Where Does Auston Matthews Rank For You As A Goal Scorer All Time?

[BlueBaron]

Respective to his cap hit his production is incredibly lacking. Edmonton will be fine paying McDrai $30m combined because those two produce in the playoffs.

Matthews and the Leafs core being underwhelming is devastating for Toronto because they eat up so much cap space that doesn’t give them value in the playoffs. It’s not bias, it’s the simple realities of a cap league.

Great story. Has nothing to do with what I said.

I think their point stands. For a guy who has played 91% of his playoffs games exclusively in the first round, his decline in production is significant. So far, he’s a 54 goal scorer in the regular season and the equivalent of a 34 goal scorer in the playoffs. No matter how you spin it, that’s a big decline.

If we split his eight playoffs down the middle, he started with 12 goals in his first 25 games and has 11 in his last 30. This decline has coincided with him becoming a 60+ goal scorer over the past four seasons.

We can’t pretend it’s not a glaring disappointment and there’s no need to sugarcoat it. When someone is a player of the caliber that he is, it’s a given that he needs to come close to his own high standards that he set. It is terrible for a forward who has been top 5 in the world for awhile now. Why would you give this a pass?

I don’t think it’ll be this way forever, but call a spade a spade.

It really doesn't but thanks for playing. It's still above average playoff goal scoring.

 

[filinski77]

I am not sure you can argue that there are 20 players with clearly "greater" goalscoring resumes.

#2 in goals scored (Ovechkin)
# 3 in GPG (Ovechkin, Stamkos)
Top 10 goal finishes (1, 1, 7, 7, 17*) *#1 in GPG
# of Top 20 goal finishes/Top 20 in GPG - 15

#3 in playoff goals (Pavelski, Ovechkin)
#3 in GPG (Ovechkin, Zetterberg)

His two Rocket wins are notable. Only Ovechkin, Matthews have more in his era. His longevity is notable.


Is his resume that much weaker than Jagr and Beliveau with all things considered? There was a brief spell where he was scoring goals at a rate the was rivalling peak Ovechkin.

Crosby is a unique case, yes he's 2nd in goals over the course of his career, but also has had a lot of the top goalscorers (other than Ovechkin) split times as either ending their career or starting their career.

Of players who started their career relatively similarly, Crosby is the clear #3 behind Ovechkin and Stamkos. Add to that that you had Kovalchuk and Iginla ending their careers around the first 1/2 of Crosby's career, and the fact that guys like Matthews, Crosby, Draisaitl, Pastrnak all started at the 2nd half of Crosby's career - it's not a simple comparison. You use goal/gp, but use a cutoff that excludes the mentioned players.

You outline his top-10 goal finishes, which in and of itself outlines why he does not belong in the top-20 of all-time. He has 2 of the weakest rocket wins of the last 20 years, and then only 2 other 7th place finishes (where he was only like 6% and 9% ahead of #10). He's been consistently good at goal scoring, but only has 4 top-10 finishes in his career. Not good enough.

You mention playoff goals per game, but do a cutoff that removes too many of the better playoff goal scorers that don't have enough career goals in your mind.

You mention playoff goals, but leave out the fact that he has some of the highest games played in the playoffs as well - will of course skew the results.

Not to mention that Crosby is also one of the worst cup final goal scorers of all-time (amongst elite players). I am not trying to be a hater here either, that's just a fact.
-> He has 4 goals in 25 cup final games (13 goals over 82gp pace)
-> There are 14 ACTIVE players with more cup final goals than Crosby does, and all of them have less games than Crosby does in the finals (other than Perry who has 2 more goals in 2 more games)
-> There are another 7 active players with 4 cup final goals who have half or less than half as many GP as Crosby
-> Defenceman Alec Martinez has the same 4 cup final goals, but in 9 less cup final games
-> There are 8 more active players that have scored 3 cup finals goals, but in only 1 playoff series, whereas Crosby has played 4 series.

Essentially - talk all you want about his playoff goals - but it's not bumping him up at all in all-time goal greatness when he has such a huge individual blemish on his track record like that.

Not to mention one of the lowest goal peaks for anyone he's competing for all-time.

As far as 20 players with greater goalscoring resumes, I personally have Crosby 25th (I don't want any backlash for misc placements or my lack of pre-40's players lol, I did this quick).

I would say the first 15 are all pretty non-arguable. They all have either:
A) Way more goals + better top goal finishes (Robitaille, Dionne, Jagr). Even if they didn't win a rocket, over double the amount of top-10 finishes.
B) Less goals, but significantly better top-end finishes and higher goalscoring peaks (Stamkos, Beliveau, Bossy, Richard)

Matthews and Bure both have decently less goals, but 3 strong rockets vs. 2 weaker ones. Plus 5x top-5 finishes vs. 2 (and only 4x top-10). Also significantly higher peaks.

