When does the Yzerplan start getting criticized?

[LuGBuG]

Wait, so you use an example of a 2016 pick Bratt to show us Yzerman needs to draft better?

1). Ken Holland drafted Filip Hronek in the 2nd round that year [2016] who is more valuable than Bratt. So, ummm... there's that.

Hronek is CERTAINLY not more valuable than Bratt. Let’s use our brains in here please.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I don't think that really changes much for Detroit in the big picture though.

As much of a shit show as it is at the moment, long-term, the d-core is not the issue. They ended up with ASP the following year, and considering they traded to get a shot at him in the 1st round, may have already had him targeted.

Like you said Buchelnikov is a good prospect, which they need up front. I also would not be writing off Dylan James yet. A long way to go for him for sure, but I do think he gets a contract after this season.

I'm not writing off James entirely. Not sure how much UND you watch/follow, but I watch the Fighting Hawks most weekends and listen to Brad Schlossman's UND Hockey Podcast, and from everything I've watched/gathered, James has a ton of tools in his bag but doesn't consistently put it together for greater results individually and collectively. If he did, North Dakota would be higher up in the Pairwise right now and he'd have been a more productive player every year in the NCAA. I like the player & skillset that James has, but he leaves you wanting a lot more. Definite solid bottom 6 potential if he puts it together further, but a relatively long way to go before making it as a good NHLer.

I just much rather prefer a better player like Seamus Casey, who I had a mid 1st round grade on, and Lane Hutson, who I had a mid-late 1st round grade on. Both were great NCAA players who are doing pretty well in small sample sizes in North American pro hockey as first year pros.

 

[Dotter]

Hronek is CERTAINLY not more valuable than Bratt. Let’s use our brains in here please.

1st pairing 50 point ornery RHD on a good contract vs PPG winger. Your math ain't mathing...

 

[TKB]

I'm not writing off James entirely. Not sure how much UND you watch/follow, but I watch the Fighting Hawks most weekends and listen to Brad Schlossman's UND Hockey Podcast, and from everything I've watched/gathered, James has a ton of tools in his bag but doesn't consistently put it together for greater results individually and collectively. If he did, North Dakota would be higher up in the Pairwise right now and he'd have been a more productive player every year in the NCAA. I like the player & skillset that James has, but he leaves you wanting a lot more. Definite solid bottom 6 potential if he puts it together further, but a relatively long way to go before making it as a good NHLer.

I just much rather prefer a better player like Seamus Casey, who I had a mid 1st round grade on, and Lane Hutson, who I had a mid-late 1st round grade on. Both were great NCAA players who are doing pretty well in small sample sizes in North American pro hockey as first year pros.

Interesting.

To be clear, all of my thoughts on prospects are based on other peoples accounts and sources- paying attention to what is said and just as important-unsaid, and try to identify a trend of progress or stagnation.

I have played, officiated, and watched a lot of hockey in my lifetime, and will gladly tell you who I think the better players on the ice are, but that is entirely different than projecting what guys can do at higher levels. Once in awhile that jumps out at you, but for the most part I leave it to the professionals or trusted voices that are really watching to inform me then I take my ouija board and go from there

I appreciate your take, which is similar to what I have read, but I did see some commentary that he had come on late last year, and notice he has been able to at least get on the scoresheet in the early going this season.

I don't know much about Casey and Hutson, but I do feel strongly that at ultimately Yzerman will have put together a top-tier top 4 d-core. He clearly has a plan and prototype of what he is looking for and then ASP (and of course guys like Hutson and Casey) can really thrive playing along side those big, good skating but still with some edge type of guys.

 

[TheNumber4]

Not so easy for Yzerman without an extra 10% to spend due to no taxes.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Interesting.

To be clear, all of my thoughts on prospects are based on other peoples accounts and sources- paying attention to what is said and just as important-unsaid, and try to identify a trend of progress or stagnation.

I have played, officiated, and watched a lot of hockey in my lifetime, and will gladly tell you who I think the better players on the ice are, but that is entirely different than projecting what guys can do at higher levels. Once in awhile that jumps out at you, but for the most part I leave it to the professionals or trusted voices that are really watching to inform me then I take my ouija board and go from there

I appreciate your take, which is similar to what I have read, but I did see some commentary that he had come on late last year, and notice he has been able to at least get on the scoresheet in the early going this season.

I don't know much about Casey and Hutson, but I do feel strongly that at ultimately Yzerman will have put together a top-tier top 4 d-core. He clearly has a plan and prototype of what he is looking for and then ASP (and of course guys like Hutson and Casey) can really thrive playing along side those big, good skating but still with some edge type of guys.

Thoughtful well explained post. Much appreciated.

