Which team has the brighter future? OTT/DET/MTL/BUF

Which team has the brighter future?


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Xirik

Registered User
Sep 24, 2014
9,156
13,479
Alberta
Hughes cant stay healthy. Norris when healthy had 1 C numbers. While he has had worse injuries than Hughes I dont know how you can have it one way without the other. I personally think Norris is done But Pinto is a 2 C. I hope Hughes isnt done he is a very exciting player but with his slight build and all the injuries I am worried.

You are always hating on Ottawa. How come?
what?
 

Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,274
10,191
Montreal, Canada
The problem is you are trying to write off Norris missing an entire season as if it's meaningless.

And he's had 3 surgeries on that same shoulder now

I'm not saying it's meaningless at all. I am pointing out the FACT that the difference in the number of games played between the 2 players mostly happened due to that ONE season. In the 3 other seasons, Norris actually played 5 more games.

It also means than at the end of the day, it could stay like that or even out. It could get worse for Norris too, as you say, had to go for a 3rd surgery (just like Tarasenko by the way). It remains to be seen but as of now, the problem is mainly due to that one season.

Really, it was not supposed to be complicated lol but we are on the internet so I guess I'm not surprised about anything anymore.
 

FriendlyGhost92

Registered User
Jun 22, 2023
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You sure? They dont have the prospects with the highest potential. No #1 d man in the system and a below average first line C with no one else in the system. All their highest draft capital spent on wingers and complimentary D men.

Ehh. Montreal has prospects with high potential. I think your argument could be more placed that they don't have prospects with the highest potential in the necessary positions.

Slaf (Not a prospect really, but young enough) and Demidov both being wingers are nice to have, but contenders are typically built down the middle and on defense.

Honestly, Montreal seems a lot like Detroit a few years ago. Loaded with good defensive prospects and good winger prospects, but one fringe top line center (Suzuki/Larkin) and pretty gross down the middle outside that. Detroit's built on that with Kasper/Danielson, but remains to be seen if either of those can be a top 6 center or just middle 6.
 
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Xspyrit

DJ Dorion
Jun 29, 2008
31,274
10,191
Montreal, Canada
I don't totally disagree with this but a few points I'd argue...

1. While the Sens 2020 draft is looking pretty good, it's also not hard to do considering what they went into that draft with. I'd argue that having a draft like that is more common than having two top 5 picks in a draft. (Dallas 2017 immediately comes to mind, and I have no doubt there's other examples)

The Sens 2020 draft will be considered one of the best in NHL history (I said as such on HF just after the draft), it's not common in any way, shape or form

It's one of the very few great (Karlsson and Pageau trades) or even good things Pierre Dorion did, can't take that away from him lol

2. The Sens prospect pool is generally ragged on because it's honestly crap now. To a degree that's not their fault because they've graduated a ton of big names the last couple seasons. The part that is their fault is, IMO, they started selling high picks too early, before they had established themselves as a competitor. And it doesn't help that those picks were sold for guys that had no interest playing in Ottawa.

2019 - I can't blame them too much for, because Thompson was mid-1st and there wasn't a whole lot of eye-popping talent picked close to him.
2021 - Reaching for Boucher with the talent that went after him was an absolute whiff.
2022 - Gross considering Debrincat bailed and the talent that went from 7-14. (Korchinski/Kasper/Savoie/Mintyukov/Geekie/Mateychuk/Nazar/McGroarty) They all look like decent NHL players at worst.
2023 - Harder to evaluate, but you've got some home run potential swings that were available at 12 with Benson and ASP, and a lot of other solid potential there.

And FWIW, even without the hindsight of Debrincat and Chychrun immediately bailing, I still think those were bad moves. I think part of extending your contending window is continuing to draft moderate to high end talent so you have good players on ELCs and bridges to counter the massive cap hits your core players are eating.

Can't argue with all of this because I crapped on Dorion a LOT MORE than you just did and for years but while the current pool is nothing like it used to be and not comparable to rebuilding teams, it's going to be underrated due to the way it was handled the last 3 years. The way Dorion squandered draft picks is beyond frustrating.

