Who is the best Goalie Prospect in Hockey?

[Yepthatsme]

Seems like you're purely stats watching which usually doesn't tell you much about goalies especially if you, like you just did, ignore experience and competition.

Wolf is just about to finish his 2nd pro season so we're talking about a very small sample size.

Also, when looking at the potential of these goalies, Askarov and Wallstedt are at least a tier above the rest because they've got better technique and mobility despite being bigger.

Now unfortunately for goalies, talent and being big doesn't mean much if you can't get your head and all the little details right. Playing in the NHL is a different animal than playing in other leagues as well.

Still, from where we stand now, Askarov and Wallstedt are in a tier of their own which is also why they were drafted earlier than goalies normally would.

Now, the problem with Askarov is that his positioning is awful. He's also very inconsistent, doesn't always track the puck well and gets rattled far too quickly which is why it's entirely possible that, despite his talent, he never really sticks in the NHL or he's gonna be a backup behind guys like Wolf or Levi. You never know with goalies before they actually played a few NHL seasons. They're voodoo and talent alone does only get you so far.

So while it's entirely possible you're right about Wolf for me and for now, Wallstedt is clearly ahead of the rest. He's also far more experienced and proven than for example Wolf who mostly played against kids.

Wolf is about to be the first goalie in AHL history to have consecutive goalie of the year awards. Calling two seasons of AHL dominance to this extreme “a very small sample size” is a bit disingenuous.

 

[Osakahaus]

He’s a year older and he won AHL goalie of the year… last year. When he was still eligible for the WHL. I’d be pretty shocked is he isn’t named league MVP this year. All that after the best statistical WHL career, ever.

He’s the next Fox/Gaudreau. Much like those two what he’s done is historic, not great.

Shesterkin, Saros, Wolf, Hofer, Levi. The goalie position is going small.

Igor is 6'1 though. Not hulking but still a big boy

 

[theslatcher]

Igor is 6'1 though. Not hulking but still a big boy

Not a big boy in regards to goalies.

 

[hyd3nSeek]

I honestly expected Wolf to be on top here. It has been a bit of head scratcher why he hasn't been given a chance to steal the job from Markström and Vladar. At least I feel that he could give better chance to win right now but what do I know. I'm not sure if it's the waivers (Vladar/Markström) and the whole Flames situation in general the reason why he isn't already there.
His numbers suggests that he shouldn't be in the AHL when next season starts.

 

[wetcoast]

Levi is gonna take the league by storm.

When is he actually going to play his first pro game?

 

[Yepthatsme]

Igor is 6'1 though. Not hulking but still a big boy

That’s definitely not a big boy by goalie standards. Regardless, Shesterkin at 6’1, Georgiev at 6’1”, Saros at 5’11” are all top ten in wins this season amongst goalies. Wolf being 6’0” isn’t nearly as much a detriment as people make it out to be. It can definitely be a detractor from goalies being successful, but the goalies who are already putting up amazing performances shouldn’t have it listed as a negative. Junior players and AHL players haven’t found it easier to score on Wolf due to his height, don’t really understand how people think that’ll be different in the NHL.

 

[Hinterland]

Wolf is about to be the first goalie in AHL history to have consecutive goalie of the year awards. Calling two seasons of AHL dominance to this extreme “a very small sample size” is a bit disingenuous.

That's a cool story but two years are nothing of a sample size for goalies. Binnington played quite a few impressive games in the NHL and managed to win a cup before getting figured out. On the other side we saw years of mediocre play from Joonas Korpisalo before he finally lived up to his potential.

Wallstedt has an additional year of pro hockey under his belt despite being more than 1,5 years younger.

Also, the AHL is a league where being on the right team is everything for goalies to have good stats. That's also why many "AHL top goalies" never stick in the NHL.

Again, it's possible Wolf turns out to be the best goalies of this group. We just simply don't know. He doesn't have the highest upside though and right now I think Wallstedt is clearly ahead of the rest.