James came on late in 2022-23, late in 2023-24, and has shown flashes in 2024-25 so far. I like the player and have many posts on him in his threads on here, it's just not consistent enough right now for me to think he's a full time solid contributor in the NHL. Maybe he can become what Tyler Motte is now, or what slightly past prime Darren Helm was, play a lot of PK, and be a reliable 4th liner.

I just think Casey and Hutson were not only always better players to draft, but also more valuable prospect/player capital to use in trades if you were looking to make a huge trade. Luckily for the Wings, Buchelnikov is turning himself into quite valuable prospect capital at minimum and could become a solid scorer in the NHL down the road, but there's no guarantee of that.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Not so easy for Yzerman without an extra 10% to spend due to no taxes.

Yeah, he got exposed with those terrible contracts for Larkin/Seider/Raymond.

 

[cvaicunas]

The point though is that while sure NJ has maybe missed on someone like Holtz, they have hit on picks that weren't expected to like Bratt or Casey or Mercer (or a UFA or trade acquisition like Seigenthaler). DET hasn't done that yet. Can't just always be doing everything at pace or expectation, there needs to be some sort of overperformance somewhere. Maybe that's Augustine or Mazur or someone else down the line, but as of right now it's no one. It's a real problem with Yzerman that there's not a single guy on the roster you can point to -- even if it's a third liner or a 4D -- and go "wow he really made a lot out of nothing there." An even bigger one to me that he doesn't seem that interested in even trying to find those kinds of guys.

Your point is valid, but I think the reality is Yzerman prefers prospects ripen outside of the NHL. So that approach does lend itself to giving more time to seeing how his drafts have panned out.

 

[Realgud]

I liked when Yzerman was buying low on players hoping they become contributors so they could build up their value and potentially help the team or get something in return from a trade. He found moderate success with some players like Fabbri, Walman, Husso, Nedeljkovic, Vrana, Staal. Those were good moves when the team had very low value all around (on the roster or in the pipeline) so he had to find it in some other ways. Yzerman was very good at extracting value where most would think there was none to get anymore.

 

[LuGBuG]

1st pairing 50 point ornery RHD on a good contract vs PPG winger. Your math ain't mathing...

My math ain’t mathing yet he’s never hit 50 points and his pace is definitely not on it this year. Seems like your math ain’t mathing big fella. He had a ridiculous unsustainable 11 game point streak early in Vancouver last year which is why he got close. I like Hronek. Quite a bit actually. Though no team is trading Bratt straight up for Hronek.

 

[Czechboy]

My math ain’t mathing yet he’s never hit 50 points and his pace is definitely not on it this year. Seems like your math ain’t mathing big fella. He had a ridiculous unsustainable 11 game point streak early in Vancouver last year which is why he got close. I like Hronek. Quite a bit actually. Though no team is trading Bratt straight up for Hronek.

I think he had 2 hot starts and faded back to back seasons. This year he is starting slow and will end hot. You heard it here first.lol

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

My math ain’t mathing yet he’s never hit 50 points and his pace is definitely not on it this year. Seems like your math ain’t mathing big fella. He had a ridiculous unsustainable 11 game point streak early in Vancouver last year which is why he got close. I like Hronek. Quite a bit actually. Though no team is trading Bratt straight up for Hronek.

Everybody loves talking about the first half of his season last year but...

Hronek 23-24 first 42 games: 3G, 33A, +32
Hronek 23-24 last 52 games (Including playoffs): 3G, 11A, -3
Hronek 24-25 18 games: 1G, 6A, +9

He had a great half season in a contract year and has since come back down to reality.

 

[LuGBuG]

I think he had 2 hot starts and faded back to back seasons. This year he is starting slow and will end hot. You heard it here first.lol

Haha no doubt he could! I like Hronek. Just had to point out the non mathing math used by HFs resident mathematician.

 

[nbwingsfan]

Defense would look better if Draper & scouts drafted Seamus Casey and Lane Hutson instead of Dylan James and Dmitri Buchelnikov in the 2nd round in 2022.

Granted, Buchelnikov COULD become a nice 2nd line score if/when he comes over, but Hutson was much better value in that slot then & now.

You mean if Detroit had drafted the two best prospect steals in the draft they’d be a better team? Thats crazy!

You know who else can say that? every single team in rhe NHL who didnt draft them

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Defense would look better if Draper & scouts drafted Seamus Casey and Lane Hutson instead of Dylan James and Dmitri Buchelnikov in the 2nd round in 2022.

Granted, Buchelnikov COULD become a nice 2nd line score if/when he comes over, but Hutson was much better value in that slot then & now.

Yeah, dunno what we're gonna do without a small offensively gifted defenseman in our prospect pool.

