Proposal: Who do we move Morgan Rielly for?

[SeaOfBlue]

Analyzing the Maple Leafs' slumping power play and how they can fix it

Our PP was at 31.7% before the slump. Never hit 40%

They were at 40% after the first 11 games (which is 20% of this season). So they were over 40% for the first 3+ weeks of the season, then were over 30% for 5+ weeks after that. They were not over 40% in February (although were close to it after ~35% of the season) but were over 30% the entire time (being until March 11th)... Which was still good enough to be consistently at or near the top spot in the NHL.

You are talking like 31.7% after two months is not ridiculously good. The top team in the NHL finished with a 27.6% rate (EDM) and the next highest had a 25.6% rate. It was good enough for the Leafs to be completely anemic for 2 months and still be able to finish in the middle of the NHL at 20.5%.

 

[nuck]

Also the summer that Rielly hits UFA Campbell hits UFA and Sandin/Liljegren are RFAs

So are Lindholm, Nurse and Ekholm if any don't get re-upped. It will be interesting to see what MR and his peers sign for if they actually get to UFA.

 

[ALine]

Might be Dubas's toughest decision coming up. Great player and Id really like to keep him, it all comes down to cost. He'll be 28, I believe, and if he's looking to cash in big on probably his last big contract, it might get ugly. Id think the ask would be over 6 year minimum. But whats the price? 8 plus aav might not be tenable. New contract for Matthews is needed 2 years after Rielly new one starts (plus saving room for McDavid)Part of me, like Hyman, think Rielly might 'buy in' and make it easy on us, but thats wishful thinking. Dubas has given me little reason to doubt the future course though.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Define never. It was over 40% until game 12.

Toronto Maple Leafs Power-Play Woes Are Very Concerning

I found one. They went 13 for 30 through 10 games. I withdraw my previous comment

 

[The Apologist]

So are Lindholm, Nurse and Ekholm if any don't get re-upped. It will be interesting to see what MR and his peers sign for if they actually get to UFA.

Given how insanely good Sandin apparently already is I'm not looking forward to what his asking price will be.

 

[Stonehands1990]

They were at 40% after the first 11 games (which is 20% of this season). So they were over 40% for the first 3+ weeks of the season, then were over 30% for 5+ weeks after that. They were not over 40% in February (although were close to it after ~35% of the season) but were over 30% the entire time (being until March 11th)... Which was still good enough to be consistently at or near the top spot in the NHL.

You are talking like 31.7% after two months is not ridiculously good. The top team in the NHL finished with a 27.6% rate (EDM) and the next highest had a 25.6% rate. It was good enough for the Leafs to be completely anemic for 2 months and still be able to finish in the middle of the NHL at 20.5%.

Using short term hot streaks to evaluate his play as a PP QB is asinine

 

[bpower]

We are playing Montreal others are playing good competition that is completely meaningless.

Do you see another Leaf on the list?

 

[The Apologist]

Might be Dubas's toughest decision coming up. Great player and Id really like to keep him, it all comes down to cost. He'll be 28, I believe, and if he's looking to cash in big on probably his last big contract, it might get ugly. Id think the ask would be over 6 year minimum. But whats the price? 8 plus aav might not be tenable. New contract for Matthews is needed 2 years after Rielly new one starts (plus saving room for McDavid)Part of me, like Hyman, think Rielly might 'buy in' and make it easy on us, but thats wishful thinking. Dubas has given me little reason to doubt the future course though.

I think Dubas will know well ahead what Mo's intentions are. If he wants him here he will be here. Nobody thought we could keep the big four yet here we are. And we still added Brodie and Muzz. Dubas seems to have a knack for finding pieces as well.

 

[The Apologist]

Using short term hot streaks to evaluate his play as a PP QB is asinine

Sure is, which is why it makes sense to use several seasons. Doing so establishes Mo as a solid PP QB and the only one we have.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Sure is, which is why it makes sense to use several seasons. Doing so establishes Mo as a solid PP QB and the only one we have.

