Who would Detroit take at 4?

[Henkka]

Idk how much age should matter when they both have the same level of ohl experience (2years) plus compared to Rossi, byfield is massive lol.

On average, it seemed to be almost double production with Top OHL players from DY -1 to DY. Did use some average of the top 15 players.

Byfield did triple of his production, but he was the youngest of all. Could just tell how the youngest will take biggest step and oldest not so.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Idk how much age should matter when they both have the same level of ohl experience (2years) plus compared to Rossi, byfield is massive lol.

Prashanth Iyer had a look at a CHL scoring age adjustments, it's more robust in nature than the one I linked and while he didn't really outline his methods I think it's still pretty valid. He found that there is some sort of an age adjustment needed for late birthday players, but not necessarily for the entire age group.



I know that at the NHL level a lot of the growth in a players counting numbers comes from being given more TOI so I'd expect that trend to hold at lower levels as well.

 

[Henkka]

I know that at the NHL level a lot of the growth in a players counting numbers comes from being given more TOI so I'd expect that trend to hold at lower levels as well.

Yep. Every individual has a certain points/min rate, which varies surprisingly less during a career. And usually, when they get more matured, they get more stamina and can play more minutes, they'll keep that rate and score more points thanks to extra offensive minutes.

 

[DatsyukToZetterberg]

Yep. Every individual has a certain points/min rate, which varies surprisingly less during a career. And usually, when they get more matured, they get more stamina and can play more minutes, they'll keep that rate and score more points thanks to extra offensive minutes.

Not to go to far off topic, but I wouldn't say that points/min (or points/60) is a very stable statistic. The confidence interval for it is quite large and when I last checked a players year over year points/60 had an r^2 of around 0.6. As for TOI the average forward typically sees TOI increases until it peaks in their 26 year old season and they begin to steadily lose TOI beginning at their 29 year old season; defenceman peak at 28 and don't really see TOI decreases until they're 32.

Back on topic. I do wish that prospect leagues in NA kept track of TOI like some of the EU leagues do, though if they could keep track of more on ice statistics in general that would be great. I think using SOG instead of GF/GA to calculate eTOI would make it more accurate and being able to see a players on-ice sh% would help tease out some of the luck factor we currently can't account for. It'd make projecting players based on their numbers quite a bit easier as we would have more access to predictive tools. Being able to combine that information with a scouting report would give the full picture on a player.

 

[hanshin44]

Idk how much age should matter when they both have the same level of ohl experience (2years) plus compared to Rossi, byfield is massive lol.

Aho was a year older then Puljujarvi and a lot smaller, with Aho at 5'11 and Pulju at 6'4. Anybody who's seen them play in the NHL will tell you who utilizes their size better (and it's not the guy in Liiga right now).

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

I agree that Rossis biggest gains need to be made in improving his explosiveness. Thats just a hell of a lot harder to do when youre physically mature and dont have as much room on your body to pack on more muscle. The things he needs to improve are the things that based on what we know about him, should be harder to make gains in than other players

Youre free to think what you want but the unbiased scouts who do this for a living in Mackenzies poll agree with the take youre so vehemently against. The reason he has that reputation of being more developed and closer to his ceiling is because people are taking in the entire situation with him. Part of it is absolutely his work ethic. Hes apparently already been eating and training like a pro for years, thats a great attitude to have and its got him to the point where hes going to be a top 10 pick. It also means hes closer to his athletic peak than others. From reports, hes not just "more serious", hes already a complete gym rat with an amazing diet, there isnt much improvement to be made there going forward. The reputation also comes form the fact that hes the oldest player in the draft basically. It also comes from quotes from legit NHL scouts.

Thats the entire situation, its not a bad take. Its a take that anyone involved in athletics and understands the human body should understand. Its the reason that take is specifically brought up by anonymous scouts that have provided their ranking of him. Youre having trouble following pretty simple logic.

Datsyuk was a lot older and he was getting knocked down all over the place in his rookie year (still made plays as he was falling though.lol)
I would think a guy who is ahead of the curve because of work ethic says something about character and desire and it reasonable to think he will continue to work harder than others and therefore continue to make greater gains than them.

