Prospect Info: Who does LA pick #2? Part 2 To Byfield or to Stutzle? That is the question

[AzKing]

If we hypothetically assume he's only a winger, I have Stutzle slightly below Raymond. So my 1-2-3 would be Laf, Raymond, Stutzle.

I may have missed it somewhere but can you detail the elements of Raymond's game that have you listing him at #2?

 

[KopitarFAN]

Only 70 more days, at least we're about to have meaningful games to watch.

 

[Sol]

A player's ability to come in and immediately play next season isn't high on my list of evaluation criteria. Those who have that high on their list fantasize about Kopitar hoisting the cup someday as captain of the Kings, which is very unlikely.

Wait, what? Prospect readiness isn't important to you? Do you feel comfortable with uncertainty? Prospect readiness is actually important for me because it's very common that players don't hit the ceiling people are expecting them to hit.

Prospect readiness is important to me because the boom and bust potential is easier to me to see.

I agree and it shouldn't but let's be realistic about our expectations. If we select QB the development curve will be alot longer. He will need to go through the proper development path, good pro coaching and eventually Kopitar's mentoring. We will need to expect some growing pains and how QB reacts and deals with his growing frame and his own expectations will ultimatley affect how close he can reach his ceiling. If Malkin is his ceiling then we need to temper our expectations that it might not be reached for at least 5 years or more. I feel he will take the Joe Thorton development route when he started off in Boston. Need to be patient with the big and skilled guys as the rewards might come later.

And that's a good thing to have such an unpolished player at number 2? How is a number 2 player that far off from the NHL.


I'm seriously not comfortable with the Kings choosing another unpolished player at number 2 and hoping he can hold Kopitars jock.

Ill be happy with Stutzle or Byfield, but Stutzle seems like the safer bet to me if Byfield is so far off.

 

[Sol]

Am I in the minority who thinks it's important for a player going top 3 to be close to their ceiling, rather than not be close to it?

If Byfield is going to need a lot of development, how does that make him attractive? Seems like you go for boom or bust players in mid first round. Not in top 3

 

[cyclones22]

I am a patient man, and said so many times back in 2009-2011 when people were calling for Lombardi's head.

Yep, agreed. I don't see anyone expecting anything more from QB here on the speed of the development path. Malkin didn't come to the NHL until he was 20. He has a similar late birthday like QB and drafted at 17. Even then, Malkin was/is exceptional. HOF numbers right off the bat in the NHL. Jumbo also a later birthday in July and Boston immediately put him on the big club. At 19 years old he was .5 PPG, at 20 it was .75 PPG, at 21 1PPG. Kopitar also 17 on draft night, spent a season marinating in the SEL before coming over. All big centers who were younger than most of their draft class. Nobody expected them to be stars at 19. At 20 is when you can expect to see real impact. At least 5 years for QB? I would expect he's going to be impactful before he's 22 years old unless you're expecting 100 point seasons out of him, which is a tall order for any drafted prospect.

Edit: And holy crap some of you are DRASTICALLY exaggerating QB's current level of development. He's not a project, people.

 

[BigKing]

Am I in the minority who thinks it's important for a player going top 3 to be close to their ceiling, rather than not be close to it?

If Byfield is going to need a lot of development, how does that make him attractive? Seems like you go for boom or bust players in mid first round. Not in top 3

Byfield isn't a "boom or bust" pick: it's more that the boom potential is probably higher than anyone in the draft but tossing him into the NHL next season probably isn't the best way to get him to hit his ceiling.

Just because he has sky-high potential doesn't mean he's currently garbage or something when compared to his peers: he's still currently one of the best players in this draft.

If he was born a month later, he's most likely the shoo-in 1OA in the 2021 draft, everyone would be talking about him going to the NHL immediately and he'd now be "closer to his ceiling".

There is nothing wrong with "prospect readiness" meaning the player would benefit from one more year of development before playing in the NHL. That being said, the unusual hockey calendar for next season allows for the Kings to play some fun games with Byfield in the form of 9 NHL games, WJC and I think maybe a few AHL games like they did with Brayden Schenn. It's been outlined in the last thread but there is a path to get him some action beyond only the OHL. You also don't burn a year off of his ELC in what will be another year of not contending for a Cup no matter what the optimistic ones on here think.

Drafting Stutzle because the belief he is the better player now and in the future is fine: drafting him because he can contribute to the LA Kings 2021 season more than Byfield would be a f***ing travesty.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

I can't remember the last time a potential second overall pick took 5 years to develop.

Kakko, Svechnikov, Nolan Patrick, Laine, Eichel, Reinhart, Barkov, Ryan Murray, Landeskog, Seguin, Hedman, Doughty, van Riemsdyk, Jordan Staal, Bobby Ryan

Those are the last 15 players selected 2nd overall. How many took 5 years to develop? C'mon people, do some research. Does anyone honestly believe Byfield won't reach his potential until he's in his mid-2os? That's simply ridiculous.

