Who would Detroit take at 4?

[SirloinUB]

Assuming Byfield and Stutzle are gone I’d like to see us draft Raymond, Perfetti, or Drysdale.

more than anything, I’m just glad it’s not my job to make this decision. There is Lots of good options here, none, more obvious than the next

 

[SuperScript29]

I think Perfetti would be good at #4, but knowing Yzerman, I have a feeling he's going off-board. Don't be surprised if we end up with someone like Askarov. If that's the route we're going to take, I hope we move back a few spots and get something out of it.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

I get the impression that Rossi's work ethic and attitude have actually hurt his value in some posters eyes. People assume that if you take a player who isn't as well known for their effort and off ice work then there's easy room for improvement. When they see Rossi they assume that because he already carries himself like a pro, he's hit a cap and won't improve as much. I've seen several posts echoing similar thoughts, and to be honest they might be some of the worst takes I've read on this site. It's hard to teach work-ethic, drive, and competitiveness. It's not a given that any of these prospects will ever became super hard workers after they're drafted. I promise that there will be plenty of room for growth in his game in the next few years. Being driven and detail oriented in juniors is not something that should be held against him.

No, his work ethic is not being held against him. People are just trying to account for his physical maturity and development in their projection of his ceiling as a professional player. I think he will continue to get better as a hockey player. That is all but guaranteed of an 18-year-old. I do, however, think he is closer to his ceiling because we know what he looks like as a more physically developed player. As such, I am not expecting any outsize developmental gains even though he will continue to develop and get better over the next couple of years.

 

[Henkka]

https://www.futurescopehockey.com/post/prospect-report-cole-perfetti

 

[K1900L]

I'm pretty confident that at least one of the players ranked 4-10 will turn out to be better than one of the top 3.
And I somehow believe that there will be another Pastrnak further in the back. However, that is just some wild guessing and we wouldn't be able to spot these guys. The prospects ranked 4-10 are so unbelievably clustered that it probably won't be foreseeable within 3-4 years which pick actually panned out best.

My pick right now is Raymond, followed by Drysdale and Rossi. However, that could change if the Europeans are able to go back to the ice soon. Still hoping that either Stützle or Byfield will fall/we will be able to trade for them as they just seem to be safe picks.

The DEL could return to play in late August. Does anyone know when the SHL will start?
Lundell, Holtz, Raymond, (Stützle), Peterka and Reichel are all picks that could fall to us.

 

[newfy]

I get the impression that Rossi's work ethic and attitude have actually hurt his value in some posters eyes. People assume that if you take a player who isn't as well known for their effort and off ice work then there's easy room for improvement. When they see Rossi they assume that because he already carries himself like a pro, he's hit a cap and won't improve as much. I've seen several posts echoing similar thoughts, and to be honest they might be some of the worst takes I've read on this site. It's hard to teach work-ethic, drive, and competitiveness. It's not a given that any of these prospects will ever became super hard workers after they're drafted. I promise that there will be plenty of room for growth in his game in the next few years. Being driven and detail oriented in juniors is not something that should be held against him.

Man, I was getting into this last night and cant believe people still dont get this. Scouting is all about comparing where guys will be in 5 years not right now. No one thinks Rossi has hit a cap, people think hes a lot closer to his cap than other players. How hard is it for people to get that? Its an extremely basic concept of scouting

No one is saying draft someone without work ethic or drive, theyre saying hes physically mature and older and that makes it less likely for him to make a lot of big gains like other players could.

If you dont want to include it in the equation for who the wings should draft thats fine, but actual scouts do. Literally from Mackenzies final rankings "Some scouts wonder how much more untapped potential there might be versus some of the younger, less physically developed prospects, that Rossi might be more of a what-you-see-is- what-you-get player"... but us posters who get that are the ones with the bad takes lol okkkkkk

Perfetti had character red flags? Where have you heard that from? Kid has a charity he put together with his family to help kids with cancer. Kid oozes character

Yeah he absolutely doesnt. He also won CHL scholastic player of the year.

