Who does LA pick #2

[BigKing]

Not saying that Stutzle sucks or anything, but he's the hot young mistress of 2OA with Byfield being married to 2OA for quite a long time.

The mistress is new and exciting but 2OA hasn't been living with it: all they do is go out, drink and bone. Sounds fun, especially with the top-notch hands and agility with an accent to boot.

Byfield is boring now. Like, he never even scores off the cycle and does the same transition move every time. I mean, it gets the job done but like, chicken for dinner again? 2OA has seen him lounging around in his pajamas all the time and has walked into the bathroom after he's taken a shit but Stutzle doesn't even shit: he's so efficient that he produces zero waste.

 

[cyclones22]

This guy nails it:

There are some legitimate concerns about Stutzle's game that seem to be flying under the radar somewhat. Players like Stutzle that catch the public eye a little later than most and rise throughout the year often manage to dodge the scutiny that comes as people "overanalyze" players-- Stutzle hasn't had people making up narratives about him struggling against top competition like we saw with Quinton Byfield, for example. The focus has always been his positive traits (as it should be), but there are a few concerns worth highlighting.

2020 NHL Draft Rankings: Final Top 31

Remember, a year ago Lucas Raymond was much closer to a #2 overall projection that Stutzle was. He performed just as well if not better at the WJCs than Stutzle did and actually scored goals. But Raymond played in a much tougher domestic league and higher quality team and was only playing 8 minutes or so a game for Frolunda. What if Raymond played in Juniors or the DEL? He probably kills it there as well.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I get that but usually when players get bigger and bulk, they slow down.

The more videos I watch about Byfield as his goal scoring production is in bulk off the rush or transition. He's not gonna get many oddman rushes in the NHL. I see Stutzle working cycles more efficiently. It's all opinion for me and I'm probably wrong. I just don't know if the Kings need a Kopitar lite or a dude with Kanes skillset minus the shot.

His shot needs work yes but I watch Stutzle just weave through beautifully.

I like Byfield but he's more of a straight line player. I just don't know if that's ideal for the Kings.

Kings need a high level dangler.

I think both guys are exhibiting products of their league to some degree, though, and taking what they're given. Byfield's team has next to no zone presence so a lot of his points are scored in transition but do you really think that guy wouldn't be successful on the 2015-Kings styled teams? Same with Stutzle--I can't imagine that guy not being a monster on the rush but he's taking the open ice opponents are giving him and doing wheelies in the zone because he can. They'll both adapt, they're too good not to, and I can't really hold their leagues against them from a stylistic standpoint.

For me, the choice is not that hard. Image below is best PPG in the OHL since 2010. Byfield ranks 6th. Of the 17 players on this list that have made it to the NHL, 8 are considered top players in the NHL and only 3 failed to really make the NHL. And he is on the higher end of this list.

On top of that, Byfield only played 5 games in the last 1/3rd of his season (5 games since feb 7), and is the youngest player on this list. So his 1.82 PPG represents former part of his development, rather than the latter. He is doing this in a league with deep history of developing players. All of this screams top tier talent.

I don't know how but Byfield' shot is somehow underrated. He had a 27% shooting percentage. He doesn't have a good shot, he has a GREAT shot. Only can think of Holtz and Quinn who clearly have a better shot.

Every single player in the top 10, except Quinton Byfield, had at least 1 other 1st or 2nd round talent on their team. Byfield played with 1 drafted player, 6th round pick Blake Murray (they played on 2 separate lines).

All the data analytics look great for Byfield. In Scouching's analytics, Byfield has the highest NHLes score (yes higher than Lafreniere), which adjusts a player's league, age, and raw production to make a comparable analysis. When Byfield on the ice, his team is scoring 35% more goals and allowing 27% less goals than when he is not on the ice. Stats from Pick224 and HockeyPC on twitter showed that Byfield was 1st in the OHL in G per 60 minutes played and primary assists per 60 minutes played.

People who point out Byfield's production mainly comes from transition plays forget that the OHL is a transition league and a majority of goals are scored on either the rush or PP. Odds are, you heard someone hear from Draft Dynasty about his concerns, and made now its a major argument point. Yet, that argument was never brought up for Connor McDavid, Mitch Marner, Matthew Tkachuk, DeBrincat, Yakupov, Svechnikov, etc despite them doing the same thing. Don't believe me. Here is a bunch of player highlights from their ohl seasons:
McDavid
Marner
Strome
Tkachuk
Svechnikov
Must I go on?

The way I see it, this debate is like the Svechnikov/Zadina debate. It was so obvious that Svechnikov was the #2 pick, yet there was so much debate about who should go at #2. I like Stutzle, he has potential to be a PP quarterback and be an elite winger, but Byfield has the potential to be a #1 franchise center. Stutzle does not attack the center of the ice enough to play center in the NHL. The majority of his production comes from playing perimeter on the power play. He takes advantage of the extra ice in the international rinks, where he can skate his way into a gorgeous passing play. He won't have the space like he does in the DEL.