 

[Yepthatsme]

That's a cool story but two years are nothing of a sample size for goalies. Binnington played quite a few impressive games in the NHL and managed to win a cup before getting figured out. On the other side we saw years of mediocre play from Joonas Korpisalo before he finally lived up to his potential.

Wallstedt has an additional year of pro hockey under his belt despite being more than 1,5 years younger.

Also, the AHL is a league where being on the right team is everything for goalies to have good stats. That's also why many "AHL top goalies" never stick in the NHL.

Again, it's possible Wolf turns out to be the best goalies of this group. We just simply don't know. He doesn't have the highest upside though and right now I think Wallstedt is clearly ahead of the rest.

An “additional year of hockey experience” playing at a .907 in the SHL. Wallstedt doesn’t have a year in his entire playing career with a save percentage as high as Wolf’s worst season to date. If you think Wolf’s track record is too short, you can just look at his previous 2 seasons before them, where he also won WHL goalie of the year twice consecutively.

Also if you think Wolf is being propped up by his AHL teams play, can you explain why is backups this year have played .500 hockey at just above or below a .900 save percentage? 4 of his 6 regular defenseman are AHL rookies or sophomores with no first round picks to speak of. Wolf very much carries a team that’s known for its offense and not defense. If you want more evidence, just look at this GSAA chart.

 

[Hinterland]

An “additional year of hockey experience” playing at a .907 in the SHL. Wallstedt doesn’t have a year in his entire playing career with a save percentage as high as Wolf’s worst season to date. If you think Wolf’s track record is too short, you can just look at his previous 2 seasons before them, where he also won WHL goalie of the year twice consecutively.

Also if you think Wolf is being propped up by his AHL teams play, can you explain why is backups this year have played .500 hockey at just above or below a .900 save percentage? 4 of his 6 regular defenseman are AHL rookies or sophomores with no first round picks to speak of. Wolf very much carries a team that’s known for its offense and not defense. If you want more evidence, just look at this GSAA chart.

You're way too focused on stats rather than actual performance or talent/upside. The leagues Wolf played in, the team you play for is key to have good stats. The SHL is way more competitive and deep so you're comparing apples and oranges.

 

[Yepthatsme]

You're way too focused on stats rather than actual performance or talent/upside. The leagues Wolf played in, the team you play for is key to have good stats. The SHL is way more competitive and deep so you're comparing apples and oranges.

I like to use stats because peoples eye tests vary wildly due to confirmation bias and their own personal preferences. I can tell you you the specific details of why I like Wolf’s game better, then you’ll tell me the specific details of why you believe Wallstedt’s game is inherently better.

If the SHL is so much more competitive and deep, then why did Wallstedt’s numbers drop across the board as he jumped to the AHL? He went from a winning record to a losing one, while his save percentage and GAA average dropped dramatically on a team with a winning record on the season. One of my favorite litmus tests for goalies is “ok but how well did their backup do?”. Really highlights goalies being carried by teams play, rather than overall talent. Here’s how Wolf and Wallstedt compare this season:

Wolf -wins at a .776 rate, 2.12 GAA, .931
Dansk -wins at a .461 rate, 2.84 GAA, .901

Wallstedt -wins at a .470 rate, 2.69 GAA, .910
McIntyre-wins at a .500 rate, 2.93 GAA, .899

Wolf collects wins at hilariously higher rates than his backup, allows .72 goals less per game, and has a .03 higher save percentage. Wallstedt on the other hand, loses more games than his backstop, but does allow .24 less goals per game and has a .01 higher save percentage.

A lot of this debate will be settled by how Wallstedt improves next season, but as of now he’s shown less than Wolf has after being drafted. He will be older than Wolf was in his rookie year while also having a year of AHL experience under his belt, but will have to contend with Wolf’s goalie of the year performance, a .924 save percentage, 2.35 GAA. All this while his backup had a 3.04 GAA and a .886 save percentage. I personally have my doubts Wallstedt’s performance comes close to those accomplishments.

