Where will Leon Draisaitl rank all-time by the end of his career?

[TheGoldenJet]

@jigglysquishy ranked Malkin 11th on his list of greatest post-expansion centres (see post #402). The Athletic ranked Malkin 10th among centres (link). If you're citing the Athletic's list as accurate

Please show me where I said that this list is “accurate”.

I maintain that the NHL99 list was correct in rating Malkin above Trottier, who was #31 on the HFBoards users list which is now seven years old. It did have some of its own issues (such as overrating the popular Teemu Selanne), but was correct on the point of rating Malkin above Trottier.

The issue with the outdated and highly inaccurate HFBoards users list is that it is heavily biased, due to primarily North Americans doing the voting. Some of them have great opinions and knowledge, others, not so much. But that situation is going to objectively create real bias. Especially against a Russian player in Malkin, who is already being underrated to meme-like levels.

Malkin as a Russian is going to be lower down on a list made by North American HFBoards users than he should be. That is how a North American echo chamber generally works.

The solution to this would be to create a more representative voting panel for the next HFBoards project (the one that plans to include McDavid). Limit it to a smaller percentage of North Americans, and then include more Russian, Slovak, Swedish, etc voters. This is how you eliminate bias from your lists.

Second, a player like Malkin, who was also being ranked in the HF users list in the middle of his career before scoring 1000 points, is also going to have a second layer of bias leveled against him in addition to the Russian factor: that of not yet having the nostalgia factor of retired players (many of whom were inferior players to him). We are seeing this phenomenon with Connor McDavid now, who is still being listed behind vastly inferior players on some people’s lists.

 

[GoldenKnight]

Malkin is mentioned as a comparable given his proximity to another GOAT but this fails to acknowledge that Crosby and Malkin spent the vast majority of their time on separate lines; a major factor in the Pens winning three Cups.

Sure, I think the fact that Crosby and malkin spent basically their entire peak years on separate lines at even strength deserves some credit.

Malkin, by age 25, was pacing for the Top 25/30 range but injuries keeps him in the Top 50ish range

I disagree with your assessment of having Malkin ranked that low.

 

[daver]

Here is where I disagree with you a little.

Malkin had his share of injuries, but he also had a better peak, prime, and career than Forsberg, so how can he be rated near him? He has improved his position since seven years ago, IMO.

Forsberg was rated 51st in the last HOH section ratings. Yzerman was 40th and Sakic was 32nd.

Where would you have Malkin?

Sure, I think the fact that Crosby and malkin spent basically their entire peak years on separate lines at even strength deserves some credit.

It's not about giving credit to Crosby and Malkin, it's more about recognizing that Draisaitl playing so much time with McDavid is the exception, not the norm, when you have two franchise C's on a team.

Sakic and Forsberg don't get extra marks for playing separate, nor do Yzerman/Federov or Beliveau/H. Richard.

Maybe it's just a matter of time before Draisaitl proves he can carry a line consistently to the benefit of the Oilers in the playoffs but until then, it's a reasonable critique if he going up against the likes of Malkin, Forsberg, Sakic; players with similar offensive primes.

 

[daver]

2022 playoffs

McDrai at ES were 22 goals for, 9 against

McDavid at ES was 9 goals for, 8 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 1 goal for, 9 goals against


2023 playoffs

McDrai at ES were 8 goals for, 4 against

McDavid at ES was 3 goals for, 3 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 6 goal for, 7 goals against


2024 playoffs

McDrai at ES were 8 goals for, 5 against

McDavid at ES was 20 goals for, 9 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 15 goals for, 15 goals against


Total

McDrai at ES were 38 goals for, 18 against

McDavid at ES was 32 goals for, 20 goals against

Draisaitl at ES was 22 goals for, 31 goals against

Here are their SF% when together and when separate and most common linemates when away from each other:

2022

McDrai: SF% - 50% PLUS 11

McDavid: SF% - 60% (Kane, Puljujarvi) PLUS 1

Draisaitl: SF% - 36% (Hyman, Yamamoto) MINUS 8



2023

McDrai: SF% - 54% PLUS 4

McDavid: SF% - 60% (RNH, Hyman) ZERO

Draisaitl: SF% - 51% (Yamamoto, RNH) MINUS 1



2024

McDrai: SF% - 66% PLUS 3

McDavid: SF% - 56% (RNH, Hyman) PLUS 11

Draisaitl: SF% - 41% (Kane, Holloway) Zero


Total

McDrai: SF% - 55% PLUS 18

McDavid: SF% - 56% PLUS 12

Draisaitl: SF% - 44% MINUS 9


COMMENT

McDavid clearly was significantly superior than Draisaitl when on his own line.

