-60 points or a winger that you think could be the next Pastrnak/Marner, give me the winger every day of the week. People are really underselling what a truly elite winger can do for a team, it would easily boost Larkin and Mantha to PPG players or even better.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Best team in the NHL are spending:

Boston: 9.75 million on their tandem (also next season)
St. Louis: 8.75 million on their tandem (also next season)
Tampa: 4.8 million on their tandem (going to 10.8 next year)
Colorado: 4.28 million on their tandem (going to 5.33 next year)
Washington: 7.025 million tandem (Holtby is a Free Agent only 925K on the books for next year)

Even when digging in St. Louis will dump Allen, but have to pay Binnington big bucks so that will likely remain at least at that number in two years. Remember the biggest problem for years on a very talented Blues team was believed to be goalie stopping them for years. Tampa isn't going to fall off the map. Colorado's biggest question mark on if they can make a deep run is where? Goalie. Washington is cheaper because of the ELC.

By the way two years in we might be signing a bridge on Askarov and making like Tampa for a few years before the big contract anyway just like Vasy. But you're looking for about 8 million on a tandem, you can load an ELC guy Colorado and Washington have those advantages for their backup. Of course Colorado is likely going to get ousted for their guy. The Blues struck gold we believe but they will have to make a call in two years and it won't be cheap. Rask has been a top paid netminder for several years, Holtby makes a decent chunk of change.

Lundqvist took the Rangers to the Stanley Cup finals during his current deal. Just because Montreal has done a terrible job of building, something we honestly all make jokes about isn't really on Carey Price. They haven't had a passable center for a decade and that isn't down to them paying Price too much, it is because GMMB isn't very good at his job. Luongo, Quick and Crawford all made the finals while being paid well.

What you cannot afford to do is pay a Martin Jones like that, I agree there. But you might not be paying Askarov big money until the middle of the decade, heck even later if you do the big lock in when he is 25 or 26 like Vasy, that is 7 years off, if you cannot build a team around a vezina trophy caliber goalie and find a tandem solution to carry an elite talent than you're not a very good GM. Having expensive goalies hasn't slowed down Boston at all for the past decade.

There is more that goes into it than just expensive goalies. When you draft guys like pasta and they are stars on elc it covers A LOT of warts

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Honestly I haven't watched Sanderson a ton, but in my viewings he is not a prospect of nearly the same caliber. I started to try to break down their abilities on a talent by talent basis but quickly realized that I think Drysdale is better at everything besides size. I don't even think Sanderson is better defensively despite his size advantage. I honestly am struggling to identify even a situational skill like stripping the puck along the boards or moving guys out from the net front. What it ultimately comes down to me is that Drysdale is a phenomenal skater and the way it lets him impact the game all over the ice is just superior to Sanderson. He has so much more impact.

I actually think they are pretty close, but favor Drysdale because of how high his offensive potential is.

Sanderson is better defensively for me. He has a better stick, he gaps up better, he plays the body more efficiently and effectively in part because of his size. I can actually say as I dug in on these guys and watched some games and film I could find on them which admittedly is harder to do without prospectshifts.com around anymore (rip) but man do I like Sanderson's game a lot. I can see why he is gaining so much momentum in the scouting community and he is one of the younger guys in the draft in terms of the elite guys. He is still 17 right now. I would put him WHL if we do draft him.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

There is more that goes into it than just expensive goalies. When you draft guys like pasta and they are stars on elc it covers A LOT of warts

Pastrnak was extended a couple years ago, he makes 6.7 million long-term and is playing on that deal. Boston extended their guys at the right rates continuously. Rask is their highest paid player. Hopefully Yzerman can do likewise, I mean we want him to. We get a good chance to have a feel for that with Mantha shortly because he can command some pretty good money and term. Boston can sell a winning environment, Stevie had that in Tampa as well. Big Mo will be a sign if he can get guys to buy into that, Larkin and Mantha have already said in interviews Yzerman talks about it the same way Stamkos eluded to it. Hopefully they buy in.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

A bit concerning how many people here are caught up on a players position, thankfully I don't believe NHL GM's are that concerned about it. The Wings have been a bottom 10 team the last couple seasons and when you are picking top 5 in the draft that isn't the time to get cute, you draft the player with elite potential or BPA however you want to look at it. The Wings lack elite talent at every position, they need elite players period. Doesn't matter what position they play because the reality is when the team is back to making the playoffs over half the players (probably more) will not even be on the team anymore. You don't have a historically bad season like the Wings just did and go into the draft saying "we only need centers or LD", thats a good way to extend the rebuild even longer which realistically this team will be drafting top 10 for several more years anyway. If you are picking fourth and your choices are between a center that might hit 50-60 points or a winger that you think could be the next Pastrnak/Marner, give me the winger every day of the week. People are really underselling what a truly elite winger can do for a team, it would easily boost Larkin and Mantha to PPG players or even better.

