TSN: What's holding up Kopitar's new contract? (MOD WARNING) post #205

[Raccoon Jesus]

When you're ready to discuss Kopitar's 5-on-5 play let me know. Yes, he had two assists, one a gift from Seabrook, and one during 3-on-3 play on a pass that he or any player in the Kings top six better be able to make.

He didn't drive play in the offensive zone 5-on-5, and he hasn't for quite some time. And know, he isn't playing "great" hockey as of late. He has been opportunistic, which is great, but Kopitar still is providing 1C play in the offensive zone. I wasn't posting in the GDT, yet others can see it. Maybe you should fence with them. I hope Kopitar finds his groove again 5-on-5, but I doubt that he will do it.

BTW, that was a hell of a nice play on Kane's goal.

...dude.

Kopitar was a 62.07% CF% last night against Chicago and is at 57.9% on the season, good for 10th in the league amongst players with 10 games or more. He was, just like the playoffs, also matched up with Toews all night last night and came out on top.

Let US know when you're done trying to cheapen every single one of his points and can just enjoy when he's doing things well.

 

[KINGS17]

...dude.

Kopitar was a 62.07% CF% last night against Chicago and is at 57.9% on the season, good for 10th in the league amongst players with 10 games or more. He was, just like the playoffs, also matched up with Toews all night last night and came out on top.

Let US know when you're done trying to cheapen every single one of his points and can just enjoy when he's doing things well.

Let me know when every play he makes that he should make isn't an argurment for why Kopitar deserves the contract he and his agent are seeking?

I have never said Kopitar sucks. He isn't worth the money that is being asked for though, and it will damage the Kings starting next season. Kopitar is great at possessing the puck along the offensive zone boards though, so you're right about that.

Go back to last night's GDT, or just about any GDT for that matter. It's not just me being critical of his play. Plenty of others see it as well.

 

[Ron*]

Let me know when every play he makes that he should make isn't an argurment for why Kopitar deserves the contract he and his agent are seeking?

I have never said Kopitar sucks. He isn't worth the money that is being asked for though, and it will damage the Kings starting next season. Kopitar is great at possessing the puck along the offensive zone boards though, so you're right about that.

Go back to last night' GDT, or just about any GDT for that matter. It's not just me being critical of his play. Plenty of others see it as well.

See the bolded part.

You are dead wrong here, and you know it. The market determines his worth, and he is indeed getting paid, whether it's here or elsewhere.

And much to your chagrin, he's getting paid here. So why don't you just move on? You are single-handedly keeping this thread from going to page 2, where it belongs.

 

[KINGS17]

See the bolded part.

You are dead wrong here, and you know it. The market determines his worth, and he is indeed getting paid, whether it's here or elsewhere.

And much to your chagrin, he's getting paid here. So why don't you just move on? You are single-handedly keeping this thread from going to page 2, where it belongs.

Did the market for tulips determine their true worth? Toews and Kane are overpaid based on what has happened with the growth of the salary cap. Other players are overpaid as well with a guy like Kesler being the prime example.

Dean being equally stupid or misinformed doesn't help the Kings. I have no doubt that some dumb GM would give Kopitar what he is seeking. It would be a mistake on their part.

But hey, if you are happy seeing the Kings pay an AAV of over $9M for eight seasons after this one for 50-point production, you will be in the minority in short order.

If you don't like reading the opinions expressed in this thread, why don't you move on?

 

[damacles1156]

Kopitar is getting back to normal with all his metrics, except 5v5 production.

I think a lot of that though(atm), has to do with just how bad Gabo has been. Gaborik is just awful 5v5.

Kopitar is doing the correct things 5v5, except shoot the puck on net. If Kopitar want's to hit 70 point this year, shoot the puck a lot more on net.

Cause Gabo is just awful 5v5. Pearson is just kind of there (atm), struggling playing elite defenders. Kopitar needs to take it upon himself to force the issue more 5v5.

 

[mrkolice]

Slovenian forums lately: fans are glad, but not ecstatic, both about kopi and lak, stuff as usual i guess. no one is really worried about the contract. a lot of positives for marian waking up.

 

[KINGS17]

Slovenian forums lately: fans are glad, but not ecstatic, both about kopi and lak, stuff as usual i guess. no one is really worried about the contract. a lot of positives for marian waking up.