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

I've done a similar adjustment using the ES and PP data from pick 224 and I've come to a similar conclusion about the draft class. While the placements are different it is overall an incredible top end of the draft, Rossi, Byfield, and Perfetti would be top 3 picks based on their production in any other season. I personally used full point totals for my adjustments as I found in my research at the NHL level that secondary assists were rather noisy, but when you looked at assists as a whole they were more predictive than either A1 or A2.

The top 15 for points per GP adjustments for DY were:

1. Connor Mcdavid - 2.20
2. Marco Rossi - 1.79
3. Mitchell Marner - 1.79
4. Dylan Strome - 1.72
5. Quinton Byfield - 1.69
6. Matthew Tkachuk - 1.60
7. Cole Perfetti - 1.56
8. Taylor Hall - 1.54
9. Ryan Strome - 1.53
10. Tyler Seguin - 1.53
11. John Tavares - 1.47
12. Sam Bennett - 1.47
13. Alex DeBrincat - 1.44
14. Steven Stamkos - 1.43
15. Andrei Svechnikov - 1.43

When you account for estimated toi the rankings change, but there are far less "superstars" in the cohort so I was happy using per game numbers.

For your method did you adjust for league scoring rates or was it just an age adjustment? When I made my age adjustments I used a basic linear model similar to what was outlined here and the adjustments for scoring were based on the hockey-ref adjustments for adjusted NHL scoring. You could try and create a more elaborate aging curve, but I'm not sure it's really warranted.

It’s especially impressive that Rossi put up those kind of numbers while being as defensively responsible as he is. If they kept takeaway stats for the OHL, he probably would have been the runaway leader in the league.

 

[The Red Line]

Which means we’ll probably take the goalie

Yeah, and not even Askarov. Some kid from Belarus that no one's heard of.

 

[ArmChairGM89]

Aho was a year older then Puljujarvi and a lot smaller, with Aho at 5'11 and Pulju at 6'4. Anybody who's seen them play in the NHL will tell you who utilizes their size better (and it's not the guy in Liiga right now).

Yeah my reference to size is that I assume one reason for factoring age is height and weight advantage which in this situation wouldn’t benefit the older player.

 

[SirloinUB]

I know it won’t be a popular pick at 4 but the more I see of Anton Lundell the more I like him as a player. He kind of reminds me of Larkin in the 2014 draft. What I mean by that, is how they are viewed in relation to the rest of their draft class.

Neither would have been considered the flashiest or most skilled prospects in the class and both are/were heralded as more of a defensive prospect, yet both are highly effective players. Obviously Larkin is a much better skater but both have a knack for winning puck battles and making plays. Interestingly enough, Larkin typically goes top 5 in a redraft of 2014.

I also believe Lundell has underrated shooting and passing abilities and fits the mold that Yzerman likes of the competitive and hardworking personality. Just a great overall package imo.

 

[lilidk]

I know it won’t be a popular pick at 4 but the more I see of Anton Lundell the more I like him as a player. He kind of reminds me of Larkin in the 2014 draft. What I mean by that, is how they are viewed in relation to the rest of their draft class.

Neither would have been considered the flashiest or most skilled prospects in the class and both are/were heralded as more of a defensive prospect, yet both are highly effective players. Obviously Larkin is a much better skater but both have a knack for winning puck battles and making plays. Interestingly enough, Larkin typically goes top 5 in a redraft of 2014.

I also believe Lundell has underrated shooting and passing abilities and fits the mold that Yzerman likes of the competitive and hardworking personality. Just a great overall package imo.

Just before draft we will know much more about prospects, if he start new season dominating Liga, I don't see any reason not to take him. Same with Rossi , Raymond and Stutzle

 

[Hckytwn]

I know it won’t be a popular pick at 4 but the more I see of Anton Lundell the more I like him as a player. He kind of reminds me of Larkin in the 2014 draft. What I mean by that, is how they are viewed in relation to the rest of their draft class.

Neither would have been considered the flashiest or most skilled prospects in the class and both are/were heralded as more of a defensive prospect, yet both are highly effective players. Obviously Larkin is a much better skater but both have a knack for winning puck battles and making plays. Interestingly enough, Larkin typically goes top 5 in a redraft of 2014.

