Prospect Info: Who does LA pick #2? Part 2 To Byfield or to Stutzle? That is the question

[KINGS17]

Yep, agreed. I don't see anyone expecting anything more from QB here on the speed of the development path. Malkin didn't come to the NHL until he was 20. He has a similar late birthday like QB and drafted at 17. Even then, Malkin was/is exceptional. HOF numbers right off the bat in the NHL. Jumbo also a later birthday in July and Boston immediately put him on the big club. At 19 years old he was .5 PPG, at 20 it was .75 PPG, at 21 1PPG. Kopitar also 17 on draft night, spent a season marinating in the SEL before coming over. All big centers who were younger than most of their draft class. Nobody expected them to be stars at 19. At 20 is when you can expect to see real impact. At least 5 years for QB? I would expect he's going to be impactful before he's 22 years old unless you're expecting 100 point seasons out of him, which is a tall order for any drafted prospect.

Edit: And holy crap some of you are DRASTICALLY exaggerating QB's current level of development. He's not a project, people.

Yes, I think when Byfield is 20 years old is a fair amount of time to expect to see him on an NHL roster. He doesn't need to be in the NHL next season though for me to believe he is the best pick for the Kings at #2 overall.

 

[Lt Dan]

Yes, I think when Byfield is 20 years old is a fair amount of time to expect to see him on an NHL roster. He doesn't need to be in the NHL next season though for me to believe he is the best pick for the Kings at #2 overall.

indeed

and it's not like we aren't going to compete for a playoff spot next season either

 

[Mats26]

If you read what I wrote, I suggested Byfield to stick in the OHL for one more season. The thought of him taking five years to develop though is ridiculous. The Kings also didn't have a great class of prospects after drafting Schenn in 2009, but Voynov should've been with the team from the start of the 2011-12 season. Hickey was lost to waivers because they took their sweet time with him and preferred Davis Drewiske and Keaton Ellerby over him.

Colin Miller should've been given a shot in 2014-15, but we were blessed with Jamie McBain instead. They clearly didn't have any plans for Erik Cernak, who made the Lightning roster as a 21-year-old skating top four minutes.

A lot of the others such as the likes of Auger and Mersch aren't even worth discussing since all they turned out to be were minor leaguers, so they definitely weren't overcooked and ripened for the NHL since they never turned into NHLers.

It still doesn't take away that those who suggest that Byfield needs five years to develop are still hanging onto those words from Lombardi years ago that suggested having a prospect over marinate is never a bad thing. That may have been somewhat true in the past, but that philosophy doesn't apply for top prospects.

The epidemic and how many games they play this year will afffect their development path somewhat

What is more ridiculous?

18 years - Juniors + WJC (How many actual games does he play during this epidemic will be a factor if he is ready at 19 for the Pros)
19 years - Juniors\Pro\NHL Development Staff call. I see him turning Pro if they feel he is ready.
20 Years - First full year of NHL with limited roles and working on his game.
21 Years - Should be establishing himself as our true 2C with Vilardi\Turcotte moving to wing or 3C.
22 Years - Kopitar UFA , Byfield takes over the 1C (Potential should be in reach and production increases with more ice time)


OR

He is a 1C Franchise PPG at 19/20 in the NHL.

 

[BigKing]

If you read what I wrote, I suggested Byfield to stick in the OHL for one more season. The thought of him taking five years to develop though is ridiculous. The Kings also didn't have a great class of prospects after drafting Schenn in 2009, but Voynov should've been with the team from the start of the 2011-12 season. Hickey was lost to waivers because they took their sweet time with him and preferred Davis Drewiske and Keaton Ellerby over him.

Colin Miller should've been given a shot in 2014-15, but we were blessed with Jamie McBain instead. They clearly didn't have any plans for Erik Cernak, who made the Lightning roster as a 21-year-old skating top four minutes.