Geez, I want him to succeed!!! A few points doesn't mean he is doing the right things in his approach to the game to be a player that is worth $9M+ AAV.

This is not some kind of personal vendetta for me. I simply recognize all the signs of a player that is in decline offensively, and that's okay because it happens to almost every single NHL player approaching the other side of 30 years of age. Just don't ask the organization to pay you stupid money, that's all.

The Kings can continue to be contenders with Carter and Kopitar as 1A/1B centers, but they are going to need to add some depth down the middle to make up for Kopitar's declining offensive production. He simply is not going to be a 70-point/season player going forward. Dean can't get that depth if he is handcuffed by Kopitar making over $9M a season.

Kopitar is getting back to normal with all his metrics, except 5v5 production.

I think a lot of that though(atm), has to do with just how bad Gabo has been. Gaborik is just awful 5v5.

Kopitar is doing the correct things 5v5, except shoot the puck on net. If Kopitar want's to hit 70 point this year, shoot the puck a lot more on net.

Cause Gabo is just awful 5v5. Pearson is just kind of their (atm), struggling playing elite defenders. Kopitar needs to take it upon himself to force the issue more 5v5.

This is my concern as well, and when he doesn't which is a real possibility, should Dean give him $72M+ anyway? No.

Further evidence for those that cannot trust their own eyes:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=24

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Let me know when every play he makes that he should make isn't an argurment for why Kopitar deserves the contract he and his agent are seeking?

I have never said Kopitar sucks. He isn't worth the money that is being asked for though, and it will damage the Kings starting next season. Kopitar is great at possessing the puck along the offensive zone boards though, so you're right about that.

Go back to last night's GDT, or just about any GDT for that matter. It's not just me being critical of his play. Plenty of others see it as well.

You said "He didn't drive play in the offensive zone 5-on-5, and he hasn't for quite some time." That was a flat-out lie.

There's being critical, then there's driving an agenda. Come off it.

 

[KINGS17]

You said "He didn't drive play in the offensive zone 5-on-5, and he hasn't for quite some time." That was a flat-out lie.

There's being critical, then there's driving an agenda. Come off it.

Sorry Brad, but if you want to see how Kopitar is capable of driving the play in the offensive zone and what he needs to do in order to be worth a $9M+ AAV go back and look at the 2014 San Jose series.

Kopitar isn't playing like that, and hasn't for some time. The only "agenda" I have is wanting Kopitar on a reasonable deal AAV-wise so the team can continue to contend. I don't think that the Kings are real contenders with Kopitar playing at his current level with an AAV of over $9M.

Click the link I provided, Kopitar's play is declining 5-on-5, and likely in most other situations as well. Those numbers don't "lie" and neither do I. He didn't create scoring chances last night. He was handed one by Seabrook and made made a nice pass in the 3-on-3 game. If you can't see the difference between Carter's game ad Kopitar's game, what's your agenda?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Sorry Brad, but if you want to see how Kopitar is capable of driving the play in the offensive zone and what he needs to do in order to be worth a $9M+ AAV go back and look at the 2014 San Jose series.

Kopitar isn't playing like that, and hasn't for some time. The only "agenda" I have is wanting Kopitar on a reasonable deal AAV-wise so the team can continue to contend. I don't think that the Kings are real contenders with Kopitar playing at his current level with an AAV of over $9M.

Click the link I provided, Kopitar's play is declining 5-on-5, and likely in most other situations as well. Those numbers don't "lie" and neither do I. He didn't create scoring chances last night. He was handed one by Seabrook and made made a nice pass in the 3-on-3 game. If you can't see the difference between Carter's game ad Kopitar's game, what's your agenda?

The thing is, not many (any?) people are arguing his actual worth going forward is 9 million a year; they're just realistic about what it takes to sign him vs. our ability to contend now. So, as much as you'll like to, you won't get to say "i told you so" because you're arguing against a false pretense.

Remember yesterday when you were giving me **** about 'oh, but that doesn't fit the narrative?' That's exactly what happened above. The 5v5 numbers are rounding back towards his career norms. It's okay to admit it, just like it's fine to admit his production is coming down. I also don't see what Carter being awesome and better than ever has to do with Kopitar, and you never queried me with that, so no agenda here; Carter is literally doing more this year than Kopitar almost EVER has so that's just a red herring in this case. Quit moving the goalposts, quit being combative, and let's just continue to have an honest discussion.