 

[Hinterland]

I like to use stats because peoples eye tests vary wildly due to confirmation bias and their own personal preferences. I can tell you you the specific details of why I like Wolf’s game better, then you’ll tell me the specific details of why you believe Wallstedt’s game is inherently better.

If the SHL is so much more competitive and deep, then why did Wallstedt’s numbers drop across the board as he jumped to the AHL? He went from a winning record to a losing one, while his save percentage and GAA average dropped dramatically on a team with a winning record on the season. One of my favorite litmus tests for goalies is “ok but how well did their backup do?”. Really highlights goalies being carried by teams play, rather than overall talent. Here’s how Wolf and Wallstedt compare this season:

Wolf -wins at a .776 rate, 2.12 GAA, .931
Dansk -wins at a .461 rate, 2.84 GAA, .901

Wallstedt -wins at a .470 rate, 2.69 GAA, .910
McIntyre-wins at a .500 rate, 2.93 GAA, .899

Wolf collects wins at hilariously higher rates than his backup, allows .72 goals less per game, and has a .03 higher save percentage. Wallstedt on the other hand, loses more games than his backstop, but does allow .24 less goals per game and has a .01 higher save percentage.

A lot of this debate will be settled by how Wallstedt improves next season, but as of now he’s shown less than Wolf has after being drafted. He will be older than Wolf was in his rookie year while also having a year of AHL experience under his belt, but will have to contend with Wolf’s goalie of the year performance, a .924 save percentage, 2.35 GAA. All this while his backup had a 3.04 GAA and a .886 save percentage. I personally have my doubts Wallstedt’s performance comes close to those accomplishments.

If given a choice, would you rather backstop AHL Calgary or Iowa? If you think about that long enough you may understand what I was trying to tell you. The CHL is even worse in that regard where every year you have teams tanking hard. Say what you want about the SHL but it is a very deep and competitive league.

 

[GermanSpitfire]

If given a choice, would you rather backstop AHL Calgary or Iowa? If you think about that long enough you may understand what I was trying to tell you. The CHL is even worse in that regard where every year you have teams tanking hard. Say what you want about the SHL but it is a very deep and competitive league.

No ”tanking” in that league. If you’re bad you’re relegated which is a huge blow, and no team wants that.

 

[ZEBROA]

I like to use stats because peoples eye tests vary wildly due to confirmation bias and their own personal preferences. I can tell you you the specific details of why I like Wolf’s game better, then you’ll tell me the specific details of why you believe Wallstedt’s game is inherently better.

If the SHL is so much more competitive and deep, then why did Wallstedt’s numbers drop across the board as he jumped to the AHL? He went from a winning record to a losing one, while his save percentage and GAA average dropped dramatically on a team with a winning record on the season. One of my favorite litmus tests for goalies is “ok but how well did their backup do?”. Really highlights goalies being carried by teams play, rather than overall talent. Here’s how Wolf and Wallstedt compare this season:

Wolf -wins at a .776 rate, 2.12 GAA, .931
Dansk -wins at a .461 rate, 2.84 GAA, .901

Wallstedt -wins at a .470 rate, 2.69 GAA, .910
McIntyre-wins at a .500 rate, 2.93 GAA, .899

Wolf collects wins at hilariously higher rates than his backup, allows .72 goals less per game, and has a .03 higher save percentage. Wallstedt on the other hand, loses more games than his backstop, but does allow .24 less goals per game and has a .01 higher save percentage.

A lot of this debate will be settled by how Wallstedt improves next season, but as of now he’s shown less than Wolf has after being drafted. He will be older than Wolf was in his rookie year while also having a year of AHL experience under his belt, but will have to contend with Wolf’s goalie of the year performance, a .924 save percentage, 2.35 GAA. All this while his backup had a 3.04 GAA and a .886 save percentage. I personally have my doubts Wallstedt’s performance comes close to those accomplishments.