 

[J15]

No, his work ethic is not being held against him. People are just trying to account for his physical maturity and development in their projection of his ceiling as a professional player. I think he will continue to get better as a hockey player. That is all but guaranteed of an 18-year-old. I do, however, think he is closer to his ceiling because we know what he looks like as a more physically developed player. As such, I am not expecting any outsize developmental gains even though he will continue to develop and get better over the next couple of years.

Man, I was getting into this last night and cant believe people still dont get this. Scouting is all about comparing where guys will be in 5 years not right now. No one thinks Rossi has hit a cap, people think hes a lot closer to his cap than other players. How hard is it for people to get that? Its an extremely basic concept of scouting

No one is saying draft someone without work ethic or drive, theyre saying hes physically mature and older and that makes it less likely for him to make a lot of big gains like other players could.

Seems like a cop out explanation to me. Aside from the fact that "physical maturity" is a nebulous term to begin with, that criticism of Rossi seems to be completely baseless. Take this interview with his coach (around 2:25):

He clearly states that Rossi's biggest gains to be made are related to improving his strength, explosiveness, etc. These comments seem pretty strange if Rossi really is head and shoulders above his peers in terms of "physical maturity".

It seems like the reputation Rossi has gotten about being more developed and having a lower ceiling, is solely because he has a reputation of taking his training more seriously than others.

 

[newfy]

Seems like a cop out explanation to me. Aside from the fact that "physical maturity" is a nebulous term to begin with, that criticism of Rossi seems to be completely baseless. Take this interview with his coach (around 2:25):

He clearly states that Rossi's biggest gains to be made are related to improving his strength, explosiveness, etc. These comments seem pretty strange if Rossi really is head and shoulders above his peers in terms of "physical maturity".

It seems like the reputation Rossi has gotten about being more developed and having a lower ceiling, is solely because he has a reputation of taking his training more seriously than others.

I agree that Rossis biggest gains need to be made in improving his explosiveness. Thats just a hell of a lot harder to do when youre physically mature and dont have as much room on your body to pack on more muscle. The things he needs to improve are the things that based on what we know about him, should be harder to make gains in than other players

Youre free to think what you want but the unbiased scouts who do this for a living in Mackenzies poll agree with the take youre so vehemently against. The reason he has that reputation of being more developed and closer to his ceiling is because people are taking in the entire situation with him. Part of it is absolutely his work ethic. Hes apparently already been eating and training like a pro for years, thats a great attitude to have and its got him to the point where hes going to be a top 10 pick. It also means hes closer to his athletic peak than others. From reports, hes not just "more serious", hes already a complete gym rat with an amazing diet, there isnt much improvement to be made there going forward. The reputation also comes form the fact that hes the oldest player in the draft basically. It also comes from quotes from legit NHL scouts.

Thats the entire situation, its not a bad take. Its a take that anyone involved in athletics and understands the human body should understand. Its the reason that take is specifically brought up by anonymous scouts that have provided their ranking of him. Youre having trouble following pretty simple logic.

 

[J15]

I agree that Rossis biggest gains need to be made in improving his explosiveness. Thats just a hell of a lot harder to do when youre physically mature and dont have as much room on your body to pack on more muscle. The things he needs to improve are the things that based on what we know about him, should be harder to make gains in than other players

Youre free to think what you want but the unbiased scouts who do this for a living in Mackenzies poll agree with the take youre so vehemently against. The reason he has that reputation of being more developed and closer to his ceiling is because people are taking in the entire situation with him. Part of it is absolutely his work ethic. Hes apparently already been eating and training like a pro for years, thats a great attitude to have and its got him to the point where hes going to be a top 10 pick. It also means hes closer to his athletic peak than others. From reports, hes not just "more serious", hes already a complete gym rat with an amazing diet, there isnt much improvement to be made there going forward. The reputation also comes form the fact that hes the oldest player in the draft basically. It also comes from quotes from legit NHL scouts.

Thats the entire situation, its not a bad take. Its a take that anyone involved in athletics and understands the human body should understand. Its the reason that take is specifically brought up by anonymous scouts that have provided their ranking of him. Youre having trouble following pretty simple logic.

I follow the logic, it's just a bad argument. But if the scouts have already decided then there's no point in me arguing.

 

[Kronwalled55]

Call me crazy, but I think Zadina at 6 is better than all of these forwards at 4.