****, I mean, if we're going to overanalyze every player's points, Patrick Kane only got a goal on a silver platter last night and a gimme assist, he must suck, because he was invisible otherwise, right?

 

[Kings4thecup]

Sorry Brad, but if you want to see how Kopitar is capable of driving the play in the offensive zone and what he needs to do in order to be worth a $9M+ AAV go back and look at the 2014 San Jose series.

Kopitar isn't playing like that, and hasn't for some time. The only "agenda" I have is wanting Kopitar on a reasonable deal AAV-wise so the team can continue to contend. I don't think that the Kings are real contenders with Kopitar playing at his current level with an AAV of over $9M.

Click the link I provided, Kopitar's play is declining 5-on-5, and likely in most other situations as well. Those numbers don't "lie" and neither do I. He didn't create scoring chances last night. He was handed one by Seabrook and made made a nice pass in the 3-on-3 game. If you can't see the difference between Carter's game ad Kopitar's game, what's your agenda?

If Kopitar played like that at all times, he would be a 12M+ player.

 

[KINGS17]

The thing is, not many (any?) people are arguing his actual worth going forward is 9 million a year; they're just realistic about what it takes to sign him vs. our ability to contend now. So, as much as you'll like to, you won't get to say "i told you so" because you're arguing against a false pretense.

Remember yesterday when you were giving me **** about 'oh, but that doesn't fit the narrative?' That's exactly what happened above. The 5v5 numbers are rounding back towards his career norms. It's okay to admit it, just like it's fine to admit his production is coming down. I also don't see what Carter being awesome and better than ever has to do with Kopitar, and you never queried me with that, so no agenda here; Carter is literally doing more this year than Kopitar almost EVER has so that's just a red herring in this case. Quit moving the goalposts, quit being combative, and let's just continue to have an honest discussion.

****, I mean, if we're going to overanalyze every player's points, Patrick Kane only got a goal on a silver platter last night and a gimme assist, he must suck, because he was invisible otherwise, right?

Kane did not have a good game last night. After his goal he damn near disappeared.

I am having an honest discussion. Kopitar at $9M+ AAV severely damages the Kings roster starting next season and going forward after that. The Kings will not be serious contenders with Kopitar playing as he has over the last 100 games plus, and losing the valuable experience and depth it takes to win due to his higher AAV.

The cap is not going up. The Kings will lose at least a couple of roster players due to Kopitar's contract. Dean won't be able to move Brown or any other bad contract because he won't be able to retain much in the way of salary cap.

Again, look at the link provided that shows Kopitar's 5-on-5 performance over the years. He is following the exact same pattern as other NHL players that had their production drop off after age 30. There is no goal post moving, Kopitar's production has declined and is not that of a 1C at this time, and his numbers 5-on-5 are NOT rounding back to his career norms. He is way down in shots, 1st assists, and goals per 60 minutes of play.

 

[KINGS17]

If Kopitar played like that at all times, he would be a 12M+ player.

True, but 50% of the time is not too much to ask. The point is he hasn't really come close to that level for around 100 games. His 5-on-5 play is declining. All of the numbers bear that out.

 

[Buddy The Elf]

If Kopitar magically has a career year statistically this year, does that still mean he is on the decline? I'm curious because I think he has been playing well. While I wouldn't bet on that to happen, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibly. He does have ten points in the past 13 games.

 

[KINGS17]

If Kopitar magically has a career year statistically this year, does that still mean he is on the decline? I'm curious because I think he has been playing well. While I wouldn't bet on that to happen, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibly. He does have ten points in the past 13 games.

I would say it is less than a 5% chance of happening. He will have his hot spots, but he will slump again because as the numbers 5-on-5 show, he isn't doing the things necessary to improve over the long haul.

Let's be honest, a few of his recent points have been gift wrapped by the opposition. Can you remember the last time Kopitar really drove to the net more than once in a game? Often it is several games between 1C-like drives to the net.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

I would say it is less than a 5% chance of happening. He will have his hot spots, but he will slump again because as the numbers 5-on-5 show, he isn't doing the things necessary to improve over the long haul.

Let's be honest, a few of his recent points have been gift wrapped by the opposition. Can you remember the last time Kopitar really drove to the net more than once in a game? Often it is several games between 1C-like drives to the net.