And there is a pretty clear correlation between SF% and goals for and against.

McDavid was better with Draisaitl but a lot of that can be attributed to the McDrai/Kane line having tremendous success in 2022 (PLUS 8) despite being outshot. The next year they were ZERO despite a better SF%.

And to be fair, Draisaitl's MINUS 8 in 2022 is also a bit of a statistical anomaly.

You can give a marginal edge to McDavid in quality of linemates but it is clear that Draisaitl is not getting the scraps as many try to claim as an excuse for an inferior ES performance. When he had either Hyman or RNH on his line, he was a MINUS 4 and with a 46% SF%.

 

[OilerTitanFan]

If Germany beats Canada in the olympics gold medal game, Draisaitl scores a hatrick and Germany wins 3-2, on top of that, Draisaitl has the most points in the olympics, he will cement himself into the top 10. No other hockey player has singlehandedly dragged a non-top 6 team into the gold medal game. The closest thing to this is Jagr and Hasek beating canada at Nagano but Jagr did nothing in that game, it was all Hasek.

Hasek will be forever remembered for beating that hasbeen Patrick Roy no matter how you rank them.

Draisaitl beating mcdavid, mackinnon, makar, marner, etc... this would be unprecedented.

 

[Fatass]

Let’s see if he wins. If he can he moves into the top fifty, and higher depending on his contribution to the winning. Right now though he’s (imo) a good player but not one of the best. He does get to play with McDavid.

 

[Wings4Life]

Yzerman was 40th and Sakic was 32nd.

Where would you have Malkin?

Malkin was a better player than both, and I would rate him above both.

 

[daver]

Malkin was a better player than both, and I would rate him above both.

Rate him as a better player? I can buy that. In an all-time ranking, that's tougher.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Malkin was a better player than both, and I would rate him above both.

It's a balancing act between peak, prime, and career and how much you value each. I think Malkin had the highest peak of Sakic, Yzerman, and Forsberg but had so many injury plagued seasons. Overall I think they're all pretty close. Anywhere from 30-50 depending on what you value - also expect Drai to land in that group.

 

[Wings4Life]

Rate him as a better player? I can buy that. In an all-time ranking, that's tougher.

Rate him higher in an all-time sense. He has done enough, IMO.

 

[TheGoldenJet]

It's a balancing act between peak, prime, and career and how much you value each. I think Malkin had the highest peak of Sakic, Yzerman, and Forsberg but had so many injury plagued seasons. Overall I think they're all pretty close. Anywhere from 30-50 depending on what you value - also expect Drai to land in that group.

I don’t think Forsberg is close to Malkin/Sakic in a career value sense anymore.

 

[daver]

Rate him higher in an all-time sense. He has done enough, IMO.

He was 52nd in the HOH list as of Nov. 2018. He added yet another Top 10 PPG finish after that so it's doubtful he would have moved at all in an updated list.

I agree he hit the highest peak out of the group of Yzerman, Sakic, and Forsberg but the lack of full seasons vs. Sakic (#32) and Yzerman (#40) has to be figured in there somehow. His peak wasn't so dominant that it makes up that. Yzerman matched his RS peak/prime, Sakic matched his playoff peak/prime.

That being said, Draisaitl is a tough one to gauge vs. these four players given he hasn't done quite enough, IMO, sans McDavid, to rival the best of those four players.

 

[Wings4Life]

He was 52nd in the HOH list as of Nov. 2018. He added yet another Top 10 PPG finish after that so it's doubtful he would have moved at all in an updated list.

I don't want to derail this Draisaitl thread, but I feel Malkin was too low on that list created by HF users 7 years ago. And he's done more since then to move up.

I agree he hit the highest peak out of the group of Yzerman, Sakic, and Forsberg but the lack of full seasons vs. Sakic (#32) and Yzerman (#40) has to be figured in there somehow. His peak wasn't so dominant that it makes up that. Yzerman matched his RS peak/prime, Sakic matched his playoff peak/prime.

I think Malkin has the combination of both RS peak and playoff accolades that takes him over both. He now has good career totals as well, which he didn't have before. It's an interesting debate either way.