We are currently doing the ranking on the Sens board and so far :

1- Carter Yakemchuk
2- Tyler Kleven
3- Zack Ostapchuk
4- Stephen Halliday
5- Mads Søgaard
6- Leevi Merilainen

IMO Jorian Donovan and Matthew Andonovski should have been ranked above Merilainen and while the pool is nothing to write home about, it will produce many NHL players in the next 4-5 years. Then you have guys like Angus Crookshank and Maxence Guénette who will play in the NHL (but no idea how long) and young reclamation projects like Xavier Bourgault and Jan Jeník who were recently highly rated. Tyler Boucher could be a good bottom-6 forward if he is ever able to stay healthy. Oskar Pettersson also have a high floor (but not much upside). Finally, you have some intriguing freshly drafted prospects like Gabriel Eliasson, Javon Moore and Blake Montgomery

I think this pool lacks 2 top prospects (1st rounders from either 2021, 2022 or 2023) and at least another good prospect (one of the 2nd rounders that we stupidly lost?) but outside of that, it's pretty good. It's just that it can't be compared to good pools because of that gigantic hole in the top-5

Add Marco Kasper and Brayden Yager for example and it becomes a good pool

1- Carter Yakemchuk
2- Brayden Yager
3- Marco Kasper
4- Tyler Kleven
5- Stephen Halliday
6- Zack Ostapchuk
7- Mads Søgaard
8- Jorian Donovan
9- Matthew Andonovski
10- Xavier Bourgault
11- Angus Crookshank
12- Maxence Guénette
13- Leevi Merilainen
14- Oskar Pettersson
15- Jan Jeník
 

FriendlyGhost92

Registered User
Jun 22, 2023
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You're refering to Dallas draft that might be the 2nd best of all-time... that's why

But make a list... and let's see

I'd assume you're ranking Detroit 1989 #1...

Top of my head in just 3 minutes of looking around, you'll have to let Stutzle and Sanderson's careers play out before you can put that draft over both Anaheim and Nashville's 2003 drafts.

That's only 3 minutes of searching, and among the Detroit '89, Dallas '17, and Anaheim/Nashville '03 drafts, there's only one Top 5 pick. Stutzle and Sanderson both were Top 5.

Ottawa's 2020 draft is more comparable to Vancouver '99 than any of those.
 
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Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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Norris has once again had 3 surgeries on the same shoulder.
Once again, they’re both injury prone players. Jack’s injuries woes.

4/9/24Shoulder surgery
1/5/24Upper Body
11/3/23Shoulder
2/7/23Upper Body
4/5/22Knee
10/19/21Shoulder dislocated
1/2/20Upper Body
11/30/19Lower-Body
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
25,010
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I'd assume you're ranking Detroit 1989 #1...

Top of my head in just 3 minutes of looking around, you'll have to let Stutzle and Sanderson's careers play out before you can put that draft over both Anaheim and Nashville's 2003 drafts.

That's only 3 minutes of searching, and among the Detroit '89, Dallas '17, and Anaheim/Nashville '03 drafts, there's only one Top 5 pick. Stutzle and Sanderson both were Top 5.

Ottawa's 2020 draft is more comparable to Vancouver '99 than any of those.
The Sens 2020 draft isn't even the best draft in the last 10 years...
I see one team in the last decade you listed, Maybe your google search is broken.
 

FriendlyGhost92

Registered User
Jun 22, 2023
3,715
4,492
I see one team in the last decade you listed, Maybe your google search is broken.

Yeah, it's almost like he said "One of the best in history", not the last decade.

Nevermind that I qualified in the original post that part of the reason it's not all that remarkable is that both the elite players they got were Top 5 picks. Good on them for getting two Top 5 picks, but how many times has that happened in the history of the draft?
 

bert

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Nov 11, 2002
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Ehh. Montreal has prospects with high potential. I think your argument could be more placed that they don't have prospects with the highest potential in the necessary positions.

Slaf (Not a prospect really, but young enough) and Demidov both being wingers are nice to have, but contenders are typically built down the middle and on defense.

