TSN: What's holding up Kopitar's new contract? (MOD WARNING) post #205

[KINGS17]

You gave us a link with all his stats and no context; in fact, most of them showed consistency.

Why in the hell are you using icorsi? Do you even know what that is, and why most people look at overall corsi or corsi rel? THAT is your metric for his decline?

I'm sorry, you're getting ridiculous. Using icorsi instead of just about every other commonly accepted measure of player value is literally looking for reasons to dislike someone/cheapen their performance. I can do that for almost any player in the league, if you wish. Especially given that you think less goals/more assists is bad.

Edit: and of course he's 'declining' when you're comparing 82 game sample sizes with 1/4 a season.

Here, for this season, where he's awful, #3 in the entire NHL, the Kings are directing nearly 60% of all shot attempts towards the opposing net with terrible ass Kopitar on the ice. http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...750&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

You're right Brad, Kopitar has been amazing. Absolutely no reason to be concerned with giving him $72M+ over the next eight years after this season. I am sure it will all work out.

Looking forward to Kopitar leading the Kings to 4 or 5 more cups. His 50 or so points a season will be well worth every penny. I can see now that Dean has no other recourse other than to bend over for Brisson.

 

[Jeff18]

Dude calm down. Dean will pay Kopitar what he pays him (or doesn't pay him) by the end of this season. Really no point in arguing or even discussing for more than a couple posts. It's an opinion.

 

[Fishhead]

You gave us a link with all his stats and no context; in fact, most of them showed consistency.

Why in the hell are you using icorsi? Do you even know what that is, and why most people look at overall corsi or corsi rel? THAT is your metric for his decline?

I'm sorry, you're getting ridiculous. Using icorsi instead of just about every other commonly accepted measure of player value is literally looking for reasons to dislike someone/cheapen their performance. I can do that for almost any player in the league, if you wish. Especially given that you think less goals/more assists is bad.

iCorsi is probably a very useful stat in this case. It isn't perfect, because CF60 is also very useful to see how effective a player is at generating shots for his line as a whole. Kopitar has been very consistent for the last 5 years or so, he's always right around 60 for CF60, and always one of the top on the team in that category. That's pretty damn good.

This is what's concerning though:

iCorsi/60

07-08 - 11.3
08-09 - 14.6
09-10 - 14.3
10-11 - 14.5
11-12 - 13.8
12-13 - 11
13-14 - 12
14-15 - 9.8
15-16 - 8.2

The biggest problem with this lack of generating shots for himself is this:

Points/60

07-08 - 1.67
08-09 - 1.88
09-10 - 1.76
10-11 - 2.69
11-12 - 2.07
12-13 - 2.04
13-14 - 1.95
14-15 - 1.83
15-16 - 1.12

His production trends the same as his iCorsi fairly closely, which is heading the wrong way and has been for a few years. Kopitar is a great passer, but he's dominant when he's generating shots. That's what the team needs from him.

Kopitar is deferring more and more to his teammates, despite absolutely knowing he needs to shoot more. In my opinion, he's too unselfish. He is so freakin good defensively that he can easily take more risks and still be a selke type guy.

It should also be noted that even though Kopitar is playmaking more than ever, his Assists/60 is abysmal so far this year at .37. His worst previous year was .88, and the rest .99 and above. Small sample size and all, but still alarming. It should normalize a little, but if he has his typical mid-year slump it's a problem.

I'm not as concerned with giving Kopitar an 8 year contract as some, he absolutely needs to be re-signed. It might sound ludicrous now, but if trends continue he's going to be a $9M+ defensive specialist in 4-5 years time. I'm fine with that, as the windows going to be closed, but there isn't a single metric that points towards his production leveling out - it's all trending down. That's expected, but the rate is concerning.

I don't think it's a physical thing either, I think it's completely between the ears. If someone can get him to get back to a shoot first kind of guy, he could easily be near a ppg for the next 4 or so seasons without sacrificing his defense.

It's fun analyzing players and their worth, but it's likely all moot as he's going to sign for 8 years and the team will sink or swim with him going forward.

 

[Frolov 6'3]

Why dont we sit back and just watch what is going to happen. After that we can discuss it.

