Actually probably worth adding he has more goals than any player drafted since 2011.
Where Does Auston Matthews Rank For You As A Goal Scorer All Time?
- Thread starter NVious
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Actually probably worth adding he has more goals than any player drafted since 2011.
Matthews is 26. I fully expect a healthy player to average 40+ goals a season for the next 8 seasons, which would put him close to 700 by Age 34.
I think he’ll finish his career a top 5 goal scorer of all time. I agree, his style of game should carry longevity.
filinski77
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"When we look at the stats, he is ahead of Ovechkin in everything, except career length and gross totals."
What lol? 9 rockets vs. 2 (3 if he wins this year). Ovechkin also has a higher single season goal total, and a higher single season adjusted total. Add in career length and gross totals, and Ovechkin is literally ahead of him in everything.
"Auston has higher peak level"
As mentioned above, Ovechkin has a higher single season raw total, single season adjusted total. If you want to compare their 3 best seasons through their first 7 years, you shake out like this ->
Raw:
| Player | Season | Ovi/Matthews | 10th | 30th | % over 10 | % over 30 |
| Ovi | 2008 | 65 | 40 | 29 | 63% | 124% |
| Matthews | 2021 | 41 | 26 | 20 | 58% | 105% |
| Ovi | 2009 | 56 | 39 | 31 | 44% | 81% |
| Matthews | 2022 | 60 | 42 | 34 | 43% | 76% |
| Ovi | 2010 | 50 | 35 | 29 | 43% | 72% |
| Matthews | 2020 | 47 | 34 | 26 | 38% | 81% |
Per GP:
| Player | Season | Ovi | 10th | 30th | % over 10 | % over 30 |
| Ovi | 2008 | 0.793 | 0.494 | 0.392 | 61% | 102% |
| Matthews | 2021 | 0.788 | 0.5 | 0.411 | 58% | 92% |
| Ovi | 2010 | 0.694 | 0.469 | 0.39 | 48% | 78% |
| Matthews | 2022 | 0.822 | 0.556 | 0.487 | 48% | 69% |
| Ovi | 2009 | 0.709 | 0.508 | 0.403 | 40% | 76% |
| Matthews | 2020 | 0.671 | 0.513 | 0.407 | 31% | 65% |
As you can see, relative to peers (best way imo to compare across different seasons with different scoring levels), Ovechkin peaked very slightly higher on a raw and /gp basis at the very highest. Note that this is a very tiny gap and I'm totally good with saying Matthews peak through 7 years is essentially the same as Ovechkins peak.
| RAW | % over 10th | % over 30th | PER GP | % over 10th | % over 30th |
| Ovi - first 7 yr avg | 28% | 59% | (perGP) | 24% | 54% |
| Matthews - first 7 yr avg | 18% | 48% | (per GP) | 20% | 48% |
| RAW | % over 10th | % over 30th | PER GP | % over 10th | % over 30th |
| Ovi - best 5 yrs in first 7 | 39% | 76% | (perGP) | 34% | 69% |
| Matthews - best 5 yrs in first 7 | 29% | 62% | (per GP) | 29% | 57% |
| RAW | % over 10th | % over 30th | PER GP | % over 10th | % over 30th |
| Ovi - best 3 yrs in first 7 | 50% | 92% | (perGP) | 49% | 85% |
| Matthews - best 3 yrs in first 7 | 46% | 87% | (per GP) | 45% | 75% |
If you want to compare year 8: Practically dead even.
| Matthews | 38 | Ovechkin | 32 | ||
| #2 | 34 | 12% | #2 | 29 | 10% |
| #10 | 26 | 46% | #10 | 21 | 52% |
| #30 | 20 | 90% | #30 | 17 | 88% |
"better consistency"
Incorrect - see the stats above.
"higher scoring when adjusted to games played"
Incorrect - see the stats above. Scoring levels have obviously been slightly different. But relative to the rest of the league, Ovechkin has been just as good (if not better) on a /gp basis through the start of their careers.
"Also, what is often forgotten in the conversation, he has been in another league as compared to Ovi in 5v5 scoring. This speaks both to Auston's more well-rounded game and Ovi's reliance (but also skill) on scoring from the point on the PP."
Worth understanding how much the scoring environment has changed. From Ovi's start vs. Matthews start, scoring was went up slightly, despite PP opportunities going down a lot. What that means is that PP efficiency and even strength scoring are both easier/higher.
If we look at their first 8 years each and even-strength goals (I know not exactly 5v5, but close enough for comparative purposes). Here are raw EVG, as well as EVG/gp (to qualify you needed to be in the top-50 in goals in that time span - to eliminate outliers without enough games).