His 5v5 numbers are trending up, just like they did last year after a slow start; You're snapshotting numbers at a career low. What does he need to do to improve, in your opinion? You're relying heavily on shots alone which I pointed out declined with Gaborik's arrival...

A few of his recent points were the result of forechecking, hard work, and bad luck correcting...seabrook didnt set it up on a tee for him, he still had to find gaborik with a great pass. Youre overstating that and yes, goalscoring takes some luck, and you don't get primary assists if the guys you're passing to aren't finishing. I recall him driving to the net hard more than once last night, and that's something I saw going to the TB game.

 

[KINGS17]

His 5v5 numbers are trending up, just like they did last year after a slow start; You're snapshotting numbers at a career low. What does he need to do to improve, in your opinion? You're relying heavily on shots alone which I pointed out declined with Gaborik's arrival...

A few of his recent points were the result of forechecking, hard work, and bad luck correcting...seabrook didnt set it up on a tee for him, he still had to find gaborik with a great pass. Youre overstating that and yes, goalscoring takes some luck, and you don't get primary assists if the guys you're passing to aren't finishing. I recall him driving to the net hard more than once last night, and that's something I saw going to the TB game.

His 5-on-5 numbers from last season were a career low by substantial amounts. How many games does it take to make a trend. Yes, he has warmed up a bit recently. Recent history tells us he will cool off again.

I am not relying on shots alone. Look at the link. Kopitar is down in all major categories of 5-on-5 play over the last 100 games.

 

[Thrice]

His 5-on-5 numbers from last season were a career low by substantial amounts. How many games does it take to make a trend. Yes, he has warmed up a bit recently. Recent history tells us he will cool off again.

I am not relying on shots alone. Look at the link. Kopitar is down in all major categories of 5-on-5 play over the last 100 games.

Lombardi has access to all of those numbers along with a slew of custom in-house metrics and with all of that in mind he's reportedly offered him upwards of 9+ Million for at least 7 years. Why?

Do you honestly believe that he's never considered that Kopitar isn't going to produce like he when he was 25 or do you think that he's interested in sabotaging the team moving forward?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

His 5-on-5 numbers from last season were a career low by substantial amounts. How many games does it take to make a trend. Yes, he has warmed up a bit recently. Recent history tells us he will cool off again.

I am not relying on shots alone. Look at the link. Kopitar is down in all major categories of 5-on-5 play over the last 100 games.

As a total? Yes. But again, that ignores that after a slow start, from November on, he was the same ol Kopitar.

You're right on a season level, my point is only to point out that outside of TWO MONTHS in 2014, Kopitar was producing at the exact same level as throughout his career. BUt it's very simple to say "he's declining, look at last year's totals."

I'm not in denial that from here on out he's more likely to recede than shoot up, but it's an example of misinterpreting statistics, imo. No, you can't remove those two months altogether, they're part of the bigger picture--it's much more concerning to me that he's dropped off THAT level to the start of this season--but in my opinion, I'm not seeing anything dramatically alarming in his play RIGHT NOW. He's come back closer to normal, from what I see.

I saw some posters on LAKI speculate that, like last year, he was working through a nagging injury to start the season; you pointed out that you think he wasn't in shape. For whatever reason, the Kopitar we've seen in the last week+ is better than the Game 1 Kopitar, I think we can all agree on that--the question is just is he the guy from the first two months of last season, or the end? Closer to his career trends, or the aberrations? It is really tough to say, to be honest, and in watching him play lately, I don't get the sense that he's as bad as those numbers suggest. He looks like he's on the verge of blowing right up.

 

[Trolfoli]

I saw some posters on LAKI speculate that, like last year, he was working through a nagging injury to start the season

"Nagging Injury" = Getting stuck with Brown/Lewis to start the season.

-Any thread involving Kopitar's new contract should have "Don't Panic" written in the title in large letters. That could solve some issues.

-Trading Kopitar and finding a replacement that makes the Kings a serious contender is probably going to be more difficult then signing Kopitar and cutting some of the dead weight. Dead weight... you know who you are.

-Serious Contender: As long as 2 of 3 of Lewis/Shore/Brown play 3rd line or above this team is not a serious contender. Maybe Brown remembers how to play hockey, maybe Shore breaks out offensively (unlikely with his line mates), but as long as those 3 are the black holes of offense this team is not a serious contender.

-Lewis: What happened to Lewis? I can't remember the last time he got a breakaway. He's not going to convert, but it seemed like he'd get 2-3 per game.