I honestly don't think that mistake will be made. Scouts boards operate a lot different than the general consensus. I think it can matter in terms of certain draft strategies. Like if we were picking between Seider and Cozens and you know the D takes longer to develop and you have a certain time frame you think you're working with. But you basically have to have almost identical grades on them.

That isn't to say it never happens, we have seen teams reach for need, I just think people don't understand that player is usually pretty close to a different player on the board everyone thinks they should be picking.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Pastrnak was extended a couple years ago, he makes 6.7 million long-term and is playing on that deal. Boston extended their guys at the right rates continuously. Rask is their highest paid player. Hopefully Yzerman can do likewise, I mean we want him to. We get a good chance to have a feel for that with Mantha shortly because he can command some pretty good money and term. Boston can sell a winning environment, Stevie had that in Tampa as well. Big Mo will be a sign if he can get guys to buy into that, Larkin and Mantha have already said in interviews Yzerman talks about it the same way Stamkos eluded to it. Hopefully they buy in.

krejci is their highest paid player but either way I wouldn’t lose my mind if our goalies made a combined 9 million.

 

[ricky0034]

I think Wings fans are some of the hardest to convince because they watched Osgood get it done as a "good enough" goalie on stacked teams that are impossible to replicate in the modern area.

Like the difference between paying an elite goalie and a journeyman starter is a 3rd line depth player like Helm or Abdelkader. Or a Jonathan Ericsson. It's not even DeKeyser or Nielsen money difference. I'd rather bargain bin hunt for a 3rd line depth forward or 2nd paring PK guy than a goalie, honestly.

it's more that with very few exceptions Goalies tend to be so inconsistent from year to year that you really don't even know what you're getting

like why spend a bunch of money on an elite Goalie if they're gonna just be a straight up below average starter for the season like 30-50% of the time?

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

krejci is their highest paid player but either way I wouldn’t lose my mind if our goalies made a combined 9 million.

I did forget Krejci made that much, though he has been a big time player for them in a few post-seasons.

I think the harder part is the big time starters don't start the huge workloads anymore. I think we know that is a good idea, but I was hopeful pre-Bob that might drop the figures a bit. We will see, I think 8 million or 9 million should be our target on a tandem. If we have someone exceptional we need to go with the ELC backup or European free agent route to keep it down. I am willing to be a bit over if we have a Vezina guy. But it just seems so far off and that concern does mean he wound up being everything we could hope for.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I did forget Krejci made that much, though he has been a big time player for them in a few post-seasons.

I think the harder part is the big time starters don't start the huge workloads anymore. I think we know that is a good idea, but I was hopeful pre-Bob that might drop the figures a bit. We will see, I think 8 million or 9 million should be our target on a tandem. If we have someone exceptional we need to go with the ELC backup or European free agent route to keep it down. I am willing to be a bit over if we have a Vezina guy. But it just seems so far off and that concern does mean he wound up being everything we could hope for.

I’m also not opposed to taking askarov as far as paying goalies goes. He would be cost controlled for at least 5-6 years. You just better hope you win before he demands 10 mil imo

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

I’m also not opposed to taking askarov as far as paying goalies goes. He would be cost controlled for at least 5-6 years. You just better hope you win before he demands 10 mil imo

Which I understand and despite making the case, to be clear I answered Raymond to this question.

I just won't be disappointed if they went that route.

 

[Mlotek]

Now pull up the cap and get the percentage for that season because that is really what matters in this discussion in a big way. Which was a part of the 10 million gamble on Price and Bob, now we will have to see what covid and the stop does in terms of that. But again, we are assuming we lock in Askarov at those rates which isn't known and also if we do that means he has won Vezina Trophies and been playing on one of the best deals in the NHL while being a dominant force. That sounds like a good problem.

It will be interesting to see what Washington. Roll the dice on Samsonov or pay the big money to keep Holtby (whose numbers have been Howard level the past 3 years).

The Price/Bobrovky deals were stupid before even signed.

30+ year old goalie.
Long term deal.
Big money.

What could go wrong?

Don't need a crystal ball to predict that.



In today's NHL there isn't much difference between starters. The teams in front of the goalie, strategy, and their defensive play in general play a much bigger role.


This isn't the 90s where a handful of guys like Hasek and Brodeur are head and shoulders better than everyone else. The difference between a top goalie and a mid level starter in today's NHL isn't that great. Nowhere near 20-30 years ago. And it my eyes, it isn't worth double the salary in a cap situation.


That is why I am against paying goalies big money.


Bob Price were so good this year both their teams were outside of the playoffs when the season got postponed.

Whose the next highest paid goalie? Lundi?

Funny enough he split time with a guy on an ELC who outperformed Lundi. Probably would have been in a playoff spot if they didn't go 50/50 and gave Georgiev the nod.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

It will be interesting to see what Washington. Roll the dice on Samsonov or pay the big money to keep Holtby (whose numbers have been Howard level the past 3 years).

The Price/Bobrovky deals were stupid before even signed.

30+ year old goalie.
Long term deal.
Big money.

What could go wrong?

Don't need a crystal ball to predict that.