 

[damacles1156]

Ok, Thread Open

I cleanup the last four or so pages of garbage you guys left.

WARNING:

No more drive by, or one liner filler junk. Debate, discuss the context of the post, knock off the personal stuff.

Continue.

 

[KINGS17]

Dude calm down. Dean will pay Kopitar what he pays him (or doesn't pay him) by the end of this season. Really no point in arguing or even discussing for more than a couple posts. It's an opinion.

Why dont we sit back and just watch what is going to happen. After that we can discuss it.

Jeff and Fro,

I think you guys are right. This thread only gets active again when Kopitar scores a goal or gets a few points, and those few games are used to promote the idea that Kopitar should get close to what Brisson is asking for, and that he has turned it around.

It is probably best to wait until a deal is signed or more time has passed, or additional comments are made by people in the media about the contract negotiations.

 

[Minor Boarding]

Jeff and Fro,

I think you guys are right. This thread only gets active again when Kopitar scores a goal or gets a few points, and those few games are used to promote the idea that Kopitar should get close to what Brisson is asking for, and that he has turned it around.

It is probably best to wait until a deal is signed or more time has passed, or additional comments are made by people in the media about the contract negotiations.

Maybe Brisson is asking for the money, based on Kopitars career - he lead the Kings in scoring every year since basically he entered the league...

That said, I believe that losing Kopitar for whathaveyou (Johansen, Staal, Webber...) or futures means the Kings cup contending for the next few years would be over...

 

[Captain Mittens*]

Maybe Brisson is asking for the money, based on Kopitars career - he lead the Kings in scoring every year since basically he entered the league...

That said, I believe that losing Kopitar for whathaveyou (Johansen, Staal, Webber...) or futures means the Kings cup contending for the next few years would be over...

Kopitar was overpaid for several years of his second contract since he didn't sign a bridge. Unfortunately ,from the sounds of it, Brisson wants that to continue in the final years of his deal instead of of taking one for the team

 

[Minor Boarding]

Kopitar was overpaid for several years of his second contract since he didn't sign a bridge. Unfortunately ,from the sounds of it, Brisson wants that to continue in the final years of his deal instead of of taking one for the team

Kopitar made comparable to Stastny, Thornton... and less then E. Stall, Nash,... He had two playoff PPG performances (leading the team/league in basically every category) that brought two Stanley Cups to Los Angeles. He didn't exactly have an all star support either for the first half of his 2nd contract with Smyth, Penner, Brown.. as his line mates.

 

[damacles1156]

Not going to warn you guys again about the personal shots, KNOCK IT OFF.

I am going to start thread banning, and handing out infractions.

 

[KINGS17]

Maybe Brisson is asking for the money, based on Kopitars career - he lead the Kings in scoring every year since basically he entered the league...

That said, I believe that losing Kopitar for whathaveyou (Johansen, Staal, Webber...) or futures means the Kings cup contending for the next few years would be over...

Maybe this is a bad idea (see Dustin Brown contract). Maybe those in favor of the kind of deal you advocate can give us some salary cap projections and what the Kings roster looks like with Kopitar making $10M a season in a couple of years when Toffoli, and other young players need new contracts.

That would maybe help your argument a bit if you could show how that would work and maintain the Kings' standing as cup contenders, or are we just supposed to watch Kopi in his rocking chair for 5 or 6 years?

I have posted a lot of information and data on why I think $80M for Kopitar over 8 years is a bad idea. Maybe you can tell us in detail why you think it's a good idea going forward. Maybe even start with next year's roster with a cap that increases by around 5% (it may not even do that).

 

[Basilisk]

Maybe a deal with the Avs? Something around Kopi & picks/prospects for Duchene & a top 4 defenseman? The Avs are weak right now and might succumb to a "panic" maneuver. In those instances, the stronger team usually wins the trade.....

 

[theMajor]

the Kings need a top C however you want to paint and Duchene is not that guy. the Kings FO % is killing us this year (bottom 6 in NHL) due to the drop off after Carts and Kopi. I dont think Dean has any easy choice one way or the other in regards to Kopi. he either pays him a little more than he wants (which he will get as a FA) or lets him walk and eats the fact that the Kings dont have a bonafide #1 C (or Carts gets moved up to the first line and then we have no #2 C). its a ****** situation either way and will probably be the hardest decision Dean has made yet

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

iCorsi is probably a very useful stat in this case. It isn't perfect, because CF60 is also very useful to see how effective a player is at generating shots for his line as a whole. Kopitar has been very consistent for the last 5 years or so, he's always right around 60 for CF60, and always one of the top on the team in that category. That's pretty damn good.

