Which team has the brighter future? OTT/DET/MTL/BUF

[Baksfamous112]

Ehh. Montreal has prospects with high potential. I think your argument could be more placed that they don't have prospects with the highest potential in the necessary positions.

Slaf (Not a prospect really, but young enough) and Demidov both being wingers are nice to have, but contenders are typically built down the middle and on defense.

Honestly, Montreal seems a lot like Detroit a few years ago. Loaded with good defensive prospects and good winger prospects, but one fringe top line center (Suzuki/Larkin) and pretty gross down the middle outside that. Detroit's built on that with Kasper/Danielson, but remains to be seen if either of those can be a top 6 center or just middle 6.

Suzuki just posted a 77 points season with basically no help offensively outside of half a season with Slaf and Caufield. As more offensive talent join the Habs, he should be able to elevate his offensive production even more.

Dach paced at 54 points at 21 years old. It sucks that he missed a whole season but he's still only 23 and and his potential is sky-high. Newhook was also pacing at 53 points this year as a 23 years old. Beck is turning pro and should be a safe bet as a 30-35 points 2-way C. They also just drafted Hage who has top 6 potential long term. I'm not sure why anyone would say Habs C line is "gross' outside of Suzuki

Essentially yes thats what I am saying. I mean there is an outside chance that Reinbacher becomes a #1 d man but I see him at his absolute best as a complimentary #2. I think Hutson will be a good offensive player but not a #1 d man as his size and explosive skating are going to limit his ability to defend. Before anyone mentions Quinn Hughes he is a much better skater and is a much thicker person in build. I like Guhle too but he is a #2 at best if he reaches that.

If Demidov and Slafkovsky absolutely hit atleast one will have to carry a line it could all work out.

But those are alot of if's I don't like the way they are built. I do think Suzuki is a solid solid player though with elite wingers it could create a legit first line.

Buffalo is built the best and while Ottawa doesnt have a ton of depth they have core pieces in the right places. They have depth down the middle with an elite talent at 1C and what looks like a really good two way #2 who has size, who shots the other way in Pinto. They have a #1 d man and they have a unicorn type offensive physical player in Tkachuk. They just gotta fill the holes around them assuming they can take another step.

If I had to pick one team its pretty easily Buffalo they have the elite pieces in important positions and as good prospect depth if not better than Montreal.

I'm fine with Reinbacher and Hutson becoming #2 - #3. I would be happy with that. At this point Guhle is on pace to be a #2-#3 as well and Mailloux is pacing to be at least a top 4. You don't necessarily need a high end #1 if you have 3-4 legit #2 or #3.

Ottawa doesn't have a #1 D-man.. just yet.

 

[Czechboy]

Hfrealestate is fun to read.

Detroit has Stevie Y and the plan is going great. Multiple future Norris and Vezina winners drafted.

 

[Stewie Griffin]

Hfrealestate is fun to read.

Detroit has Stevie Y and the plan is going great. Multiple future Norris and Vezina winners drafted.

Lol are you serious?

 

[norrisnick]

Lol are you serious?

Wing fans were mean to Hronek and he's been lashing out ever since. EDIT - you can add Zadina and Vrana to the list of grievances.

 

[jbeck5]

Original 6, storied franchise with a brand new arena vs whatever the sens have going for them? A growing population I guess lol? One of the oldest, most successful sports cities in North America, vs a city that has a CFL team now I guess?

Detroits in a unique position because after the white flight from the richest city in America, the suburbs became very wealthy while the inner city is obviously not. The athletesin Detroit dont live on 8 mile.

Speaking of organisations ranking these things, theyre ranking Detroit, not Birmingham or Royal Oak so they mean literally nothing to this discussion. Speaking of rankings, heres the athletic ranking Ottawa only 2nd to Winnipeg for worst place to play on the road in the NHL, which is way more relevant to the discussion

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5239046/2024/01/31/nhl-player-poll-2024/


Yeah housing prices also have nothing to do with Canada being in arguably the largest housing bubble of all time and the teams are in completely different countries.



Lol,when youre talking about literally one of the least desirable cities in the NHL it absolutely matters. Ottawa happens to be one of those teams

You realize they rank low "to visit" because you go from the airport to Kanata and never go to Ottawa.


