Who would Detroit take at 4?

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

Look at the Bertuzzi chart.
After 2 25-25-50 seasons, Bert exploded over PPG.
He did it for 2 years and receded.

Mantha is 25. He just had his best PPG. I think he can beat a PPG for a couple years.

And then he's going to decline. And 230-pounders generally don't decline very well.
Boyle.
Stewart.
Maroon.
Franzen.
Lucic.
Hanzal.
Horton.
Those are the 230-pounders in today's game.

Let's go back 10 years.
Dustin Penner.
Antropov.
Clowe.
Tkachuk.
Anthony Stewart
Todd Bertuzzi.
Ponikarovsky.

I don't see much upside in signing Mantha to a deal that pays him $8M a year until he's 34.

I don't understand your comparison beyond the guys all being big.

Mantha is far, far more offensively talented than...

Boyle
Maroon
Lucic
Hanzal
Penner
Antropov
Clowe
Anthony Stewart
Ponikarovsky

Mantha has been able to largely avoid concussions and debilitating back injuries which would be the real cause of the decline of Franzen, Horton, and Bertuzzi.

Tkachuk had an 18 year career and was still approaching 30 goal seasons as he hit his 30s.

The thing with Mantha is that he has the skill of a little guy in a big guy's frame. He's not a big pounder which will keep him from injuries. One would hope that tangling with Muzzin this past year and seeing that he was hurt by Witter and then by Muzzin he would lay off the "laying the body" and just use his frame to get scoring chances. Remove Mantha's attempts at fights where he injures himself and we're probably talking about a back to back 30 goal scorer and you'd be bending over backwards to sign that guy.

He simply plays a different game than most of those 230+ pound guys who you note declined badly. The closest match is probably Franzen and Franzen declined because of straight up dirty hits causing injury and his well-documented anxiety issues that we as Wings fans know about.

 

[Dotter]

I think that's too definitive a statement. While its not something we should ever rely on, so many goalies don't come into their own until their mid 20s+. If we were picking 10-15 I'd be much happier with Askarov or Knight last year, but you have to be pretty damn certain on a goalie to take them top 4. What do we think of Wallstedt next year?

1.Laf
2.Stutz
3.Drysdale

#4/Askarov

Byfield is not going to have the impact that Askarov will have in the NHL.

I had (and currently have) a lot of hype for Knight. As much hype as I have on Knight, Askarov is going to be on a completely different level... and a pick you take in the top 8 if not top 5. Knight at 15th overall makes more sense. Askarov is going to be a generational goalie for many, many years to come. If you want to seal the goal position for the next 2 decades with a goalie that would make Roy blush, you do it this draft with the 4th overall.

 

[Hen Kolland]

1.Laf
2.Stutz
3.Drysdale

#4/Askarov

Byfield is not going to have the impact that Askarov will have in the NHL.

I had (and currently have) a lot of hype for Knight. As much hype as I have on Knight, Askarov is going to be on a completely different level... and a pick you take in the top 8 if not top 5. Knight at 15th overall makes more sense. Askarov is going to be a generational goalie for many, many years to come. If you want to seal the goal position for the next 2 decades with a goalie that would make Roy blush, you do it this draft with the 4th overall.

Alright, let’s tap the breaks on the whole, he’s better than Roy talk.

Askarov, if he hits his absolute ceiling, has nearly the best odds to be the most impactful player in this draft. If he only somewhat taps his potential, then he probably won’t be in the discussion of the top 10 at the end of his career. And the odds that he becomes nothing special, are not necessarily higher, but significantly more unknown and prone to disappoint.

I’ll give you a pass on Lafreniere because of the comfort level in his potential; he’s top 6 caliber next year off the bat. But the fact that you threw in Stutzle and Drysdale into this select company of people you assume to be better than Askarov, and then make that comment about Byfield specifically. That’s a yikes from me.

Byfield might be the only player in this draft whose ceiling has a greater impact than Askarov’s.

 

[MBH]

I was a Montreal fan when Roy was a rookie. So I get a kick out of people seeing Askarov and saying he'll be the next Roy.
Montreal fans didn't think anything of Roy until he suddenly turned into superman in the 85 playoffs.
I mean, maybe Askarov will be great.
But it's funny to say he's the next Roy when nobody had a clue Roy was going to be Roy at the same age.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Wings have no goalies in the system that will ever amount to helping this team win a Stanley Cup. If Yzerman drafts Yaroslav Askarov, Wings could have a potential Vezina winning goalie on a Carey Price level tied up for the next 15 to 20 years sealing the goal position til 2036/41.

