Who does LA pick #2
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Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
Remember when there were a couple of fans who preferred the Kings take Filatov at the 2008 draft? That was funny. And also the meatheads who wanted Bogosian over Doughty.
I wasn't just talking about you. Those are a collection of posts I have read over the past few days.
He was considered a top 10 pick going into the season and played extremely well in the DEL, it was not just the WJC.
Do you think that the defense in the DEL is worst than the defense in juniors?
Again, I wasn't just talking about your posts.
How do you know he has the highest ceiling? A lot o people not on this board believe that Stutzle may have the highest ceiling.
What are you talking about? This whole entire board is throwing cold water on Stutzle and pumping up Byfield as a guy with no weakness. Where are you finding people picking apart Byfield on here? I bet if you see any comment even somewhat critical of him you will find a dozen replies pointing out how wrong that poster is. Hence my post here. I am going to be extremely happy with either, but I'm just saying that the mythology of Byfeild is growing by leaps and bounds.
Here, let me ask you this question. What weakness do you think Byfield has?
King'sPawn
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As someone who preferred Bogosian after Doughty, I think you're grossly misrepresenting people who preferred him.
Zach Bogosian had 61 points in 60 OHL games that year, which was higher than Doughty's 50 in 58. He was compared to Chelios - a tough-as-nails type of defender in a more closely checked league compared to how it is today. Doughty was seen as highly skilled but also compared to an unattainable Ray Bourque. I think tempered expectations were acceptable.
Bogosian had two things go against him: injuries and the Atlanta Thrashers developing him.
Now if you want to mock people who feel the Kings should have drafted Bogosian due to the Armenian influence in LA (similar to people pushing Byfield because of African Americans in LA, or pushing Stutzle because of Anschutz's German heritage), go right ahead. But Bogosian had a lot of promise and a lot going for him, and I think people who gave him the edge over Doughty are far from meatheads.
I just watched the Stutzle highlights reel ...
then I watched the Tyler Madden highlights reel ...
Now I’m convinced Yannetti is looking at Byfield and Raymond and trying to decide ...
Madden may not have the wheels that Stutzle has, but man, can he find the spots and shoot the puck!
And the two youtz have a near identical power play noggin, except Madden does it on small ice and actually scores.
Just don’t see using the 2OA pick on Stutzle. I think EliteProspects ranked him correctly in the 8-spot.
then I watched the Tyler Madden highlights reel ...
Now I’m convinced Yannetti is looking at Byfield and Raymond and trying to decide ...
Madden may not have the wheels that Stutzle has, but man, can he find the spots and shoot the puck!
And the two youtz have a near identical power play noggin, except Madden does it on small ice and actually scores.
Just don’t see using the 2OA pick on Stutzle. I think EliteProspects ranked him correctly in the 8-spot.
BigKing
Blake Out of Hell III: Back in to Hell
Will talk about his weaknesses in a bit as I'm hopping on a call, but the general consensus I've seen is Byfield has the most potential in the draft with some even going as far to say it is higher than Laf's; however, there are major questions on if he will reach his potential which is a nod to his current weaknesses.
Byfield is more popular on this board then the rest of HF, I'd wager. Stutzle is getting love on this board and there are many that will be happy with either.
As far as ceilings go, I don't know: nobody actually knows. I believe Byfield has the higher ceiling as the combo of size and skill is special and he is a natural center. Also barely makes the cut to be in this draft so he is younger than most.
Where mythology goes, I feel that is better applied to Stutzle. Not on this board per se, but in the scouting community and around a lot of HF. Again, he was a Top 10 guy that played German Juniors before this year so all of us casual dudes never really saw him but Byfield has been hyped as the #2 for awhile. There is fatigue with him where the hours haven't been poured as much into Stutzle to really start nitpicking. That isn't taking a shit on him at all, it just seems like there aren't a lot of weaknesses mentioned for Stutzle except that he needs to get stronger (basically every draft year prospect) and his shot.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
People were salivating over Bogosian because of his size and chiseled physique, being compared to a man versus the doughy Doughty who needed to lose weight. I read some of the comments recently from around then and everyone who wanted Bogosian over Doughty brought up the conditioning thing as if it was a huge advantage Bogosian had over Doughty.