You have so many players and ex players who have played in Ottawa who say that it's night and day for living in Ottawa vs visiting in Ottawa as a road team.

So no, you're listing of visiting as a road team is completely irrelevant to living in said cities.

Usually the cities I would want to visit the most, I would never want to live there and raise a family there. They are polar opposites.

Madrid is amazing to visit. To live? No way. Google map it and zoom in. Not a park or forest in sight.

Neighbourhoods there look more like a beige front walkway zoomed out on satellite image than they do an actual city. No trees in sight.


So no, where to visit is irrelevant when it comes to where to live. You have to actually look at the data from those cities.

 

[SuperScript29]

I remember Kubalik giving an interview with the Czech media after being traded to Ottawa and he reflected on the fact that he never went downtown Detroit, and very few of the players ever did, and that it was strange.

I don't understand, what's so weird about that? A downtown scene doesn't really define the city's desirability, at least not for everyone. Many people I know myself included rarely ever visit a downtown unless they have to.

I would bet that most hockey players care more about a city that has high end and safe neighborhoods with great schools to raise their families rather than the downtown scene. A side from that, it's mostly about the organization they're joining.

Madrid is amazing to visit. To live? No way. Google map it and zoom in. Not a park or forest in sight.

Yet they have one of the most, if not the most successful soccer club of all-time.

 

[NyQuil]

I would bet that most hockey players care more about a city that has high end and safe neighborhoods with great schools to raise their families rather than the downtown scene. A side from that, it's mostly about the organization they're joining.

This is why a lot of players who come to Ottawa retire in the area.

Yet they have one of the most, if not the most successful soccer club of all-time.

Yes, and Cristiano Ronaldo is playing in Saudi Arabia for the schools and the suburb lifestyle.

People make such a big deal of these comparative city surveys when money trumps it all anyway in 95% of the situations.

 

[SuperScript29]

This is why a lot of players who come to Ottawa retire in the area.

Cool, we're not talking about where people want to retire. I'm a lot of that is also tied to family ties, so I don't care where players want to retire. I do however care about them wanting to play in your city, since that does effect their decision.

Yes, and Cristiano Ronaldo is playing in Saudi Arabia for the schools and the suburb lifestyle.

People make such a big deal of these comparative city surveys when money trumps it all anyway in 95% of the situations.

You make it sound like living in Saudi Arabia is bad thing lol. For a person like Ronaldo, not only he's getting paid a shit amount of money, but he's probably being treated and living like a prince. If you don't know how rich Saudis live, I think you should look into it, it will give you a completely new perspective on things. I'll bet you Ronaldo won't accept the same kind of money to play in the Congo.

 

[NyQuil]

I do however care about them wanting to play in your city, since that does effect their decision.

You'd think you would care about wanting to stay in your city.

You make it sound like living in Saudi Arabia is bad thing lol. For a person like Ronaldo, not only he's getting paid a shit amount of money, but he's probably being treated and living like a prince. If you don't know how rich Saudis live, I think you should look into it, it will give you a completely new perspective on things. I'll bet you Ronaldo won't accept the same kind of money to play in the Congo.

As long as his wife doesn't like driving herself, it's a fine place.

If they offered twice as much as Saudi Arabia, I think you'd be surprised.

I've been to the DRC and just like Detroit, there are rich places to live.

 

[Imgoingtowork]

Buffalo are weirdly.

 

[SuperScript29]

You'd think you would care about wanting to stay in your city.

As long as his wife doesn't like driving herself, it's a fine place.

I don't care about staying in one city, and I think his wife can make the exception given the paycheck and that it's a temporary thing.

 

[NyQuil]

I don't care about staying in one city, and I think his wife can make the exception given the paycheck and that it's a temporary thing.

So it is the money, thank you.

 

[SuperScript29]

So it is the money, thank you.

That's a big factor yes, but the city still needs to have a reasonable environment to live in, hence why I mentioned he wouldn't take the same kind of money to play in Congo. Saudi Arabia is a rich country that is no stranger to foreigners working there.

Granted, this whole argument goes back because someone brought up that Detroit was not a desirable city, not sure why it was even brought up, but it sure as hell desirable enough to have a successful hockey franchise where many players would want to play for.