Also these are opinions, I'm not trying to say you're wrong. I'm just trying to say how I feel.


View attachment 352725

I mentioned this in other places too but the other thing with that list is a lot of the guys had a 'partner' or more, Byfield is the only solo artist completely blowing it away, as opposed to, say, Tkachuk-Marner-Dvorak playing together and the crazy good Erie teams.

 

[Sol]

I think both guys are exhibiting products of their league to some degree, though, and taking what they're given. Byfield's team has next to no zone presence so a lot of his points are scored in transition but do you really think that guy wouldn't be successful on the 2015-Kings styled teams? Same with Stutzle--I can't imagine that guy not being a monster on the rush but he's taking the open ice opponents are giving him and doing wheelies in the zone because he can. They'll both adapt, they're too good not to, and I can't really hold their leagues against them from a stylistic standpoint.





I mentioned this in other places too but the other thing with that list is a lot of the guys had a 'partner' or more, Byfield is the only solo artist completely blowing it away, as opposed to, say, Tkachuk-Marner-Dvorak playing together and the crazy good Erie teams.

I don't think you're wrong at all. I just see a very big difference in their style of play and I wonder which will better suit the future King team. I watch Byfield play and I'm not particularly blown away by his skating. I know he's considered to have top end speed which Ive seen that but you won't see that kind of space in the NHL. He's not gonna get that much space in the NHL to speed up like that since he's definitely not shifty.

I see Stuzle create space and play extremely shifty. He has very good vision and is an excellent playmaker. I see his shot isn't good which blows but I wonder if that will be improved.

Also, Byfield does have a very good shot. Everywhere his shot rank in Top 5-10 of the draft which is pretty awesome.

The biggest knock on Stutzle is his shot and he forces the play a bit.

The biggest knock on Byfield is that he's a straight line skater and I haven't seen much of him dominate on a cycle like I've seen Stutzle do consistently.

I am 90% sure that Byfield will be the player the Kings choose because he's been considered the 2 OA pick for some time. But I can't help to wonder are they actually taking the best player available for the Kings.

 

[Choralone]

Besides top-end speed, people have noted that Byfield has excellent acceleration - his quick first steps are the other outstanding part of his skating.

 

[AzKing]

There is a zero percent chance that LA messes up the pick. Both Byfield and Stutzle will be top line players. It's just a matter of what they want more in terms of style but trying to convince anyone that one of these guys won't be elite is a waste of time because it's not going to happen. They can't lose here. Buy a Ferrari or a McLaren. Doesn't really matter. I do agree with BigKing in that as usual, guys like Byfield get boring and people are looking for a new pot of gold to chance and that's Stutzle. After decades of drafts for me, it is a certainty that the top players get more scrutiny and other players gain steam just before the draft. This is what is happening with Byfield and Stutzle. Byfield is boring now and they need someone else to put on a pedestal. We are just lucky that it isn't some guy who will be a bust.

I prefer Byfield just because of his immense potential even though he already is a pretty damn good. I have always wanted him. It's just a preference for me. Stutzle seems more refined but is a tick below the ceiling. Who really cares? They both will have a massive impact in the NHL. That's what you get by drafting where the Kings are drafting and not at #4. The top 3 will all make their teams very happy as will Drysdale who I believe will go #4 unless a team just doesn't want a Defenseman.

You also never trade out of a surefire player.

 

[BigKing]

I don't think you're wrong at all. I just see a very big difference in their style of play and I wonder which will better suit the future King team. I watch Byfield play and I'm not particularly blown away by his skating. I know he's considered to have top end speed which Ive seen that but you won't see that kind of space in the NHL. He's not gonna get that much space in the NHL to speed up like that since he's definitely not shifty.

I see Stuzle create space and play extremely shifty. He has very good vision and is an excellent playmaker. I see his shot isn't good which blows but I wonder if that will be improved.

Also, Byfield does have a very good shot. Everywhere his shot rank in Top 5-10 of the draft which is pretty awesome.

The biggest knock on Stutzle is his shot and he forces the play a bit.

The biggest knock on Byfield is that he's a straight line skater and I haven't seen much of him dominate on a cycle like I've seen Stutzle do consistently.

I am 90% sure that Byfield will be the player the Kings choose because he's been considered the 2 OA pick for some time. But I can't help to wonder are they actually taking the best player available for the Kings.

Regarding the bolded, I see Stutzle being *given* a ton of space which is exacerbated on the power play and larger ice surface. That isn't a knock on his hands, skating or vision since they are fantastic: it is a knock on the defense I see in the DEL. It's soft as baby shit.

