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Proposal: Who do we move Morgan Rielly for?

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ALine said:
Rielly's biggest value is being an effective 5-5 bug minute guy. Im not married to him on the powerplay, however. A guy like Sandin might thrive there even thiugh he may be less effective 5-5
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Based on?

Again, he has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL on the powerplay for several years now.
 
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The Apologist said:
Odd that he was a big part of a good PP before any of them were Leafs too eh? Just lucky I guess.

And this is not even taking into account how much more important he's been 5 on 5 on this team.

Anyway, moving on.


Oddly enough no. Just Rielly.
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I’m not even gonna look but I’m sure the years we drafted 8th, 4th and 1st we didn’t have a good PP the prior year
 
Ziggdiezan said:
How can Rielly's partner not even be on the list when he played with Rielly for pretty much all 5 on 5 minutes? See alot of other pairings on there but no Brodie is really strange.
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Sample size is way too small and numbers are pro-rated to 60 minutes. He's played he's only played 35 5v5 minutes with about 7 minutes apart from Brodie. Those 7 minutes are pro-rated to 12 minutes, so 5/12 (~42%) of those minutes apart are an imaginary pace, as well as 25/60 of the total minutes.
 
Based on watching leafs games. PP's clicked well in the past with Rielly as a mainstay, but it shouldn't be written in stone. Sandin's a high IQ guy but doesn't have the wheels like Rielly, I see him more a middle pairing guy that could help a PP aswell, vs Rielly who is a bonafide #1 5 vs 5. I guess its more of a minute share thing where if sandin can take over the pp role, you have Rielly first over the boards when we're back to even strength.

If you were looking for a wall of stats to back my claim ala poster 'zeke', well that ain't me, friend:)
 
Don't think they should shop Rielly but should listen on offers; worst case he's a solid own-rental & a leader for a team that's in win-now mode.
Brobust said:
Winnipeg 2022 1st round pick + Mason Appleton
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Something like this I could see. Appleton is a solid add with a good cap hit, & the pick adds to their trade bait. Could be worthwhile if they had a plan to utilize the cap space gained.
 
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Griffin76 said:
But when it's struggling then it's Rielly's fault?
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No. When it’s struggling you look at why it’s struggling. Personally what I’ve seen is because Rielly refuses to shoot the penalty killers just tighten up on Matthews & Marner. Also our puck movement is too slow and predictable and a good portion of that falls on Rielly as well. He always takes a 1/2 second extra to think

Go watch Boston, Colorado or Washington on the PP. Rapid puck movement so the PK can’t get set
 
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123offtheglass said:
Don't think they should shop Rielly but should listen on offers; worst case he's a solid own-rental & a leader for a team that's in win-now mode.

Something like this I could see. Appleton is a solid add with a good cap hit, & the pick adds to their trade bait. Could be worthwhile if they had a plan to utilize the cap space gained.
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Dougie Hamilton
 
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We only trade Rielly if we lose in this first round and we need to semi-blow things up tbh. He's a playoff performer and our #1D on a great contract for next year. I don't care that he's mediocre defensively, he's a good player and we're looking to maximize having good players on the team.

If we could sign Hamilton to a cheap deal then we would ship out Rielly for the fit. But scenarios generally end after that because it makes the team worse.
 
Korg said:
Sample size is way too small and numbers are pro-rated to 60 minutes. He's played he's only played 35 5v5 minutes with about 7 minutes apart from Brodie. Those 7 minutes are pro-rated to 12 minutes, so 5/12 (~42%) of those minutes apart are an imaginary pace, as well as 25/60 of the total minutes.
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Oh I thought those were for the regular season lol ya trying to look a xGF/GA for 2 game sample size is less than useless lol
 
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The only way I really see it happening is if we need to blow up the core and do Nylander/Marner for a D and Rielly for forward.

Stonehands1990 said:
No. When it’s struggling you look at why it’s struggling. Personally what I’ve seen is because Rielly refuses to shoot the penalty killers just tighten up on Matthews & Marner. Also our puck movement is too slow and predictable and a good portion of that falls on Rielly as well. He always takes a 1/2 second extra to think

Go watch Boston, Colorado or Washington on the PP. Rapid puck movement so the PK can’t get set
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Just the shot alone is so important. It doesn't need to be a cannon, just needs to get on net. 3/5 guys on the ice (Matthews Tavares and Nylander) are probably top-10 or 15 garbage men in the league, if you feed them enough rebounds they're going to score regardless of how cold the puck movement is. 5 for 75 or whatever it was is insane when you have those 3 sitting on the doorstep waiting to roof a bad bounce.
 
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The Apologist said:
Based on?

Again, he has been one of the best defensemen in the NHL on the powerplay for several years now.
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From 2018-2019 to now amongst D men who have played at least 200 minutes on the PP Rielly is 61st in Goals/60 and 27th in First Assists/60. Assuming every team uses 1 D man on the PP He’s actually one of the worst 1st unit guys in the league
 
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Stonehands1990 said:
From 2018-2019 to now amongst D men who have played at least 200 minutes on the PP Rielly is 61st in Goals/60 and 27th in First Assists/60. Assuming every team uses 1 D man on the PP He’s actually one of the worst 1st unit guys in the league
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In fairness he spent roughly a year of that off the top PP unit, but I'd agree he hasn't been elite on the PP for 3+ years now
 
My biggest beef has been his complete lack of player awareness as he's puck-watching in his own zone. If you're a forward on the other team, it's key that you easily sneak around Rielly and are left uncovered. I saw him quickly turn his head this season and almost fell out of my chair in excitement.
 
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Gallagbi said:
In fairness he spent roughly a year of that off the top PP unit, but I'd agree he hasn't been elite on the PP for 3+ years now
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Good call I forgot about that. But the point stands he’s not as elite as everyone makes him out to be. I’m fine having an above average offensive minded D man but the cap hit would need to make sense
 
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Korg said:
The real cringey part is the person who made that graph is apparently studying economics as Harvard. :whaaa?:

A quarter million dollars ain't worth what it used to be, I guess.
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What the guy is doing is nothing special. He is effectively a Tableau (or equivalent) expert, which is no different than any other business kid from a half decent university. Other than that, what they post is no better than the quick stuff that people like me post on here to make a point but with prettier visuals.

Safe to say that if anyone wanted to make the NHL as any kind of data analyst/developer, they would put a lot more time and effort into making more sophisticated stuff than what they would post on HFBoards or Twitter.
 
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