Who Wins The Conn Smythe Trophy?

[Fledgemyhedge]

A .906 isn’t stopping a historic season from winning the smythe.

 

[Jumptheshark]

If it goes 7 McDavid if it goes 6 Bob or Barkov

 

[ORRFForever]

The betting lines feel it is McDavid by a large margin.

2024 Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

Player	Odds
Connor McDavid (Edmonton)	-200
Aleksander Barkov (Florida)	+300
Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida)	+750
Matthew Tkachuk (Florida)	+3000
Evan Bouchard (Edmonton)	+30000
Evan Rodrigues (Florida)	+30000
Zach Hyman (Edmonton)	+50000

https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/conn-smythe-trophy-odds

I am NOT a gambler but I understand that means 66.7% of the time, Connor is expected to win.

 

[Fledgemyhedge]

2024 Conn Smythe Trophy Odds

Player	Odds
Connor McDavid (Edmonton)	-200
Aleksander Barkov (Florida)	+300
Sergei Bobrovsky (Florida)	+750
Matthew Tkachuk (Florida)	+3000
Evan Bouchard (Edmonton)	+30000
Evan Rodrigues (Florida)	+30000
Zach Hyman (Edmonton)	+50000

https://www.oddsshark.com/nhl/conn-smythe-trophy-odds

Draisaitls fall is the craziest for me. Hope he can figure it out for the last couple of games

 

[ORRFForever]

Draisaitls fall is the craziest for me. Hope he can figure it out for the last couple of games

Amen to that. He has disappeared.

 

[tabness]

the face of NHL sports gambling degeneracy favorite to win a loser trophy... quaint

 

[DitchMarner]

If Barkov doesn't have a huge closing-game performance and he wins the Conn Smythe, it'll be one of the weaker wins for a forward the last 30 years or so.

He'd basically be in the Nieuwendyk/Williams/Crosby 2016 group of winners. Maybe as good as Richards/O'Rielly/Marchessault at best.

It's hard to imagine a forward performance of this calibre being awarded the CS over a 42 (or more) point performance. I think it can happen, but it'll look very bad if he doesn't significantly outperform McDavid in the last game.

Bobrovsky would be about a Ward level winner, I guess. Unless he has a great closing game (and wins), it won't be a good look, either, if he gets the Smythe.

If McDavid has a strong Game Six and gets at least two points, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not awarded the Conn Smythe.

 

[nturn06]

If Panthers win its Bob for me. Bennett is making a case for himself but even with a couple of iffy outings, Bob's been amazing through the playoffs.

If Oilers win its McDavid. If they push it to a game 7 and McDavid shines in the final two games (especially if he challenged more records) then he may steal it.

But again for me it's still Bob if Florida wins it.

But Igor had better GAA and SV%, how can you argue that Bob was the best goalie, let alone bets player?

 

[Fataldogg]

If Barkov doesn't have a huge closing-game performance and he wins the Conn Smythe, it'll be one of the weaker wins for a forward the last 30 years or so.

He'd basically be in the Nieuwendyk/Williams/Crosby 2016 group of winners. Maybe as good as Richards/O'Rielly/Marchessault at best.

It's hard to imagine a forward performance of this calibre being awarded the CS over a 42 (or more) point performance. I think it can happen, but it'll look very bad if he doesn't significantly outperform McDavid in the last game.

Bobrovsky would be about a Ward level winner, I guess. Unless he has a great closing game (and wins), it won't be a good look, either, if he gets the Smythe.

If McDavid has a strong Game Six and gets at least two points, it's hard to imagine a scenario where he's not awarded the Conn Smythe.

I don't even think that. I believe Cam Ward was a .920 when the Hurricanes won. Other goalies like Thomas and Quick have won it with above .940. Vasilevskiy I believe was a .937 when he won.

This is why I keep saying a .906 isn't getting you a Conn Smythe. Cam Ward has the lowest SV% of a goalie who won the Conn Smythe since 05-06 and it was a .920.

 

[Three On Zero]

@Three On Zero takes it by a landslide IMO

 

[SmytheKing]

I don't even think that. I believe Cam Ward was a .920 when the Hurricanes won. Other goalies like Thomas and Quick have won it with above .940. Vasilevskiy I believe was a .937 when he won.