Honest question: do you honestly believe Marner isn’t the QB of our power play? Like do you believe it’s Rielly 100%? Personally I don’t see it, our PP has run through Marner for 5 years

Rielly legitimately does a drop pass and makes bump passes to Marner and Matthews which is why Keefe elected to make a change for Sandin

 

[Stonehands1990]

Might be Dubas's toughest decision coming up. Great player and Id really like to keep him, it all comes down to cost. He'll be 28, I believe, and if he's looking to cash in big on probably his last big contract, it might get ugly. Id think the ask would be over 6 year minimum. But whats the price? 8 plus aav might not be tenable. New contract for Matthews is needed 2 years after Rielly new one starts (plus saving room for McDavid)Part of me, like Hyman, think Rielly might 'buy in' and make it easy on us, but thats wishful thinking. Dubas has given me little reason to doubt the future course though.

Rielly is getting his current salary + the 1.2 that comes off the books for the Kessel retention. We could find another 800k to make it 7.0 AAV but I’m not even sure we should pay him that much more than Brodie & Muzzin

 

[Griffin76]

If Sandin is that great on the PP then what's so bad about having him play 15 minutes and playing top PP minutes? It doesn't mean Rielly is no longer needed.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Source?

40% on February 5th, tied for first.
NHL Stats

February 6 to end of season - 14.2%, good for 28th.

NHL Stats

 

[Stonehands1990]

40% on February 5th, tied for first.
NHL Stats

February 6 to end of season - 14.2%, good for 28th.

NHL Stats

Yeah I posted a source as well. Didn’t realize it got that hot, but realistically it was a small sample size

 

[The Apologist]

Honest question: do you honestly believe Marner isn’t the QB of our power play? Like do you believe it’s Rielly 100%? Personally I don’t see it, our PP has run through Marner for 5 years

Rielly legitimately does a drop pass and makes bump passes to Marner and Matthews which is why Keefe elected to make a change for Sandin

I think our PP has been struggling and Keefe has been looking for an answer. He tried Sandin earlier in the season too and yet went back to Rielly, why would that be if Sandin was such an instant improvement?
Hes also kept Thornton on the PP for god knows how long. Do you agree that Thornton belongs there? Or can we only use coaching choices when we agree with the decision?

I can only use the facts I have. The facts are that Riles has been a top producer on the PP for a long time. Sandin scored a goal in the last game.

Riles has been a solid producer for a long time, far and away our best overall defenseman consistently for years.

Rielly has consistently been a solid playoff performer.

Rielly is drafted and developed by this team and has been here through good and bad.

I get some people don't like him. I get he struggled at the end of the season. I'll argue his faults and strengths but it has to be a real conversation based on what he brings and not some 10 game sample. If you're constantly downplaying and discrediting his strengths and accomplishments while pretending we can replace him without issue, there is no discussion to be had.

Not necessarily saying it's what you're trying to do but some of the comments in this thread do certainly come off as hot takes based on one game.

 

[Anthrax442]

I dont think losing a good player is ever good, but covid brought a cap freeze and Rielly might not fit in. Plus I dont think a 7 or 8 year deal is a good idea for him. Its kinda more palatable since we know that Sandin is that bloody good and he isnt even in his prime yet.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I dont think losing a good player is ever good, but covid brought a cap freeze and Rielly might not fit in. Plus I dont think a 7 or 8 year deal is a good idea for him. Its kinda more palatable since we know that Sandin is that bloody good and he isnt even in his prime yet.

Right but how long will the cap be frozen for? Andersen coming off the books and the cap going up in a year could make room for Rielly and Hymans new deal.

 

[Brobust]

Hmmm, most of the guys are from Boston, Colorado, Toronto and Carolina. I wonder what that means?

 

[The Apologist]

Hmmm, most of the guys are from Boston, Colorado, Toronto and Carolina. I wonder what that means?