Points aside, Bogosian was never as skilled or talented as Doughty, nor was he the type of dman who controlled the pace of a game like Drew did as a junior. Doughty was a well decorated athlete in his draft year, something Bogosian wasn’t.
Bogosian over Doughty would be like choosing Colten Teubert over Erik Karlsson. Oh wait, that did happen.
Points aside, Bogosian was never as skilled or talented as Doughty, nor was he the type of dman who controlled the pace of a game like Drew did as a junior. Doughty was a well decorated athlete in his draft year, something Bogosian wasn’t.
Bogosian over Doughty would be like choosing Colten Teubert over Erik Karlsson. Oh wait, that did happen.
Legionnaire
Help On The Way
I think that may be my issue, I stick mostly to this board and don't venture out as much. So, that may be why I see a lot of Byfield mythology and Stutzle detracting. I did see the earlier scouting report that absolutely ripped Stutzle apart earlier and ranked him 8th. I think it was from eliteprospects.
Well, I see plenty of Stutzle weaknesses pointed out. It seems pretty well acknowledged that his shot power is a definite weakness and others have mentioned that a lot of his play comes from the perimeter. However, I have yet to see a weakness regarding Byfield be accepted and that is why I asked.
bland
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If that's the route they take, I could see mid 2021-22 looking like:
Iafallo - Kopitar - Fagemo
Stützle - Vilardi - Kaliyev
Kempe - Turcotte - Madden
Grundstrom - JAD - Thomas
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It was me that said he won’t be a franchise winger, but I never said he’d be poor. I think he will be Elite but not Franchise level, whereas that’s where Byfields ceiling is. In fact in 10 years when the redraft threads start appearing it will be no surprise if Byfield goes number 1 (I don’t dispute the current ranking).
BigKing
Blake Out of Hell III: Back in to Hell
@crassbonanza
Byfield needs to use his size more as he doesn't have that mean streak you'd like to see for someone his size. I think that is remedies via the school of hard knocks: he's been able to dominate without imposing his will physically because he has elite skills that allow him to not need to use it.
I have seen him get knocked off the puck easier than you'd like for a guy his size. Kind of the same criticism but that can also raise flags about desire and compete level but I feel that is more of an age thing and him needing to use his size and strength v. assuming his skill will always win out.
I don't love his performances on the international stage. WJC doesn't concern me due to age and ice time but you don't like seeing only 5 points in 5 games at the Hlinka while Perfetti is out there with like 12 points. Top prospects game deal wasn't hot either. I do like his rookie year OHL playoffs, however, so it isn't like he is always shrinking on the bigger stage. I just wonder, again, about assertiveness and if he gets on a team with his peers in a tournament setting and plays, I don't know, "shy"? When he's on Sudbury with no legit other talents, he just puts the team on his back. I'm wondering if it is a confidence thing.
I love the tools too much but also don't think he is a no toolbox guy at all. As a bank underwriter, I decide creditworthiness based on historical financials while loans based on projections are generally riskier. I have historical OHL financials as well as knowing that size/skill combos like this are rare. With Stutzle, I'm doing a lot more projecting when it comes to the DEL stuff. If this was a loan, I'd want more collateral on Stutzle, i.e. I'm not taking him at #2 v. what I feel is safer in Byfield. The rub here is that I also think Byfield has the higher ceiling at the same time so it isn't difficult for me.
If LA was drafting at #3 overall, then I'm much higher on Stutzle. I think the only way that LA passes on Byfield is if they think there are character issues and/or low hockey IQ issues because the physical package potential is sky high.
Byfield needs to use his size more as he doesn't have that mean streak you'd like to see for someone his size. I think that is remedies via the school of hard knocks: he's been able to dominate without imposing his will physically because he has elite skills that allow him to not need to use it.
I have seen him get knocked off the puck easier than you'd like for a guy his size. Kind of the same criticism but that can also raise flags about desire and compete level but I feel that is more of an age thing and him needing to use his size and strength v. assuming his skill will always win out.
I don't love his performances on the international stage. WJC doesn't concern me due to age and ice time but you don't like seeing only 5 points in 5 games at the Hlinka while Perfetti is out there with like 12 points. Top prospects game deal wasn't hot either. I do like his rookie year OHL playoffs, however, so it isn't like he is always shrinking on the bigger stage. I just wonder, again, about assertiveness and if he gets on a team with his peers in a tournament setting and plays, I don't know, "shy"? When he's on Sudbury with no legit other talents, he just puts the team on his back. I'm wondering if it is a confidence thing.