Re-sign Howard, tank and get another top 3 or 4 pick next season and continue another year or two in the rebuild and start gearing up for a competitive 2022/23 season. Wings could be legit top perennial cup contenders by 2027 by the time Larkin is 29/30 yrs old.

No, just no. When was the last time any team in any era had a Vezina winning/caliber goalie for 15-20 years? Goalies are very volatile, even the best ones.

Re: Howard, No! ...we don't need to add more crap to tank, we're already crappy. Losing culture isn't good for so many reasons (Kids/vets/UFA's/RFA's/ticket & merchandise sales/sets a bad precedent) etc.

Larkin turns 24 next month...7 yrs from now (July) he'll be 31. We'd better be perennial cup contenders long before "2027", otherwise we might as well trade Larkin/Mantha/Bert/Hronek/Fabbri/DDK/LGD & any other players for picks/prospects now.

 

[MBH]

I don't understand your comparison beyond the guys all being big.

Mantha is far, far more offensively talented than...

Boyle
Maroon
Lucic
Hanzal
Penner
Antropov
Clowe
Anthony Stewart
Ponikarovsky

Mantha has been able to largely avoid concussions and debilitating back injuries which would be the real cause of the decline of Franzen, Horton, and Bertuzzi.

Tkachuk had an 18 year career and was still approaching 30 goal seasons as he hit his 30s.

The thing with Mantha is that he has the skill of a little guy in a big guy's frame. He's not a big pounder which will keep him from injuries. One would hope that tangling with Muzzin this past year and seeing that he was hurt by Witter and then by Muzzin he would lay off the "laying the body" and just use his frame to get scoring chances. Remove Mantha's attempts at fights where he injures himself and we're probably talking about a back to back 30 goal scorer and you'd be bending over backwards to sign that guy.

He simply plays a different game than most of those 230+ pound guys who you note declined badly. The closest match is probably Franzen and Franzen declined because of straight up dirty hits causing injury and his well-documented anxiety issues that we as Wings fans know about.

Maybe it's not easy to play at 235 pounds and skate around the ice.
I saw how big Mantha was this year and I was shocked. He looks like a body builder more than a hockey player.

Anyway, if he winds up costing $8M for the next eight years, it could be a problem, I'm guessing the last 4 years won't be pretty.

So if we're gonna move him - now's the prime time to do it.

If not, I'm fine with that too.

I do wonder what the economic impact to the NHL revenues is going to do to contract negotiations this year.

 

[MTU hockey]

Maybe it's not easy to play at 235 pounds and skate around the ice.
I saw how big Mantha was this year and I was shocked. He looks like a body builder more than a hockey player.

Anyway, if he winds up costing $8M for the next eight years, it could be a problem, I'm guessing the last 4 years won't be pretty.

So if we're gonna move him - now's the prime time to do it.

If not, I'm fine with that too.

I do wonder what the economic impact to the NHL revenues is going to do to contract negotiations this year.

I'm pretty sure most of those players decline had little to do with their weight so much as their skating. Most of the guys you listed like Lucic and Maroon were never considered great skaters at any point in their careers and as they aged/picked up injuries it declined enough to severely limit their effectiveness. Not only is Mantha more skilled with the puck than most of those players listed, he's also a much better skater than them as well. That's pretty much what makes Mantha so special, that skill+skating+size combo that very few NHL players have. I agree with the other poster that Mantha has just as good of a chance of aging like Thornton, Getzlaf, or Wheeler than the players you listed.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I would put him WHL if we do draft him.

That I don't agree with.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

That I don't agree with.

He is committed to UND for 21-22. I just don't see having him in the developmental program for another year. I am not sure he would be ready for the AHL next year. So I would put him in the WHL, turn him pro after next year in terms of that plan. With him being picked out of the developmental program they are not married to keeping him there until he is 20 is the reasoning. But I would still like him to play a higher level, especially if we sink the #4 pick into him.

 

[Winger98]

Deciding what to do with Mantha has a lot to do with where we expect this team to be in three years, imo. If we think Yzerman is going to somehow turn this club into a cup contender in three years, you hang onto Mantha. If not, you deal him. Even if he ages well, and is productive as a 30/31/32 year old, he's not going to be the same Mantha we see today. He is going to slow down. That's just the reality of life. Shanny was 28/29 when the Wings were winning their first cups with him, the guy was a physical force. He left a mark on the game. When the Wings won the Cup in 02, he just wasn't the same guy. still productive, still that big shot, but he just wasn't the same player.