He'll be in the NHL when he's 19. It would be a waste of time for him to play in juniors after next season, and how many of those listed second overall picks spent time in the AHL?

 

[Steve Zissou]

Byfield is the new Yakupov. Pass it on.

 

[Rusty Batch]

Am I in the minority who thinks it's important for a player going top 3 to be close to their ceiling, rather than not be close to it?

If Byfield is going to need a lot of development, how does that make him attractive? Seems like you go for boom or bust players in mid first round. Not in top 3

This board is notorious for thinking that all prospects need years and years of development before they make the NHL. And now that Byfield is in our cross hairs they are projecting that on him.

The reality is that Byfield is widely regarded as one of the most NHL ready prospects in this draft. Out of the prospects most likely to be able to play in the NHL next year it seems to be Laf, Byfield, Rossi, Lundell. I don't really hear Stutzle in that group very often.

 

[Mats26]

Yep, agreed. I don't see anyone expecting anything more from QB here on the speed of the development path. Malkin didn't come to the NHL until he was 20. He has a similar late birthday like QB and drafted at 17. Even then, Malkin was/is exceptional. HOF numbers right off the bat in the NHL. Jumbo also a later birthday in July and Boston immediately put him on the big club. At 19 years old he was .5 PPG, at 20 it was .75 PPG, at 21 1PPG. Kopitar also 17 on draft night, spent a season marinating in the SEL before coming over. All big centers who were younger than most of their draft class. Nobody expected them to be stars at 19. At 20 is when you can expect to see real impact. At least 5 years for QB? I would expect he's going to be impactful before he's 22 years old unless you're expecting 100 point seasons out of him, which is a tall order for any drafted prospect.

Edit: And holy crap some of you are DRASTICALLY exaggerating QB's current level of development. He's not a project, people.

With the delay of camps and leagues it is very possible some propsects will take a little more time to develop and adapt to their changing frames. If QB makes the team at 19, by the time he is 22 he should be closing in on his ceiling. That's 5 years of junior\pro development. Not sure why you whould call that a project. Nobody should expect him to be Malkin-like PPG player at 20 years old.



Thortons years.. I see similar projections to QB: ~50 avg points first few years untill he breaks out to a PPG pace at ~22 years old. He he then surpases that pace I will be estatic.

1997-98	Boston Bruins	NHL	55	3	4	7	19	-6	6	0	0	0	9
1998-99	Boston Bruins	NHL	81	16	25	41	69	3	11	3	6	9	4
1999-00	Boston Bruins	NHL	81	23	37	60	82	-5	--	--	--	--	--
2000-01	Boston Bruins	NHL	72	37	34	71	107	-4	--	--	--	--	--
2001-02	Boston Bruins	NHL	66	22	46	68	127	7	6	2	4	6	10
2002-03	Boston Bruins	NHL	77	36	65	101	109	12	5	1	2	3	4
2003-04	Boston Bruins	NHL	77	23	50	73	98	18	7	0	0	0	14

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

 

[apocalypse]

I think that a player's development staggers when he is the go to guy on a team that struggles. With that being said, a player can also stagger when on a good team and said player struggles. I think with QB, you let him incubate in the CHL for awhile then stick him in the SEL in Sweden, a la Kopitar style. I don't think you bring QB up that quickly to the A. Just my thoughts.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

This board is notorious for thinking that all prospects need years and years of development before they make the NHL. And now that Byfield is in our cross hairs they are projecting that on him.

The reality is that Byfield is widely regarded as one of the most NHL ready prospects in this draft. Out of the prospects most likely to be able to play in the NHL next year it seems to be Laf, Byfield, Rossi, Lundell. I don't really hear Stutzle in that group very often.

They tend to be the old dinosaurs who take Dean Lombardi's words as gospel and think prospects need 5-6 years to overcook in the minors. That's the antiquated view of player development.

 

[cyclones22]

They tend to be the old dinosaurs who take Dean Lombardi's words as gospel and think prospects need 5-6 years to overcook in the minors. That's the antiquated view of player development.

That's what they did with Forbert and he came out of the oven a cream puff instead of a 7 layer cake.

 

[Sol]

Byfield isn't a "boom or bust" pick: it's more that the boom potential is probably higher than anyone in the draft but tossing him into the NHL next season probably isn't the best way to get him to hit his ceiling.

Just because he has sky-high potential doesn't mean he's currently garbage or something when compared to his peers: he's still currently one of the best players in this draft.

If he was born a month later, he's most likely the shoo-in 1OA in the 2021 draft, everyone would be talking about him going to the NHL immediately and he'd now be "closer to his ceiling".

