Who would Detroit take at 4?

[Bench]

Trade 4OA and get something in return and then pick Askarov, boom

I feel like you might have to find something before pick 11. I don't know why, but Minnesota just feels like the team to grab him at #11. And with all the picks NJ has, they might jump on him at #10, even with Blackwood in the pipeline.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

I'd take Perfetti at 4 ,then Andrae at 32.

Had me at the first part, lost me on the second.

 

[lilidk]

Had me at the first part, lost me on the second.

Anything wrong with Andrae?

 

[ArmChairGM89]

I feel like you might have to find something before pick 11. I don't know why, but Minnesota just feels like the team to grab him at #11. And with all the picks NJ has, they might jump on him at #10, even with Blackwood in the pipeline.

Wouldn’t be shocked if Ottawa takes him 5th. Got you 1c already why not take the goalie.

 

[newfy]

If you want to actually make an argument for why Rossi is more physically mature or closer to his athletic ceiling I'm happy to hear it.

Its like banging my head against a wall. I've said 4 or 5 times why hes more physically mature and closer to his athletic ceiling. This thread is literally littered with people saying why, and quotes from professional scouts agreeing with the take.

 

[Dotter]

He gets knocked off the puck far more then Rossi despite the size difference.

He has a tendency to get knocked over easily. His balance isn't there and he doesn't have the lower body strength that he should. For sure it's a red flag.

Guess Perfetti didn't get the memo.

 

[J15]

Its like banging my head against a wall. I've said 4 or 5 times why hes more physically mature and closer to his athletic ceiling. This thread is literally littered with people saying why, and quotes from professional scouts agreeing with the take.

Feel free to quote any of those times. All I've read is:

1) He likes to work out and eat well
2) He's short

If those two things alone are enough for you to extrapolate that he's near his athletic ceiling, and significant enough to influence your draft decision then fine. But it seems like a pretty big leap that requires you to throw out all the nuance around athletic development and training. The fact that you can accuse me of having "trouble grasping pretty simple human physiology " because I don't come to same conclusion is a pretty laughable.

 

[Dotter]

If Yzerman wants Perfetti, I kinda want us to trade down for the 6th or 7th pick

If Yzerman wants Perfetti, he better snatch him at #4 or he might not get him at all.
Cole Perfetti at eliteprospects.com

Yzerman didn't trade down to get Seider which he probably could have gotten later.

Don't try to be the smartest guy at the draft. You'll get burned.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Guess Perfetti didn't get the memo.

There are highlight videos of him getting knocked off the puck and a couple of times getting wrecked pretty bad. I’m not against Perfetti but it is a thing. Just pointing it out.

 

[Henkka]

Have been working some age-adjusted formula for DY and DY -1 Years in OHL.

Here are the results:

Best DY years:

1. Connor McDavid - 19,2 - season 2014-15 (production value, which will favor Goals and primary assists)
2. Quinton Byfield - 15,2 - season 2019-20
3. Dylan Strome - 11,9 - season 2014-15
4. Andrei Svechnikov - 11,2 - season 2017-18
5. Mitchell Marner - 11,4 - season 2014-15
6. Cole Perfetti - 9,5 - season 2019-20
7. Nick Suzuki - 8,4 - season 2016-17
8. Gabriel Vilardi - 8,1 - season 2016-17
9. Marco Rossi - 8,1 - season 2019-20
10. Arthur Kaliyev - 7,9 - season 2018-19
11. Alex DeBrincat - 7,7 - season 2015-16
12. Jacob Perreault - 6,3 - season 2019-20
13. Owen Tippet - 6,2 - season 2016-17
14. Matthew Tkachuk - 5,8 - season 2015-16
15. Jason Robertson - 5,5 - season 2016-17
16. Serron Noel - 5,2 - season 2017-18
17. Philip Tomasino - 5,1 - season 2018-19
18. Travis Konecny - 5,0 - season 2014-15

This is a great class. It's just OHL and there're these great kids at Europe too.

 

[Dotter]

There are highlight videos of him getting knocked off the puck and a couple of times getting wrecked pretty bad. I’m not against Perfetti but it is a thing. Just pointing it out.

Check the dates because his skating and strength (according to the Perfetti thread) was improving each day. I also think Scouching talked about this.

Also, check this out:

"He’s able to stay strong on his edges and maintain possession while being pressured, and doesn’t make a panic decision."

I don't know how to embed the video, but it's the 4th video down on the page https://www.futurescopehockey.com/post/prospect-report-cole-perfetti

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Have been working some age-adjusted formula for DY and DY -1 Years in OHL.