Result is that Ovechkin's actual production was much better relative to his peers, and on a /gp basis I would give a small advantage to Matthews (but nowhere NEAR 'another league') - and obviously a portion of that gap of actual vs. /gp would be due to Ovechkin having played more games in his time-period compared to his peers vs. Matthews (helps with raw totals, but hurts /gp since it's harder to maintain over larger sample)
| Ovechkin | 240 | Ovechkin | 0.40 | ||
| #2 | 194 | 24% | #2 | 0.36 | 10% |
| #10 | 152 | 58% | #10 | 0.29 | 39% |
| #30 | 126 | 90% | #30 | 0.23 | 71% |
| Matthews | 252 | Matthews | 0.48 | ||
| #2 | 224 | 13% | #2 | 0.40 | 21% |
| #10 | 166 | 52% | #10 | 0.31 | 56% |
| #30 | 136 | 85% | #30 | 0.27 | 80% |
"Now, obviously in terms of career vs career comparison Ovi leads due to his long successful career, but Matthews has literally been the better scorer ever since his entry to the league in terms of pure performance."
Completely false as I showed above with the stats.
"Rookie-to-date Matthews has outperfomed even the best 7 year stretch Ovi ever had. That should speak for itself."
Also completely false. I showed above in one of the tables how through first 7 years, through their best 3 year stretch, best 5 year stretch etc. that Ovechkin outperformed his peers better on a raw and per/gp basis.
Not only all of the above, but even when we start talking year 9 and onwards, Ovechkin's real 'goalscoring' peak is actually the 6 rockets in 7 years (which includes a 3 year peak which is just as good as his 08-10 peak goalscoring).
| Ovi | 10th | 30th | % over 10 | % over 30 | |
| 2014 | 51 | 34 | 28 | 50% | 82% |
| 2015 | 53 | 33 | 27 | 61% | 96% |
| 2016 | 50 | 33 | 29 | 52% | 72% |
| 2017 | 33 | 34 | 29 | -3% | 14% |
| 2018 | 49 | 39 | 31 | 26% | 58% |
| 2019 | 51 | 41 | 33 | 24% | 55% |
| 2020 | 48 | 34 | 26 | 41% | 85% |
| 2021 | 24 | 26 | 20 | -8% | 20% |
| 2022 | 50 | 42 | 34 | 19% | 47% |
TLDR: Ovechkin vs: Matthews through 8 years is still definitely in Ovechkins favor on a raw and /gp basis compared to his peers. It's very close, and Matthews has peaked pretty much almost as high as Ovechkin did - which is extremely impressive, and one of the best peaks of all-time imo.
But - that was the easy part as far as Ovi vs. Matthews. The hard part will be for Matthews to try and come anywhere close to 6 rockets from age 27 onwards (or 7 if he doesn't win this year), and to essentially replicate his 3 year peak and do it again (which Ovechkin did as well).
Matthews just stays at around 40 goals a year until 35, then he will be the next one that they drag across the finish line to get the goals record.
He puts up 70 this year and it’s hard to not put him right there with peak Ovechkin.
He puts up 70 this year and it’s hard to not put him right there with peak Ovechkin.
WingsFan95
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All I see is 2 league lead in goals with a probable 3rd incoming.
Yes I and most understand his GPG and it's not nothing but if going by that metric one could throw around a guy like Bure being the best of his "era". I think most would agree here that era is at least 5 years and that's still lowballing. A decade or a little less is typically considered to be a large enough sample size to group together.
Esposito for himself is a massive outlier for his numbers (yes the Orr factor but more on him too) where if we compare him to say Matthews so far then that's a joke. Of course Ovechkin has lead the league in goals on a record 9 occasions AND from when Matthews entered the league 3 times.
If we already include this season then Matthews has a 5 year run one could point to him being the best. And going back does 5 years an era make? Why not wait another 2-3 seasons before making that call and THEN giving Matthews his due?
WingsFan95
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On another note with the 700-750-800 career goal markers. We have seen more players expected to hit those totals and not for a variety of reasons than those who have. Lemieux being the biggest example but followed by:
Selanne, Bure, Mogilny, Yzerman, Robitaille, Sakic, Iginla, Kurri, Kovalchuk
Crosby has had a lot of injuries and missed time and I don't think he was ever expected to hit 700 but it looked at one point to be a probability and now we see even with a resurgent season it's simply too late. Stamkos still has a shot I guess but he's another one that was expected to easily hit 700 after Ovechkin right?
Prior to Ovechkin the statistically best options for 800+ were Brett Hull and Jagr. Of course we know how much time Jagr missed and it'll always be a huge what if for a variety of reasons (if he doesn't leave the NHL when he did does he leave earlier to Kladno??? Or does he not rejuvenate his dedication, etc, etc). Brett Hull on the other hand is clearly hampered by a late start with his first major season being at age 23. However it's another Jagr scenario where we can't automatically assume he puts up better numbers just adding younger seasons since that would drastically change his development and where he winds up in terms of teams. But on the surface his 2nd season with Dallas and the 04-05 lockout is the easiest to point to him not hitting 800.
So any suggestion Matthews should be expected or "likely", etc, etc, etc to breeze through 700 is extreme hype.