A lot of the others such as the likes of Auger and Mersch aren't even worth discussing since all they turned out to be were minor leaguers, so they definitely weren't overcooked and ripened for the NHL since they never turned into NHLers.

It still doesn't take away that those who suggest that Byfield needs five years to develop are still hanging onto those words from Lombardi years ago that suggested having a prospect over marinate is never a bad thing. That may have been somewhat true in the past, but that philosophy doesn't apply for top prospects.

Even if you agree that Byfield doesn't have to be in the NHL next season, I was responding to the Lombardi dig that isn't really rooted in reality.

This five year thing is being really blown out of proportion as well. The poster that said it today considers NHL seasons to be part of Byfield's five years v. Byfield needing five years to simply make the NHL. This whole five year premise is that he will be at peak production and development at age 22.

In regards to Lombardi, we don't really see anyone being ruined because they played an extra 40 games in Manchester like Voynov but we do look at guys like Clifford and Moller and wonder if they could have been better if they had more time developing v. being in the NHL. Colin Miller is really splitting hairs since he still played 20 games for Providence in 2015-16 while Cernak means nothing when discussing Lombardi's development timelines since he traded him but Cernak did spend two years in the OHL and a full year in the AHL before making the NHL.

I don't think there are many cases of Lombardi holding players back and, if he did, it would generally range from a half-to-full season. I don't think Lombardi purposely over-marinated a prospect just to do it. Sure, he wants a guy to "ride the bus" and have that experience but he didn't want them to do it for five years or something. Even the Voynov reference is tough because he played 54 games in 2012 and then every playoff game. His first game that season was the 5th game of the season when he was 21 years old.

 

[apocalypse]

I think there is a psychological aspect of being thrown in the NHL right away. If a prospect doesn't produce they have a chance of getting down on themselves and shutting down. I think you should play that into account if you're a GM. I think there's a wrong way to develop players and a right way. Hopefully, LA chooses the right way.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

There's no rule book that states what is right or wrong for a prospect to develop. It's all dependent on the player and how much he can handle. Bjornfot didn't look out of place in his brief NHL stint as a rookie, but there was no need to thrust him on the blueline of a struggling team. Doughty was earning big minutes on one of the worst teams in the league and that didn't seem to stunt his development as an 18-year-old.

I'm not suggesting Byfield play for the Kings next season, but I'm also not going to rule him out at the same time. I just listed second overall selections over the past 15 years who quickly made the jump to the NHL. It's a pretty safe bet that Byfield will be in the NHL by the time he's 19. He's already spent two years in the OHL, I'm not sure if he has much left to prove there, but maybe adding more to his plate in a leadership role could serve him well in Sudbury, or elsewhere should they opt to trade his rights.

After graduating from juniors, I don't envision him spending any time in the AHL. Want to know why? Not a single one of the 15 former second overall picks I listed spent a season in the AHL. In fact, only one of them even played in the AHL, and that was a 19-year-old Sam Reinhart who got three games in. That is the only former second overall selected player in the last 15 years to appear in the AHL.

 

[BigKing]

@Ziggy Stardust

I agree there isn't a one-size fits all. Some players are special and can go right away but most are not which is why I generally lean towards at least one more year of maturation before hitting the NHL.

Byfield is good enough to play next year but, all things considered, he probably shouldn't IMO. At least no more than the 9 games unless he is a force of nature.

 

[Sol]

I think there is a psychological aspect of being thrown in the NHL right away. If a prospect doesn't produce they have a chance of getting down on themselves and shutting down. I think you should play that into account if you're a GM. I think there's a wrong way to develop players and a right way. Hopefully, LA chooses the right way.

Yeah but in LA he's not going to be number one C. That's a big weight off his shoulders

 

[apocalypse]

I'm salivating at a line of Vilardi - Byfield - Kempe.

 

[Rusty Batch]

I'm salivating at a line of Vilardi - Byfield - Kempe.