That just goes back to RJ's comment regarding deficiencies in both leagues: OHL and DEL. It is much easier to compare Byfield's numbers to other OHL grads and project his impact v. Stutzle's DEL numbers. Yes, Stutzle did more than any other draft eligible player in the DEL but there is still a question of what that exactly means. It's obviously better than not putting up the best numbers ever but it is fair to wonder what he would be doing with eight minutes a night on Frolunda in the SEL like Raymond.

As for not seeing much of him dominating on the cycle, I totally get it. His tape is like night/day when you look at Vilardi's from his draft year. My counter would be that it is short-sighted to think that Stutzle is the "type" of player this team needs v. not needing a guy with great size and breakaway speed to go along with a great shot and great hands. "Pat Kane without the shot" actually sounds like what the Kings don't need in comparison to Byfield since the Kings need goal scorers. T-Mac's system seems a little more transition based than what we are used to from the TM-Sutter Kings as well. The other thing about Byfield in a "half-court" set is that he runs the point on the Sudbury power play. They ranked 9th in PP% in the OHL out of 20 teams, so mid-pack. Out of the 53 goals they scored on the PP, however, he picked up a point on ~42% of them.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I don't think you're wrong at all. I just see a very big difference in their style of play and I wonder which will better suit the future King team. I watch Byfield play and I'm not particularly blown away by his skating. I know he's considered to have top end speed which Ive seen that but you won't see that kind of space in the NHL. He's not gonna get that much space in the NHL to speed up like that since he's definitely not shifty.

I see Stuzle create space and play extremely shifty. He has very good vision and is an excellent playmaker. I see his shot isn't good which blows but I wonder if that will be improved.

Also, Byfield does have a very good shot. Everywhere his shot rank in Top 5-10 of the draft which is pretty awesome.

The biggest knock on Stutzle is his shot and he forces the play a bit.

The biggest knock on Byfield is that he's a straight line skater and I haven't seen much of him dominate on a cycle like I've seen Stutzle do consistently.

I am 90% sure that Byfield will be the player the Kings choose because he's been considered the 2 OA pick for some time. But I can't help to wonder are they actually taking the best player available for the Kings.

With respect, that's crazy. Obviously compared to Stutlze, who is one of the most agile players in the world already, he doesn't look crazy shifty. But compared to everyone else, Byfield is an insane skater. That's one of his greatest strengths. He's not just Mario Kart Bowser who takes a while to get going and then is unstoppable at top speed, he gets there quickly and can twist on a dime.

 

[cyclones22]

With respect, that's crazy. Obviously compared to Stutlze, who is one of the most agile players in the world already, he doesn't look crazy shifty. But compared to everyone else, Byfield is an insane skater. That's one of his greatest strengths. He's not just Mario Kart Bowser who takes a while to get going and then is unstoppable at top speed, he gets there quickly and can twist on a dime.

Exactly. I mentioned this in another post, you have to compare Byfield's skating/agility/athleticism to other players HIS size. It's a rare combination and right now you don't find a lot of guys in the NHL who have that combination, period. Then someone will counter with well, he won't have the space to execute in the NHL. Byfield will still have a size and reach advantage. Once he gains man strength, look out and good luck trying to dislodge the puck from. The fact that he has great hands as well only adds to the arsenal.

 

[bmr]

If Stutzle had a shot like Patrick Kane, I would definitely take him as #2. As it stands right now, Byfield is the way to go.

 

[Mats26]

Here is my take on Stutzle.

He passes the eye candy test until you look closer. All the highlight reel plays and puck possession happens mostly on the power play, perimeter play, or odd man rushes against very questionable D men.

He wants the puck and needs fluidity in the game to be effective. If you lock him down to play along the boards he will be less affective. He needs to develop his shot, get to the dirty areas and better his goal scoring prowlness. This may not be as easy to teach but an increase in these skills can change his future projections.

I thinks he becomes a 20 goal scorer in the NHL on average. Which leaves me to this. A #2 player should be scoring at a PPG which means he will need to collect ~ 60 assists per year to become that.
I can’t seem him putting up those numbers with LA or the Sens unless the team that drafts him finds a really good sniper that develop chemistry 5 on 5 to go along with him. Relying on pp points won’t get u to PPG status.

My projection of him if he plays Center: A poor man's Nicklas Backstrom

Similar stats projections. But since Nick has been playing with Ovi. I can see Stutzle a tad lower stats wise than Nick Backstrom.
A 70 point Center unless they find an Ovi clone to play with him.

 

[crassbonanza]

At this point I really hope that Blake drafts Byfield because his mythology is growing by day on here. It seems guaranteed that he will be a 50 goal scoring franchise center with the best skating, hands and shot in this draft. He will play a 200 foot game and win every puck battle once he gains more strength. Meanwhile Stutzle is guaranteed to not be a franchise winger and is only in consideration because he is the hot, young mistress. He basically only looks good because he plays in the DEL, which is soft as baby shit and his game is all flash no substance.