Mantha could be a helluva player, especially if he stays healthy. But if we are talking about returning to contention in 5+ years, the guy just isn't going to be the sort of player we will really need. Now, whoever we get for him might not be worth much, either. might bust entirely. But we're going to want a guy who is just flat out younger than Mantha at that point, hitting their peak at the right moment, to be one of the real horses this team can tie itself to.

 

[MBH]

I'm pretty sure most of those players decline had little to do with their weight so much as their skating. Most of the guys you listed like Lucic and Maroon were never considered great skaters at any point in their careers and as they aged/picked up injuries it declined enough to severely limit their effectiveness. Not only is Mantha more skilled with the puck than most of those players listed, he's also a much better skater than them as well. That's pretty much what makes Mantha so special, that skill+skating+size combo that very few NHL players have. I agree with the other poster that Mantha has just as good of a chance of aging like Thornton, Getzlaf, or Wheeler than the players you listed.

Well, maybe Wheeler.
Thornton and Getzlaf were elite at a young age in a way that Mantha has not been.
It took Wheeler a few years to hit his stride.

 

[MBH]

He is committed to UND for 21-22. I just don't see having him in the developmental program for another year. I am not sure he would be ready for the AHL next year. So I would put him in the WHL, turn him pro after next year in terms of that plan. With him being picked out of the developmental program they are not married to keeping him there until he is 20 is the reasoning. But I would still like him to play a higher level, especially if we sink the #4 pick into him.

Why don't you like UND?

 

[odin1981]

Holy fan bias batman. Mantha does not get you a top ten pick. Not does he get you a top 4 d. The only trade of a winger for a d that "brought" that was Hall a top 5 left winger in the league for the guy that was on the devil's who only had top pairing potential but was a second pairing defender.

I mean, I understand we all want the team to improve and all, but let's have some common sense and logic as well. To the topic at hand it's hard to say because we have to see what is on the board after the first three are taken.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I was a Montreal fan when Roy was a rookie. So I get a kick out of people seeing Askarov and saying he'll be the next Roy.
Montreal fans didn't think anything of Roy until he suddenly turned into superman in the 85 playoffs.
I mean, maybe Askarov will be great.
But it's funny to say he's the next Roy when nobody had a clue Roy was going to be Roy at the same age.

To be fair, scouting was a lot different in those days.

 

[Go Wings]

I said it once and i´m gonna say it again, Raymond will be best player in this draft after Lafreniere. His ceiling and puck skills are insane, he looks like frcking magician.

I will take that bet. I will take the field over Raymond anyday. He's not in my top 4.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

He is committed to UND for 21-22. I just don't see having him in the developmental program for another year. I am not sure he would be ready for the AHL next year. So I would put him in the WHL, turn him pro after next year in terms of that plan. With him being picked out of the developmental program they are not married to keeping him there until he is 20 is the reasoning. But I would still like him to play a higher level, especially if we sink the #4 pick into him.

Didn't remember the UND commit for 21-22.

I understand your counter-point.

 

[Bench]

To be fair, scouting was a lot different in those days.

Especially for goalies. It's seen the most radical changes of any position by a wide margin.

And it's not like Patrick Roy was some unknown UDFA. He did get drafted 51st overall as the 3rd goalie off the board. Billington and Reaugh went before him.

Daryl "Razor" Reaugh (color guy for the Stars) loves bringing up the fact he was drafted before Roy. Reaugh only suited up for 27 NHL games in his 14 year pro hockey career. Guy is Conn Smythe quality behind the mic though.

 

[Bench]

No, just no. When was the last time any team in any era had a Vezina winning/caliber goalie for 15-20 years? Goalies are very volatile, even the best ones.

Any team in any era? We don't have to go back that far.

Henrik Lundqvist started his career a bit later and almost pulled out 15. Five Vezina nominations and one win. Was named the Rangers MVP in 9 seasons. Let that sink in. Your goalie is your damn MVP 9 years over his 15 year career. The last one was in 2018. That's pretty damn good.

Before that Brodeur and Roy had two decades of dominance and combined for 7 Cups and 7 Vezinas. We don't have to go back into a time machine, Brodeur only retired 6 years ago.

Just feels like we've had some pretty great examples in very recent history. I don't have to dig into the archives for this one.