This is why I keep saying a .906 isn't getting you a Conn Smythe. Cam Ward has the lowest SV% of a goalie who won the Conn Smythe since 05-06 and it was a .920.

Yup. If it was a sweep and he stood on his head in Game 4, he probably wins it regardless. There's recency bias at play and a narrative that would have elevated him. That's one of the reasons Williams won it in 2014. But with two straight mediocre games, you'd have to evaluate him through the whole playoffs and it just wouldn't be enough.

It's Barkov or McDavid and I think Barkov would have to have two phenomenal games with a huge Game 7 while McDavid inexplicably disappears for both of them for Barkov to win.

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

McDavid, doesn't matter the outcome.

- Cats fan

 

[Mike C]

McDavid, doesn't matter the outcome.

- Cats fan

He went fromn +600 before last game to -225 now.

 

[Little Bobby Boo]

He went fromn +600 before last game to -225 now.

should have been the front runner the entire time. dude is breaking history and dragging his team toward game 7 of the cup final. Would be insane to give it to anyone else.

 

[FDBluth]

Yup. If it was a sweep and he stood on his head in Game 4, he probably wins it regardless. There's recency bias at play and a narrative that would have elevated him. That's one of the reasons Williams won it in 2014. But with two straight mediocre games, you'd have to evaluate him through the whole playoffs and it just wouldn't be enough.

It's Barkov or McDavid and I think Barkov would have to have two phenomenal games with a huge Game 7 while McDavid inexplicably disappears for both of them for Barkov to win.

Barkov needs to score like at least 5 goals in the next 2 games and McDavid virtually be shut out to have any kind of chance. McDavid is doubling him in points.

 

[norrisnick]

I don't even think that. I believe Cam Ward was a .920 when the Hurricanes won. Other goalies like Thomas and Quick have won it with above .940. Vasilevskiy I believe was a .937 when he won.

This is why I keep saying a .906 isn't getting you a Conn Smythe. Cam Ward has the lowest SV% of a goalie who won the Conn Smythe since 05-06 and it was a .920.

Also can't forget that a very significant component of Ward's Conn Smythe is that he wasn't the Canes' starter opening the playoffs. Taking over for Gerber who fell apart in the first round was huge.

 

[Mr Positive]

McDavid has the best narrative by far because he broke the Gretzky record.
Losing teams have won it before. Plus he has the best performance overall in this series, offensively and defensively

 

[Buck Naked]

Draisaitls fall is the craziest for me. Hope he can figure it out for the last couple of games

The guy is suffering out there. He's probably not gonna figure anything out because he's doing what he can with the injuries.

 

[Video Nasty]

Still laughing at this thread, where I caught some flak for posting that Draisaitl needed to prove it in the SCF before being anointed as one of the "best in history" of the playoffs:

Leon Draisaitl is one of the best playoff performers in NHL history

What this man has been able to do in the playoffs is nothing short of legendary. He's #2 all time in playoff points per game, trailing only Wayne Gretzky. (58 game sample size at the time of this posting). Yes, he's ahead of both Lemieux and McDavid. His career regular season PPG is 1.18. His...

forums.hfboards.com

He’s been playing injured.

 

[matsqq]

mcDavid might get the Conn Smythe - also as a consolation if he doesn't win the Stanley Cup.

I know that's not how it's supposed to go down - but I think this will happen regardless.

And he is by far the best player in the playoffs ...

 

[General Fanager]

if it was me its McDavid win or lose but its probably him or Barkov depending on who wins.

 

[Felidae]

Pretty objective analysis of game 5.

 

[centipede2233]

I’ll give you a list of all players who have back to back 4 pt games in the finals in NHL history

1. Mcdavid

Thats it

 

[Frank Drebin]

the face of NHL sports gambling degeneracy favorite to win a loser trophy... quaint

Here is a reaction. Have a good one.

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

He’s been playing injured.

Since game 2 against Dallas? That's a reach. He plays alot of hockey for someone injured that much. Not like more than half of both rosters are probably have some injuries at this point.