By the way, that is not hyperbole, I can find the comments for every one of those statements, most of them just in the past few pages.

 

[Mats26]

Here is my take on Byfield:

Not all about size. Plays like a 5’10” skill player in a massive frame.
That’s where I see an issue though. 6’ 4” players need to impose their will and use their size advantage to their benefit. Being too passive and cute with the puck should be corrected and it will with whichever team drafts and develops him.

Right now I see him as a hybrid of Eric Stall and Joe Thorton. Stalls goal scoring abilities and good shot with Thortons puck protection and management. The Malkin comparision are way out there, he doesn’t have the drive or intensity of Gino…yet

Most big guys slow down over time. Just see Kopitar’s first few years compared to now. I see the same here with Byfield. He is more of a risk since over time he may have to tweak his game because of his size, weight, speed etc…

My projection of him depends on if his scoring translates to the NHL.
If he becomes a 30 goals scorer: Eric Stall type of numbers 30G 40A for 70 pts.

If he develops intensity, keep his motor running and shows consistency in his goal scoring: I can see 40G 50A ~ 90Pts 1 line Center Malkin type.

 

[LAKings88]

I’m going Byfield 98%

Now I’m at Raymond and Stutzle tied with the other 2%.

 

[BigKing]

At this point I really hope that Blake drafts Byfield because his mythology is growing by day on here. It seems guaranteed that he will be a 50 goal scoring franchise center with the best skating, hands and shot in this draft. He will play a 200 foot game and win every puck battle once he gains more strength. Meanwhile Stutzle is guaranteed to not be a franchise winger and is only in consideration because he is the hot, young mistress. He basically only looks good because he plays in the DEL, which is soft as baby shit and his game is all flash no substance.

By the way, that is not hyperbole, I can find the comments for every one of those statements, most of them just in the past few pages.

- I never said he will not be a franchise winger.
- He is the shiny new toy, the fast riser since the WJC. That is a fact.
- The defense in the DEL is soft as baby shit. Another fact. RJ loves Stutzle but he was even mentioning this before the Kings were in a position to draft him.
- I've also not guaranteed anything about Byfield. There are no guarantees for either player. When projecting ceilings, I prefer Byfield's.

Hell, the two posts above mine from Mats seem to lean Byfield even though his projection for Stutzle is 70 points unless he has an Ovi-type on his wing. That's pretty damn good. He projects Byfield around the same but with the higher ceiling because, well, he does appear to have the higher ceiling.

Most posters say they will be happy with either. I'm stoked to be adding either one of them to the prospect pool. I prefer that it be Byfield and, yes, I'm throwing some cold water on the Stutzle love in going around all of HF because contrary to your post, he appears to be the guy that can't miss with no weaknesses. If Byfield can be picked apart, then Stutzle needs to be as well.

 

[kilowatt]

One thing I will say is that players with high-end speed often wind up injured and those injuries often hamper their speed.

Watching some of Stützle’s highlights look like a D1 player playing against D5 beer leaguers. It’s pretty ridiculous.

 

[bland]

Kaliyev would be begging for Stützle.

 

[kilowatt]

Kaliyev would be begging for Stützle.

Stutzle - Vilardi - Kaliyev
Madden - Turcotte - Kupari

 

[Schrute farms]

Count me as a Byfield fan. Seems like a no-brainer for him at 2OA. Honestly I'll be cool with either though. Just so happy we got the chance to pick #2. It'll be a long wait....but awesome we get to fight over the #2 pick rather than who to take at #7. BTW, i secretly was hoping for Raymond if we fell to #5-7...i think he's being really underrated.

Turcotte - Vilardi - Kaliyev
Madden - Byfield - Kupari

 

[TwzKing]

The fact most of the board has the mentality of either is okay im preparing myself for an off the board pick lol

 

[Lt Dan]

The fact most of the board has the mentality of either is okay im preparing myself for an off the board pick lol

I am sorry to have to tell you this, but it won't be Mr Peanut that we draft this year

He had a tragic death back on Jan 22


RIP Mr Peanut

 

[King'sPawn]

I see the discussion has gone where I expected it will go.

 

[cyclones22]

I see the discussion has gone where I expected it will go.

You mean folks using hyperbole and completely misrepresenting what others have posted? Yep, welcome to July. Only months to go before the actual draft

 

[ScoreZeGoals]

Prefer Byfield, fine with either Byfield or Stutzle, not much more to say

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Only three to four more months until we get to see any offseason activity. The last two drafts I remember running really late were 1995 and 2005, both due to lockouts.