 

[bert]

I'm fine with Reinbacher and Hutson becoming #2 - #3. I would be happy with that. At this point Guhle is on pace to be a #2-#3 as well and Mailloux is pacing to be at least a top 4. You don't necessarily need a high end #1 if you have 3-4 legit #2 or #3.

Ottawa doesn't have a #1 D-man.. just yet.

Don't see many teams do alot of damage without a real number 1 d man or an elite 1C or game stealing goalie. While Montreal has solid pieces they lack elite players in the most important positions which is why I don't think they're the team with the brightest future at this point. Buffalo has that.

Yes they do. Only fanbase that seems to be in denial about it is Montreal of course. Eye test matches all the analytics match. As an elite two way d man hes already producing enough offense. Just need to not have a bias.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

It's funny how long this discussion has been, all teams have been bad since like 2018 with the exception of a couple hot months by the Habs in the covid years when they were gifted playoff opportunities (great playoff run tho).

TBL, FLA, BOS and TOR have been playoff staples while these 4 teams continue to not figure it out.

Gonna use their Top 7 players (4F 3D and 1G) from those periods to compare to what these 4 teams will have over the next 5 or so years.


F1: Kucherov
F2: Point
F3: Stamkos
F4: Cirelli/Killorn/Palat

D1: Hedman
D2: McDonagh
D3: Sergachev

G: Vasilevskiy


F1: Barkov
F2: Tkachuk/Huberdeau
F3: Reinhart
F4: Verhaeghe

D1: Ekblad
D2: Weegar/Montour
D3: Forsling

G: Bobrovsky


F1: Bergeron
F2: Pastrnak
F3: Marchand
F4: Krejci

D1: McAvoy
D2: Chara
D3: Lindholm/Krug

G: Rask/Ullmark/Sway



F1: Matthews
F2: Marner
F3: Tavares
F4: Nylander

D1: Reilly
D2: Muzzin/Barrie
D3: Holl/Liljegren?

G: Andersen/Samsonov

Now for the Atlantic failures....


F1: Stützle
F2: Tkachuk
F3: Batherson
F4: Norris/Pinto/Greig

D1: Sanderson
D2: Chabot
D3: Zub/Yakemchuk

G: Ullmark


F1: Thompson
F2: Cozens
F3: Benson
F4: Quinn/Pererka

D1: Dahlin
D2: Power
D3: Byram/Samuelsson

G: Levi


F1: Larkin
F2: Raymond
F3: DeBrincat
F4: Danielson/Kasper

D1: Seider
D2: Edvinsson
D3: Pellikka?

G: Cossa


F1: Demidov
F2: Slavkovsky
F3: Caufield
F4: Suzuki

D1: Hutson
D2: Guhle
D3: Lindholm/Reinbacher

G: Primeau

Apologies if I missed some blatant ones. Capfriendly made this stuff a lot easier. Obviously these will loom very different even a year from now due to trades, signings, drafts and even value changes.

So based off of those groups, I would say that Buffalo and Ottawa have the biggest star power. Ottawa is by far the least deep, but I'd say Stützle/Tkachuk likely ends up as the best forward duo out of the group, if they're not already.

Best defence undoubtedly goes to Buffalo for now, but all 4 teams have multiple D men 21 and younger so that will change a lot.

I can't believe I'm saying these words but Ottawa undoubtedly has the best goalie right now. If Ullmark is only here one year, Ottawa has by far the worst goalies and I'd even go as far as saying overall group because of the weakness.

The biggest factor how successful these teams will be is coaching. I guess I'd give the edge to Lalonde right now but all of the coaching staffs leave a little to be desired, interested to see which one is best.

All this to say.... We all still suck but Go Sens Go

Nice analysis, agreed on most points.

OP asks 2 slightly different questions: who are you most confident in, and who has the brightest future.

I’m most confident in the Sens because they have the best combo of NHL-proven young talent IMO. Buffalo is right there with them in that regard.

At the same time, I’d say the Habs have the brightest future because they have a deeper pool of promising players, albeit mostly unproven.