You had me until Kempe

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Kempe did look good with Vilardi and Frk, but I think he’s best suited as a third line winger who can chip in and hopefully get under the opponents skin. Kind of like a less physical Sean Avery in terms of playing style, but without the douchebaggery.

 

[2-4 Slashin]

This board is notorious for thinking that all prospects need years and years of development before they make the NHL. And now that Byfield is in our cross hairs they are projecting that on him.

The reality is that Byfield is widely regarded as one of the most NHL ready prospects in this draft. Out of the prospects most likely to be able to play in the NHL next year it seems to be Laf, Byfield, Rossi, Lundell. I don't really hear Stutzle in that group very often.

I definitely agree with the sentiment that this board believes in marinating our players too much. However, I have not read anywhere where Byfield is a draft prospect who is expected to play in the NHL next year. In fact I’ve read warnings about throwing him into the NHL prematurely if nothing else. He has size and skill but he doesn’t have strength yet for that body, when it comes to playing in the NHL. But I have read that’s Stutzle “might“ be ready for the NHL next year. I think it’s been a pretty agreed upon school of thought, that Byfield is not NHL ready for next year. Though it’s agreed that he has the skill set and the size to become an elite NHL player.

 

[Token]

In the past dozen seasons only two players drafted 2OA got sent down to marinate.

Sam Reinhart and Ryan Murray.

Worth noting neither 2012 or 2014 draft classes were particularly strong.

Byfield WILL be on an NHL roster next season.

 

[johnjm22]

Has there ever been a 2OA pick with less experience than Byfield?

COVID plus the hand injury really cut his season short.

With his lack of experience and age, I don't love the idea of him being a full time NHLer next year.

 

[yankeeking]

Has Stützle played anymore games lately, we got that one but no other highlites

 

[King'sPawn]

Has there ever been a 2OA pick with less experience than Byfield?

COVID plus the hand injury really cut his season short.

With his lack of experience and age, I don't love the idea of him being a full time NHLer next year.

Nolan Patrick played 33 games in his draft year.

Alex Galchenyuk played 2 games his draft year and went No. 3 overall.

 

[johnjm22]

Nolan Patrick played 33 games in his draft year.

Alex Galchenyuk played 2 games his draft year and went No. 3 overall.

Patrick had way more experience than Byfield.

 

[Statto]

Yeah but in LA he's not going to be number one C. That's a big weight off his shoulders

This is it. He probably comes in at 3C behind Kopitar and Vilardi, so it will be very easy to manage his minutes and more importantly the situations he plays in. He won’t be expected to be our saviour from day 1 and can take on responsibility when it becomes natural for him to do so.

I think the late start means he will have had some extra time to fill out his frame and mature, mitigating the fact he’s so young in his draft class. The more I think about it, the more I think he’d be up at the big club from day 1. There will be plenty of opportunity to shelter him if needed and they can send him to the WJC to give him some big minutes if needed. Our depth at C is the perfect situation to bring him into. Then down the line we either slide one of Vilardi or Turcotte to wing or trade them for a winger if they can’t adapt.

 

[Sparky206]

This is it. He probably comes in at 3C behind Kopitar and Vilardi, so it will be very easy to manage his minutes and more importantly the situations he plays in. He won’t be expected to be our saviour from day 1 and can take on responsibility when it becomes natural for him to do so.

I think the late start means he will have had some extra time to fill out his frame and mature, mitigating the fact he’s so young in his draft class. The more I think about it, the more I think he’d be up at the big club from day 1. There will be plenty of opportunity to shelter him if needed and they can send him to the WJC to give him some big minutes if needed. Our depth at C is the perfect situation to bring him into. Then down the line we either slide one of Vilardi or Turcotte to wing or trade them for a winger if they can’t adapt.

I agree, 3C with Carter on a wing to mentor him shift to shift.

 

[KINGS17]

The epidemic and how many games they play this year will afffect their development path somewhat

What is more ridiculous?

