Who does LA pick #2

[BigKing]

Pick224 breaks down points in many leagues. DEL isn't one, though:
Pick224 - Hockey Prospect Stats

Even Strength:
A1 - 23
A2 - 9

Power play:
A1 - 11
A2 - 5

Short handed:
A1 - 2
A2 - 2

In total: 36 primary assists, 16 secondary

Edit: that doesn't add up, though. As he had only 50 assists? Did I misread a row?

He "only" had 50 assists. 32 goals for 82 points in 45 games. They are off a bit.

*EDIT* You gave him two secondary SH assists. He didn't have any of those.

Really liking that ratio of primary to secondary assists. 24 EV goals v. 6 PP goals is nice as well. I wouldn't expect him to run point on an NHL PP though so I could see that ratio changing as he gets to shoot from more dangerous spots on the ice.

 

[King'sPawn]

He "only" had 50 assists. 32 goals for 82 points in 45 games. They are off a bit.

*EDIT* You gave him two secondary SH assists. He didn't have any of those.

Really liking that ratio of primary to secondary assists. 24 EV goals v. 6 PP goals is nice as well. I wouldn't expect him to run point on an NHL PP though so I could see that ratio changing as he gets to shoot from more dangerous spots on the ice.

Thank you. I knew I must have misread it somewhere. Was looking through my phone.

For reference, please note while I said "only" 50 assists, that wasn't a remark against him. I meant it was different relative to the numbers I posted. Like, my numbers totaled up to 52 when he "only" (or maybe I should have just said "actually") scored 50. Just wanted to clear that up.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

I hope we pick Maximilian in the later rounds just so he can skate around after any teammate scores a goal with his hands in the air saying, "Are you not entertained!"

…….well that and the fact that he is a 6'2", 198 lb. LHD that was the highest scoring U18 defenseman in his league and he helped capture a Division A title at last years IIHF U18's.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Son of.

 

[psych3man]

dit: that doesn't add up, though. As he had only 50 assists? Did I misread a row?

SH A2 = 0

(whoops, Pawn's wasn't posted when I did this...sorry)

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

I think the idea being spread that Byfield had a disappointing season is actually Byfield didn't have a spectacular World Juniors, and that's 99.9% of what people base their entire opinion of prospects on.

 

[The Lukeman]

Thought it would be useful, so I took all of Tim Stutzle's raw data from DEL's website. Took a couple hours but here is a google sheet. Will add some analysis onto it later. This doc has all of Stutzle's points, shots on goal, shifts, and ice time. I had to watch about 3 hours of Stutzle highlights to get everything. He is a great prospect no doubt. Also listed notes of both positives and negatives on many of his highlights that day.

Tim Stutzle Raw Data:
Google Sheet

Notably, 38% of Stutzle's points came on the power play, and 62% of Stutzle's total points were primary goals and assists. Comparatively, Byfield had 26% of his points come on the power play, and 83% of his points are primary points.

Tim Stutzle Zone Starts:
55% of Stutzle's starts were in the offensive zone.
26% of his starts were in the neutral zone.
18.5% were in the defensive zone.

Also something not talked about: Stutzle had ZERO time on the penalty kill. I could not find a single shift with him out there.

Also, thanks to @SwedeChristoffer for sending me some links to advanced stats for European players. Will make a breakdown but it can give us a good comparison between Raymond and Stutzle.

He "only" had 50 assists. 32 goals for 82 points in 45 games. They are off a bit.

*EDIT* You gave him two secondary SH assists. He didn't have any of those.

Really liking that ratio of primary to secondary assists. 24 EV goals v. 6 PP goals is nice as well. I wouldn't expect him to run point on an NHL PP though so I could see that ratio changing as he gets to shoot from more dangerous spots on the ice.

Byfield led the OHL in Goals scored per 60, primary assists per 60, and primary points per 60 in the OHL. He is #1 in the CHL (OHL, WHL, or QMJHL) in primary assists scored per 60. He is 2nd in all of the CHL in Goals per 60 only behind Lafreniere. HE WAS #1 IN PRIMARY POINTS PER 60 AND THIS IS DESPITE BYFIELD BEING 8TH IN PP POINTS per 60!!!!! (Data from Drafting Hockey aka HockeyPC on Patreon).

The fact that Byfield is outpacing Lafreniere in some of these categories. Byfield is closer to #1 than #3 is to him. I stand behind it and the data.

Sorry bold and caps. Im excited because he was outproducing in some situations despite lower PP point projections.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Thought it would be useful, so I took all of Tim Stutzle's raw data from DEL's website. Took a couple hours but here is a google sheet. Will add some analysis onto it later. This doc has all of Stutzle's points, shots on goal, shifts, and ice time. I had to watch about 3 hours of Stutzle highlights to get everything. He is a great prospect no doubt. Also listed notes of both positives and negatives on many of his highlights that day.

Tim Stutzle Raw Data:
Google Sheet

Notably, 38% of Stutzle's points came on the power play, and 62% of Stutzle's total points were primary goals and assists. Comparatively, Byfield had 26% of his points come on the power play, and 83% of his points are primary points.

Tim Stutzle Zone Starts:
55% of Stutzle's starts were in the offensive zone.
26% of his starts were in the neutral zone.
18.5% were in the defensive zone.

Also something not talked about: Stutzle had ZERO time on the penalty kill. I could not find a single shift with him out there.

Also, thanks to @SwedeChristoffer for sending me some links to advanced stats for European players. Will make a breakdown but it can give us a good comparison between Raymond and Stutzle.



Byfield led the OHL in Goals scored per 60, primary assists per 60, and primary points per 60 in the OHL. He is #1 in the CHL (OHL, WHL, or QMJHL) in primary assists scored per 60. He is 2nd in all of the CHL in Goals per 60 only behind Lafreniere. HE WAS #1 IN PRIMARY POINTS PER 60 AND THIS IS DESPITE BYFIELD BEING 8TH IN PP POINTS per 60!!!!! (Data from Drafting Hockey aka HockeyPC on Patreon).

The fact that Byfield is outpacing Lafreniere in some of these categories. Byfield is closer to #1 than #3 is to him. I stand behind it and the data.

Sorry bold and caps. Im excited because he was outproducing in some situations despite lower PP point projections.

Wow, what a post. Really appreciate the digging.

 

[cyclones22]

Damn it I was already a pretty big Byfield lean but thanks to Lukeman I'm probably going to be really annoyed if the Kings select Stutzle. I'm sure they have all the numbers that we've all seen on both sides of the fence because I've seen Kings presentation research and it's a ridiculous amount of information.

 

[The Lukeman]

Damn it I was already a pretty big Byfield lean but thanks to Lukeman I'm probably going to be really annoyed if the Kings select Stutzle. I'm sure they have all the numbers that we've all seen on both sides of the fence because I've seen Kings presentation research and it's a ridiculous amount of information.

I wouldn’t be angry if we took Stutzle, because I still do think he shows potential of a high end winger. If we drafted Stutzle, he would be our best prospect. But I believe Byfield is a much better prospect and will be disappointed.

People get caught up because of Stutzle’s flashiness and because he is playing in a men’s league (even though it’s the one of the weakest men’s league defensively). He is basically sheltered into playing only offensive minutes, posted a worse points per 60 than Lukas Raymond, who played in a harder league.

Yes he had the best rookie season in DEL history, there’s no denying there is a lot of value in that. But that doesn’t make him the best choice at 2.

If I had to grade from a scale of 0-100, where 100 is Connor McDavid or generational talent, I would say:
94 - Lafreniere
92- Byfield
90- anything above is Franchise level (top 5 in the league)
87- Raymond
86- Stutzle
84- Rossi, Drysdale
80 - anything above is elite (top 10% in the league)

Yes I am very high on Raymond. Watch his games, he isn’t talked about enough. He had better stats per 60 than Stutzle in a more difficult league. Had a better WJC. I will be mad if he slips to Anaheim and they get another steal in the draft.

Also when LA says they are looking at 2 guys, I’m fully convinced it’s Raymond and Byfield. Hoven said Raymond is a dark horse. I think there is some merit to it. We just assume it’s Byfield and Stutzle because everyone is following popular opinion. Often the “consensus” is not accurate to what teams are thinking.

 

[KINGS17]

Thought it would be useful, so I took all of Tim Stutzle's raw data from DEL's website. Took a couple hours but here is a google sheet. Will add some analysis onto it later. This doc has all of Stutzle's points, shots on goal, shifts, and ice time. I had to watch about 3 hours of Stutzle highlights to get everything. He is a great prospect no doubt. Also listed notes of both positives and negatives on many of his highlights that day.

Tim Stutzle Raw Data:
Google Sheet

Notably, 38% of Stutzle's points came on the power play, and 62% of Stutzle's total points were primary goals and assists. Comparatively, Byfield had 26% of his points come on the power play, and 83% of his points are primary points.

Tim Stutzle Zone Starts:
55% of Stutzle's starts were in the offensive zone.
26% of his starts were in the neutral zone.
18.5% were in the defensive zone.

Also something not talked about: Stutzle had ZERO time on the penalty kill. I could not find a single shift with him out there.

Also, thanks to @SwedeChristoffer for sending me some links to advanced stats for European players. Will make a breakdown but it can give us a good comparison between Raymond and Stutzle.



Byfield led the OHL in Goals scored per 60, primary assists per 60, and primary points per 60 in the OHL. He is #1 in the CHL (OHL, WHL, or QMJHL) in primary assists scored per 60. He is 2nd in all of the CHL in Goals per 60 only behind Lafreniere. HE WAS #1 IN PRIMARY POINTS PER 60 AND THIS IS DESPITE BYFIELD BEING 8TH IN PP POINTS per 60!!!!! (Data from Drafting Hockey aka HockeyPC on Patreon).

The fact that Byfield is outpacing Lafreniere in some of these categories. Byfield is closer to #1 than #3 is to him. I stand behind it and the data.

Sorry bold and caps. Im excited because he was outproducing in some situations despite lower PP point projections.

Thanks for digging all of this out. I was just going by the eye test. I am very impressed by the high percentage of even strength goals and primary assists scored by Byfield. It's the mark of a player who goes to the net and the middle of the ice hard.

 

[Steve Zissou]

Thanks for digging all of this out. I was just going by the eye test. I am very impressed by the high percentage of even strength goals and primary assists scored by Byfield. It's the mark of a player who goes to the net and the middle of the ice hard.

Everyone is so concerned with Byfield racking up points by scoring off the rush...

and I'm over here going, 'Well hell, The Kings hardly ever score on the rush!'

* Direction of the league is now built around speed
* New system put in place by TMAC
* Emergence of new, young blood coming into the organization

 

[Statto]

Thought it would be useful, so I took all of Tim Stutzle's raw data from DEL's website. Took a couple hours but here is a google sheet. Will add some analysis onto it later. This doc has all of Stutzle's points, shots on goal, shifts, and ice time. I had to watch about 3 hours of Stutzle highlights to get everything. He is a great prospect no doubt. Also listed notes of both positives and negatives on many of his highlights that day.

Tim Stutzle Raw Data:
Google Sheet

Notably, 38% of Stutzle's points came on the power play, and 62% of Stutzle's total points were primary goals and assists. Comparatively, Byfield had 26% of his points come on the power play, and 83% of his points are primary points.

Tim Stutzle Zone Starts:
55% of Stutzle's starts were in the offensive zone.
26% of his starts were in the neutral zone.
18.5% were in the defensive zone.

Also something not talked about: Stutzle had ZERO time on the penalty kill. I could not find a single shift with him out there.

Also, thanks to @SwedeChristoffer for sending me some links to advanced stats for European players. Will make a breakdown but it can give us a good comparison between Raymond and Stutzle.



Byfield led the OHL in Goals scored per 60, primary assists per 60, and primary points per 60 in the OHL. He is #1 in the CHL (OHL, WHL, or QMJHL) in primary assists scored per 60. He is 2nd in all of the CHL in Goals per 60 only behind Lafreniere. HE WAS #1 IN PRIMARY POINTS PER 60 AND THIS IS DESPITE BYFIELD BEING 8TH IN PP POINTS per 60!!!!! (Data from Drafting Hockey aka HockeyPC on Patreon).

The fact that Byfield is outpacing Lafreniere in some of these categories. Byfield is closer to #1 than #3 is to him. I stand behind it and the data.

Sorry bold and caps. Im excited because he was outproducing in some situations despite lower PP point projections.

I’d looked at some of this data for Byfield but hadn’t had the time (or motivation, if I’m honest) to compile it and look at it in this level of detail. Given his age and the poor side he played in, its part of why I’d take Byfield 1OA. It’s probably why I am so dismissive of the argument of Stützle at 2OA. It’s not because I think Stützle is a poor prospect, far from it, but because I rate Byfield so highly, and think he’s far closer to Lafreniere than Stützle. Whilst I think Stützle will justifiably go 3OA, it also wouldn’t surprise me if someone like Raymond went ahead of him.

NB: I think there’s also a chance Ottawa take Drysdale at 3OA so they get a top D prospect, whilst knowing that whichever forwards are left at #5 they will still get a good one. If that happens I think it will be a tactical decision to avoid losing Drysdale at #4 rather than a true reflection on ranking.

 

[regulate]

Yes I am very high on Raymond. Watch his games, he isn’t talked about enough. He had better stats per 60 than Stutzle in a more difficult league. Had a better WJC. I will be mad if he slips to Anaheim and they get another steal in the draft.

Also when LA says they are looking at 2 guys, I’m fully convinced it’s Raymond and Byfield. Hoven said Raymond is a dark horse. I think there is some merit to it. We just assume it’s Byfield and Stutzle because everyone is following popular opinion. Often the “consensus” is not accurate to what teams are thinking.

No one should be surprised if Raymond is very high on the Kings radar. Someone in the organization likely sees him play often given his two teammates, Samuel Fagemo and Jacob Moverare.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

People get caught up because of Stutzle’s flashiness and because he is playing in a men’s league (even though it’s the one of the weakest men’s league defensively). He is basically sheltered into playing only offensive minutes, posted a worse points per 60 than Lukas Raymond, who played in a harder league.

Yes he had the best rookie season in DEL history, there’s no denying there is a lot of value in that. But that doesn’t make him the best choice at 2.

Possibly but no matter what, they wont be giving PK minutes to a rookie in the DEL if there are better options. Talk about “being sheltered” while he is playing with men is wrong IMO.

Byfield is playing junior hockey and his numbers are looking great but now I get the feeling this is getting used against Stützle.

What Raymond is doing per 6o is irrelevant to me as well. I prefer Holtz over him but that doesnt make him the best choice at 2 either. Those are personal favorites.

 

[bland]

Thanks for digging all of this out. I was just going by the eye test. I am very impressed by the high percentage of even strength goals and primary assists scored by Byfield. It's the mark of a player who goes to the net and the middle of the ice hard.

... or is it the mark of being the only show in town?

 

[BigKing]

... or is it the mark of being the only show in town?

The counter to that would be if there were some decent opening acts to the Byfield Show, then his primary points percentage would go down but this would be due to a higher total point figure since Sudbury would be scoring more.

It's all positive to me: a 17 year old in the OHL had to be the man because he was the only show in town and he did it. The downside to this is that it can lead to a lack of offensive zone time and a lot more off-the-rush type of play. He can't just plan on playing this way at the NHL level and there isn't a lot of tape showing him working a cycle. I think there is a belief that half-court offense takes more thinking and a higher IQ than running a fast break which is a factor in the "Low IQ" arguments; however, you have to think extremely quick when running a fast break so I don't buy in to the belief that being good on the rush is like dumb jock type of stuff that just works because of pure skill.

I am all about him not being in the NHL next year though and I'd love for him to get traded to a stacked team where he can have more sustained offensive zone time.

 

[KINGS17]

... or is it the mark of being the only show in town?

Could be, but at least he shows up most nights to perform his role. Byfield drives to the net and is constantly looking to get to the middle to create offense. I like that about his game.

I think Byfield's ceiling is too high to pass on him.

 

[KINGS17]

The counter to that would be if there were some decent opening acts to the Byfield Show, then his primary points percentage would go down but this would be due to a higher total point figure since Sudbury would be scoring more.

It's all positive to me: a 17 year old in the OHL had to be the man because he was the only show in town and he did it. The downside to this is that it can lead to a lack of offensive zone time and a lot more off-the-rush type of play. He can't just plan on playing this way at the NHL level and there isn't a lot of tape showing him working a cycle. I think there is a belief that half-court offense takes more thinking and a higher IQ than running a fast break which is a factor in the "Low IQ" arguments; however, you have to think extremely quick when running a fast break so I don't buy in to the belief that being good on the rush is like dumb jock type of stuff that just works because of pure skill.

I am all about him not being in the NHL next year though and I'd love for him to get traded to a stacked team where he can have more sustained offensive zone time.

Yeah, here's a guy who ran a fast break in a different sport and probably had one of the highest IQs for his sport I have ever seen.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Possibly but no matter what, they wont be giving PK minutes to a rookie in the DEL if there are better options. Talk about “being sheltered” while he is playing with men is wrong IMO.

Byfield is playing junior hockey and his numbers are looking great but now I get the feeling this is getting used against Stützle.

What Raymond is doing per 6o is irrelevant to me as well. I prefer Holtz over him but that doesnt make him the best choice at 2 either. Those are personal favorites.

I agree it's unfair to 'hit' him for it as you can only play what you're given. Deployment is a coaching decision and highlights strengths in a good scenario.

However, when talking comparisons, you can't ignore it, either. We had these go rounds bigtime with Karlsson-Doughty threads. I was always careful to say you cant be mad at EK for offensive deployment, but you have to consider Drew's getting shorted some 'easy' minutes in favor of PK and defensive situations. In this instance, Byfield is Mr. Everything to Sudbury, Stutzle is the offensive catalyst for a powerhouse team. Do I think each could succeed in the others shoes? Absolutely to some degree, but it also highlights their prospective roles.

Re: Raymond, his per 60 is important because his playing time is artificially deflated. Again, can only play what's put in front of you, so it's fair to make projections as it is also fair to question if he'd be doing more with more minutes or less with more (harder) minutes.

The counter to that would be if there were some decent opening acts to the Byfield Show, then his primary points percentage would go down but this would be due to a higher total point figure since Sudbury would be scoring more.

It's all positive to me: a 17 year old in the OHL had to be the man because he was the only show in town and he did it. The downside to this is that it can lead to a lack of offensive zone time and a lot more off-the-rush type of play. He can't just plan on playing this way at the NHL level and there isn't a lot of tape showing him working a cycle. I think there is a belief that half-court offense takes more thinking and a higher IQ than running a fast break which is a factor in the "Low IQ" arguments; however, you have to think extremely quick when running a fast break so I don't buy in to the belief that being good on the rush is like dumb jock type of stuff that just works because of pure skill.

I am all about him not being in the NHL next year though and I'd love for him to get traded to a stacked team where he can have more sustained offensive zone time.

And this is why the questions of his consistency/intensity, though fair, show his ceiling. The guy absolutely crushed it on a mediocre team where he was THE guy--I get critiquing him for floating a bit and losing some awareness but consider his big minutes and shitty team vs. his maturity/age and I"m like...my god this guy is an absolute monster. The Malkin comp is totally fair if he were to maybe play fewer, more intense minutes.

 

[cyclones22]

Could be, but at least he shows up most nights to perform his role. Byfield drives to the net and is constantly looking to get to the middle to create offense. I like that about his game.

I think Byfield's ceiling is too high to pass on him.

Yep and it's not like he scored 32 goals on 9% shooting or some crap. The kid needs to shoot more! Byfield's got a great shot and release.

 

[kevsh]

If the Kings are really high on Raymond, what's the play? I can't see them taking him at #2 when no list I've seen has him ranked higher than 4th (THN is the only one I recall with him that high). Do they float the #2 to Ottawa assuming the Sens will drool at the idea of getting Byfield? Detroit?

 

[BigKing]

If the Kings are really high on Raymond, what's the play? I can't see them taking him at #2 when no list I've seen has him ranked higher than 4th (THN is the only one I recall with him that high). Do they float the #2 to Ottawa assuming the Sens will drool at the idea of getting Byfield? Detroit?

Yzerman doesn't care what any scouting reports are saying. Took Seider at #6 last year. It's all about his list and it could very well have Raymond at #3.

 

[The Lukeman]

If the Kings are really high on Raymond, what's the play? I can't see them taking him at #2 when no list I've seen has him ranked higher than 4th (THN is the only one I recall with him that high). Do they float the #2 to Ottawa assuming the Sens will drool at the idea of getting Byfield? Detroit?

If Mark Yannetti has Raymond at #2, I trust him. He is the smartest guy in hockey. I trust the best guy in the business instead of a bunch of sports writers. From what I've personally seen, Byfield is the BPA at 2. But remember I am no expert. My resume consists of me playing hockey for about 15 years, doing about 4 years of personal drafting research, and getting an A in my Stats class. Nothing makes my opinion worth more than an NHL scout. Just trying to make a case for my opinions.

 

[kevsh]

If Mark Yannetti has Raymond at #2, I trust him. He is the smartest guy in hockey. I trust the best guy in the business instead of a bunch of sports writers. From what I've personally seen, Byfield is the BPA at 2. But remember I am no expert. My resume consists of me playing hockey for about 15 years, doing about 4 years of personal drafting research, and getting an A in my Stats class. Nothing makes my opinion worth more than an NHL scout. Just trying to make a case for my opinions.

Actually, my mistake for not clarifying - My post was speculating what L.A. does with the #2 pick if they decide they want Raymond. Do they just take him then or consider moving down a spot or two expecting Ottawa/Detroit would jump at taking Byfield?

 

[Sol]

Aight, Byfield better start the season in the NHL