In short: Sens = highest floor, Habs = highest ceiling

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Wing fans were mean to Hronek and he's been lashing out ever since. EDIT - you can add Zadina and Vrana to the list of grievances.

He'll completely deny that he doesn't go into threads that either have nothing to do with Detroit or nothing to do with Czech's and complain about how Detroit hates Czechs, though.

Never mind that Hronek was the only one they had with any value. Kubalik was a dud, Zadina was a bust, and Vrana was... Well if you know what he was, you know. I know how HF feels about unconfirmed obviousness.

 

[dgibb10]

Suzuki just posted a 77 points season with basically no help offensively outside of half a season with Slaf and Caufield. As more offensive talent join the Habs, he should be able to elevate his offensive production even more.

Dach paced at 54 points at 21 years old. It sucks that he missed a whole season but he's still only 23 and and his potential is sky-high. Newhook was also pacing at 53 points this year as a 23 years old. Beck is turning pro and should be a safe bet as a 30-35 points 2-way C. They also just drafted Hage who has top 6 potential long term. I'm not sure why anyone would say Habs C line is "gross' outside of Suzuki


I'm fine with Reinbacher and Hutson becoming #2 - #3. I would be happy with that. At this point Guhle is on pace to be a #2-#3 as well and Mailloux is pacing to be at least a top 4. You don't necessarily need a high end #1 if you have 3-4 legit #2 or #3.

Ottawa doesn't have a #1 D-man.. just yet.

Jake Sanderson is probably the most valuable asset that any of the 4 teams listed here have.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Jake Sanderson is probably the most valuable asset that any of the 4 teams listed here have.

lolwut?

 

[dgibb10]

lolwut?

Jake Sanderson is probably the most valuable asset that any of the 4 teams listed here have.

Seider's (assuming he gets 10+ mill) and Dahlin at 11 mill have contracts that make them less valuable.

And I'd take Sanderson over Slafkovsky pretty easily tbh

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Jake Sanderson is probably the most valuable asset that any of the 4 teams listed here have.

Seider's (assuming he gets 10+ mill) and Dahlin at 11 mill have contracts that make them less valuable.

And I'd take Sanderson over Slafkovsky pretty easily tbh

Yeah... I'd still take Dahlin over Sanderson even with the contracts. Not even really an indictment of Sanderson.

Seider remains to be seen on his contract.

 

[Baksfamous112]

Jake Sanderson is probably the most valuable asset that any of the 4 teams listed here have.

Dahlin, Tkachuk, Suzuki, Stutzle and Seider are comfortably ahead of Sanderson already. I would argue Power, Slakovski, Reinbacher and Demidov all have a chance to be as valuable as Sanderson when they are 22 with Power and Slafkovski having the highest chance if they keep growing into the role they were drafted for

 

[GOALOFSSON]

Jake Sanderson is probably the most valuable asset that any of the 4 teams listed here have.

Seider's (assuming he gets 10+ mill) and Dahlin at 11 mill have contracts that make them less valuable.

And I'd take Sanderson over Slafkovsky pretty easily tbh

Well you're wrong about Dahlin at least

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Its definitely Buffalo but they always find ways to fail.

If that's true and it is, then is it really Buffalo?

It SHOULD be Buffalo given the amount of top 10 picks they have had since 2011, but you said yourself they always find a way to fail.

It's probably Ottawa, yes they fail a lot too, but a lot of, if not all of it came under Melnyk.

He's gone now, they have a new owner who looks to be making serious moves to bring his team some credibility back in Ullmark, Perron and Jensen.

I don't think they get in this year because I think the top 4 Atlantic spots are spoken for.

But I do think they are better, I think they are on the right track under their new ownership.

 

[Xspyrit]

I'd assume you're ranking Detroit 1989 #1...

Top of my head in just 3 minutes of looking around, you'll have to let Stutzle and Sanderson's careers play out before you can put that draft over both Anaheim and Nashville's 2003 drafts.

That's only 3 minutes of searching, and among the Detroit '89, Dallas '17, and Anaheim/Nashville '03 drafts, there's only one Top 5 pick. Stutzle and Sanderson both were Top 5.

Ottawa's 2020 draft is more comparable to Vancouver '99 than any of those.