Drysdale is the only skater I'd pick if the other top 3 are gone.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I follow the logic, it's just a bad argument. But if the scouts have already decided then there's no point in me arguing.

It's not a bad argument at all..you just need to fully grasp the concept of projection.

There are things that stop a player from being an elite player, and to loosely group them:
Character Issues - receptiveness to coaching, effort level, dedication, leadership
Lack of Skill - shooting, puck skills, passing, faceoffs, defensive stickwork
Poor Athlete/Genetics - skating (speed and agility), strength, balance, coordination, height, weight
Lack of Intelligence - problem solving, reasoning, positioning, anticipating

We know that Rossi has a brilliant character, possibly the best in the class. We know that while he isn't at the top of the class, he doesn't lack skill. He's a very smart player. What we don't know is whether or not his genetics and athletic ability will hinder him when going up against the best of the best athletes and players in the world. And when we need to step back and assess whether he can improve that area to the point where we know he will be able to excel at a high level.

Take character consideration out of it. We all would love Marco Rossi for the fact that he would walk on hot coals and crushed glass if someone told him it would make him better. That being said, what people are discussing render his habits and his mindset completely irrelevant. We know he will work hard, but some people just flat out can't improve the athletic side of things enough to overcome certain limitations. The kid will play in the NHL, maybe even in 2020-21, but some people are just weighing upside vs safety, and upside is winning.

 

[LAKings88]

I would think top three are dialed in. Detroit is really where the draft can go so many ways.

 

[TheMule93]

I'd be fairly happy with Perfetti, Drysdale, Raymond, or Rossi at this point.

 

[newfy]

I follow the logic, it's just a bad argument. But if the scouts have already decided then there's no point in me arguing.

No you dont follow the logic. Youre having trouble grasping pretty simple human physiology and how it effects athletes as they get older. Scouts and a lot of people on this board understand that, you dont for some reason.

I wouldnt even necessarily dislike a Rossi pick at 4, but I'm not going to pretend that genetics and muscle development dont exist to make it seem like a better pick if it happens

 

[Henkka]

Call me crazy, but I think Zadina at 6 is better than all of these forwards at 4.

I call you crazy. This is best forward class for a while.

Drysdale is the only skater I'd pick if the other top 3 are gone.

Crazy too, when he is the overhyped top defenceman in a weak defenceman class.

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

As to the original question, in order Raymond, Perfetti, Drysdale and Rossi. I should probably like all of them more than I do, but pendulums swing long and hard. They are all pretty damn close to be honest.

I like Lundell but I am not taking him at 4. While I don't think Drysdale is a sure fire top-pair defensemen, I don't think Sanderson is either. They are each equally flawed, just in very different ways. Drysdale is closer to what I value though. I don't dislike Rossi but I don't see him as a center which is why I am probably more bearish than others on him. I will trust Hakan if we pass on Raymond. He should know him as well as anyone at this point. I love Perfetti's skill and head but acknowledge the risks for sure. Holtz is too much like Zadina in my opinion but I am probably sleeping on him a bit too much.

 

[Killerjas]

If Yzerman wants Perfetti, I kinda want us to trade down for the 6th or 7th pick since I see the following happening, maybe get another 2nd round pick for our 4th?

Lafreniere
Byfield
Stutzle
Drysdale
Raymond
Rossi
Perfetti
Holtz
Sanderson
Lundell
Askarov
Amirov

 

[cjeagle]

I think Perfetti would be good at #4, but knowing Yzerman, I have a feeling he's going off-board. Don't be surprised if we end up with someone like Askarov. If that's the route we're going to take, I hope we move back a few spots and get something out of it.

I am expecting Ottawa would use the #5 slot on Askarov if still available so I don't think that would be a viable option. They have had many high selections and none of them was for a goaltender which they are in need of the most.

Just like Seider was an off the board surprise pick at #6 by Yzerman that proved to be quite successful, Askarov can easily have the same value at #4 many years down the road.

Yzerman also has a record of picking a goaltender from Russia in the past(Vasilevsky) at a higher slot than expected that proved to be a really good choice winning the Vezina trophy in 2018-19.