Next group are all closer to Crosby in goals (other than Yzerman), and all have 50% or more top-10 finishes than Crosby.

Iginla and Crosby are about as neck and neck as you can get, but Iginla's 3rd place finishes are way better relative to the league than Crosby's 7th's.

And honestly I don't see Crosby climbing much either. McDavid will pass him in like 2 more seasons if he cranks out a couple more top-10 finishes and nets 80+ more goals, same with Draisaitl. Mackinnon and Pastrnak could conceivably too within the next 5 years.

	Player	Career RS Goals	Top-10 goal finishes
1​	Ovechkin	853​	1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/3/3/4/4/5/9
2​	Hull Sr.	610​	1/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/3/4/5/6
3​	Gretzky	894​	1/1/1/1/1/4/4/5/6
4​	Howe	801​	1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/2/3/3/5/5/6/6/7/7/8
5​	Lemieux	690​	1/1/1/3/3/3/7/7/9
6​	Esposito	717​	1/1/1/1/1/1/2/4/8
7​	Richard	544​	1/1/1/1/1/2/2/23/4/4/5/6
8​	Bossy	573​	1/1/2/2/2/3/3/5/7
9​	Hull Jr.	741​	1/1/1/2/6/8/9/10
10​	Selanne	684​	1/1/1/2/3/10
11​	Beliveau	507​	1/1/2/3/3/4/5/7/8/9
12​	Jagr	766​	2/2/2/2/3/4/6/9
13​	Stamkos	555​	1/1/2/2/2/4/7/9
14​	Dionne	731​	2/2/3/4/5/5/8/9/10
15​	Robitaille	668​	4/4/6/7/7/9/9/10/10
16​	Matthews	368​	1/1/1/2/3
17​	Bure	437​	1/1/1/3/5
18​	Mahovlich	533​	2/2/2/2/3/4/6/7
19​	Kovalchuk	443​	1/2/3/4/6/6/7/8
20​	Lafleur	560​	1/2/2/2/3/7
21​	Mikita	541​	2/2/2/3/4/5/6
22​	Bondra	503​	1/1/4/4/6/8
23​	Yzerman	692​	2/2/3/6/6/6
24​	Iginla	625​	1/1/3/3
25​	Crosby	592​	1/1/7/7

 

[Tuna99]

2nd best C behind McDavid. If Matthews okayed with Makar (or an elite offensive Damn) for 10 years he could break Gretzky’s record

 

[MacMacandBarbie]

You mention playoff goals, but leave out the fact that he has some of the highest games played in the playoffs as well - will of course skew the results.

He is ranked 66th all time in goals per game playing in the lowest scoring era in recent memory.

Not to mention that Crosby is also one of the worst cup final goal scorers of all-time (amongst elite players). I am not trying to be a hater here

Not trying to be a hater, but yet you bring up an obscure stat that absolutely nobody uses as a measuring stick for comparing goal scorers.

Essentially - talk all you want about his playoff goals - but it's not bumping him up at all in all-time goal greatness when he has such a huge individual blemish on his track record like that.

His success in finding the back of the net at a rate similar to the best to ever do it in the playoffs will certainly be a factor, despite this 'blemish' you have nitpicked.

As far as 20 players with greater goalscoring resumes, I personally have Crosby 25th (I don't want any backlash for misc placements or my lack of pre-40's players lol, I did this quick).

Thats actually a level headed assessment, just don't agree how you came to it.

I would say the first 15 are all pretty non-arguable. They all have either:
A) Way more goals + better top goal finishes (Robitaille, Dionne, Jagr). Even if they didn't win a rocket, over double the amount of top-10 finishes.

Crosby easily in this group of goal scorers. He has a better back hand and around the net finishing ability than all of them.

B) Less goals, but significantly better top-end finishes and higher goalscoring peaks (Stamkos, Beliveau, Bossy, Richard)

But doesn't belong in this list.