Selanne, Bure, Mogilny, Yzerman, Robitaille, Sakic, Iginla, Kurri, Kovalchuk
Crosby has had a lot of injuries and missed time and I don't think he was ever expected to hit 700 but it looked at one point to be a probability and now we see even with a resurgent season it's simply too late. Stamkos still has a shot I guess but he's another one that was expected to easily hit 700 after Ovechkin right?
Prior to Ovechkin the statistically best options for 800+ were Brett Hull and Jagr. Of course we know how much time Jagr missed and it'll always be a huge what if for a variety of reasons (if he doesn't leave the NHL when he did does he leave earlier to Kladno??? Or does he not rejuvenate his dedication, etc, etc). Brett Hull on the other hand is clearly hampered by a late start with his first major season being at age 23. However it's another Jagr scenario where we can't automatically assume he puts up better numbers just adding younger seasons since that would drastically change his development and where he winds up in terms of teams. But on the surface his 2nd season with Dallas and the 04-05 lockout is the easiest to point to him not hitting 800.
So any suggestion Matthews should be expected or "likely", etc, etc, etc to breeze through 700 is extreme hype.
David Bruce Banner
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Rob Brown
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He's scored the most goals since he entered the league. It's hard to argue that he isn't the best goal scorer. If you want to say he's second best 'of the era' cause Ovechkin is still playing then fine, but he's clearly ahead of Ovechkin at this point in time.
Huh? He has the most goals since he started playing. Including every single player who was drafted up to 5 years before him he still has the most goals…
Also Ovechkin led the NHL in goals 3 times after his 8th season and Matthews is likely about to do the same. Each also did it in a lockout shortened season. Not only is he the best goal scorer since he entered the league, there’s literally a massive gap between him and the next best player at this point.
He has a long way to go and hundreds of goals left to score to rank anywhere at this point. Probably one of the most skilled but he has a lot of years left to determine all time ranking. Let him score his 600th or 700th goal first.
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Rants Mulliniks
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Now look at ice time and situation.
Exactly. Right now all we can talk about is how he compares through the same points in time. It certainly looks very promising but anything can happen.
Rants Mulliniks
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As recently as this year people were still saying you can't compare Matthews and Ovechkin, Matthews is more like Stamkos. All you can compare is to the same point in their careers.
FYI up to the age 26 season Matthews 82 game pace is a 53 goal average versus Stamkos at 45 (that’s a large percentage difference). Ovechkin was at 50.
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SkinsFan09
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WingsFan95
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Matthews not having full seasons though doesn't paint a great picture. Reminds me too much of Bure.
But like Djokovic in tennis, Ovechkin's second half of his career is just mind-blowing and we're starting to see more of these established legends maintaining in their later years (I mean, money right?) which for me really downgrades these fastest to accomplishments. I've brought up the GPG averages for other Hall of Famers.
People like to forget this and there's a very clear reason Wayne never ran away with this one. To me one of the most underrated career stats.
And Bossy was 59.25 oh since he scored 61 more in his 9th year can we just say 60? And Gretzky had a 68 goal average in his 1st 8 seasons. The thing with Ovechkin is longetivity not so much the number he scored in a single season.
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Rants Mulliniks
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Bruce Granville
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It's a discussion forum and it's interesting to compare and speculate, I get that, and no one forces one to partcitipate... but he's 26 or what? Just saying seems a bit early for this.
archangel2
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threads like this cause me to scratch my head,
How can he be top 20 or anywhere near the top 10 when he sits 171th over all in goals scored? That whole goals per game argument is being hit hard this year with Alex having a wHopping 8 goals. Also he only has 600pts--to put that in perspective? McDavid who came into the league one year earlier has 913 pts. McDavid missed nearly half his rookie season due to injury and he has 322. Leaf fans can be ass hurt, but I reject the goals per game statistic until they are into their 30s.
And just add more perspective--until he hits 500 goals he is not in the conversations for top 50 all time.
here is the list of all time top scorers--most have done their career but many have not
NHL Records
records.nhl.com
where does he stand? IF he played for any OTHER team but the leafs? This thread would have been closed. Where does he stand? His career is not even half over or it may end tomorrow--we do not know.
Rants Mulliniks
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Your logic is all over the map. Don’t be alarmed if people reject it.threads like this cause me to scratch my head,
How can he be top 20 or anywhere near the top 10 when he sits 171th over all in goals scored? That whole goals per game argument is being hit hard this year with Alex having a wHopping 8 goals. Also he only has 600pts--to put that in perspective? McDavid who came into the league one year earlier has 913 pts. McDavid missed nearly half his rookie season due to injury and he has 322. Leaf fans can be ass hurt, but I reject the goals per game statistic until they are into their 30s.
And just add more perspective--until he hits 500 goals he is not in the conversations for top 50 all time.
here is the list of all time top scorers--most have done their career but many have not
NHL Records
where does he stand? IF he played for any OTHER team but the leafs? This thread would have been closed. Where does he stand? His career is not even half over or it may end tomorrow--we do not know.
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