I love the tools too much but also don't think he is a no toolbox guy at all. As a bank underwriter, I decide creditworthiness based on historical financials while loans based on projections are generally riskier. I have historical OHL financials as well as knowing that size/skill combos like this are rare. With Stutzle, I'm doing a lot more projecting when it comes to the DEL stuff. If this was a loan, I'd want more collateral on Stutzle, i.e. I'm not taking him at #2 v. what I feel is safer in Byfield. The rub here is that I also think Byfield has the higher ceiling at the same time so it isn't difficult for me.
If LA was drafting at #3 overall, then I'm much higher on Stutzle. I think the only way that LA passes on Byfield is if they think there are character issues and/or low hockey IQ issues because the physical package potential is sky high.
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No, but it’s closer to ECHL than it is to the AHL. It’s a long way from the best Euro League and it’s not a league that develops talent as successfully as Sweden for example, but it is improving. I say this having watched DEL and SEL teams live and you can really tell the difference between the standards. That’s not to say Stutzles numbers are not great for his age, they are, but the DEL has average goaltending/defence and many of the top scorers are ECHL journeymen. It brings with it just as many questions as juniors, just different ones.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
Look at what I found, a number of gems from Johnny Utah's desire to draft Bogosian.
The Drew Doughty Thread - HFBoards
But to his credit, Johnny came to his senses and the arguments in favor of Doughty swayed his opinion.
I also found the draft lottery thread from that year.
2008 NHL Draft Discussion Thread - HFBoards
Can't find the draft day thread from 2008, unfortunately. Maybe @Raccoon Jesus can conjure up a link?
The Drew Doughty Thread - HFBoards
But to his credit, Johnny came to his senses and the arguments in favor of Doughty swayed his opinion.
I also found the draft lottery thread from that year.
2008 NHL Draft Discussion Thread - HFBoards
Can't find the draft day thread from 2008, unfortunately. Maybe @Raccoon Jesus can conjure up a link?
The Lukeman
Opinionated
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I appreciate it. I've been stuck at home these past few days so I am trying my best to do a deeper dive on both prospects. Also taking a look at Lucas Raymond. I am loving his game.
I think I'll just link to this post in any discussion from now until October. Well done!
BigKing
Blake Out of Hell III: Back in to Hell
I really nailed it haha:
I think that Lombardi is hoping that the young guys elevate their game even more and that overall the Kings play like they did from January on. This would have them somewhat competing for a playoff spot and, if it all goes to hell like it did this year, we're looking at hopefully landing Hedman/Tavares.
Doughty might be put in the NHL this year, but he will be babied and the only reason he would be up is that Juniors just might not be enough of a challenge at this point.
I think the only guy that would have made a real impact for LA is Stamkos. I think Lombardi is fine with getting the defenseman and sucking again next year as long as the younger players keep showing improvement and more leadership.
Definitely did not expect a defenseman to come in at 18 and play like Doughty did. Even more than that, I did not expect the LA Kings to have a player like that.
I thought that Stamkos was the only player that had the immediate ability to get the Kings to sniff the playoffs. We were mired in the playoff drought at that point so I was getting pretty antsy.
kilowatt
the vibes are not immaculate
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Totally off topic but jeez, look at some of those names. Haven’t seen those in ten years. Is there a who’s who of name changes and now-defunct members?
That was an awesome breakdown and I loved reading it. I agree with most of what you said.
I think the only parts I disagree with is the ceiling, I think the skating/hands/creativity of Stutzle provides a higher ceiling. Whereas Byfield has a higher floor due to his size/skill combination and him coming from a more traditional development program. I think he is pretty much guaranteed to be a good/great player, but I think he is limited by his passive style of play. I'm not convinced that he can develop that aggressive style that people believe he will when looking at his size, it reminds me of an old Dean quote about taming a tiger/painting stripes on a kitty cat. Not a perfect example, but Forbort is 6' 4", 215 pounds and I don't think he really utilized his size the way people imagine a defenseman that big would have.
Thanks for responding though, I appreciated the read.
BigKing
Blake Out of Hell III: Back in to Hell
I appreciate your outlook on it. I just really like Byfield's skating and hands as well, plus the shot.