There is nothing wrong with "prospect readiness" meaning the player would benefit from one more year of development before playing in the NHL. That being said, the unusual hockey calendar for next season allows for the Kings to play some fun games with Byfield in the form of 9 NHL games, WJC and I think maybe a few AHL games like they did with Brayden Schenn. It's been outlined in the last thread but there is a path to get him some action beyond only the OHL. You also don't burn a year off of his ELC in what will be another year of not contending for a Cup no matter what the optimistic ones on here think.

Drafting Stutzle because the belief he is the better player now and in the future is fine: drafting him because he can contribute to the LA Kings 2021 season more than Byfield would be a f***ing travesty.

No one is suggesting getting Stutzle now because he'd be able to make the Kings a better team asap, my deal is, the way I'm seeing some folks talking about letting Byfield stay down like he's some oaf who's gonna take a while to hit his potential seems like a waste of a second overall pick. If you're drafting 2nd OA, and the guy is years away from the NHL then you didn't draft the right player.

Stutzle is supposedly more closer to his ceiling while Byfield isn't by that logic. And if that's the case, on what earth would you choose Byfield?

 

[BigKing]

They tend to be the old dinosaurs who take Dean Lombardi's words as gospel and think prospects need 5-6 years to overcook in the minors. That's the antiquated view of player development.

Who are the good players that Lombardi had "overcook" for 5-6 years in the minors? Hickey? Is he "good"? Voynov played three seasons in Manchester but he also got to play against men immediately at age 18. Bernier maybe but that is because Quick took the job. Even then, he was the opening night starter for the Kings in his D+2 season. You have Forbort but Forbort sucks and it isn't because he didn't go to the NHL right away.

Clifford and Doughty played right away.

Kopitar/Simmonds/Moller were all in the NHL in their D+2 seasons. Schenn got games in both his D+1 and D+2 seasons and then Philly had him split time between the NHL and AHL. Quick got an NHL taste in his D+3 year which isn't wild for a goalie. Has Blake been making a mistake letting Petersen "cook" since the guy was drafted in 2013? Toffoli is playing playoff hockey in his D+3 year for the defending champs after one "season" in Manchester. Pearson was drafted 2nd time around but got in a 2013 playoff game in his D+1(2) year and then is an NHL player helping win a Cup in his D+2(3) year.

What we really have is a syndrome of wanting the new exciting thing now rather than later. Nothing is more exciting than a potential top prospect and the dream is that all of them step in immediately and contribute. Those of us that are fine with some marinating aren't clamoring for even three years in the lower levels but the fact is that most 18 year olds aren't good enough to play in the NHL and it isn't a developmental league. Now a 2nd overall pick? I expect them to be full-time NHL players by their D+2 year, excluding goalies.

Anyways, Blake isn't tossing any of his draft picks into the NHL immediately either. Bjornfot could have stayed up all year but Blake's been smart about it. Vilardi probably is in the NHL in his D+2 season if not for the injuries but he's probably the best player Blake's drafted. Kupari is a 1st round pick that didn't look great at the AHL level.

I mean, it feels like Blake is developing prospects just like Lombardi did and he's lauded for it while Lombardi is a guy that likes his steaks well done. If Byfield blows the doors off of camp and pre-season, Blake might have him stay up in the NHL just like with how Doughty wasn't going to get better by dominating the OHL again. In the grand scheme of what the Kings are building towards (i.e. another high pick next year) along with Byfield's development, I don't think that him not being a full-time NHL player next season cripples his development.

 

[BigKing]

No one is suggesting getting Stutzle now because he'd be able to make the Kings a better team asap, my deal is, the way I'm seeing some folks talking about letting Byfield stay down like he's some oaf who's gonna take a while to hit his potential seems like a waste of a second overall pick. If you're drafting 2nd OA, and the guy is years away from the NHL then you didn't draft the right player.

Stutzle is supposedly more closer to his ceiling while Byfield isn't by that logic. And if that's the case, on what earth would you choose Byfield?

But Byfield isn't a long-term project. You are correct that you don't draft projects at 2OA: you trade up to draft them ahead of Tarasenko in the mid-first round hahaha.

Rorsch is concerned with this pick not contributing immediately. It is a very small contingent that thinks they are close after the seven game winning streak to end last season so they would like for the 2OA to be an NHL player next season.

 

[cyclones22]

Oh they left Forbort in the oven because once they turned on the oven light, they wanted to puke and thought maybe some char would help

 

[Sol]

But Byfield isn't a long-term project. You are correct that you don't draft projects at 2OA: you trade up to draft them ahead of Tarasenko in the mid-first round hahaha.

Rorsch is concerned with this pick not contributing immediately. It is a very small contingent that thinks they are close after the seven game winning streak to end last season so they would like for the 2OA to be an NHL player next season.

Even if he does play next season right. I get that Kopitar is old, but Kopitar will nevertheless be the best person for someone like Byfield to be by. And to be sheltered by.