I also believe Lundell has underrated shooting and passing abilities and fits the mold that Yzerman likes of the competitive and hardworking personality. Just a great overall package imo.

I think Lundell will be an elite 2C or good 1C, depending where he goes. I definitely wouldn't reach for Lundell at #4, but I'd take him any day over Perfetti.

I have real concerns about Perfetti's skating; it's a mess for a top prospect. I can't see many pro coaches being comfortable with him being a 1C considering his mediocre mobility and how it affects his defensive game. He could bust because of it. I'd much rather we steer clear of that, especially with Raymond, Rossi, Holtz or Drysdale on the board (although, not sure we need a RD). Plus he doesn't really mesh with the Yzerplan. He's probably the slowest, lowest energy/pace player of the top prospects.

"He wants a skilled, fast team with guys who can play with pace, who have a foundation of skill, skating and hockey sense. It doesn’t matter if you’re big or small, Russian, American, Swede. As long as you could play fast-paced, skilled hockey, you would be on our list and if you were the next guy on our list, we would pick you..." - Julien BriseBois on Yzerman

 

[Henkka]

Plus he doesn't really mesh with the Yzerplan. He's probably the slowest, lowest energy/pace player of the top prospects.

"He wants a skilled, fast team with guys who can play with pace, who have a foundation of skill, skating and hockey sense. It doesn’t matter if you’re big or small, Russian, American, Swede. As long as you could play fast-paced, skilled hockey, you would be on our list and if you were the next guy on our list, we would pick you..." - Julien BriseBois on Yzerman

Every player does not have to be from same mold. That way we would have one-dimensional team, which will always bust at the playoffs.

 

[theVladiator]

Voted Drysdale, he is #2 on my overall list, but I think there is a good chance he is available.
Have Byfield at #3, but he is unlikely to slip.
If both Drysdale and Byfield are gone (not sure how likely that is) I would rather we pick my #4 Holtz than hyped Stutzle.

Also, too much Perfetti in this thread for my liking. Great talent, but I am seriously concerned about him translating his game to the NHL.

 

[Hen Kolland]

I think Lundell will be an elite 2C or good 1C, depending where he goes. I definitely wouldn't reach for Lundell at #4, but I'd take him any day over Perfetti.

I have real concerns about Perfetti's skating; it's a mess for a top prospect. I can't see many pro coaches being comfortable with him being a 1C considering his mediocre mobility and how it affects his defensive game. He could bust because of it. I'd much rather we steer clear of that, especially with Raymond, Rossi, Holtz or Drysdale on the board (although, not sure we need a RD). Plus he doesn't really mesh with the Yzerplan. He's probably the slowest, lowest energy/pace player of the top prospects.

"He wants a skilled, fast team with guys who can play with pace, who have a foundation of skill, skating and hockey sense. It doesn’t matter if you’re big or small, Russian, American, Swede. As long as you could play fast-paced, skilled hockey, you would be on our list and if you were the next guy on our list, we would pick you..." - Julien BriseBois on Yzerman

That quote literally describes Perfetti. His foundation is in skill and hockey sense, like top 3 in the draft minimum. His edge work is very good, although he could improve his dynamic straight line speed. He controls the game, but still plays an intellectually fast paced game. Fast paced does not necessarily mean you need to skate fast.

 

[Frk It]

That quote literally describes Perfetti. His foundation is in skill and hockey sense, like top 3 in the draft minimum. His edge work is very good, although he could improve his dynamic straight line speed. He controls the game, but still plays an intellectually fast paced game. Fast paced does not necessarily mean you need to skate fast.

It really describes Stutzle though... like to a T. Which is why I do imagine he is super high on Detroit's board.

 

[Bench]

It really describes Stutzle though... like to a T. Which is why I do imagine he is super high on Detroit's board.

I'm a little crestfallen that dream is dead.

 

[Hen Kolland]

It really describes Stutzle though... like to a T. Which is why I do imagine he is super high on Detroit's board.

If you want to play up tempo, I agree. There are different ways to play fast paced that doesn't require the fastest skaters transporting the puck in a short time frame.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

Anything wrong with Andrae?

Too small. He might surprise, but I'd rather not gamble on that.