Stutzle gets the critique of being knocked off the puck easily but that can be remedied by just getting stronger. This is true...as true as it is that Byfield will use his body more once he grows in to it or whatever. We can assume Stutlze won't be soft once he is bigger and stronger but, again, he is coming from bigger ice and soft defense so it is just as much of a leap of faith.
One thing we can agree on though: I hope that is the last time I see Forbort mentioned in this thread.
The Lukeman
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Did some more homework on some of the potential prospects that can go early in the draft. One thing that I didn't expect to come up, is that, per 60 minutes, I think Raymond was more impressive than Stutzle.
There needs to be an adjustment made comparing Stutzle and Raymond, as one got top 6 and top PP minutes and the other got only bottom 6 minutes. When you adjust for each players production per 60, we find a couple interesting things. Lucas Raymond had a higher Goals per 60 min than Stutzle (.76 G/60 vs .64 G/60). Also, Tim Stutzle's Primary point scoring (G+Primary Assists) was only 20% better (1.91 P1/60 vs 1.53 P1/60), despite the DEL being a much weaker league than the SHL and Stutzle getting way more PP time. A great quote that Will from Scouching said "Lucas Raymond is more likely to produce Stutzle-like results in the DEL than Stutzle is to produce Raymond-like results in the SHL."
38% of all of Stutzle's points this season were secondary assists, compared to Raymond only having 20% points coming from secondary assists. This means that 80% of Raymonds production comes from either goals or primary assists, while Stutzle only had 68%. I cannot ignore, however, that Stutzle was producing at producing 3.09 Points/60 while Raymond was at 1.91 Points/60. That does hold some value here. But I expect this kind of result when comparing the SHL and DEL. I consider the SHL the 3rd best league in the world.
Another note: Tim Stutzle had an awful shooting %. I thought his shot was just okay with room for improvement, but the shooting % makes it seem worse. He was shooting 5.3% in the DEL, while Raymond was shooting at 12.5% in the SHL. (Side note: Byfield was shooting 27%, but that is an apples to oranges comparison). That to me is another major difference, because despite the SHL having much better goaltending/defense, Raymond was burying more than double of his shots. It either means Stutzle has poor shot selection, a bad shot, or a combination of both.
I like Raymond more than Stutzle, especially since he had a really good WJC showing. Just barely though. They could easily flip. I don't think either of them are close to Lafreniere or Byfield though (see my previous post a page back in this thread). If LA was at 3, Stutzle and Raymond would be my two players to choose from.
This post is not meant to be a diss of Stutzle, but more of an appreciation of Raymond's game. Stutzle is still an exceptional playmaker and has potential to be an elite winger in the NHL. But when Raymond was put on the ice compared to his peers, he excels even more. Raymond to me was the 2nd best player at the WJC, and many of his clips show elite anticipation for the game with a good mix of playmaking and scoring ability.
My top 5 goes:
1)Lafreniere (Obvious NHL ready player)
2)Byfield (Highest potential, elite shot, great size+speed combo)
3)Raymond (Elite IQ, Amazing hands, great playmaking+scoring ability)
4)Stutzle (Best playmaker, great skating, PP Quarterback)
5)Rossi (Mature game, dominated OHL, NHL ready)
Here is my data from DEL and SHL websites:
There needs to be an adjustment made comparing Stutzle and Raymond, as one got top 6 and top PP minutes and the other got only bottom 6 minutes. When you adjust for each players production per 60, we find a couple interesting things. Lucas Raymond had a higher Goals per 60 min than Stutzle (.76 G/60 vs .64 G/60). Also, Tim Stutzle's Primary point scoring (G+Primary Assists) was only 20% better (1.91 P1/60 vs 1.53 P1/60), despite the DEL being a much weaker league than the SHL and Stutzle getting way more PP time. A great quote that Will from Scouching said "Lucas Raymond is more likely to produce Stutzle-like results in the DEL than Stutzle is to produce Raymond-like results in the SHL."
38% of all of Stutzle's points this season were secondary assists, compared to Raymond only having 20% points coming from secondary assists. This means that 80% of Raymonds production comes from either goals or primary assists, while Stutzle only had 68%. I cannot ignore, however, that Stutzle was producing at producing 3.09 Points/60 while Raymond was at 1.91 Points/60. That does hold some value here. But I expect this kind of result when comparing the SHL and DEL. I consider the SHL the 3rd best league in the world.