Who's the other Toronto name?

 

[Stonehands1990]

I think our PP has been struggling and Keefe has been looking for an answer. He tried Sandin earlier in the season too and yet went back to Rielly, why would that be if Sandin was such an instant improvement?
Hes also kept Thornton on the PP for god knows how long. Do you agree that Thornton belongs there? Or can we only use coaching choices when we agree with the decision?

I can only use the facts I have. The facts are that Riles has been a top producer on the PP for a long time. Sandin scored a goal in the last game.

Riles has been a solid producer for a long time, far and away our best overall defenseman consistently for years.

Rielly has consistently been a solid playoff performer.

Rielly is drafted and developed by this team and has been here through good and bad.

I get some people don't like him. I get he struggled at the end of the season. I'll argue his faults and strengths but it has to be a real conversation based on what he brings and not some 10 game sample. If you're constantly downplaying and discrediting his strengths and accomplishments while pretending we can replace him without issue, there is no discussion to be had.

Not necessarily saying it's what you're trying to do but some of the comments in this thread do certainly come off as hot takes based on one game.

I like Rielly. My point is don’t anoint him the PP QB and give him all the credit for the success we had especially when it’s very clear that he is not the PP QB.
Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Spezza

Are all bigger factors of the success of our PP

 

[Brobust]

Who's the other Toronto name?

My bad. Didn't take a full look and just assumed at least Brodie would be on there.

 

[Stonehands1990]

I think our PP has been struggling and Keefe has been looking for an answer. He tried Sandin earlier in the season too and yet went back to Rielly, why would that be if Sandin was such an instant improvement?
Hes also kept Thornton on the PP for god knows how long. Do you agree that Thornton belongs there? Or can we only use coaching choices when we agree with the decision?

I can only use the facts I have. The facts are that Riles has been a top producer on the PP for a long time. Sandin scored a goal in the last game.

Riles has been a solid producer for a long time, far and away our best overall defenseman consistently for years.

Rielly has consistently been a solid playoff performer.

Rielly is drafted and developed by this team and has been here through good and bad.

I get some people don't like him. I get he struggled at the end of the season. I'll argue his faults and strengths but it has to be a real conversation based on what he brings and not some 10 game sample. If you're constantly downplaying and discrediting his strengths and accomplishments while pretending we can replace him without issue, there is no discussion to be had.

Not necessarily saying it's what you're trying to do but some of the comments in this thread do certainly come off as hot takes based on one game.

Furthermore I’d be content re-signing Rielly for his current salary + the 1.2 that comes off the books from the Kessel retention. However I can’t justify paying him considerably more than Brodie & Muzz

 

[The Apologist]

I like Rielly. My point is don’t anoint him the PP QB and give him credit for the success we had especially when it’s very clear that he is not the PP QB.
Matthews
Marner
Nylander
Tavares
Spezza

Are all bigger factors of the success of our PP

Odd that he was a big part of a good PP before any of them were Leafs too eh? Just lucky I guess.

And this is not even taking into account how much more important he's been 5 on 5 on this team.

Anyway, moving on.

My bad. Didn't take a full look and just assumed at least Brodie would be on there.

Oddly enough no. Just Rielly.

 

[ALine]

Rielly is getting his current salary + the 1.2 that comes off the books for the Kessel retention. We could find another 800k to make it 7.0 AAV but I’m not even sure we should pay him that much more than Brodie & Muzzin

I could get onboard with that. High 6's, around about 7 tops, with some signing bonus heavy pridham magic.

 

[ALine]

Odd that he was a big part of a good PP before any of them were Leafs too eh? Just lucky I guess.

And this is not even taking into account how much more important he's been 5 on 5 on this team.

Anyway, moving on.


Oddly enough no. Just Rielly.

Rielly's biggest value is being an effective 5-5 bug minute guy. Im not married to him on the powerplay, however. A guy like Sandin might thrive there even thiugh he may be less effective 5-5