This is what's concerning though:

iCorsi/60

07-08 - 11.3
08-09 - 14.6
09-10 - 14.3
10-11 - 14.5
11-12 - 13.8
12-13 - 11
13-14 - 12
14-15 - 9.8
15-16 - 8.2

The biggest problem with this lack of generating shots for himself is this:

Points/60

07-08 - 1.67
08-09 - 1.88
09-10 - 1.76
10-11 - 2.69
11-12 - 2.07
12-13 - 2.04
13-14 - 1.95
14-15 - 1.83
15-16 - 1.12

His production trends the same as his iCorsi fairly closely, which is heading the wrong way and has been for a few years. Kopitar is a great passer, but he's dominant when he's generating shots. That's what the team needs from him.

Kopitar is deferring more and more to his teammates, despite absolutely knowing he needs to shoot more. In my opinion, he's too unselfish. He is so freakin good defensively that he can easily take more risks and still be a selke type guy.

It should also be noted that even though Kopitar is playmaking more than ever, his Assists/60 is abysmal so far this year at .37. His worst previous year was .88, and the rest .99 and above. Small sample size and all, but still alarming. It should normalize a little, but if he has his typical mid-year slump it's a problem.

I'm not as concerned with giving Kopitar an 8 year contract as some, he absolutely needs to be re-signed. It might sound ludicrous now, but if trends continue he's going to be a $9M+ defensive specialist in 4-5 years time. I'm fine with that, as the windows going to be closed, but there isn't a single metric that points towards his production leveling out - it's all trending down. That's expected, but the rate is concerning.

I don't think it's a physical thing either, I think it's completely between the ears. If someone can get him to get back to a shoot first kind of guy, he could easily be near a ppg for the next 4 or so seasons without sacrificing his defense.

It's fun analyzing players and their worth, but it's likely all moot as he's going to sign for 8 years and the team will sink or swim with him going forward.

Fantastic response, thank you. That makes more sense than "see, he's shooting less."

The only thing I really disagree on is that we have incomplete data on 15-16 so far, and even if it's a 'trend,' that's such a steep dropoff that doesn't really match the eye test that I'm willing to temporarily overlook it since his whole line is still flat-out dominant. I think it'll correct a bit.

I also agree he needs to take more risks, but I'm worried that's been beaten out of him; often you'll see guys from other teams come here and still try those centering passes (lucic) and other things, but those go away eventually. My biggest qualm with our current system is that it favors possession/order over things like that, which is a problem because you need to keep the D honest somehow; if you're never driving the net or throwing the puck there to a guy's stick, they'll just perimeter you, and we know how comfortable Kopitar can get with that. I just saw encouraging things with Kopi cutting to the middle though, he's done that more in the last few games than all of last year imo.

Maybe this is a bad idea (see Dustin Brown contract). Maybe those in favor of the kind of deal you advocate can give us some salary cap projections and what the Kings roster looks like with Kopitar making $10M a season in a couple of years when Toffoli, and other young players need new contracts.

That would maybe help your argument a bit if you could show how that would work and maintain the Kings' standing as cup contenders, or are we just supposed to watch Kopi in his rocking chair for 5 or 6 years?

I have posted a lot of information and data on why I think $80M for Kopitar over 8 years is a bad idea. Maybe you can tell us in detail why you think it's a good idea going forward. Maybe even start with next year's roster with a cap that increases by around 5% (it may not even do that).

To the first paragraph, that's actually not a bad idea to change the tone of the discussion.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

You're right Brad, Kopitar has been amazing. Absolutely no reason to be concerned with giving him $72M+ over the next eight years after this season. I am sure it will all work out.

Looking forward to Kopitar leading the Kings to 4 or 5 more cups. His 50 or so points a season will be well worth every penny. I can see now that Dean has no other recourse other than to bend over for Brisson.