18 years - Juniors + WJC (How many actual games does he play during this epidemic will be a factor if he is ready at 19 for the Pros)
19 years - Juniors\Pro\NHL Development Staff call. I see him turning Pro if they feel he is ready.
20 Years - First full year of NHL with limited roles and working on his game.
21 Years - Should be establishing himself as our true 2C with Vilardi\Turcotte moving to wing or 3C.
22 Years - Kopitar UFA , Byfield takes over the 1C (Potential should be in reach and production increases with more ice time)


OR

He is a 1C Franchise PPG at 19/20 in the NHL.

More likely your first scenario, and it would be great if it happened.

 

[Peter James Bond III]

I'm salivating at a line of Vilardi - Byfield - Kempe.

I'd rather see Kaliyev with Vilardi and Byfield.

To Kempe's credit, he has never really played consistently with 2 skilled linemates. Say what you will about his inconsistency and lack of
any elite hockey sense...but he always busts his azz all shift long and certainly does have elite skating and (borderline) top 6 skills...you cannot
really say he cannot finish, as when he was 21 and the only time he had decent linemates for 40+ games (Toffoli + Pearson) he
had a hat trick and was putting up decent points. (without any PP time that year) Also, I know he won a game (or 2?) with
sick shootout goals this past season. I would say Kempe would emerge as a 40-50 point producer, with consistent, skilled
linemates. Kind of like how Iafallo finally began to emerge this past season (around December) as more of a top 6 LW.
If Kempe had 2.5 years of playing line 1 with Kopitar / Brown, like Alex did, he would have had as much or more success as Alex.
Alex was pretty damn lucky, to get 2 years to play LW 1 without really belonging there. He has now emerged and a key player.

That said, I think Kempe on line 3, will have a higher level of talent to play with, as the Kings are about to infuse Vilardi, Turcotte.
Byfield / Stutzle, and perhaps Kupari, Fagemo into the top 9. Line 3 will now have more talent than anytime since the last cup.

Kupari is kind of flying under the radar, I think. He has kind of got lost, after his unfortunate WJC knee injury..plus, not-so-stellar
beginnings in Ontario. Plus, the newer, shinier toys like Vilardi, Turcotte, Kaliyev + about to add #2 overall elite prospect, has put Kupari off the radar, atm.
I was watching some of Kupari's highlights this past week and his skating and skills are pretty ill....it will just take anohter
development season, with him getting into more structured play and get out of the 1 on 1 playing mode. He MUST get
out of that mindset and MO. I think the Ontario coach hire will be crucial, in bringing in a coach to mold and develop
the Turcotte's, Fagemo's, Kupari's, Thomas', to develop their pro games. Any word on rumblings of that hire?

A futre third line of Kempe / Turcotte / Kupari could be interesting. Or Fagemo in there.

 

[cyclones22]

The crazy thing about all of this is we're so focused on #2 overall that we've got 4 out of the top 60 picks and 6 of the top 77 or so. With the way the team has drafted as of late, there are likely going to be 3 or 4 more players who we could be raving about snapping up after draft day. The pipeline is going to be overflowing. That's when you make the move next offseason to grab another core piece on D or at forward from a team that has a disgruntled player or one they can't afford to keep.

 

[kilowatt]

I'm salivating at a line of Vilardi - Byfield - Kempe.

Dream bigger!

Kaliyev - Kopitar - Vilardi
Turcotte - Byfield - Madden
Kempe - Anderson-Dolan - Kupari

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

As examples of how much development happens after drafting--Dach and Kakko both looked fantastic today after looking good-but-kinda-unready all year.

That's probably what I'd expect from Byfield. I think the layoff really helped those two or we'd be seeing this next year instead.

 

[lumbergh]

Dream bigger!

Kaliyev - Kopitar - Vilardi
Turcotte - Byfield - Madden
Kempe - Anderson-Dolan - Kupari

I’m hoping for Akil Thomas to be in that top nine, with JAD in 4C, but otherwise that looks hot.