All I've heard about him and seen is that he's got great hockey IQ and tools, and I think for a player that's similar to Kopitars archetype, that the best thing he needs is the mentorship.

 

[johnjm22]

Didn't someone post around here that Stutzle will be ineligible to play next season because he can't sign by the required deadline due to the late draft?

 

[johnjm22]

If Stutzle/Byfield's ELC doesn't start until the season after next, then their contracts would end the same year as Kopitar's current contract. That would work out quite nicely IMO.

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

Didn't someone post around here that Stutzle will be ineligible to play next season because he can't sign by the required deadline due to the late draft?

Yepp, that is correct, he is still under contract with Mannheim.

Theoretically I think Mannheim and Stützle could agree to mutually terminate his contract, but I think it's a low probability of that happening.

 

[johnjm22]

Yepp, that is correct, he is still under contract with Mannheim.

Theoretically I think Mannheim and Stützle could agree to mutually terminate his contract, but I think it's a low probability of that happening.

So the whole argument about Stutzle being in the NHL before Byfeild is a moot point anyways.

Byfield will at least get a few games in the beginning of the NHL season.

 

[Statto]

Didn't someone post around here that Stutzle will be ineligible to play next season because he can't sign by the required deadline due to the late draft?

I’ve seen an article to that effect.

 

[SwedeChristoffer]

So the whole argument about Stutzle being in the NHL before Byfeild is a moot point anyways.

Byfield will at least get a few games in the beginning of the NHL season.

Yepp, however the European players probably could come in and get their 9 game try-out at the end of the season since the european leagues probably will finish before NHL does.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Who are the good players that Lombardi had "overcook" for 5-6 years in the minors? Hickey? Is he "good"? Voynov played three seasons in Manchester but he also got to play against men immediately at age 18. Bernier maybe but that is because Quick took the job. Even then, he was the opening night starter for the Kings in his D+2 season. You have Forbort but Forbort sucks and it isn't because he didn't go to the NHL right away.

Clifford and Doughty played right away.

Kopitar/Simmonds/Moller were all in the NHL in their D+2 seasons. Schenn got games in both his D+1 and D+2 seasons and then Philly had him split time between the NHL and AHL. Quick got an NHL taste in his D+3 year which isn't wild for a goalie. Has Blake been making a mistake letting Petersen "cook" since the guy was drafted in 2013? Toffoli is playing playoff hockey in his D+3 year for the defending champs after one "season" in Manchester. Pearson was drafted 2nd time around but got in a 2013 playoff game in his D+1(2) year and then is an NHL player helping win a Cup in his D+2(3) year.

What we really have is a syndrome of wanting the new exciting thing now rather than later. Nothing is more exciting than a potential top prospect and the dream is that all of them step in immediately and contribute. Those of us that are fine with some marinating aren't clamoring for even three years in the lower levels but the fact is that most 18 year olds aren't good enough to play in the NHL and it isn't a developmental league. Now a 2nd overall pick? I expect them to be full-time NHL players by their D+2 year, excluding goalies.

Anyways, Blake isn't tossing any of his draft picks into the NHL immediately either. Bjornfot could have stayed up all year but Blake's been smart about it. Vilardi probably is in the NHL in his D+2 season if not for the injuries but he's probably the best player Blake's drafted. Kupari is a 1st round pick that didn't look great at the AHL level.

I mean, it feels like Blake is developing prospects just like Lombardi did and he's lauded for it while Lombardi is a guy that likes his steaks well done. If Byfield blows the doors off of camp and pre-season, Blake might have him stay up in the NHL just like with how Doughty wasn't going to get better by dominating the OHL again. In the grand scheme of what the Kings are building towards (i.e. another high pick next year) along with Byfield's development, I don't think that him not being a full-time NHL player next season cripples his development.

If you read what I wrote, I suggested Byfield to stick in the OHL for one more season. The thought of him taking five years to develop though is ridiculous. The Kings also didn't have a great class of prospects after drafting Schenn in 2009, but Voynov should've been with the team from the start of the 2011-12 season. Hickey was lost to waivers because they took their sweet time with him and preferred Davis Drewiske and Keaton Ellerby over him.

Colin Miller should've been given a shot in 2014-15, but we were blessed with Jamie McBain instead. They clearly didn't have any plans for Erik Cernak, who made the Lightning roster as a 21-year-old skating top four minutes.

A lot of the others such as the likes of Auger and Mersch aren't even worth discussing since all they turned out to be were minor leaguers, so they definitely weren't overcooked and ripened for the NHL since they never turned into NHLers.

It still doesn't take away that those who suggest that Byfield needs five years to develop are still hanging onto those words from Lombardi years ago that suggested having a prospect over marinate is never a bad thing. That may have been somewhat true in the past, but that philosophy doesn't apply for top prospects.