That's not at all what I was saying, and I'm getting tired of the responses dripping with sarcasm. Feel free to disagree like a grown-up or just ignore me.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

This thread reminds me a bit of the Richards situation last year but obviously the circumstances are much different.

I think pretty much everyone agrees that paying Kopitar $10M is going to sting but I think most of us also recognize that is probably the best option. You can float wild trade scenarios and pretend they are realistic but unless someone with smidgeon of credibility floats a rumor or plausible scenario, it’s just fantasy. It’s one of the reasons I never go on the proposals board. Fans generally have a very skewed view of the trade market and often way off base in what a particular player may or may not fetch. The bottom line is it takes two to tango and the idea that the Kings can simply move Kopitar to another team and insert a new player and continue to compete is probably more unrealistic than it is realistic.

 

[King'sPawn]

I agree with Buddy, even though I don't think Kopitar gets $10/year.

Slightly overpaying your franchise selke caliber center long term is a better option than letting him walk or trading him away for uncertainties for the future.

 

[gnarls barkley]

the money part doesn't even matter really

where do you get another 1C? they don't exactly just fall from the sky, look at teams like MIN, STL, NSH - wanna be stuck in that perpetual mediocrity? You think there are just a bunch of legit guys out on the block waiting for the highest bidder? No one gives up a real 1C unless they get something really REALLY tangible back (aka huge overpayment), and further more, no team who fancies themselves a contender should think of dealing their 1C mid-season. That leaves the dumpster fire teams.

let's take a look here:

TOR - Kadri or Bozak, both significant downgrades.
BUF - would not trade Eichel or Reinhart, just signed ROR
FLA - would not trade Barkov
PHI - would not trade Giroux or Couturier
CAR - sure, if you want to overpay Eric Staal instead of Kopitar
CBJ - would want too much for Johansen, who isn't even signed to a LTC, and already proven to want a huge deal later on anyways, bringing us back to vast overpayment
WPG - Little or Scheifele, both downgrades
COL - they wouldn't trade MacKinnon, and I don't think Duchene would be worth the asking price
CGY - Monahan? not worth it
EDM - RNH would likely be only trade target, and I can't see them moving him without a top 4 D coming back...and we don't have a surplus of that either.



so you either overpay and keep your legit 1C, or you overpay and gamble on another guy. Not seeing why this is even a debate still.

 

[Ziggy Stardust]

Ultimately, guys like Kopitar don't come around easily. How often are centers of his ilk moved? The Kings don't have a future Kopitar coming up the ranks, they won't be in a position to draft a player of that caliber any time soon, and I think he still has at least 5-6 more productive years in him.

I would hope he ages gracefully like Datsyuk has. He's gotten off to slow starts the past couple of seasons, but I wonder if that is a reflection of the majority of the team, of which Kopitar is a huge part of.

Lombardi won't be foolish enough to get into a squabble and lose one of the pillars of his team.

 

[Jeff18]

Jeff and Fro,

I think you guys are right. This thread only gets active again when Kopitar scores a goal or gets a few points, and those few games are used to promote the idea that Kopitar should get close to what Brisson is asking for, and that he has turned it around.

It is probably best to wait until a deal is signed or more time has passed, or additional comments are made by people in the media about the contract negotiations.

And I agree with you. We definitely should not be throwing money at him because of a few good games. Even if he has a great season this year, the Kings org needs to look at the bigger picture, such as using the the stats you posted to determine his worth.

The worst case scenario is a declining Kopitar having a nasty contract that we can't get rid of, similar to the Richards situation, which would really suck. We'll see what happens as the season progresses.

 

[gnarls barkley]

And I agree with you. We definitely should not be throwing money at him because of a few good games. Even if he has a great season this year, the Kings org needs to look at the bigger picture, such as using the the stats you posted to determine his worth.

The worst case scenario is a declining Kopitar having a nasty contract that we can't get rid of, similar to the Richards situation, which would really suck. We'll see what happens as the season progresses.

but the worst case scenario doesn't matter, 4-5 years out doesn't matter because our cup window is NOW

it's nothing like the Richards situation because we acquired Richards specifically to put us over the top and win while we already had basically everything else in place. And we can play revisionist history on his overall impact, but at the end of the day Richards was a big part in TWO cup wins, and I still believe Dean pulls the trigger on trading for Richards 10 out of 10 times for that reason alone.