In today's NHL there isn't much difference between starters. The teams in front of the goalie, strategy, and their defensive play in general play a much bigger role.


This isn't the 90s where a handful of guys like Hasek and Brodeur are head and shoulders better than everyone else. The difference between a top goalie and a mid level starter in today's NHL isn't that great. Nowhere near 20-30 years ago. And it my eyes, it isn't worth double the salary in a cap situation.


That is why I am against paying goalies big money.


Bob Price were so good this year both their teams were outside of the playoffs when the season got postponed.

Whose the next highest paid goalie? Lundi?

Funny enough he split time with a guy on an ELC who outperformed Lundi. Probably would have been in a playoff spot if they didn't go 50/50 and gave Georgiev the nod.

But Vasy is actually a huge part of Tampa's strategy and the first half of his deal is in his 20s which is actually what we would be talking about with Askarov.

Winnipeg is competing for the playoffs really because of their goalie alone. I think Anaheim will have a tough call in this rebuild because of how good Gibson is. We will see, I know the point your driving at and in some respects I agree. But I think having an elite one isn't a problem. We can make the hard call when they approach their mid 30s. In Askarov's case that is 12 to 14 years away, sorry that isn't a good sales pitch on me currently.

 

[MBH]

Quick 2nd cup
Salary of 7
Caphit of 5.8

At 7.3M in today's numbers - highest on our team,

 

[wingerdinger]

Left side.
He's going to be a huge, minute-eating defenseman, all-situations (except maybe running the point on the powerplay) defenseman.
He's an unbelievably good defender in ways Drysdale never will be.

And to be honest, I think Drysdale's skills are overrated.
I watched the videos he doesn't look as dynamic as I expected.

At worst, Sanderson is a Seider-level prospect. We drafted Seider at 6.
Sanderson at 4 wouldn't be bad.

Even if Sanderson and Seider never develop that next level on offense...
You could pair
Sanderson-Hronek.
And then maybe Johansson-Seider
Or Cholo-Seider

If we draft Sanderson, our future defense could already be built.

Despite an influx of young defensemen who've stepped into the league and produced, it generally takes time for young defensemen to learn to play on the defensive side of things.
So we could spend the next 5 years developing Seider, Hronek, Cholowski, Sanderson, Johansson, McIsaac, etc...
Keep some of these guys like Larkin and Bertuzzi and Zadina around.
And then spend the next 3-4 years drafting the forward core.

Sanderson gives me Jack and Erik Johnson vibes who are fine and all, but really don't move the needle for me. Especially considering next year's draft and the amount of high end defensemen available. Come on down Luke Hughes *fingers crossed.

I still feel postioning, hockey sense and strong edges/skating skills are just as an effective if more way to defend, it's why i have Drysdale well ahead of Sanderson.

 

[Snuggs]

Idk, I guess I'd pick/try Marco Rossi. Just think he's solid. Not sure on guys like Drysdale/Sanderson to be honest. Goalie route will take a minute to develop but might pay off in 2-4 years. Idk, just like Rossi the best though, Need some help at C, scoring, PP. It'll take a 1-3 years with him too but just feel more sure about Rossi over Askarov and it's not really a slight on Askarov it's just a lot to expect him to be a dominate top 5 goalie in the NHL throughout his career which is the only reason you'd select him in the top 5.

 

[wingfan]

Zadina has a ways to go to pass Mantha. The advanced statistics put Mantha as a possession driving first line winger. He is a legit talent. I hope Zadina can catch him, but that remains to be seen. Anthony Mantha is a terrific hockey player, I hope we can just see a fully healthy campaign next year.

It's mind boggling to me that this statement even needs to be made. Our offense hits a brick f***ing wall whenever he's out. I'm very hopeful Zadina is going to become a great player and I think he started showing he's a legit future top 6 scoring winger but Mantha already has all the tools AND the toolbox to be an elite 1st line winger. We just need a full season. When Mantha's on his game he can take it over by himself, he even showed flashes of this going back to his first semi regular season with the Wings in 16-17. Zadina hasn't shone that yet..

As for the pick. I voted Rossi. I would not be disappointed if we went with Raymond or Drysdale here. I know a lot of fans probably wouldn't like an Askarov pick here, but I wouldn't be upset. His lateral movement and reflexes are absolutely incredible. The only thing that concerns me with Askarov is his rebound control.

 

[MBH]

Sanderson gives me Jack and Erik Johnson vibes who are fine and all, but really don't move the needle for me. Especially considering next year's draft and the amount of high end defensemen available. Come on down Luke Hughes *fingers crossed.

I still feel postioning, hockey sense and strong edges/skating skills are just as an effective if more way to defend, it's why i have Drysdale well ahead of Sanderson.

I don't really get why JMFJ wasn't better.
The decision making wasn't there, I guess.
But the skating and the hands...
I think he bulked up too much or something. He should have easily been as good as Kronwall - and he simply wasn't.

But I don't see any of JFMJ's blunders in the Dzone.

It's gonna be interesting to see where HockeyProspect, Button and McKenzie put these guys.