 

[Henkka]

Seems that Perfetti scored more points in games he was a center, than when he was a winger. That's interesting. Just went through that game-by-game data and separated games where he had a lots of faceoffs of games where had just small amount of faceoffs. Less production and more assist-weighted stats on games with less faceoffs (potentially winger).

 

[Hckytwn]

That quote literally describes Perfetti. His foundation is in skill and hockey sense, like top 3 in the draft minimum. His edge work is very good, although he could improve his dynamic straight line speed. He controls the game, but still plays an intellectually fast paced game. Fast paced does not necessarily mean you need to skate fast.

He's got insane skill and elite hockey sense, and an amazing mind for the game, I agree. But speed, pace and overall skating? No way. His acceleration is downright poor, so much so he appears sluggish. I've seen more than a few analysts question his work ethic, which I actually think is wrong--he's actually good in puck battles and his compete level is high. It's just his skating makes him look lazy. Technically it's poor; he's awkward and inefficient. I think it makes him more tired than he would be if he had better form. It causes him to float too much or even sit down in spots. His defense and forechecking suffer also. I just don't think coaches would rely on him as a result.

Is there a very special player there? Yes. Could he be one of the best in this draft "with the right" coaching/system/development? Definitely. But, I've seen that caveat made of many players before and most don't pan out. The Red Wings are picking at #4, not #8. They don't need to take risks or make concessions. There are players with just as much upside but without that level of downside.

I'm a little crestfallen that dream is dead.

Nearly dead. We still have a chance at Stutzle. Every year I see "no way <insert player> drops past <insert pick>" and every year people are shocked when it happens. This year probably has the most controversy at #2 that we've seen in some time. Also, many analysts/scouts have either Byfield or Stutzle outside the top 3. Finally, when is the draft actually happening? We might see these kids play more by that time, which could shake stuff up further.

 

[The Zetterberg Era]

Seems that Perfetti scored more points in games he was a center, than when he was a winger. That's interesting. Just went through that game-by-game data and separated games where he had a lots of faceoffs of games where had just small amount of faceoffs. Less production and more assist-weighted stats on games with less faceoffs (potentially winger).

Maybe I am reading this wrong, but he scored more when at center and the last part seems to disagree... Didn't or am I just having a moment?

 

[Fil Larkmanthanasiou]

I think Lundell will be an elite 2C or good 1C, depending where he goes. I definitely wouldn't reach for Lundell at #4, but I'd take him any day over Perfetti.

I have real concerns about Perfetti's skating; it's a mess for a top prospect. I can't see many pro coaches being comfortable with him being a 1C considering his mediocre mobility and how it affects his defensive game. He could bust because of it. I'd much rather we steer clear of that, especially with Raymond, Rossi, Holtz or Drysdale on the board (although, not sure we need a RD). Plus he doesn't really mesh with the Yzerplan. He's probably the slowest, lowest energy/pace player of the top prospects.

"He wants a skilled, fast team with guys who can play with pace, who have a foundation of skill, skating and hockey sense. It doesn’t matter if you’re big or small, Russian, American, Swede. As long as you could play fast-paced, skilled hockey, you would be on our list and if you were the next guy on our list, we would pick you..." - Julien BriseBois on Yzerman

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q ... B9_OF7J545

"has the ability to play the game with pace and to play fast and execute and make decisions,” said one NHL team scout."
And when you factor in Yzerman's emphasis on character, competitiveness and desire, I am pretty sure this is going to be our pick. I hope so.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct.../1541178001/&usg=AOvVaw01WlmDR-mUOVHtRYFWYkSD
“Yzerman has been pretty strict – he wants competitive players,” Andersson said. “So, there are no dogs."


​

 

[Rzombo4 prez]

Too small. He might surprise, but I'd rather not gamble on that.

yeah, I don't get the Andrae fascination at all. There isn't much room in the NHL game for 5'9" defensemen with less-than-elite skating.

 

[Voodoo Glow Skulls]

yeah, I don't get the Andrae fascination at all. There isn't much room in the NHL game for 5'9" defensemen with less-than-elite skating.

Hey, he could be Krug.

Or he can be one of thousands busts at his size.