Honestly, Montreal seems a lot like Detroit a few years ago. Loaded with good defensive prospects and good winger prospects, but one fringe top line center (Suzuki/Larkin) and pretty gross down the middle outside that. Detroit's built on that with Kasper/Danielson, but remains to be seen if either of those can be a top 6 center or just middle 6.
Essentially yes thats what I am saying. I mean there is an outside chance that Reinbacher becomes a #1 d man but I see him at his absolute best as a complimentary #2. I think Hutson will be a good offensive player but not a #1 d man as his size and explosive skating are going to limit his ability to defend. Before anyone mentions Quinn Hughes he is a much better skater and is a much thicker person in build. I like Guhle too but he is a #2 at best if he reaches that.

If Demidov and Slafkovsky absolutely hit atleast one will have to carry a line it could all work out.

But those are alot of if's I don't like the way they are built. I do think Suzuki is a solid solid player though with elite wingers it could create a legit first line.

Buffalo is built the best and while Ottawa doesnt have a ton of depth they have core pieces in the right places. They have depth down the middle with an elite talent at 1C and what looks like a really good two way #2 who has size, who shots the other way in Pinto. They have a #1 d man and they have a unicorn type offensive physical player in Tkachuk. They just gotta fill the holes around them assuming they can take another step.

If I had to pick one team its pretty easily Buffalo they have the elite pieces in important positions and as good prospect depth if not better than Montreal.
 
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Chainshot

Give 'em Enough Rope
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Feb 28, 2002
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Tarnation
Feels like this is a selection among least worst options.

Ottawa has had issues with injury and some blunders both making selections and trading for guys who didn't work out. Now it's questions on if Ullmark will stay and can he provide the goaltending they need behind the Sens instead of the Bruins. Their 1C and 1D though are probably the best as a duo of these four teams. Ulllmark behind the Bruins disciplined team was excellent, will they support him enough to do what he does and will he stay?

Detroit doesn't have the high end center but they have probably the 2nd best out of the group in Larkin but then it's what comes next and do the workmanlike guys who Yzerman has been collecting break through (I think Danielson does and that will give them a marked advantage as a 1C/2C combo with him and Larkin that I don't have as firm a feeling about with the rest due to health issues of guys like Norris and Dach or consistency issues of a guy like Thompson or Cozens). Sieder is fascinating - buried defensively but I've seen this show before with Ristolainen and keep wondering why they are doing this to the kid and worry that they could stunt him. I'd say they have one of the best prospect goalies in the bunch with how Decosta has righted his development path but in the here-and-now, they haven't had a lot of consistency.

Montreal has probably the third best center IMO of the four in Suzuki yet is he enough to be a high-end 1C to outperform/control the likes of Point or Matthews or Barkov in the division or even be on par with Larkin? It's a question to answer and I think Larkin is a slice above. And while there is a fine collection of prospects, we know that some prospects become suspects along the way since some players never reach their potential. Slaf and Caufield are solid, so too is Guhle, but is it enough to differentiate them from the rest? Maybe, maybe not. And we know goaltending is volatile so will Primeau build off last season? It's a bigger question for me than Ullmark in Ottawa.

Buffalo has a lot of younger guys in positions that either need to rebound from down years (Cozens, Byram) or injury (Quinn) and find a way to integrate prospects (again some will become suspects along the way). I don't know if their team building is sufficient and their consistent attachment to their internal guys with a public inability to get it done when it comes to trades to improve the core and just constant issues with inexperienced managers... there are too many questions that have to be "yes" for me to rank them first.

Again... it's the least worst options. :laugh:
 
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Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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Nevermind that I qualified in the original post that part of the reason it's not all that remarkable is that both the elite players they got were Top 5 picks. Good on them for getting two Top 5 picks, but how many times has that happened in the history of the draft?
That’s what happens when you trade a 2 time Norris’s winner and twice runner up I guess, while rebuilding.
It’s happened 5x since the late 80’s.
 
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Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
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Yeah, I'm betting both Ottawa and SJS expected that was going to be a Top 3 pick. :laugh:
Yep was nice, getting a top 3 pick, albeit from trading Karlsson.
Sure beats being bumped down 3 spots all the time during the rebuild, like Sens and wings had.
 

Angler

Registered User
Jan 16, 2006
329
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I like threads like this, it really outs the posters who can't think objectively because they absolutely hate/despise a specific team.
 
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dgibb10

Registered User
Feb 29, 2024
2,465
2,190
Once again, they’re both injury prone players. Jack’s injuries woes.