Here are the results:

Best DY years:

1. Connor McDavid - 19,2 - season 2014-15 (production value, which will favor Goals and primary assists)
2. Quinton Byfield - 15,2 - season 2019-20
3. Dylan Strome - 11,9 - season 2014-15
4. Andrei Svechnikov - 11,2 - season 2017-18
5. Mitchell Marner - 11,4 - season 2014-15
6. Cole Perfetti - 9,5 - season 2019-20
7. Nick Suzuki - 8,4 - season 2016-17
8. Gabriel Vilardi - 8,1 - season 2016-17
9. Marco Rossi - 8,1 - season 2019-20
10. Arthur Kaliyev - 7,9 - season 2018-19
11. Alex DeBrincat - 7,7 - season 2015-16
12. Jacob Perreault - 6,3 - season 2019-20
13. Owen Tippet - 6,2 - season 2016-17
14. Matthew Tkachuk - 5,8 - season 2015-16
15. Jason Robertson - 5,5 - season 2016-17
16. Serron Noel - 5,2 - season 2017-18
17. Philip Tomasino - 5,1 - season 2018-19
18. Travis Konecny - 5,0 - season 2014-15

This is a great class. It's just OHL and there're these great kids at Europe too.

Explain the formula

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

If we do pick #4 this is the time that has future Retrodrafts convos. Also, don't outsmart yourself at the draft.

how I think it goes barring Top 10 trades on draft day.


#4 Raymond
#5 Drysdale
#6 /7 Sanderson/Perfetti
#8 Askarov
#9 Rossi/Lundell
#10 Lundell/Rossi/Hughes

 

[Winger98]

If Yzerman wants Perfetti, he better snatch him at #4 or he might not get him at all.
Cole Perfetti at eliteprospects.com

Yzerman didn't trade down to get Seider which he probably could have gotten later.

Don't try to be the smartest guy at the draft. You'll get burned.

I thought Yzerman said part of the reason he didn't trade down was that they didn't think Seider would still be there. Agree, if you really like a guy at 4, just draft him and go with it. You trade down if you don't see anything there you really want.

 

[ShanahanMan]

Guess Perfetti didn't get the memo.

Sick goal but man, that slouching over really does worry me. I feel like it’s a broken back into the boards waiting to happen.

 

[Marky9er]

Check the dates because his skating and strength (according to the Perfetti thread) was improving each day. I also think Scouching talked about this.

Also, check this out:



I don't know how to embed the video, but it's the 4th video down on the page https://www.futurescopehockey.com/post/prospect-report-cole-perfetti

If you want to go way back theres some videos of OHL Cup games. Search "02 Vaughn Kings", Perfetti, Tullio, and O'Rourke on the powerplay together.

 

[Zetterberg4Captain]

Man I think Askerov really is going to be the best player available at 4

I think he could really change the trajectory of the franchise

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Have been working some age-adjusted formula for DY and DY -1 Years in OHL.

Here are the results:

Best DY years:

1. Connor McDavid - 19,2 - season 2014-15 (production value, which will favor Goals and primary assists)
2. Quinton Byfield - 15,2 - season 2019-20
3. Dylan Strome - 11,9 - season 2014-15
4. Andrei Svechnikov - 11,2 - season 2017-18
5. Mitchell Marner - 11,4 - season 2014-15
6. Cole Perfetti - 9,5 - season 2019-20
7. Nick Suzuki - 8,4 - season 2016-17
8. Gabriel Vilardi - 8,1 - season 2016-17
9. Marco Rossi - 8,1 - season 2019-20
10. Arthur Kaliyev - 7,9 - season 2018-19
11. Alex DeBrincat - 7,7 - season 2015-16
12. Jacob Perreault - 6,3 - season 2019-20
13. Owen Tippet - 6,2 - season 2016-17
14. Matthew Tkachuk - 5,8 - season 2015-16
15. Jason Robertson - 5,5 - season 2016-17
16. Serron Noel - 5,2 - season 2017-18
17. Philip Tomasino - 5,1 - season 2018-19
18. Travis Konecny - 5,0 - season 2014-15

This is a great class. It's just OHL and there're these great kids at Europe too.

If I remember right Iyer Prashanth does this and similarly at one point made this case for how crazy Byfield's season was when you adjusted for his age.

 

[Once]

Real excited to watch your rebuild under Stevie Y.

I’ll admit I am not caught up with your rebuild trajectory. But wouldn’t Rossi/Perfetti make sense at 4? Let him marinate next year and grab another high pick too? That be a potential elite playmaking centre + another high pick, coupled with Seider, Zadina, and Veleno in the mix. Wow.

