Who would Detroit take at 4?

[Frk It]

He really is. His talent is unreal. He's a freak athlete with incredible mobility and puck tracking. Now I know people are weary of goalies that didn't quite live up to the hype, ala Jack Campbell or Kari Lehtonen, but Askarov is not merely a big, positional goalie. His movement laterally is some of the best I've seen in, well, a very long time.

If you take Askarov, I think you're getting a sure bet to be a great NHL goalie for a long time. Like I don't feel even a little risk that you're getting a starter for the next decade with him.

Some of the defenders and forwards left, I don't know if the same is true. Obviously elite talent upfront would be preferable to a goalie. But if it's a really good forward versus an elite goalie, give me the goalie all day. And from everything Askarov shows, he's got that Carey Price elite talent written all over him.

Tangent time:
And for every snarky "What did the Canadians do with Price?" Sure, sure. What did the Islanders do with #1 overall elite center Tavares? What did the Stars do with Seguin AND Benn? And the Sharks with Thornton? The Sedins? Parise. Weber. Suter. Stamkos. Kovalchuk. And on and on. Just because a team doesn't cross the finish line doesn't mean having an elite goalie is a damn failure. Just like any of the aforementioned guys would be incredible top 5 picks in any draft, despite lack of shiny Cup success.

People just remember the elite goalies that haven't won. There's a ton of elite defenders and forwards that don't get it done, either.

I'm not opposed to having an elite goalie. I am opposed at having an elite goalie at the expense at a high percentage change at an elite forward/defenseman.

 

[19 for president]

I'd look into trading back, but if not either Raymond or Drysdale.

 

[Bench]

I'm not opposed to having an elite goalie.

 

[Retire91]

Everything sounds good about Askarov but at number 4? I think I would be really unsure about that move. Yzerman is not afraid to take a first round goalie though but that was at 19 and that was one of two first round picks he had.

I still think a top end forward helps more than top goalie unless you miss out on someone Patrick Roy caliber I would stick with a skater at number 4 and lean more on forward.

 

[ricky0034]

He really is. His talent is unreal. He's a freak athlete with incredible mobility and puck tracking. Now I know people are weary of goalies that didn't quite live up to the hype, ala Jack Campbell or Kari Lehtonen, but Askarov is not merely a big, positional goalie. His movement laterally is some of the best I've seen in, well, a very long time.

If you take Askarov, I think you're getting a sure bet to be a great NHL goalie for a long time. Like I don't feel even a little risk that you're getting a starter for the next decade with him.

Some of the defenders and forwards left, I don't know if the same is true. Obviously elite talent upfront would be preferable to a goalie. But if it's a really good forward versus an elite goalie, give me the goalie all day. And from everything Askarov shows, he's got that Carey Price elite talent written all over him.

Tangent time:
And for every snarky "What did the Canadians do with Price?" Sure, sure. What did the Islanders do with #1 overall elite center Tavares? What did the Stars do with Seguin AND Benn? And the Sharks with Thornton? The Sedins? Parise. Weber. Suter. Stamkos. Kovalchuk. And on and on. Just because a team doesn't cross the finish line doesn't mean having an elite goalie is a damn failure. Just like any of the aforementioned guys would be incredible top 5 picks in any draft, despite lack of shiny Cup success.

People just remember the elite goalies that haven't won. There's a ton of elite defenders and forwards that don't get it done, either.

the difference is the better players at other positions are generally consistent enough to be worth whatever contract they end up signing

you mention Price,he's had some good years but he's also had some bad ones and I honestly think he's a net negative value with his contract and has been for a while

that's a risk you run into with Goalies that doesn't really apply to other positions anywhere near as much,if you're getting an elite Goalie you not only need an elite Goalie you also need one of the very few elite Goalies that will actually be consistent year to year or you'll honestly be better off with a lesser one and devoting the money elsewhere

like even if you completely ignore the whole Goalies being harder to project thing and can magically guarantee me Askarov will be elite that still doesn't tell me whether or not i'll actually want him once he starts getting paid like it,that entirely depends on year to year consistency and only like a couple Goalies a generation have that kind of consistency

 

[Bench]

the difference is the better players at other positions are generally consistent enough to be worth whatever contract they end up signing

Oh yes, no contract issues whatsoever with Weber or Kovy. Or Parise. Or Suter soon. Just doesn't happen, eh? It's just goalies.

 

[FabricDetails]

You think Stevie has already had discussions with other teams to get a sense of what they'd be willing to trade for the 4th pick (should they bad luck their way into it)? Or is it too early?

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Oh yes, no contract issues whatsoever with Weber or Kovy. Or Parise. Or Suter soon. Just doesn't happen, eh? It's just goalies.

Suter has already had 8 good productive years, is 35 now & probably stays at this level for ~2 more...so possibly ~2-3yrs of fall off after, that's great for a 13yr. 1D contract.