Another note: Tim Stutzle had an awful shooting %. I thought his shot was just okay with room for improvement, but the shooting % makes it seem worse. He was shooting 5.3% in the DEL, while Raymond was shooting at 12.5% in the SHL. (Side note: Byfield was shooting 27%, but that is an apples to oranges comparison). That to me is another major difference, because despite the SHL having much better goaltending/defense, Raymond was burying more than double of his shots. It either means Stutzle has poor shot selection, a bad shot, or a combination of both.
I like Raymond more than Stutzle, especially since he had a really good WJC showing. Just barely though. They could easily flip. I don't think either of them are close to Lafreniere or Byfield though (see my previous post a page back in this thread). If LA was at 3, Stutzle and Raymond would be my two players to choose from.
This post is not meant to be a diss of Stutzle, but more of an appreciation of Raymond's game. Stutzle is still an exceptional playmaker and has potential to be an elite winger in the NHL. But when Raymond was put on the ice compared to his peers, he excels even more. Raymond to me was the 2nd best player at the WJC, and many of his clips show elite anticipation for the game with a good mix of playmaking and scoring ability.
My top 5 goes:
1)Lafreniere (Obvious NHL ready player)
2)Byfield (Highest potential, elite shot, great size+speed combo)
3)Raymond (Elite IQ, Amazing hands, great playmaking+scoring ability)
4)Stutzle (Best playmaker, great skating, PP Quarterback)
5)Rossi (Mature game, dominated OHL, NHL ready)
Here is my data from DEL and SHL websites:
raswilliam
Registered User
bland
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One thing about all the talk about all these prospects, not just the two we are debating, is that they DID produce and DID take their opportunities regardless of the various circumstances.
I keep reading a knock on Rossi that he produced on a stacked team against inferior opposition on a league that has devalued defensive structure. Well, guess what, it takes a talented player to be able to not just play well with other talented players, but to be the best of a talented bunch AND make the others even better.
Byfield didn't have anywhere near the same support, but he did produce and it was against the same poor defenses, which never really gets mentioned much. We do know that he looked a whole lot better on the rush when he dictated the play alone. Was that be because he didn't have similar talent to play with, was it because he had such amazing physical gifts that he could dominate 1 on 1 against poor defense, or does he have a limited ability to dominate in set situations?
Stützle DID produce well in a league with a low level of overall talent, but it was experienced opposition. Point is, these kids can only play against who is in front of them. They all did, and they all dominated in different aspects of the game. I am not concerned one bit about who they were playing against, they all passed the tests given.
Raymond is different, and while he is sublimely talented, I really do believe his lack of playing time as a reason to not consider him at #2. There is just too little reference material to be certain enough to pick him this early. His tourney play was very impressive, but not so to create a noticable gap between him and the other available options. At #5 or 6, sure. 2? No.
I keep reading a knock on Rossi that he produced on a stacked team against inferior opposition on a league that has devalued defensive structure. Well, guess what, it takes a talented player to be able to not just play well with other talented players, but to be the best of a talented bunch AND make the others even better.
Byfield didn't have anywhere near the same support, but he did produce and it was against the same poor defenses, which never really gets mentioned much. We do know that he looked a whole lot better on the rush when he dictated the play alone. Was that be because he didn't have similar talent to play with, was it because he had such amazing physical gifts that he could dominate 1 on 1 against poor defense, or does he have a limited ability to dominate in set situations?
Stützle DID produce well in a league with a low level of overall talent, but it was experienced opposition. Point is, these kids can only play against who is in front of them. They all did, and they all dominated in different aspects of the game. I am not concerned one bit about who they were playing against, they all passed the tests given.
Raymond is different, and while he is sublimely talented, I really do believe his lack of playing time as a reason to not consider him at #2. There is just too little reference material to be certain enough to pick him this early. His tourney play was very impressive, but not so to create a noticable gap between him and the other available options. At #5 or 6, sure. 2? No.
robitaillefan
Bababooey,Tatatoothy
Ray Martyniuk
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kingsboy11
Maestro
I found the thread, but doesn't look like it was ever archived. I'll do some more digging, but at the moment doesn't look like its here. The earliest thread that I found was from 2008 about Alec Martinez, but the only reason its here was it got bumped in 2014 for a couple goals that he scored that year.
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