 

[lilidk]

Between Rossi and Raymond, make your pick. I m not sure Byfield is better for as than those 2. Stutzle will be dream. As much as I like Drysdale , he is not what wings need. Askarov will be Worst pick for us . Perfetti and Sanderson not a bad picks but I prefer others

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Any team in any era? We don't have to go back that far.

Henrik Lundqvist started his career a bit later and almost pulled out 15. Five Vezina nominations and one win. Was named the Rangers MVP in 9 seasons. Let that sink in. Your goalie is your damn MVP 9 years over his 15 year career. The last one was in 2018. That's pretty damn good.

Before that Brodeur and Roy had two decades of dominance and combined for 7 Cups and 7 Vezinas. We don't have to go back into a time machine, Brodeur only retired 6 years ago.

Just feels like we've had some pretty great examples in very recent history. I don't have to dig into the archives for this one.

I was gonna list Brodeur & Roy as the obvious choices, but figured that was kind of a given. Maybe I phrased the question wrong. I knew Lundquist carried the Rangers for the majority of his career, but he is probably borderline for the scenario Dotter painted (no cups, 1 Vezina, 1 finals appearance), great career. So basically a generational goalie, great, what are the chances Askarov develops into one? Imo, too risky to take @ 4th OA.

Another way to see it is, Roy was drafted in '84 draft. So 36 years worth of drafts & only 2 generational goalies + Lundqvist. Hasek doesn't fit the scenario either, though @ his peak, nobody was better. Lots of good/very good goalies drafted since '84, but only 2 fit the scenario.

 

[Dotter]

Alright, let’s tap the breaks on the whole, he’s better than Roy talk.

Askarov, if he hits his absolute ceiling, has nearly the best odds to be the most impactful player in this draft. If he only somewhat taps his potential, then he probably won’t be in the discussion of the top 10 at the end of his career. And the odds that he becomes nothing special, are not necessarily higher, but significantly more unknown and prone to disappoint.

I’ll give you a pass on Lafreniere because of the comfort level in his potential; he’s top 6 caliber next year off the bat. But the fact that you threw in Stutzle and Drysdale into this select company of people you assume to be better than Askarov, and then make that comment about Byfield specifically. That’s a yikes from me.

Byfield might be the only player in this draft whose ceiling has a greater impact than Askarov’s.

I'm not high on Byfield.
& nobody said Askarov was going to be better than Roy. Or atleast I didn't.

I was a Montreal fan when Roy was a rookie. So I get a kick out of people seeing Askarov and saying he'll be the next Roy.
Montreal fans didn't think anything of Roy until he suddenly turned into superman in the 85 playoffs.
I mean, maybe Askarov will be great.
But it's funny to say he's the next Roy when nobody had a clue Roy was going to be Roy at the same age.

nobody said Askarov was going to be the next Roy. Or atleast I didn't. I said he's going to patch up our goalie woes for the next 15 to 20 years... and be the top of his class. Yes, ahead of Knight and could "make Roy blush".

 

[Bench]

So basically a generational goalie, great, what are the chances Askarov develops into one?

As good as of bet we've seen in the last 15 years. That's the entire point. If you compare Askarov's ability to players anywhere near him at this point, like Price, he's a lock to be a star goalie. This isn't just the best goalie available this year, it's the best goalie available for over a decade.

I doubt we have to worry about it, I just find this conversation interesting...
but I also wouldn't be surprised if the Wings end up with #4 that suddenly they walk up to podium and take the BPA. And that's probably the goalie this year. And may not happen again for another 15 years.

 

[Henkka]

At least not a defenceman for sure.

Just so fed up for this speculating. Not gonna waste any thoughts until I see the lottery and our real drafting spot.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Why don't you like UND?

I like UND, if he was going next year that would be fine. I think part of this is the age in terms of the plan was for him to enter college hockey later and how they allocated their scholarships. But I want him playing at a better level next year, so I wouldn't have him on the delayed college track anymore if we draft him, especially at 4.

 

[Oddbob]

What about our needs, though?
At 4, we'll have our choice of filling needs:
LD: Sanderson
G: Askarov
C: Rossi
Or, if you have someone better - you take him.
If you trade down to 8, maybe now the only good option you have is Lundell or taking a winger.

Sanderson doesn't sound like a Top 5 to me, and I don't want us to get a goalie with our 1st, as we are so weak at everything else, that trumps goaltending right now! I think from what I have heard about Rossi he falls to 8-12, eventhough his production was awesome. You would think outscoring Byfield in both of their draft years he would have more hype but it almost sounds like people think he is an afterthought.