Wallstedt and his goaliecoach aint focusing on him being the best he can be right now- they are focusing on being the best he can be in the long run and learning the transatlantic way of hockey. So they are trying different aproches to find the best way together. I dont know if he will be better then Wolf. But he has to learn a new way of playing(and living) that Wolf never realy had to go through.

And Maby Mcintyre is better then Dansk. Or get to meet worse teams. It is a lot to take in account. Like u said Next year might tell us more.

 

[A1LeafNation]

He’s a year older and he won AHL goalie of the year… last year. When he was still eligible for the WHL. I’d be pretty shocked is he isn’t named league MVP this year. All that after the best statistical WHL career, ever.

He’s the next Fox/Gaudreau. Much like those two what he’s done is historic, not great.

Shesterkin, Saros, Wolf, Hofer, Levi. The goalie position is going small.

Isn't Hofer 6'5...

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

No one said that, that’s your own insecurity.

I think Akira Schmid is the best goalie prospect in the NHL

I'm legit curious if Schmid is part Japanese or if his parents are just weebs lmao.

 

[madmike77]

Wolf has 22 more wins the Wallstedt this year, 14 more than Askarov. He has the better GAA, the better SV%, the better GSAA. He's been better by every metric at the same level of competition after winning AHL Goaltender of the Year the year prior, the CHL and WHL Goaltender of the Year the year before that, and the WHL Goaltender of the Year the year before that.

He is 3rd in this poll why exactly?
Explain it to me like I'm 10 years old.

The only knock on Wolf is his frame, which is why he dropped to the 7th round. Until he proves he can win in the NHL some people are going to doubt him. He's made me a believer though.

 

[Stony Curtis]

Lol. You guys are talking about young goalies. That's adorable. Just don't ever try to project them. I did that once and ended up in a Guatemalan insane asylum.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

1.5 and why isn't wallstedt doing what Wolfie did a year ago

Wallstedt probably isn’t as good of an AHL Goalie as Wolfie

 

[madmike77]

Lol. You guys are talking about young goalies. That's adorable. Just don't ever try to project them. I did that once and ended up in a Guatemalan insane asylum.

The Flames have been particularly awful at drafting and developing goalies. The last one they successfully drafted and developed themselves is likely Mike Vernon - back in the 80s. They’ve drafted plenty of goalies since then and almost all have failed (Roloson and Anderson did have success in other organizations).

 

[Tufted Titmouse]

We created a U23 team in the summer, Wallstedt was the clear winner (imagine Knight is gradutated). I still agree with that.

STARTER

Spencer Knight - 21

BACKUP

Jesper Wallstedt - 19

The reserve team had:

GOALIES

Yaroslav Askarov - 20

Dustin Wolf - 21

Devon Levi - 20

 

[abo9]

Seems like you're purely stats watching which usually doesn't tell you much about goalies especially if you, like you just did, ignore experience and competition.

Wolf is just about to finish his 2nd pro season so we're talking about a very small sample size.

Also, when looking at the potential of these goalies, Askarov and Wallstedt are at least a tier above the rest because they've got better technique and mobility despite being bigger.

Now unfortunately for goalies, talent and being big doesn't mean much if you can't get your head and all the little details right. Playing in the NHL is a different animal than playing in other leagues as well.

Still, from where we stand now, Askarov and Wallstedt are in a tier of their own which is also why they were drafted earlier than goalies normally would.

Now, the problem with Askarov is that his positioning is awful. He's also very inconsistent, doesn't always track the puck well and gets rattled far too quickly which is why it's entirely possible that, despite his talent, he never really sticks in the NHL or he's gonna be a backup behind guys like Wolf or Levi. You never know with goalies before they actually played a few NHL seasons. They're voodoo and talent alone does only get you so far.

So while it's entirely possible you're right about Wolf for me and for now, Wallstedt is clearly ahead of the rest. He's also far more experienced and proven than for example Wolf who mostly played against kids.

Ok so I agree that goalie stats don't usually mean much, especially in a vacuum. That's why I like this site, to get people's opinions, people who actually watched the games of the players being discussed. But, in this case, did Wolf play exclusively for really really strong teams his whole career (juniors and AHL)? That's what I'm personally trying to understand.