... Oh wait.

 

[Bankers Box]

1st pairing 50 point ornery RHD on a good contract vs PPG winger. Your math ain't mathing...

awful take.

No team in the NHL is taking Hronek over Bratt.

 

[Pavels Dog]

Other teams have done well during that time period getting solid NHL contributors like Hoglander, Vlasic, Dorofeyev, Maccelli, Wolf, Peterka, Evangelista, Faber, Cuylle, Laferriere, Stankoven, Knies, Moser, Casey, & Hutson beyond the 1st round,

This argument always falls pretty flat because you're comparing the combined results of 31 teams vs. 1 team. Even then you're struggling to put together a list of guys that are both actually playing in the NHL and doing well.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

This argument always falls pretty flat because you're comparing the combined results of 31 teams vs. 1 team. Even then you're struggling to put together a list of guys that are both actually playing in the NHL and doing well.

That's fair, my point is that the Wings need to start hitting doubles if not massive home runs with non 1st round picks from recent drafts to speed things up. Getting games from Albert Johansson isn't doing anything. Yzerman is doing pretty damn well with his 1st round picks in Detroit (picks he had direct input on), but the end of the Tyler Wright staff (pretty sure 2019 Draft was still Wright's staff) into Draper (2020-present), the 2nd-7th rounders look slightly below replacement value expectations at best.

Like I said in previous posts, Lombardi & Buchelnikov could be anywhere from solid to massive hits, and Mazur appears to a nice middle 6 option that provides value.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

That's fair, my point is that the Wings need to start hitting doubles if not massive home runs with non 1st round picks from recent drafts to speed things up. Getting games from Albert Johansson isn't doing anything. Yzerman is doing pretty damn well with his 1st round picks in Detroit (picks he had direct input on), but the end of the Tyler Wright staff (pretty sure 2019 Draft was still Wright's staff) into Draper (2020-present), the 2nd-7th rounders look slightly below replacement value expectations at best.

Like I said in previous posts, Lombardi & Buchelnikov could be anywhere from solid to massive hits, and Mazur appears to a nice middle 6 option that provides value.

Ehh, I think the importance of this is a bit exaggerated. Generally, yes, you do need to have some good later picks to be successful. Yzerman in Tampa, for example needed picks like Point/Kucherov/Cirelli outside the first round to get that team to Cup contention. But let's also be very honest here... Yzerman's first round drafting in Tampa was absolutely f***ing abysmal. They drafted a franchise goalie, but outside that you had picks like Koekkoek, Connolly, and Cal Foote that did not pan out at all.

That's a stark contrast from Yzerman's drafting in Detroit. His 2019, 2020, and 2021 firsts are all core players. Potential until proven is just that, potential, but Cossa and ASP both have high end/elite potential. Kasper/Danielson both look like good two way centers who will, at worst, stick in the NHL as role players.

And then you look at a team like Colorado. After getting ROR and Barrier outside the first round in 2009, their drafting outside the first round has been absolute shit. Granted, Detroit doesn't have a MacKinnon or a Makar in their organization.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

Ehh, I think the importance of this is a bit exaggerated. Generally, yes, you do need to have some good later picks to be successful. Yzerman in Tampa, for example needed picks like Point/Kucherov/Cirelli outside the first round to get that team to Cup contention. But let's also be very honest here... Yzerman's first round drafting in Tampa was absolutely f***ing abysmal. They drafted a franchise goalie, but outside that you had picks like Koekkoek, Connolly, and Cal Foote that did not pan out at all.

That's a stark contrast from Yzerman's drafting in Detroit. His 2019, 2020, and 2021 firsts are all core players. Potential until proven is just that, potential, but Cossa and ASP both have high end/elite potential. Kasper/Danielson both look like good two way centers who will, at worst, stick in the NHL as role players.

And then you look at a team like Colorado. After getting ROR and Barrier outside the first round in 2009, their drafting outside the first round has been absolute shit. Granted, Detroit doesn't have a MacKinnon or a Makar in their organization.

Colorado's drafting outside of the top 10 & 1st round has been shit, you are 100% correct. They made some great trades and undervalued UFA pickups to get them over the top in addition to their top end guys. Vegas was an expansion team and got super aggressive to improve their roster via trade & UFA. Florida has historically been the worst at developing talent in the A, so Zito pivoted to getting super aggressive to fill holes instead of getting complacent & being hopeful about middling to meh younger prospects.