The rest Kovy/Parise & slightly lesser degree Weber, agreed. But I get your point.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

You think Stevie has already had discussions with other teams to get a sense of what they'd be willing to trade for the 4th pick (should they bad luck their way into it)? Or is it too early?

With C-19 taking away the scouting etc., GM's have excess time on their hands to chat it up, I'm sure they do it. SY probably has a good idea by now, but things can change.

 

[FMichael]

No clue.

Maybe the kid that plays D

 

[ricky0034]

Oh yes, no contract issues whatsoever with Weber or Kovy. Or Parise. Or Suter soon. Just doesn't happen, eh? It's just goalies.

there's a difference between going a bit long on the term and having some bad years later on and a contract that's pretty much just universally panned in every way since day one like Price or Bobrovsky(and for the former there's that contract term limit nowadays anyways so it pretty much takes injuries to turn a skater contract that isn't already in their twilight years that sour at this point)

the latter is way more common among elite Goalies with how volatile the position is

 

[Frk It]

Lol... he gets me.

 

[The Real Pastafarian]

I'd love to get Drysdale, I think this guy can be special. And defensemen take longer to mature than forwards, so let's work on the blue line first.

I'd rather win the first pick, though, and trade back to 4th, and get more picks in the late first and early second rounds that appear rich with still-promising talent, along with Drysdale.

Of course, we still need a number one center -- Larkin seems better-suited to a second line on a good team. Let's pick that center up next year, when everyone else is drooling over defensemen. Zig when they zag.

 

[Frk It]

I have these guys ranked as:

Raymond
Drysdale
Perfetti
Lundell
Askarov
Rossi
Holtz
Sanderson

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Drysdale or Raymond I guess.

If they get 4th and trade down for a guy they want...

I can see them wanting Askarov.

 

[simonedvinsson]

of the options, i'd go:

1. rossi | realistically, i think raymond and rossi are pretty neck and neck, but i'm giving this to rossi due to positional bias.
2. raymond | getting buried in the shl hurt his hype rating, but i could still see him going second or third overall if a team likes him.
3. sanderson | the hype train has swept me up, and the more i rewatch his play late in the season, i more content i am with sanderson, should the red wings pursue another defenseman.
4. drysdale | skill-wise, drysdale is probably a better prospect than sanderson, but i've seen a few bone-headed plays that have left me hesitant about drysdale. add in some positional bias (the farm is stacked on the right side), and sanderson is the go ahead candidate. i still think drysdale is going to be a great nhl defenseman though.
5. perfetti | i watch him play, and he is a poor man's rossi, but i don't think perfetti is that far off from rossi's level, which goes to show how much i love the top eight picks in this draft.
6. askarov | he's a great goalie prospect, but i would be genuinely disappointed for a million reasons if this was the pick. that goes for all prospects from this point onward.
7. lundell | this guy gets a lot more skepticism than anyone else in the draft, probably, from internet fanboys. i'm just as guilty as anyone. has his learning curve plateau'd out? there's a good argument there, but even if he has, he's as safe a bet for the nhl as there is after the first handful of players, so he's certainly worth the risk. i'm still not a believer though.
8. holtz | the more scouting reports i've read and the more video i've watched, the less enthusiastic i am about the guy. i'm not calling him a bust, but i have doubts he'll ever be the top line winger the world is looking for. in any event, the wings have zadina filling that role, and with more pressing needs, i'd rather not roll the dice on a goal-scoring winger who doesn't bring a whole lot else to the table.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Drysdale or Raymond I guess.

If they get 4th and trade down for a guy they want...

I can see them wanting Askarov.

I have heard he entered the season 2nd on a couple teams boards.

I am not sure where he still sits, but I have a feeling he is very high still on a few teams board at least. While I know some will have the experience of really only watching him the WJCs this year, I doubt scouts have forgot the guy they thought was a generational goalie and drawing comparisons to Price. I wouldn't be shocked at all if we select him #4. I know people will lose their minds here and some will have valid points about where you should select a goalie.

I will continue to say though I only look at three players in this draft as good as a lot of the players are as "marquee" Franchise level players. Faces of the franchise kind of guys.

Lafreniere, Byfield and Askarov are those guys for me. I have no doubt when I watch him that Askarov will win Vezina trophies. He is a marvel for how good he is at his age and he still looks like he can keep getting better to me. Goalies are scary as hell. I get that. I dropped him on my board because if he winds up merely a very good one, well that is tough in the top 5. But I wouldn't fault a team for picking him. He has everything you could dream of in a NHL goalie, frankly he even has the anomaly of being a right catching goalie which is an adjustment for teams certainly in the regular season. I think you can adjust in the playoffs to be clear. In any event, I would be excited for Askarov. Because I think he solidifies our net for a decade. Not only that I think he provides top 5 goal-tending for the entire back half of this decade at least. That has to be our window for winning and I think he will compete for this team as a starter in a couple years. We will see, but if Yzerman pulls that trigger, make no mistake it is for a real difference maker. He is a gamble, but he does have a really big boom for those downplaying that.