	Player	Career RS Goals	Top-10 goal finishes
1​	Ovechkin	853​	1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/3/3/4/4/5/9
2​	Hull Sr.	610​	1/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/3/4/5/6
3​	Gretzky	894​	1/1/1/1/1/4/4/5/6
4​	Howe	801​	1/1/1/1/1/2/2/2/2/3/3/5/5/6/6/7/7/8
5​	Lemieux	690​	1/1/1/3/3/3/7/7/9
6​	Esposito	717​	1/1/1/1/1/1/2/4/8
7​	Richard	544​	1/1/1/1/1/2/2/23/4/4/5/6
8​	Bossy	573​	1/1/2/2/2/3/3/5/7
9​	Hull Jr.	741​	1/1/1/2/6/8/9/10
10​	Selanne	684​	1/1/1/2/3/10
11​	Beliveau	507​	1/1/2/3/3/4/5/7/8/9
12​	Jagr	766​	2/2/2/2/3/4/6/9
13​	Stamkos	555​	1/1/2/2/2/4/7/9
14​	Dionne	731​	2/2/3/4/5/5/8/9/10
15​	Robitaille	668​	4/4/6/7/7/9/9/10/10
16​	Matthews	368​	1/1/1/2/3
17​	Bure	437​	1/1/1/3/5
18​	Mahovlich	533​	2/2/2/2/3/4/6/7
19​	Kovalchuk	443​	1/2/3/4/6/6/7/8
20​	Lafleur	560​	1/2/2/2/3/7
21​	Mikita	541​	2/2/2/3/4/5/6
22​	Bondra	503​	1/1/4/4/6/8
23​	Yzerman	692​	2/2/3/6/6/6
24​	Iginla	625​	1/1/3/3
25​	Crosby	592​	1/1/7/7

This list is terrible. You have jagr 12th. As a goalscorer!? You put players like Mahovlich, but not Conacher on the list. Head scratching to say the least.

 

[Alexander the Gr8]

He has the potential to become the best if he can keep doing what he does and have some luck on his side. It’s a long road to 894 though (or wherever Ovi ends up).

Let’s see where he’s at once he turns 30 before ranking him against people who finished/nearly finished their careers.

 

[Plural]

At this point, he's projecting better than Bossy was, right?

So, in a sense he is one of the very rare scorers who 8 seasons in their careers STILL looks like has a chance to be the greatest/best scorer in history. Will he? Unlikely. But he has a chance and that's saying a lot.

Edit. He needs to up his playoff performance though. If he's being compared to the absolute greatest scorers in history, you can't have that weak playoff stats/showings. But just a few big runs with good totals will do a lot.

 

[LokiDog]

Meh, he’ll likely be one of the all time greats. He may not end up in Ovie/Gretzky territory, but he’ll be discussed with Hull and Bure and Kovy and all-time great goal scorers forever.

 

[daver]

Crosby is a unique case, yes he's 2nd in goals over the course of his career, but also has had a lot of the top goalscorers (other than Ovechkin) split times as either ending their career or starting their career.

Of players who started their career relatively similarly, Crosby is the clear #3 behind Ovechkin and Stamkos. Add to that that you had Kovalchuk and Iginla ending their careers around the first 1/2 of Crosby's career, and the fact that guys like Matthews, Crosby, Draisaitl, Pastrnak all started at the 2nd half of Crosby's career - it's not a simple comparison. You use goal/gp, but use a cutoff that excludes the mentioned players.

Let's rate Stamkos, Crosby, Kovalchuk and Iginla based on the strength of their career totals relative to their peers:


Career goal total:

1. Iginla - #1
T2. Crosby - #2 /Stamkos - #2 (Ovechkin)
4. Kovalchuk - #6

Career GPG (among Top 10)

T1. Stamkos - #2
2. Kovalchuk - #2, Crosby - #2 (Ovechkin, Stamkos)
4. Iginla # 6

Career playoff goal total:

1. Crosby - #3
2. Stamkos - #9
3. Iginla #T31
4. Kovalchuk - N/A

Career playoff GPG (among Top 10)

T1. Crosby #3 (Ovechkin, Zetterberg)/ Stamkos #3 (Ovechkin, Crosby)
3. Iginla N/A*
4. Kovalchuk - N/A

Best Rocket win

1. Stamkos
2. Ignila
3. Crosby
4. Kovalschuk

Best Playoff performance

1. Crosby
2. Iginla
T3. Stamkos/Kovalchuk


Comments:

Stamkos has the best regular season performance and one of the best of his era
Crosby has the best playoff performance and one of the best of his era

FYI, the weakest Rocket win since 1996/97 is in 2003/04 when three players (Iggy, Kovy and Nash) tied at 41 goals.

Iginla did well enough in the playoffs to not warrant critique but did not do enough to warrant praise

Kovalchuk simply did not play enough playoff games to measure up negatively against the others.

Crosby being the primary source of his team's success in the regular season to get them to the playoffs is a positive.

Stamkos being 4th in goals and 3rd in GPG on his team over the course of the Bolts' four Cup runs and six CFs is worthy of critique.

I don't see anything "clear" here.

Crosby wins the playoff goalscoring title
Crosby wins the longevity title
Crosby is arguably 2nd to Stamkos in peak

And all of this is doesn't take into consideration that Crosby was clearly the best playmaker of the four and clearly the best 2-way player.