And thank you for bringing your assessment, it's awesome to understand the strengths and weaknesses of Askarov particularly better (you didn't really talk about Wallstedt or Wolf).

That said, I disagree entirely with the conclusion. A solid, almost flawless to flawless technique is pretty easy to teach and learn. What differentiate the better goalies are their mental games and ability to read the play (aka positioning), and that's much more esoteric to learn late.

Askarov not being able to track the puck well, being rattled quickly, bad positioning actually seems like extremely bad red flags.

Further, someone else right after you kinda confirmed that its not just you who thinks so:

Wallstedt was drafted two years after Wolf, and Askarov one. Comparing Wallstedt’s numbers to current Wolf isn’t overtly fair considering Wolf wasn’t even in the AHL at that point in his development.

To your point though, Wolf’s numbers last year crush Askarov’s this year. Lots of people are going off the projectabilty of a 6’3” goalie with Askarov’s athleticism over Wolf’s more diminutive stature (6’0”, taller than Saros) and less flashy style. I’ve always been more of a contrarian on this standpoint though. The flashy style and big saves people fawn over usually signal that a goalie is out of position more often than others and has to scramble to make saves. Wolf just seems to read plays phenomenally well and is just always ready for the next shot he faces. He is also a sponge when it comes to rebound control which is a phenomenal trait for a goalie. If we are being honest too, lots of people aren’t capable of looking much past draft position either.

This less flashy style I’ve found leads to a lot of people mis-attributing credit to the goalie. You’ll hear people complain instead about the shooter like “Can’t believe he shot it right at the crest” or even complaints about the goalie like “He never seems to make the big save”. Goalies who are fantastic positionally are often under appreciated, Wolf just has the numbers that people can’t ignore.

It seems like most comments about Askarov go in the same sense. Bad positioning, flashy and athletic to compensate. That doesn't bode well.

So, at the NHL level, who do would have them most potential? Certainly not the guy who has troubles reading the play at lower levels...

Doesn't say much about Wallstedt, but comments about Askarov all seem to point in the same direction: Imo he'll fall flat in the NHL. I hope not though, I love me some amazing goaltending.

 

[staveNsteel]

Yeah i was just astounded by Askarov's it factor at the World Juniors.

He's talented, but so is Samsonov. I want to see some ability to dominate and he's just not showing it.

Where isn't he showing it? I've watched 15-20 of his games in Milwaukee this season. Watch him play a game.. he's aggressive in his style, and he doesn't look like the Carey Price, typical robo-goalie (and I'm a huge fan of Price), who plays that calm and cool style - Wallstedt has a similar demeanor. If you're comparing the two stylistically, it's easy to argue that Wallstedt looks like he "has it together."

With Askarov's aggressive style, his mobility and his ability to track the puck in motion, it's easy to see the confidence in his abilities, and it is just as difficult to play against. His high glove hand is probably his weakest point, but he tracks the puck very well and looks great in his first AHL season, and first North American season at that.

Askarov not being able to track the puck well, being rattled quickly, bad positioning actually seems like extremely bad red flags.

It seems like most comments about Askarov go in the same sense. Bad positioning, flashy and athletic to compensate. That doesn't bode well.

So, at the NHL level, who do would have them most potential? Certainly not the guy who has troubles reading the play at lower levels...

Doesn't say much about Wallstedt, but comments about Askarov all seem to point in the same direction: Imo he'll fall flat in the NHL. I hope not though, I love me some amazing goaltending.

Like I said above, the people that are commenting on his poor positioning are more than likely not watching him play. He positions himself quite well. At times he could tone down the aggressiveness in the way he approaches the shooter, but it's also part of the style he uses, which catches a lot of players off guard.

Anyone that thinks he'll fall flat in the NHL, I can guarantee has either watched him very sparingly or is not a fan of his style, which differs from most goalies out there. It sets him apart from other goalies, is difficult to game plan against, and should actually fit Nashville's tight defensive system quite well.