 

[WingsToPick4th]

I would take Alexis Lafreniere at 4th

 

[Retire91]

People keep throwing the idea of trading down out there like meh if we don't like how it goes we just trade down.

The last time a pick for pick trade in the top 4 happened that did not involve a major roster player going in one direction or the other was 2004. It's not like trading down is always an option sitting there and we don't have a significant roster player we can afford to move.

 

[Bench]

I will continue to say though I only look at three players in this draft as good as a lot of the players are as "marquee" Franchise level players. Faces of the franchise kind of guys.

Lafreniere, Byfield and Askarov are those guys for me. I have no doubt when I watch him that Askarov will win Vezina trophies.

Couldn't agree more. Like I struggle to evaluate someone like Raymond and many of the other fringe top 5 guys. There's parts I like. Parts that look pretty normal. It's hard for me to say. But Askarov stands out among goalies. Like, way, way out.

If you're into goaltending, basically watching Askarov is what people saw when McDavid and Crosby were tearing it up in their teens. His movement around the net it almost effortless at times, but he's so fast, and he's tracking everything. He's got that Brodeur athleticism in spades but plays the more modern, positional butterfly. It's gorgeous.

Needless to say, whoever get this kid, I'm going to be a fan and watch their games.

 

[RedMenace]

Okay, the Askarov arguements got me.

Honestly, I don't give a damn, I just want Red Wings hockey back.

 

[MBH]

The way I see it the poll should only have 3 names on it:
Drysdale, IMO the clear BPA here. Awesome combination of skating, vision and all-around play. Would immediately be our best prospect and was my vote in the poll. Our relative strength at RD compared to the other prospect positions doesn't deter me much as we still need help everywhere.

Raymond: supremely skilled and arguably the highest upside in the draft period. If we're swinging for the fences, we're taking Raymond thinking that he can become a top producer possessing uniquely good offensive instincts.

Rossi: his production can't be ignored. If we're picking for need then Rossi addresses the desire for a top center. He can distribute the puck extremely well, plays the game the right way and we could run our offense through him if it all goes well.

Wouldn't be super happy with Holtz, Perfetti, or Lundell as I think the three above are strictly better prospects, but I could live with them. I'd be pissed off about Askarov or Sanderson. We shouldn't be using 4th overall on them. It's an unacceptable notion IMO.

Drysdale isn't the clear BPA though
He's been surpassed by Sanderson on several rankings.

 

[Frk It]

Drysdale isn't the clear BPA though
He's been surpassed by Sanderson on several rankings.

Not any of the ones that matter.

 

[MBH]

He really is. His talent is unreal. He's a freak athlete with incredible mobility and puck tracking. Now I know people are weary of goalies that didn't quite live up to the hype, ala Jack Campbell or Kari Lehtonen, but Askarov is not merely a big, positional goalie. His movement laterally is some of the best I've seen in, well, a very long time.

If you take Askarov, I think you're getting a sure bet to be a great NHL goalie for a long time. Like I don't feel even a little risk that you're getting a starter for the next decade with him.

Some of the defenders and forwards left, I don't know if the same is true. Obviously elite talent upfront would be preferable to a goalie. But if it's a really good forward versus an elite goalie, give me the goalie all day. And from everything Askarov shows, he's got that Carey Price elite talent written all over him.

Tangent time:
And for every snarky "What did the Canadians do with Price?" Sure, sure. What did the Islanders do with #1 overall elite center Tavares? What did the Stars do with Seguin AND Benn? And the Sharks with Thornton? The Sedins? Parise. Weber. Suter. Stamkos. Kovalchuk. And on and on. Just because a team doesn't cross the finish line doesn't mean having an elite goalie is a damn failure. Just like any of the aforementioned guys would be incredible top 5 picks in any draft, despite lack of shiny Cup success.

People just remember the elite goalies that haven't won. There's a ton of elite defenders and forwards that don't get it done, either.

The problem isn't anecdotal stuff about what we remember. The problem is that goalies don't project very well and there's a lot of data showing why it's risky to take goalies in round one.

Here are your #1Cs (TOI) and goalies of the cup winners in recent years.
2010 Toews 3rd overall, Niemi Undrafted
2011 Krejci 73rd overall, Thomas, 217th overall
2012 Kopitar 11th overall, Quick 72nd overall
2013 Toews 3rd overall, Crawford 54th overall
2014 Kopitar 11th overall, Quick 72nd overall
2015 Toews 3rd overall, Crawford 54th overall
2016 Crosby 1st overall, Murray 83rd overall
2017 Crosby 1st overall, Murray 83rd overall
2018 Backstrom 4th overall Holtby 93rd overall
2019 Oreilly, 33rd overall. Binnington 88th overall

10 out of 10 times, the Center was taken higher. 10 out of 10 times, by a lot.

All that said, i can easily see Yzerman taking Askarov.

 

[MBH]

Not any of the ones that matter.

RedLine Report - Sanderson 6, Drysdale 7
McKeen's - Sanderson 5, Drysdale 6