Best

 

[Henkka]

Explain the formula

(Goals/60 + Points/60) * (ES P1/Game) = VALUE

(P1 = Goals + 1st assista)

So the first part of the formula double-favors goals, because both goals/60 and points /60 includes goals. Then it cuts some inflated PP-production off when adding some ES primary points data. There has been articles about these primary points, how they predict future success. And when that ES P1 is counted per game, it cuts some small ice-time flukes away and favors guys who can play big minutes.

Top5 in NHL from last 2 season at same formula, are Pastrnak, Kucherov, Stamkos, McDavid and Draisaitl.

Data is snapped from here:

Pick224 - Hockey Prospect Stats

This is my view of things, based on many advanced stats articles, which will favor primary points production. It just measures and tries to predict pure point production.

EDIT:

Also, it includes the age-adjustment formula, where DY-1 production in OHL is valued ~double vs. DY production. They really double their production on that age range.

So 18,5 old Rossi with 120 point production, means 17,5 Byfield being equal with 60 points !!

It feels unbelieveable, but it really goes that way.

 

[Winger98]

Real excited to watch your rebuild under Stevie Y.

I’ll admit I am not caught up with your rebuild trajectory. But wouldn’t Rossi/Perfetti make sense at 4? Let him marinate next year and grab another high pick too? That be a potential elite playmaking centre + another high pick, coupled with Seider, Zadina, and Veleno in the mix. Wow.

Best

A lot of it rests on where folks see Bert/Mantha/Larkin in the rebuild. If they were expected to be significant players, the Wings needed someone who could more immediately contribute in a big way. Picking 4th means the Wings are likely looking at a guy who will stew for a few years before making a significant contribution, which is going to essentially age out Bert/Mantha when being a legit playoff contending team suddenly becomes something that is five years out instead of two or three.

Picking fourth, the Wings just need to swing for the BPA and plan for a longer, uglier rebuild.

 

[Dotter]

I thought Yzerman said part of the reason he didn't trade down was that they didn't think Seider would still be there. Agree, if you really like a guy at 4, just draft him and go with it. You trade down if you don't see anything there you really want.

Yes the point is don't chance it. I am not sure he knew with absolute someone was taking him if Yzerman traded down, but clearly not a risk he was willing to take. If he feels that way about Perfetti, may as well snatch him at 4. He is predicted to go from #4 - #9 range. Who knows.

 

[Henkka]

OHL DY + DY -1 years included and age adjusted:

1. Connor McDavid - 19,2 - season 2014-15 (DY)
2. Connor McDavid - 18,9 - season 2013-14 (DY -1)
3. Quinton Byfield - 15,2 - season 2019-20 (DY)
4. Alex DeBrincat - 13,6 - season 2014-15 (DY -1)
5. Cole Perfetti - 12,3 - season 2018-19 (DY -1)
6. Dylan Strome - 11,9 - season 2014-15 (DY)
7. Mitchell Marner - 11,4 - season 2014-15 (DY)
8. Andrei Svechnikov - 11,2 - season 2017-18 (DY)
9. Quinton Byfield - 9,9 - season 2018-19 (DY -1)
10. Cole Perfetti - 9,5 - season 2019-20 (DY)
11. Mitchell Marner - 8,9 - season 2013-14 (DY -1)
12. Travis Konecny - 8,7 - season 2013-14 (DY -1)
13. Nick Suzuki - 8,4 - season 2016-17 (DY)
14. Gabriel Vilardi - 8,1 - season 2016-17 (DY)
15. Marco Rossi - 8,1 - season 2019-20 (DY)
16. Jacob Perreault - 8,1 - season 2018-19 (DY -1)
17. Arthur Kaliyev - 7,9 - season 2018-19
18. Alex DeBrincat - 7,7 - season 2015-16
19. Mason McTavish - 7,2 - season 2019-20 (DY -1) 2021 top OHL draftee
19. Jacob Perreault - 6,3 - season 2019-20 (DY)
20. Owen Tippet - 6,2 - season 2016-17 (DY)
21. Matthew Tkachuk - 5,8 - season 2015-16 (DY)
22. Jason Robertson - 5,5 - season 2016-17
23. Serron Noel - 5,2 - season 2017-18
24. Philip Tomasino - 5,1 - season 2018-19
25. Travis Konecny - 5,0 - season 2014-15 (DY)

It seems that players who have been able to produce two great seasons in-a-row, have become great producers in NHL. One season wonders like Strome have struggled. Strome's DY -1 season was only 3,3 on this formula.