 

[Ron*]

"Nagging Injury" = Getting stuck with Brown/Lewis to start the season.

-Any thread involving Kopitar's new contract should have "Don't Panic" written in the title in large letters. That could solve some issues.

-Trading Kopitar and finding a replacement that makes the Kings a serious contender is probably going to be more difficult then signing Kopitar and cutting some of the dead weight. Dead weight... you know who you are.

-Serious Contender: As long as 2 of 3 of Lewis/Shore/Brown play 3rd line or above this team is not a serious contender. Maybe Brown remembers how to play hockey, maybe Shore breaks out offensively (unlikely with his line mates), but as long as those 3 are the black holes of offense this team is not a serious contender.

-Lewis: What happened to Lewis? I can't remember the last time he got a breakaway. He's not going to convert, but it seemed like he'd get 2-3 per game.

Why does it matter if Lewis gets a breakaway? When was the last time he actually scored on a breakaway?

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

Feel free to tell the Central Division we're not a serious contender while you're mourning TL's lack of breakaways.

 

[Rusty Batch]

His 5-on-5 numbers from last season were a career low by substantial amounts. How many games does it take to make a trend. Yes, he has warmed up a bit recently. Recent history tells us he will cool off again.

I am not relying on shots alone. Look at the link. Kopitar is down in all major categories of 5-on-5 play over the last 100 games.

He had the best 5 on 5 corsi in the entire league last year... oh I know that doesn't fit your narrative so you will ignore it. But maybe Kopitar is the best puck possesion player in the nhl? Maybe that's what he tries to accomplish when he's on the ice? And maybe that plays a big role in why the kings have won 2 cups?
I wonder why Kopitar's puck possesion game is overlooked by you? Do you not find his corsi stats incredibly impressive?

 

[KINGS17]

He had the best 5 on 5 corsi in the entire league last year... oh I know that doesn't fit your narrative so you will ignore it. But maybe Kopitar is the best puck possesion player in the nhl? Maybe that's what he tries to accomplish when he's on the ice? And maybe that plays a big role in why the kings have won 2 cups?
I wonder why Kopitar's puck possesion game is overlooked by you? Do you not find his corsi stats incredibly impressive?

This would make a nice story if only it were true.

icorsi for 2014-2015 all 5-on-5:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...id=0&type=individual&sort=icorsi&sortdir=DESC

In fact the following Kings players were ahead of Kopitar in 5-on-5 icorsi last season:

Doughty
Carter
Brown
Toffoli
Muzzin
Williams
Gaborik
Lewis
Clifford
King

Where does Kopitar actually rank in the NHL in 5-on-5 icorsi in 2014-15? 235th

Look, for those that care to READ I gave you his individual analytic stats for each year of his career. He is declining in every category over the last couple of seasons. IT'S A FACT. Sorry, but he isn't what he used to be.

 

[Raccoon Jesus]

This would make a nice story if only it were true.

icorsi for 2014-2015 all 5-on-5:

http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...id=0&type=individual&sort=icorsi&sortdir=DESC

In fact the following Kings players were ahead of Kopitar in 5-on-5 icorsi last season:

Doughty
Carter
Brown
Toffoli
Muzzin
Williams
Gaborik
Lewis
Clifford
King

Where does Kopitar actually rank in the NHL in 5-on-5 icorsi in 2014-15? 235th

Look, for those that care to READ I gave you his individual analytic stats for each year of his career. He is declining in every category over the last couple of seasons. IT'S A FACT. Sorry, but he isn't what he used to be.

You gave us a link with all his stats and no context; in fact, most of them showed consistency.

Why in the hell are you using icorsi? Do you even know what that is, and why most people look at overall corsi or corsi rel? THAT is your metric for his decline?

I'm sorry, you're getting ridiculous. Using icorsi instead of just about every other commonly accepted measure of player value is literally looking for reasons to dislike someone/cheapen their performance. I can do that for almost any player in the league, if you wish. Especially given that you think less goals/more assists is bad.

Edit: and of course he's 'declining' when you're comparing 82 game sample sizes with 1/4 a season.

Here, for this season, where he's awful, #3 in the entire NHL, the Kings are directing nearly 60% of all shot attempts towards the opposing net with terrible ass Kopitar on the ice. http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...750&teamid=0&type=corsi&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC