Who does LA pick #2

[Raccoon Jesus]

Yes, we are. The Kings are taking Nachfeld.

Maximilian Glötzl or bust!

 

[Rorschach]

For as shallow as they were I liked the old HF prospect rankings for this reason. I'd probably Put Laf at 9.0B, Byfield at 9.0D, and Stutzle at 8.5B.

Right and if you feel (as you stated above) that Byfield's overall is higher than Stutzle despite their potential to reach their full projection is the other way, then Byfield is the BPA that will just take longer.

For me, they are both 9.0 and both are centers to me as well, so I prefer Stutzle as my BPA. (Also, I think the grades are closer to A and B rather than B and D).

 

[Basilisk]

Kinnon

Thanks! I lot of times, I don't know what the Hell people are trying to say on message boards. And when they start using acronyms and then the acronyms have acronyms, that's when it's time to stop reading!!! LoL

 

[ricardfromage]

So, knowing how high you are on Rossi too--it strikes me as a little backwards that you rule QB out based on there aren't players that have done that at his height before, but don't rule Rossi out when there haven't been high end 5'9" centers drafted so high either. Brayden Point luckily bucked the trend but only recently and look how far he had to fall in the draft. The point is using only past precedent in a different league is dangerous thinking; but even then, I've never seen 'he's too big' to be a complaint, much less when one is that skilled.

And FWIW yes I was fighting for Rossi on the exact same basis, "no one's done it before" is a brutally terrible reason to not draft a player, especially when we're talking about literally not even a full inch (and depeding on where it was listed, literally a quarter inch--because I remember aruging with someone who wanted to to drop Rossi out of the top 10 because he was too small but was vouching for Perfetti being taken top 5, despite Rossi being listed at 5'9.5" and Perfetti 5"9.75"). It's a total fallacy because maybe Byfield is done putting on height, maybe Rossi ends up 6'0". And maybe an inch in either direction doesn't change their status as elite anyway.

Hell if we're putting people on DND for "no one's done it before" then Stutzle is just Marco Sturm 2.0 and why waste a high pick on him? No elite players have been drafted out of the DEL. And we should give Anze Kopitar back while we're at it.

Overall the point is everyone outside Laf carries degrees of risk and I feel like it's only the hyperanalysis of Byfield and Stutzle that's making people scared, I guarantee if Lafreniere weren't in the draft this year we'd be in a Hall/Seguin "neither guy has faults" situation.

I have never ever ruled QB out at all. I have said a bunch that he deserves to be in the top 3 and could very well become a special player. I have also said that if the Kings draft him I will be very happy and will still be holding my breath hoping that he pans out to be the dynamo that he is said to be rather than another oversized top 6 player. My point is that QB has a much higher risk/reward factor than Stutzle does imo.

IF QB becomes what his NA supporters believe he will then I will be very happy (as I have said) to be proven right about him. I am not arguing his potential, merely the risk involved in drafting him. There have been many others who where his size that where supposed to be 1st line players who either haven't yet or didn't make it in that role. Sure there are lots of others who are oversized and have proven themselves in the game but we are talking about the 2oa pick in a draft with many options, we also have a team that scouts the DEL quite heavily and are very familiar with Stutzle or so it has been said. IF our guys chose QB then they will have made the correct decision. IF they chose Rossi or Stutzle or Raymond or Drysdale or even Perfetti (fingers crossed we don't) then I have enough faith in them to know that they picked to best player who has the type of character that fits our system/team the best. I hope that makes better sense.

In regards to Rossi fleshing out at 5'10" (allegedly) there are loads and loads of other players his size who have dominated the NHL in the past and even presently. One of my all time favorites is Joe Sakic who was drafted with all of the same type of press and successes that Rossi has had and ended up being one of the best NHLers of all time. There are several others but my point is that smaller guys have had more success (as a group) then oversized players. That said I wouldn't draft Rossi at #2. I ranked him based on talent at the #2 spot and stand by that but he is one player that I can't reach out through contacts or any other means to and get a better feel of his character. As such he would be seen as the same exact type of gamble that QB would be. I believe in payoff especially within the top 5 picks of the draft. You have no room for error when picking that high up and even less in the top 3. QB may be the talented kid that he is said to be and may have all of the other qualities that make him a truly special player but like Rossi, there is some risk involved. Unlike Rossi QB's size "could" become a problem. That is my point. Stutzle at an average height is an elite talent. He could tank like Daigle or Yakupov etc but there isn't as much of a risk involved and he has proven himself to be a gifted player as a 17 year old playing in a league that many compare to the AHL in terms of competitive talent.

The DEL has produced several highly talented players in the past few years and I would say that most recently Leon Draisaitl is a good start. As to your points on size if Rossi ends up the size(s) you are saying then he still would be less of a risk (based on height) then an oversized player. Again though I am not saying that QB cannot become the next best thing that the Kings could ever have, I am saying that his size presents a higher risk then a slightly undersize player can. I am good with either Stutzle or QB but one of them is more of a project than the other.

 

[BigKing]

@ricardfromage

Draisaitl did not play in the DEL. He played in German juniors before going to the WHL.

Again, there isn't a real long list of draft eligible guys coming out of the DEL and the list we have is guys like Sturm and Goc.

You aren't wrong about Germany producing talented players recently, however. Seider played DEL last year and looks to be a solid defenseman, although it remains to be seen if he is worthy of the 6th overall selection but time will tell. This could be a "golden age" for German hockey with Stutzle being a key component of it.

Regardless, this is why it takes a leap of faith to be super impressed with Stutzle's numbers v. Byfield's as it is really hard to make historical comparisons for 18 year old draft eligible kids in the DEL.

 

[Rorschach]

Earlier, I stated this:
"I’ll give you some real numbers...he only scored 82 points in 45g last season. Other comparable CHL players in the same draft: Rossi 120 points in 56g, Lafreniere 112 points in 52g, Perfetti 111 points in 61g. Point is at the top of the draft, the guys are all scoring 110+ points in their draft season...QB not only was hurt, which is often a big ding in your juniors draft season traditionally, he was more on a 90 point pace...that doesn’t translate into 75 points in the NHL."

...and stated it rather poorly, after reading everyone's reactions and re-reading it myself.

What I should have said (and didn't) is that guys at the top of the draft like Rossi and Lafreniere are scoring at a 2+ ppg. Guys in the fourth tier (Laf being first, Stutzle and QB supposedly in the 2nd tier, Drysdale/Raymond in the 3rd tier and the other first rounders afterward being 4th and on, such as Perfetti) are scoring less. QB scored at 1.82 ppg, similar pace to Perfetti and not similar to Laf or even Rossi. And that's just a pace, he wasn't able to do it for a full season in junior.

Where I went wrong was I don't know exactly how long a CHL season is, game-wise, unlike the normal 82 game NHL season. I was originally looking at the 52 and 56gp for Laf and Rossi and extrapolated at QB's current pace, if he had 52gp, he'd have 94/95 points to 104-ish points at 56gp. I added Perfetti and his 1.8ish ppg later as an example of similar pace to QB and forgot to explain that context so that's all on me...people here can only go by what they read, not what's in my mind. So, my bad.

I'm nitpicking (I admit it) that I'm saying he didn't play near a full season and his scoring pace ppg was a couple tenths of a points below Rossi and Lafreniere, his point total (and game total) was below Perfetti. But look at the setting...I have to nitpick; we're comparing future superstar to future superstar with neither guy having any NHL experience. But felt I had to...both polls on HFB Kings had LA picking Byfield at #2 at a 5 to 1 rate over Stutzle at #2. In my mind, he real number should have been something like 50/50 or 60/40 (in either player's favor), not something overwhelming at 5 to 1. The NHL scouts don't have QB above Stutzle at 5 to 1...if anything, QB is behind Stutzle at 3 or lower in many ratings.

 

[Rekingsfan17]

Maximilian Glötzl or bust!

I hope we pick Maximilian in the later rounds just so he can skate around after any teammate scores a goal with his hands in the air saying, "Are you not entertained!"

…….well that and the fact that he is a 6'2", 198 lb. LHD that was the highest scoring U18 defenseman in his league and he helped capture a Division A title at last years IIHF U18's.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

For what it's worth, Don Cherry said on his podcast (along with his son), that Quinton Byfield should be going #2 to the Kings, and they also predict that Yzerman will select Cole Perfetti at #4.

 

[Rorschach]

For what it's worth, Don Cherry said on his podcast (along with his son), that Quinton Byfield should be going #2 to the Kings, and they also predict that Yzerman will select Cole Perfetti at #4.

I can make the assumption that Stutzle goes to Ottawa at 3?

 

[LAKings88]

For what it's worth, Don Cherry said on his podcast (along with his son), that Quinton Byfield should be going #2 to the Kings, and they also predict that Yzerman will select Cole Perfetti at #4.

Would he ever pick a European over a Canadian player?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Would he ever pick a European over a Canadian player?

Yeah, it's Cherry, he probably has Stutzle at 12 as his top European.

 

[johnjm22]

Earlier, I stated this:
"I’ll give you some real numbers...he only scored 82 points in 45g last season. Other comparable CHL players in the same draft: Rossi 120 points in 56g, Lafreniere 112 points in 52g, Perfetti 111 points in 61g. Point is at the top of the draft, the guys are all scoring 110+ points in their draft season...QB not only was hurt, which is often a big ding in your juniors draft season traditionally, he was more on a 90 point pace...that doesn’t translate into 75 points in the NHL."

...and stated it rather poorly, after reading everyone's reactions and re-reading it myself.

What I should have said (and didn't) is that guys at the top of the draft like Rossi and Lafreniere are scoring at a 2+ ppg. Guys in the fourth tier (Laf being first, Stutzle and QB supposedly in the 2nd tier, Drysdale/Raymond in the 3rd tier and the other first rounders afterward being 4th and on, such as Perfetti) are scoring less. QB scored at 1.82 ppg, similar pace to Perfetti and not similar to Laf or even Rossi. And that's just a pace, he wasn't able to do it for a full season in junior.

Where I went wrong was I don't know exactly how long a CHL season is, game-wise, unlike the normal 82 game NHL season. I was originally looking at the 52 and 56gp for Laf and Rossi and extrapolated at QB's current pace, if he had 52gp, he'd have 94/95 points to 104-ish points at 56gp. I added Perfetti and his 1.8ish ppg later as an example of similar pace to QB and forgot to explain that context so that's all on me...people here can only go by what they read, not what's in my mind. So, my bad.

I'm nitpicking (I admit it) that I'm saying he didn't play near a full season and his scoring pace ppg was a couple tenths of a points below Rossi and Lafreniere, his point total (and game total) was below Perfetti. But look at the setting...I have to nitpick; we're comparing future superstar to future superstar with neither guy having any NHL experience. But felt I had to...both polls on HFB Kings had LA picking Byfield at #2 at a 5 to 1 rate over Stutzle at #2. In my mind, he real number should have been something like 50/50 or 60/40 (in either player's favor), not something overwhelming at 5 to 1. The NHL scouts don't have QB above Stutzle at 5 to 1...if anything, QB is behind Stutzle at 3 or lower in many ratings.

Perfetti and Rossi have stats that are inflated because they played on stacked teams. Lafrieniere is a year older than Byfield.

I guarantee you Perfetti/Rossi don't even get close to the same point totals if they played for the Sudbury Wolves like Byfield did.

Even strength Primary Points Per Game:

 

[Rorschach]

Perfetti and Rossi have stats that are inflated because they played on stacked teams. Lafrieniere is a year older than Byfield.

I guarantee you Perfetti/Rossi don't even get close to the same point totals if they played for the Sudbury Wolves like Byfield did.

Even strength Primary Points Per Game:

I don’t know, the logic feels very circular. I don’t like to see these kinds of “conclusions” when spending something so precious like the 2OA. If we had the 11OA, I don’t mind these sort of things...projections and reasons to dismiss shortcomings in performance.
What I would like to hear for the 2OA is not why he scored less and instead how he made his wingers better. I keep hearing comparisons to Kopitar and Malkin but those guys excel no matter the wingers and in Malkin’s case, even elevate their wingers to score more.
This batch of prospects that Blake has put together this time, there are some legit scorers in there. I’d like to see a world class playmaker with them.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don’t know, the logic feels very circular. I don’t like to see these kinds of “conclusions” when spending something so precious like the 2OA. If we had the 11OA, I don’t mind these sort of things...projections and reasons to dismiss shortcomings in performance.
What I would like to hear for the 2OA is not why he scored less and instead how he made his wingers better. I keep hearing comparisons to Kopitar and Malkin but those guys excel no matter the wingers and in Malkin’s case, even elevate their wingers to score more.
This batch of prospects that Blake has put together this time, there are some legit scorers in there. I’d like to see a world class playmaker with them.

What? That's not what that chart says at all. Byfield's primary points per game were second only to Laf. That doesn't mean Byfield doesn't elevate his team/linemates, it means he's a carrier:

"The Sudbury center racked up points in the OHL. He finished the year 14th in points despite missing 18 games due to a combination of injury and the World Juniors. And even still, the Ontario native led the Wolves in scoring and was the player driving the bus for the Wolves. When Byfield was out, the Wolves were outscored 32-19, but with the dominant center in the lineup, the team was well better off, outscoring their opponents 240-208."

He had 11 points in 6 games before the injury, then as soon as he came back, they won 4 of 5, with 8 more points in 5 games.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

In his draft year, Malkin scored 3 goals and 12 points in 34 games in Russia.

Don't know what the Penguins were thinking selecting him at #2 with numbers like that.

 

[Faterson]

For what it's worth, Don Cherry said on his podcast (along with his son), that Quinton Byfield should be going #2 to the Kings, and they also predict that Yzerman will select Cole Perfetti at #4.

It's worth less than nothing. Cherry assessing European players? Please...

 

[Faterson]

In his draft year, Malkin scored 3 goals and 12 points in 34 games in Russia.

Don't know what the Penguins were thinking selecting him at #2 with numbers like that.

That's the world's second-toughest league, you know.

 

[The Lukeman]

What? That's not what that chart says at all. Byfield's primary points per game were second only to Laf. That doesn't mean Byfield doesn't elevate his team/linemates, it means he's a carrier:

"The Sudbury center racked up points in the OHL. He finished the year 14th in points despite missing 18 games due to a combination of injury and the World Juniors. And even still, the Ontario native led the Wolves in scoring and was the player driving the bus for the Wolves. When Byfield was out, the Wolves were outscored 32-19, but with the dominant center in the lineup, the team was well better off, outscoring their opponents 240-208."

He had 11 points in 6 games before the injury, then as soon as he came back, they won 4 of 5, with 8 more points in 5 games.

Take it with a grain of salt, but Mannheim was 9-1-1 without Stutzle when he went to the WJC. 31-17-5 with Stutzle. But I believe this has more to do with a good winning streak rather than Stutzle. Wish the DEL put out Corsi/SAT% stats so we could compare.

 

[Statto]

playing in a league that many compare to the AHL in terms of competitive talent.

Nobody that has any expertise equates the DEL to the AHL.... “many” are people that have not watched live DEL hockey or actually done any sort of deep dive on the players in that league. Its not even close to the AHL and using this undermines your argument if anything.

 

[BigKing]

I don’t know, the logic feels very circular. I don’t like to see these kinds of “conclusions” when spending something so precious like the 2OA. If we had the 11OA, I don’t mind these sort of things...projections and reasons to dismiss shortcomings in performance.
What I would like to hear for the 2OA is not why he scored less and instead how he made his wingers better. I keep hearing comparisons to Kopitar and Malkin but those guys excel no matter the wingers and in Malkin’s case, even elevate their wingers to score more.
This batch of prospects that Blake has put together this time, there are some legit scorers in there. I’d like to see a world class playmaker with them.

Yeah man...I don't know where you keep coming from with this. Byfield put up huge numbers. He played less games than his WJC counterparts due to a an injury that cost him like seven games or something. He played even less games than Perfetti because this dude didn't even make the WJC team.

You mentioned earlier using an 82 game season or something as the baseline for the OHL numbers and then realizing they play fewer games than that but here you are again talking about projections and shortcomings in performance when there is zero reason to believe his production falls off a cliff if he played the games he missed and there are absolutely no shortcomings in his OHL performance.

Byfield had nobody in Sudbury while these other guys played with legit talents. In the case of Stutzle, look at the performance of his team when he wasn't in the lineup...9-1-1!? There are only 14 teams in the DEL and you are looking at a .500 team once you get to 7th in the standings. Would be great if someone much better than me at finding this stuff can show what Stutzle did when playing the top three other teams in the league. I'd feel a lot better if he performed well against them v. racking up points against the dregs of the league. Same with Byfield in the OHL as I believe that is a slight knock against Rossi as his PPG dips against better competition.

I know you aren't like 80/20 for Stutzle, but your last comment about wanting to see a world class playmaker says you want Stutzle. I once again have to point out that the Byfield contingent doesn't want him just because he is big but rather because he is a world class offensive player that also happens to be that big. He runs the point on the power play for Sudbury and his primary points per game speaks to his ability to generate offense. Now, scoring goals is a primary point so the graph isn't a total "primary assist v. secondary" but it isn't like he scored 60 goals to skew the number too much. Also, I'd prefer a guy that is a legit threat to score goals and is also a great passer v. a guy that opposing defenseman and goalies expect to pass and can cheat on a little bit.

 

[cyclones22]

Well said, BigKing. I couldn't have said it better.

 

[BigKing]

I went ahead and took a look at the game logs for Stutzle against the five above .500 teams other than his own, obviously.

Seven points in 10 games as he missed five against these teams due to the WJC. One goal, two primary assists and four secondary. Only a slight drop off from his overall PPG of ~.80 down to .70, although you would prefer that secondary assists didn't account for over half of his total. I'm still giving the King of the Secondary Point--Jaroslav Modry--grief in my avatar signature deal but I understand that points are points.

I can get chintzy and say that two of those points came in the 3rd period when Mannheim was already losing 6-0 but now I'm just splitting hairs. I will say that he didn't necessarily feast on the .500 and below teams unless a deeper dive shows that he was racking them up big time against the real dregs of the league but I've already done way more research than I wanted to do by clicking on the box scores of 15 DEL games.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

That's the world's second-toughest league, you know.

In 2004? Look at Malkin’s team then.
Magnitogorsk Metallurg 2003-04 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

At least he outscored former King Dmitri Khristich.

And Ovechkin only scored 13 goals his draft year.
Moscow Dynamo 2003-04 roster and scoring statistics at hockeydb.com

The Capitals and Penguins made big mistakes selecting those two. They should have chosen far more successful juniors who outscored them in their draft years, like Andrew Ladd or Alexandre Picard.

 

[Schrute farms]

The commentary floating out there that Byfield didn't put up big numbers and he's solely a "potential" pick reminds me of my kids hearing one thing and immediately thinking it's gospel. I constantly have to implore them to: (a) consider the source because ppl have agendas; (b) always be skeptical; and (c) always get & read multiple views/opinions on things so that you can understand both sides and make an informed decision based on the facts.

I don't care who they pick -- nor do i know who they should pick. But i find it funny at draft time when ppl decide for whatever reason one guy is their guy and they will cherry pick facts/opinions/etc. to fit that narrative. Byfield has issues...just like all these guys do. But a lack of production is a not one of them. When someone brings that up as to why they don't like him and want to select him -- sorry, you lost me right then and there.

 

[King'sPawn]

Yeah man...I don't know where you keep coming from with this. Byfield put up huge numbers. He played less games than his WJC counterparts due to a an injury that cost him like seven games or something. He played even less games than Perfetti because this dude didn't even make the WJC team.

You mentioned earlier using an 82 game season or something as the baseline for the OHL numbers and then realizing they play fewer games than that but here you are again talking about projections and shortcomings in performance when there is zero reason to believe his production falls off a cliff if he played the games he missed and there are absolutely no shortcomings in his OHL performance.

Byfield had nobody in Sudbury while these other guys played with legit talents. In the case of Stutzle, look at the performance of his team when he wasn't in the lineup...9-1-1!? There are only 14 teams in the DEL and you are looking at a .500 team once you get to 7th in the standings. Would be great if someone much better than me at finding this stuff can show what Stutzle did when playing the top three other teams in the league. I'd feel a lot better if he performed well against them v. racking up points against the dregs of the league. Same with Byfield in the OHL as I believe that is a slight knock against Rossi as his PPG dips against better competition.

I know you aren't like 80/20 for Stutzle, but your last comment about wanting to see a world class playmaker says you want Stutzle. I once again have to point out that the Byfield contingent doesn't want him just because he is big but rather because he is a world class offensive player that also happens to be that big. He runs the point on the power play for Sudbury and his primary points per game speaks to his ability to generate offense. Now, scoring goals is a primary point so the graph isn't a total "primary assist v. secondary" but it isn't like he scored 60 goals to skew the number too much. Also, I'd prefer a guy that is a legit threat to score goals and is also a great passer v. a guy that opposing defenseman and goalies expect to pass and can cheat on a little bit.

Pick224 breaks down points in many leagues. DEL isn't one, though:
Pick224 - Hockey Prospect Stats

Even Strength:
A1 - 23
A2 - 9

Power play:
A1 - 11
A2 - 5

Short handed:
A1 - 2
A2 - 0

In total: 36 primary assists, 14 secondary

Edit: fixed my post where I had errors