4-5 years out is a completely different team, and a team that is almost certainly in rebuild mode and not cup contender mode. At that point who cares what we're paying anyone, it's a completely different mindset and set of business priorities. And if we are somehow a top contender still, then you can bet your ass that Dean will have pulled a lot of other black magic in that time period to make potentially unfavorable contracts work in the team structure regardless. Remember, cap space means nothing if you're not actually using that money for quality assets.

 

[driller1]

Ultimately, guys like Kopitar don't come around easily. How often are centers of his ilk moved? The Kings don't have a future Kopitar coming up the ranks, they won't be in a position to draft a player of that caliber any time soon, and I think he still has at least 5-6 more productive years in him.

Lombardi won't be foolish enough to get into a squabble and lose one of the pillars of his team.

but the worst case scenario doesn't matter, 4-5 years out doesn't matter because our cup window is NOW

it's nothing like the Richards situation because we acquired Richards specifically to put us over the top and win while we already had basically everything else in place. And we can play revisionist history on his overall impact, but at the end of the day Richards was a big part in TWO cup wins, and I still believe Dean pulls the trigger on trading for Richards 10 out of 10 times for that reason alone.

4-5 years out is a completely different team, and a team that is almost certainly in rebuild mode and not cup contender mode. At that point who cares what we're paying anyone, it's a completely different mindset and set of business priorities. And if we are somehow a top contender still, then you can bet your ass that Dean will have pulled a lot of other black magic in that time period to make potentially unfavorable contracts work in the team structure regardless. Remember, cap space means nothing if you're not actually using that money for quality assets.

Agree 100% with these sentiments here. No doubt Kopitar won't be worth $10M in years 6-8 of his contract, but who cares. Carter will be 36 years old and past his prime by that time. We don't have any 18 year olds who look remotely in the same league as those two as our 1-2 Center punch.

Load up and overpay -- do whatever it takes to make a cup run in the next 3-4 years. Don't aim for mediocrity where you have a roster that can make the playoffs but not win the Cup. Go all in and then tank super hard.

 

[KingsFan7824]

the Kings need a top C however you want to paint and Duchene is not that guy. the Kings FO % is killing us this year (bottom 6 in NHL) due to the drop off after Carts and Kopi. I dont think Dean has any easy choice one way or the other in regards to Kopi. he either pays him a little more than he wants (which he will get as a FA) or lets him walk and eats the fact that the Kings dont have a bonafide #1 C (or Carts gets moved up to the first line and then we have no #2 C). its a ****** situation either way and will probably be the hardest decision Dean has made yet

There's a drop off after Shore and Kopitar. Carter is at 46.5%. Both Lewis and Andreoff shouldn't be taking faceoffs. It's also been a few years since Kopitar was as low as 51.4%.

But yeah, Lombardi basically has no choice in this, for a number of reasons. He pretty much has to sign Kopitar, and you live with whatever happens, good or bad.

 

[theMajor]

There's a drop off after Shore and Kopitar. Carter is at 46.5%. Both Lewis and Andreoff shouldn't be taking faceoffs. It's also been a few years since Kopitar was as low as 51.4%.

But yeah, Lombardi basically has no choice in this, for a number of reasons. He pretty much has to sign Kopitar, and you live with whatever happens, good or bad.

Carts has been hovering near 52% since he became a King so I feel that his numbers will even out, but the point still stands. when you really only have two dependable centers (the Kings used to be fairly stacked at C), you dont let one of them, arguably your best one, walk. it puts you in a worse position than overpaying would and its not really debatable. do you want 9m of cap space or do you want to contend for the cup over the course of the next 4-5 seasons?

 

[mrkolice]

but the worst case scenario doesn't matter, 4-5 years out doesn't matter because our cup window is NOW

some good posts, 100% agree. this team is blooming now, lak is again a top contender and winning another cup should be a priority, now. kopi's temporary market value doesn't change this equation much, but losing him it does.

just compare the situation today to something like 6 months ago, and it's getting better almost every game. just enjoy it. cheerz.