4/9/24Shoulder surgery
1/5/24Upper Body
11/3/23Shoulder
2/7/23Upper Body
4/5/22Knee
10/19/21Shoulder dislocated
1/2/20Upper Body
11/30/19Lower-Body

3 shoulder surgeries, same shoulder.

Surely Jack, being as injury prone as he is, doesn't have more points in the last 3 years than every single member of the senators?
 

Just Linda

Registered User
Feb 24, 2018
6,768
6,727
Norris vs Hughes games played

2020-21 : 56 vs 56 (full season for both)
2021-22 : 66 vs 49
2022-23 : 8 vs 78
2023-24 : 50 vs 62

So outside of 2022-23 where he got injured after 4 games then tried to come back but finally got shut down, Norris actually played 5 more games than Hughes

Both players have been injury prone, only difference is that Norris nearly missed a full season

Important to note that we're comparing an elite #1C and a #2C



I have been extremely critical since 2021 (to the point of frustrating some other Sens fans) but come on...


Stützle (22), Tkachuk (24), Batherson (26), Norris (25), Pinto (23), Greig (21), Halliday (22), Ostapchuk (21)

Sanderson (22), Chabot (27), Zub (28), Kleven (22), Yakemchuk (18), Donovan (20), Andonovski (19)

Ullmark (30), Sogaard (23), Merilainen (21)

What is extremely annoying is to have witnessed Pierre Dorion squander a lot of the possible wealth. They could easily have the best future in the NHL but Dorion happened (Tyler Boucher 10th OA, DeBrincat, Chychrun, Duchene, Zibanejad, Dadonov fiascos, plus so many other bad/stupid moves)

They still have a possible great future, very reliant on how good Stutzle and Sanderson become but I'm personally not re-assured yet that they have the right management to offset 7 years of utter-incompetence
You listed a bunch of players and a few prospects, I don't see their route to contention from those players.

Ottawa had a negative goal differential last year of -25.

A solid playoff team has a goal differential of +50. Teams can make it with less but rarely do well if they have less.

Ottawa has to get +75 goal differential to make the playoffs. That's a huge barrier.

They'll be going from Korpisalo (-20 GSAA) to Ullmark (+13) GSAA last year, that'll cut that 75 down to around 40. They'll have to also offset the loss Claude Giroux's production as he declines, that'll pretty much offset Grieg's developmental contribution.

I feel Batherson, Stutzle, and Tkachuk make up a really decent top line (or options for a top line). Grieg and Pinto will be nice secondary pieces for sure. Perron and Giroux will play their part too. It's just... the guns fall short of Tampa, Florida, Toronto. You had to list Halliday on that list, he might not even develop into a full-time NHLer.

Getting Ullmark to exceed his GSAA will rely on the D keeping the puck out of their zone. Klevin will help, there's others who might help in 3-4 years when they develop, right now I'm not convinced those guys are the guys to do it,

I just don't see the route to overcoming such a gap.
 

Golden_Jet

Registered User
Sep 21, 2005
25,010
12,685
You listed a bunch of players and a few prospects, I don't see their route to contention from those players.

Ottawa had a negative goal differential last year of -25.

A solid playoff team has a goal differential of +50. Teams can make it with less but rarely do well if they have less.

Ottawa has to get +75 goal differential to make the playoffs. That's a huge barrier.

They'll be going from Korpisalo (-20 GSAA) to Ullmark (+13) GSAA last year, that'll cut that 75 down to around 40. They'll have to also offset the loss Claude Giroux's production as he declines, that'll pretty much offset Grieg's developmental contribution.

I feel Batherson, Stutzle, and Tkachuk make up a really decent top line (or options for a top line). Grieg and Pinto will be nice secondary pieces for sure. Perron and Giroux will play their part too. It's just... the guns fall short of Tampa, Florida, Toronto. You had to list Halliday on that list, he might not even develop into a full-time NHLer.

Getting Ullmark to exceed his GSAA will rely on the D keeping the puck out of their zone. Klevin will help, there's others who might help in 3-4 years when they develop, right now I'm not convinced those guys are the guys to do it,

I just don't see the route to overcoming such a gap.
lol that’s gold coming from the team with -53 goal differential.
 

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