I haven't checked in a while but from memory had Detroit 1989 #1 and then many others like Boston 2006, Montreal 2007, Dallas 2017, Colorado 2009, etc etc

Anaheim and Nashville 2003 and Vancouver 1999 were also among the best. When I said "one of the best" it didn't mean "top-5 of all time"... but even if you have the 15th best it is pretty significant over a long period of time and with that many teams.

Yeah, it's almost like he said "One of the best in history", not the last decade.

Nevermind that I qualified in the original post that part of the reason it's not all that remarkable is that both the elite players they got were Top 5 picks. Good on them for getting two Top 5 picks, but how many times has that happened in the history of the draft?

Note that the Sens draft is not just Stutzle and Sanderson who I think will be among the elite. I think Greig and Kleven will be very good NHL players. Hard to say about Jarventie and Merilainen but they have potential as well. It's true about having 2 top-5 picks but you could still miss out on at least one of them... Agreed that the expectation was high, at least Dorion didn't screw up on that draft. He screwed up basically everything else. Greig and Kleven were drafted due to the picks obtained in the Pageau trade. Stutzle and Merilainen due to the Karlsson trade (also Norris)

 

[Xspyrit]

I'd assume you're ranking Detroit 1989 #1...

Top of my head in just 3 minutes of looking around, you'll have to let Stutzle and Sanderson's careers play out before you can put that draft over both Anaheim and Nashville's 2003 drafts.

That's only 3 minutes of searching, and among the Detroit '89, Dallas '17, and Anaheim/Nashville '03 drafts, there's only one Top 5 pick. Stutzle and Sanderson both were Top 5.

Ottawa's 2020 draft is more comparable to Vancouver '99 than any of those.

Damn, I wrote a more elaborated post last week but lost it all so going for the really short version on top off my head (oops just realized that I had re-wrote a part already lol)

Yeah had Detroit 1st but also had Montreal, Dallas, Colorado, Nashville, Calgary, etc several ones. One of the best in history doesn't mean Top-5, it's a lot of time and a lot of teams, just being top-20 is among the best in history

In comparison to Vancouver's 1999 where they only had the Sedins, Ottawa has a lot more in 2020 than just Stutzle and Sanderson. Greig and Kleven will be quality NHL players but also Jarventie and Merilainen have a chance to be relevant

You listed a bunch of players and a few prospects, I don't see their route to contention from those players.

Ottawa had a negative goal differential last year of -25.

A solid playoff team has a goal differential of +50. Teams can make it with less but rarely do well if they have less.

Ottawa has to get +75 goal differential to make the playoffs. That's a huge barrier.

They'll be going from Korpisalo (-20 GSAA) to Ullmark (+13) GSAA last year, that'll cut that 75 down to around 40. They'll have to also offset the loss Claude Giroux's production as he declines, that'll pretty much offset Grieg's developmental contribution.

I feel Batherson, Stutzle, and Tkachuk make up a really decent top line (or options for a top line). Grieg and Pinto will be nice secondary pieces for sure. Perron and Giroux will play their part too. It's just... the guns fall short of Tampa, Florida, Toronto. You had to list Halliday on that list, he might not even develop into a full-time NHLer.

Getting Ullmark to exceed his GSAA will rely on the D keeping the puck out of their zone. Klevin will help, there's others who might help in 3-4 years when they develop, right now I'm not convinced those guys are the guys to do it,

I just don't see the route to overcoming such a gap.

I don't disagree with all this and believe me, I am forever pissed at Dorion and how he sabotaged Ottawa's rebuild. The team could have several more quality pieces if he didn't screw up on many occasions.

That said, he was in an extremely envious position for anyone having to go for a rebuild. He had assets like Karlsson, Stone, Duchene, Pageau, etc and even prospects like Chabot, Batherson, Paul, etc. The thing that was different from other rebuilds is the age of these players, they were basically all in their prime, Brassard was the "old dude" at 30 years old.

It was very hard to NOT stack an impressive wealth of young talent, even though he did his best to almost screw it all up.

Maybe I'm wrong on Halliday but I listed him as a future (secondary) core piece, there's something about him that reminds me when I was high on a guy like Pageau for example.

Ottawa doesn't have a #1 D-man.. just yet.

Thomas Chabot?