And guys like DeBrincat, Konecny and Perfetti have had better DY -1 seasons than DY seasons. Both of the first 2 became great scorers.

It's also really impressive, if you merge those two seasons. Only McDavid and Byfield have been better. Perfetti beats Marner in 2-season data and that tells very much about his real potential. He seems to be a Marner-level of winger and still has some center potential.

Perfetti's DY -1 is the 3rd best after McDavid's DY-1 from last decade. Debrincat's DY-1 was inflated as being McDavid's linemate at Erie. Perfetti obviously isn't playing with generational player, he has done everything by himself.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Have been working some age-adjusted formula for DY and DY -1 Years in OHL.

Here are the results:

Best DY years:

1. Connor McDavid - 19,2 - season 2014-15 (production value, which will favor Goals and primary assists)
2. Quinton Byfield - 15,2 - season 2019-20
3. Dylan Strome - 11,9 - season 2014-15
4. Andrei Svechnikov - 11,2 - season 2017-18
5. Mitchell Marner - 11,4 - season 2014-15
6. Cole Perfetti - 9,5 - season 2019-20
7. Nick Suzuki - 8,4 - season 2016-17
8. Gabriel Vilardi - 8,1 - season 2016-17
9. Marco Rossi - 8,1 - season 2019-20
10. Arthur Kaliyev - 7,9 - season 2018-19
11. Alex DeBrincat - 7,7 - season 2015-16
12. Jacob Perreault - 6,3 - season 2019-20
13. Owen Tippet - 6,2 - season 2016-17
14. Matthew Tkachuk - 5,8 - season 2015-16
15. Jason Robertson - 5,5 - season 2016-17
16. Serron Noel - 5,2 - season 2017-18
17. Philip Tomasino - 5,1 - season 2018-19
18. Travis Konecny - 5,0 - season 2014-15

This is a great class. It's just OHL and there're these great kids at Europe too.

I've done a similar adjustment using the ES and PP data from pick 224 and I've come to a similar conclusion about the draft class. While the placements are different it is overall an incredible top end of the draft, Rossi, Byfield, and Perfetti would be top 3 picks based on their production in any other season. I personally used full point totals for my adjustments as I found in my research at the NHL level that secondary assists were rather noisy, but when you looked at assists as a whole they were more predictive than either A1 or A2.

The top 15 for points per GP adjustments for DY were:

1. Connor Mcdavid - 2.20
2. Marco Rossi - 1.79
3. Mitchell Marner - 1.79
4. Dylan Strome - 1.72
5. Quinton Byfield - 1.69
6. Matthew Tkachuk - 1.60
7. Cole Perfetti - 1.56
8. Taylor Hall - 1.54
9. Ryan Strome - 1.53
10. Tyler Seguin - 1.53
11. John Tavares - 1.47
12. Sam Bennett - 1.47
13. Alex DeBrincat - 1.44
14. Steven Stamkos - 1.43
15. Andrei Svechnikov - 1.43

When you account for estimated toi the rankings change, but there are far less "superstars" in the cohort so I was happy using per game numbers.

For your method did you adjust for league scoring rates or was it just an age adjustment? When I made my age adjustments I used a basic linear model similar to what was outlined here and the adjustments for scoring were based on the hockey-ref adjustments for adjusted NHL scoring. You could try and create a more elaborate aging curve, but I'm not sure it's really warranted.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

(Goals/60 + Points/60) * (ES P1/Game) = VALUE

(P1 = Goals + 1st assista)

So the first part of the formula double-favors goals, because both goals/60 and points /60 includes goals. Then it cuts some inflated PP-production off when adding some ES primary points data. There has been articles about these primary points, how they predict future success. And when that ES P1 is counted per game, it cuts some small ice-time flukes away and favors guys who can play big minutes.

Top5 in NHL from last 2 season at same formula, are Pastrnak, Kucherov, Stamkos, McDavid and Draisaitl.

Data is snapped from here:

Pick224 - Hockey Prospect Stats

This is my view of things, based on many advanced stats articles, which will favor primary points production. It just measures and tries to predict pure point production.

EDIT:

Also, it includes the age-adjustment formula, where DY-1 production in OHL is valued ~double vs. DY production. They really double their production on that age range.

So 18,5 old Rossi with 120 point production, means 17,5 Byfield being equal with 60 points !!

It feels unbelieveable, but it really goes that way.

Idk how much age should matter when they both have the same level of ohl experience (2years) plus compared to Rossi, byfield is massive lol.