 

[Avery Rule]

I have a feeling we will see Ottawa grab Drysdale at 3

 

[Bench]

I have a feeling we will see Ottawa grab Drysdale at 3

Let's hope so. Walking out of this mess with Stutzle would be a huge get.

But I think there's a far greater chance if they want Drysdale, they wait for us to pick first and snag him at #5.

They get Stutzle at #3 then at #5 they can decide on the half dozen guys left that we didn't take.

 

[J15]

No you dont follow the logic. Youre having trouble grasping pretty simple human physiology and how it effects athletes as they get older. Scouts and a lot of people on this board understand that, you dont for some reason.

I wouldnt even necessarily dislike a Rossi pick at 4, but I'm not going to pretend that genetics and muscle development dont exist to make it seem like a better pick if it happens

First off, chill. I promise that this discussion will be a lot more productive if you don't try to straw-man my arguments. I took issue with people's assessment of Rossi's athleticism and somehow what you took from that was "this guy doesn't think athleticism matters".

My point was never that physiology and genetics don't matter. My point was that the criticism that I often hear about Rossi with respect to athleticism, physical maturity etc are almost all baseless and unsubstantiated. If your argument boils down to "he already works out a lot, and is therefore already at his athletic peak", then I think that's a drastic over simplification of physiology. If you want to actually make an argument for why Rossi is more physically mature or closer to his athletic ceiling I'm happy to hear it.

It's not a bad argument at all..you just need to fully grasp the concept of projection.

There are things that stop a player from being an elite player, and to loosely group them:
Character Issues - receptiveness to coaching, effort level, dedication, leadership
Lack of Skill - shooting, puck skills, passing, faceoffs, defensive stickwork
Poor Athlete/Genetics - skating (speed and agility), strength, balance, coordination, height, weight
Lack of Intelligence - problem solving, reasoning, positioning, anticipating

We know that Rossi has a brilliant character, possibly the best in the class. We know that while he isn't at the top of the class, he doesn't lack skill. He's a very smart player. What we don't know is whether or not his genetics and athletic ability will hinder him when going up against the best of the best athletes and players in the world. And when we need to step back and assess whether he can improve that area to the point where we know he will be able to excel at a high level.

Take character consideration out of it. We all would love Marco Rossi for the fact that he would walk on hot coals and crushed glass if someone told him it would make him better. That being said, what people are discussing render his habits and his mindset completely irrelevant. We know he will work hard, but some people just flat out can't improve the athletic side of things enough to overcome certain limitations. The kid will play in the NHL, maybe even in 2020-21, but some people are just weighing upside vs safety, and upside is winning.

I don't necessarily have an issue with the first part of your post. I obviously agree with the idea that athleticism and genetics being important in projecting player success. What I disagree with is how Rossi is assessed in those areas. The "bad arguments" I was referring too were arguments that Rossi somehow has less room to grow athletically than other players. I think it's a talking point that's been associated with Rossi for a while now without any real supporting evidence.

I also think that the criticism against Rossi was often more than just about physical development. Plenty of people were suggesting that his game was so refined at the junior level that he'll have no new tricks to learn at the pro level. It just seems like such a backwards way of assessing a prospect. The fact that he's able to pick on the small details in junior makes him more likely to pick up on the small details in the NHL. The fact that he takes his training seriously now makes me more, not less, confident he'll be able to make he necessary gains at the next level.

 

[Dotter]

Is it me or did Perfetti get a lot more votes ever since the lottery ended?

I think draft night he had 12 votes. I think now we know where we are drafting ppl are taking a hard look at the most likely players available. That's what I did and that's why I'm on the Perfetti train now.

Watching the other kids like Rossi, Raymond, and etc. Just didn't excite me. Except maybe Drysdale

 

[ManwithNoIdentity]

Trade 4OA and get something in return and then pick Askarov, boom

 

[lilidk]

Just watched Top CHL prospects game. They said Rossi favorite player is Datsyuk, so now I think we don't have a choice anymore

 

[lilidk]

Trade 4OA and get something in return and then pick Askarov, boom

Easy to say,there will be early second round picks as good as mid first and honestly after Lafreniere there are about 10 very good prospects