 

[Hinterland]

Ok so I agree that goalie stats don't usually mean much, especially in a vacuum. That's why I like this site, to get people's opinions, people who actually watched the games of the players being discussed. But, in this case, did Wolf play exclusively for really really strong teams his whole career (juniors and AHL)? That's what I'm personally trying to understand.

And thank you for bringing your assessment, it's awesome to understand the strengths and weaknesses of Askarov particularly better (you didn't really talk about Wallstedt or Wolf).

That said, I disagree entirely with the conclusion. A solid, almost flawless to flawless technique is pretty easy to teach and learn. What differentiate the better goalies are their mental games and ability to read the play (aka positioning), and that's much more esoteric to learn late.

Askarov not being able to track the puck well, being rattled quickly, bad positioning actually seems like extremely bad red flags.

Further, someone else right after you kinda confirmed that its not just you who thinks so:




It seems like most comments about Askarov go in the same sense. Bad positioning, flashy and athletic to compensate. That doesn't bode well.

So, at the NHL level, who do would have them most potential? Certainly not the guy who has troubles reading the play at lower levels...

Doesn't say much about Wallstedt, but comments about Askarov all seem to point in the same direction: Imo he'll fall flat in the NHL. I hope not though, I love me some amazing goaltending.

Yeah, Wolf played for good teams only. Everett was always strong when he was there and so is AHL Stockton/Calgary. Now you can say that it was him making the team better but that's only true to a certain extent. Wolf played on good teams in leagues with no relegation and a certain lack of depth which means that many games just aren't competitive. Now such games sometimes can be tricky for goalies as well and it's not Wolf's fault he played for good to overpowered teams only. Still, it's important to understand his stats.

Also, I never said that I like Askarov better than Wolf. For me, just Wallstedt is a few tiers above the rest in this poll. I just said that Askarov has higher upside than Wolf. That doesn't mean Wolf can't have a nice NHL career or can't turn out to be better than Askarov.

Having said that, the one thing you can't teach is size. I believe in today's NHL if you wanna be a franchise goalie for years, at 6'0 that's tough to impossible to do. Those days are over now that you have 6'4 or bigger guys like Andrei Vasilevskiy or Spencer Knight moving just as well and being just as explosive as 5'10 Juuse Saros. That doesn't mean smaller guys can still be starter in the NHL because obviously what happens between the ears is at least as important as size, movement and technique but big guys like Askarov moving so well does give them a clear advantage and as a smaller guy you have to work way harder not to get figured out. You also have to find other ways to set yourself apart from the bigger guys now that the big guys are such athletes. Much like for example Shesterkin, Wolf does that. Nowadays, smaller goalies have to be active puck movers and they have to better between the ears which includes mental strenght, consistency, keeping track of pucks etc.

Askarov (and Wallstedt to a lesser extent) from what I see actually have better explosiveness and mobility than Wolf. Askarov obviously has other issues we already discussed but I disagree it isn't teachable (learnable). It's gonna be tough for Askarov because lately, little to no progress is visible but sometimes that's just how it goes with goalies. My countryman Akira Schmid was hyped as the next big thing and I liked him a lot as a kid. Internationally he was always brutal though and at club level he seemed to stagnate for years as well but all of a sudden, when the goalie depth in the Devils organization was put to the test, Schmid was there standing on his head and hasn't looked back since. Goalies are voodoo. You never know what you got until they played a couple of NHL seasons at the very least and even the most shaky and inconsistent goalie can suddenly put it all together.

 

[ChickenDinner]

It is hard to deny what Wolf has done since being drafted. Almost wasn't drafted at all. I take consistent measurable actions over internet generated hype.

 

[Hinterland]

Yeah i was just astounded by Askarov's it factor at the World Juniors.

He's talented, but so is Samsonov. I want to see some ability to dominate and he's just not showing it.

You mean by him continously losing his stick?

You can like Askarov or not but he's never been good at WJC's...at least not consistently.