In general though, you do need to hit on some non 1st round picks to put you over the top to get a Cup or Cups plural. Dating back to the Red Wings 2008 Cup, here are some 2nd-7th round picks that were integral to Cup wins:

Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Letang, Byfuglien, Keith, Bolland, Hjalmarsson, Brouwer, Marchand, Bergeron, Krejci, Lucic, Voynov, King, Martinez, Quick, Clifford, Crawford, Saad, Shaw, Toffoli, Rust, Murray, Guentzel, Holtby, Stephenson, Parayko, Edmundson, Dunn, Barbashev, Binnington, Point, Kucherov, Palat, Cirelli, Killorn, Joseph, Colton, Hague.

Like I said, being aggressive in trades & UFA is very important as well, and you obviously need to hit on your 1st rounders, but you do need to hit some doubles if not outright monster tank home runs to help you over the top, at least in most cases.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Colorado's drafting outside of the top 10 & 1st round has been shit, you are 100% correct. They made some great trades and undervalued UFA pickups to get them over the top in addition to their top end guys. Vegas was an expansion team and got super aggressive to improve their roster via trade & UFA. Florida has historically been the worst at developing talent in the A, so Zito pivoted to getting super aggressive to fill holes instead of getting complacent & being hopeful about middling to meh younger prospects.

In general though, you do need to hit on some non 1st round picks to put you over the top to get a Cup or Cups plural. Dating back to the Red Wings 2008 Cup, here are some 2nd-7th round picks that were integral to Cup wins:

Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Letang, Byfuglien, Keith, Bolland, Hjalmarsson, Brouwer, Marchand, Bergeron, Krejci, Lucic, Voynov, King, Martinez, Quick, Clifford, Crawford, Saad, Shaw, Toffoli, Rust, Murray, Guentzel, Holtby, Stephenson, Parayko, Edmundson, Dunn, Barbashev, Binnington, Point, Kucherov, Palat, Cirelli, Killorn, Joseph, Colton, Hague.

Like I said, being aggressive in trades & UFA is very important as well, and you obviously need to hit on your 1st rounders, but you do need to hit some doubles if not outright monster tank home runs to help you over the top, at least in most cases.

I didn't even bother evaluating Vegas simply because it's hard to compare how that team was built to any established team. I forgot to look at Florida's drafting but I didn't recall any major later round picks. Where Florida benefits is from having what is probably the best pro scouting staff in the league. They've turned a lot of waiver trash into treasure.

I think, in general, 1st round picks get you on top, while later round picks keep you there. In other words, if you can pick well in the 1st you can build a contender, but if you don't want your window to slam shut quickly, you're gonna need to draft well outside the 1st round, because those picks are either gonna be low or you're gonna be selling them off to add immediate help. And I do wonder if Detroit is nearing "Sell your 1sts" territory. Probably not in 2025, (Definitely not if they stay this bad) but I can see 2026 or 2027.

Hopefully Detroit has some hits in Buchelnikov/Mazur/Augustine. Wallinder will not be a top pairing D, but he also wont need to be.

 

[Hockeyville USA]

I didn't even bother evaluating Vegas simply because it's hard to compare how that team was built to any established team. I forgot to look at Florida's drafting but I didn't recall any major later round picks. Where Florida benefits is from having what is probably the best pro scouting staff in the league. They've turned a lot of waiver trash into treasure.

I think, in general, 1st round picks get you on top, while later round picks keep you there. In other words, if you can pick well in the 1st you can build a contender, but if you don't want your window to slam shut quickly, you're gonna need to draft well outside the 1st round, because those picks are either gonna be low or you're gonna be selling them off to add immediate help. And I do wonder if Detroit is nearing "Sell your 1sts" territory. Probably not in 2025, (Definitely not if they stay this bad) but I can see 2026 or 2027.

Hopefully Detroit has some hits in Buchelnikov/Mazur/Augustine. Wallinder will not be a top pairing D, but he also wont need to be.

Like I said, Florida has been the worst prospect development organization in the league since they came in (look at their draft history & the results from those players), so Zito decided it was time to pivot strategies and get super aggressive in order to win. And yes, as you said their pro scouting has been elite.

It's looking more likely that Wallinder is nothing special at all, but I'll wait a bit longer to make sure of that.

 

[FriendlyGhost92]

Like I said, Florida has been the worst prospect development organization in the league since they came in (look at their draft history & the results from those players), so Zito decided it was time to pivot strategies and get super aggressive in order to win. And yes, as you said their pro scouting has been elite.

It's looking more likely that Wallinder is nothing special at all, but I'll wait a bit longer to make sure of that.

I didn't mean Wallinder would be a significant player, but he wont really need to be. Edvinsson is the top guy on the left side and nobody's taking that spot. If they have options between AlJo/Wallinder/Buium, they'll be just fine. They can grab a 2LHD via trade or UFA. (Though we don't exactly have the best track record with UFA defensemen)